AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Oryxslayer]

DROP WHAT YOU ARE DOING

while this seems weird, this actually happened.

Dewit and Brnovich had a coin toss, Dewit's tweet suggest Brnovich won

https://twitter.com/JeffDeWitAZ/status/923618821801250816

Election candidates have been decided by stranger things. Well Arizonans, is Brnovich stronger then Dewit? Will he push Ward aside?

[Cactus Jack]

McSally will lose to Sinema.

This is exactly why she should wait for mccain's seat

I think that's what she wants. I also think that only DeWit can beat Sinema. McSally also would have trouble in a primary, the Trumpists aren't going to like a moderate, McCain-loving warmonger. But she may announce just so donors know she's running for Senate, and switch to the other seat once McCain croaks (nobody will admit to it now, but I'm almost certain hell croak pretty soon). I also think that Stanton is planning to run for that seat, but announced for AZ-09 so he could create a federal account.

Atlas seriously overestimates DeWit. Nobody in Ducey's administration is a bright bulb, and DeWit is no exception.

[Webnicz]

DROP WHAT YOU ARE DOING

while this seems weird, this actually happened.

Dewit and Brnovich had a coin toss, Dewit's tweet suggest Brnovich won

https://twitter.com/JeffDeWitAZ/status/923618821801250816

Election candidates have been decided by stranger things. Well Arizonans, is Brnovich stronger then Dewit? Will he push Ward aside?

Im not quite sure, I hardly thought his "consideration" was serious. What I will say is Ward has built a sizable following among AZGOP primary voters, despite how crazy she is. Take a look back at what Jeff Flake said about not running, that he would not be able to win the primary. It is very possible that he had internal polling that was not released that showed him trailing ward by double digits, meaning her following is so large its beating Flake's internal numbers. I expect her unshakeable base to be around 35%, then Brnovich and McSally(who is the sole member from the AZ delegation to have yet to make up her mind) could split the remainder. As I have stated before, Ward is being taken more seriously this time around by voters, she now has a more polished image(I assume she went to charm school,I do notice a difference in her image), and appears on Fox News regularly where as in '16 she was forbidden.

I also will say- AG's make fantastic senate candidates.

[Cactus Jack]

DeWit and Brnovich are on opposite ends of the scale here. DeWit is the only pol in Arizona I could see with a chance of beating Ward, but Sinema would walk right through him just the same as all the other hard-righties in the state. Brnovich, on the other hand, is a vastly better, more widely-appealing GE candidate (he made headlines not long ago for suing the Arizona Board of Regents for hiking tuitions for no good reason), but there's not a chance in hell he makes it through Ward's Great Wall of Trumpists, especially if McSally runs and splits the vote of relative sanity.

There's another issue here, too. While Brnovich would probably do a lot to shave away Sinema's base of moderates and independents, Kamala has it right: Ward's ungodly coalition of Trumpists, Tea Partiers, and doomsday prep types are all exactly the sort of voters who would completely sit out the general election if their candidate were to lose the primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DeWit and Brnovich are on opposite ends of the scale here. DeWit is the only pol in Arizona I could see with a chance of beating Ward, but Sinema would walk right through him just the same as all the other hard-righties in the state. Brnovich, on the other hand, is a vastly better, more widely-appealing GE candidate (he made headlines not long ago for suing the Arizona Board of Regents for hiking tuitions for no good reason), but there's not a chance in hell he makes it through Ward's Great Wall of Trumpists.

There's an idea: build the wall by stationing those who support it to guard the border.  Solves multiple problems at once.

[Oryxslayer]

DeWit and Brnovich are on opposite ends of the scale here. DeWit is the only pol in Arizona I could see with a chance of beating Ward, but Sinema would walk right through him just the same as all the other hard-righties in the state. Brnovich, on the other hand, is a vastly better, more widely-appealing GE candidate (he made headlines not long ago for suing the Arizona Board of Regents for hiking tuitions for no good reason), but there's not a chance in hell he makes it through Ward's Great Wall of Trumpists, especially if McSally runs and splits the vote of relative sanity.

There's another issue here, too. While Brnovich would probably do a lot to shave away Sinema's base of moderates and independents, Kamala has it right: Ward's ungodly coalition of Trumpists, Tea Partiers, and doomsday prep types are all exactly the sort of voters who would completely sit out the general election if their candidate were to lose the primary.

Similarly, if Brnovich is going in, it probably means McSally doesn't. I still stand by my theory that McCain will stