AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Landslide Lyndon]

McSally being craven and heartless:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/12/19/roberts-martha-mcsally-running-flakes-senate-seat-mccains/963501001/

This could backfire bigly. If not because just ceding the nomination for the Flake seat to KKKelli Ward would probably tank Republican chances in both seats.

It's becoming pretty obvious that McSally is waiting for McCain to die and then the governor to appoint her to his seat. There is no other credible excuse as to why she doesn't jump into the primary against Ward and allows her to consolidate the field.
Of course I don't know how happy that makes McConnell and the rest of the establishment who might see Chemtrail Kelli winning the primary and pissing away another seat.

[Pollster]

Wow. McSally is truly awful at posturing, to the point that she deserves to lose.

2018 really looks like it could wreck the AZ GOP for generations.

[Webnicz]

I was planning on making a post a few days ago to update but it appears I was beat to it.

It was being reported a couple weeks ago that McNally was having "the worst campaign roll out in history" , it has been over a month now since she expressed interest in the senate.
It all makes sense now, knowing she hasn't announced because she is actually eyeing McCains seat, something she should have been doing all along.

I suppose it could be the case that McCain has told McSally that he plans to resign soon, causing a special election in November along with Flake's seat. I say this because at the same time McSally has declined going to any of the AZ02 candidate forums, unusual for an incumbent in such a competitive district.

[Cactus Jack]

Wow. McSally is truly awful at posturing, to the point that she deserves to lose.

2018 really looks like it could wreck the AZ GOP for generations.

Pretty much. Between Ward, McSally, and Arpaio - not to mention Ducey's complete inability to triangulate - next year might legitimately be the AZGOP's deathblow.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I was planning on making a post a few days ago to update but it appears I was beat to it.

It was being reported a couple weeks ago that McNally was having "the worst campaign roll out in history" , it has been over a month now since she expressed interest in the senate.
It all makes sense now, knowing she hasn't announced because she is actually eyeing McCains seat, something she should have been doing all along.

I suppose it could be the case that McCain has told McSally that he plans to resign soon, causing a special election in November along with Flake's seat. I say this because at the same time McSally has declined going to any of the AZ02 candidate forums, unusual for an incumbent in such a competitive district.

McCain isn't resigning. As a matter of fact Arizona Republicans are hoping he can survive until August when it will be too late to call a special election and his appointed successor will stay until the 2020 election.

[Webnicz]

I was planning on making a post a few days ago to update but it appears I was beat to it.

It was being reported a couple weeks ago that McNally was having "the worst campaign roll out in history" , it has been over a month now since she expressed interest in the senate.
It all makes sense now, knowing she hasn't announced because she is actually eyeing McCains seat, something she should have been doing all along.

I suppose it could be the case that McCain has told McSally that he plans to resign soon, causing a special election in November along with Flake's seat. I say this because at the same time McSally has declined going to any of the AZ02 candidate forums, unusual for an incumbent in such a competitive district.

McCain isn't resigning. As a matter of fact Arizona Republicans are hoping he can survive until August when it will be too late to call a special election and his appointed successor will stay until the 2020 election.

is this Accurate? he was just re elected in 2016, I would think his replacement would still have to undergo a special election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I was planning on making a post a few days ago to update but it appears I was beat to it.

It was being reported a couple weeks ago that McNally was having "the worst campaign roll out in history" , it has been over a month now since she expressed interest in the senate.
It all makes sense now, knowing she hasn't announced because she is actually eyeing McCains seat, something she should have been doing all along.

I suppose it could be the case that McCain has told McSally that he plans to resign soon, causing a special election in November along with Flake's seat. I say this because at the same time McSally has declined going to any of the AZ02 candidate forums, unusual for an incumbent in such a competitive district.

McCain isn't resigning. As a matter of fact Arizona Republicans are hoping he can survive until August when it will be too late to call a special election and his appointed successor will stay until the 2020 election.

is this Accurate? he was just re elected in 2016, I would think his replacement would still have to undergo a special election.

The special will be in 2020 and then the regular in 2022.

[Webnicz]

Well that didn't go well for McSally, Ducey has now disqualified her from appointment basically. Now she will HAVE to face Sinema in 2018 if she wants to fulfill her senate dreams. Or she will have to wait for a special election. She really should not have told her house colleagues those plans.

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/943314510386937856

[TheSaint250]

Well that didn't go well for McSally, Ducey has now disqualified her from appointment basically. Now she will HAVE to face Sinema in 2018 if she wants to fulfill her senate dreams. Or she will have to wait for a special election. She really should not have told her house colleagues those plans.

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/943314510386937856

That was a good call on Ducey's part

[Cactus Jack]

Even by AZGOP standards, this has been an absolute clown car. McSally puts a whole new spin on pathetic.

[MAINEiac4434]

Well that didn't go well for McSally, Ducey has now disqualified her from appointment basically. Now she will HAVE to face Sinema in 2018 if she wants to fulfill her senate dreams. Or she will have to wait for a special election. She really should not have told her house colleagues those plans.

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/943314510386937856

That was a good call on Ducey's part

Let’s be clear here...this also helps Ducey’s re-election plans.

But still, nice job Doug.

[TheSaint250]

Well that didn't go well for McSally, Ducey has now disqualified her from appointment basically. Now she will HAVE to face Sinema in 2018 if she wants to fulfill her senate dreams. Or she will have to wait for a special election. She really should not have told her house colleagues those plans.

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/943314510386937856

That was a good call on Ducey's part

Let’s be clear here...this also helps Ducey’s re-election plans.

But still, nice job Doug.

Can't we give politicians the benefit of the doubt sometimes

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well that didn't go well for McSally, Ducey has now disqualified her from appointment basically. Now she will HAVE to face Sinema in 2018 if she wants to fulfill her senate dreams. Or she will have to wait for a special election. She really should not have told her house colleagues those plans.

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/943314510386937856

That was a good call on Ducey's part

Let’s be clear here...this also helps Ducey’s re-election plans.

But still, nice job Doug.

Can't we give politicians the benefit of the doubt sometimes

Yeah, it was a good move by Ducey regardless of his motive.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well that didn't go well for McSally, Ducey has now disqualified her from appointment basically. Now she will HAVE to face Sinema in 2018 if she wants to fulfill her senate dreams. Or she will have to wait for a special election. She really should not have told her house colleagues those plans.

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/943314510386937856

Assuming he actually plans to follow through on this, major props to Ducey for showing a little bit of basic human decency.  Obviously still wouldn't vote for him, but it's still nice to see folks surprise you by doing the right thing every now and then.

[Cactus Jack]

Are we all still sure that this rules out McSally and isn't just saving face for Ducey to not appoint Kelli Ward and innoculate him from any wing-nut wrath?

Ducey would never appoint McSally in any case. His having a shred of integrity doesn't change the fact that he's a a Tea Party businessman and lowkey Trumpist at heart, considerably to the right of what I consider to be the AZGOP veteran base (McCain, McSally, etc.). If anyone, I'd expect him to appoint Biggs or DeWit.

[The Other Castro]

All McSally had to do to get a Senate seat was literally nothing. Congrats, McSally.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So we pretty much all agree that Senator Sinema is likely come January 2019?

[IceSpear]

All McSally had to do to get a Senate seat was literally nothing. Congrats, McSally.

[Bidenworth2020]

So we pretty much all agree that Senator Sinema is likely come January 2019?

ugh. wish it was staunton.

[Cactus Jack]

So we pretty much all agree that Senator Sinema is likely come January 2019?

ugh. wish it was staunton.

The issue with Stanton is that he's very much of the Clinton/Kaine mold - that is, boring as dick. Sinema is a political centrist herself, but she's at least got charisma.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I really hate talking about this issue but it can't be ignored but if McCain does pass away before November and both seats are up. Who is the likely noms in those races and what are the odds of spilting ticket vs a dems picking up both

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I really hate talking about this issue but it can't be ignored but if McCain does pass away before November and both seats are up. Who is the likely noms in those races and what are the odds of spilting ticket vs a dems picking up both

Splitting senators would be extremely unlikely. Hasn't happened since 1966 and there was far more ticket splitting back then.

That said, I fully expect both parties to have contingency plans ready for the McCain seat. It'd be stupid not to. I hope Dems don't settle on Stanton. He does seem really boring without a moving story

Nah, Stanton's a really strong candidate, much better than Sinema as a matter of fact.

[Cactus Jack]

I really hate talking about this issue but it can't be ignored but if McCain does pass away before November and both seats are up. Who is the likely noms in those races and what are the odds of spilting ticket vs a dems picking up both

Splitting senators would be extremely unlikely. Hasn't happened since 1966 and there was far more ticket splitting back then.

That said, I fully expect both parties to have contingency plans ready for the McCain seat. It'd be stupid not to. I hope Dems don't settle on Stanton. He does seem really boring without a moving story

Nah, Stanton's a really strong candidate, much better than Sinema as a matter of fact.

He looks that way on paper, but he really is desperately uninspiring. Plus, there have been mayoral-level issues the Republicans could easily use against him. Gallego and Friese would both do better, I think.

[Hindsight was 2020]

What about Mark Kelly?

[Cactus Jack]

What about Mark Kelly?

He'd be a no-brainer, but I don't think Kelly is interested in anything other than his family at this point.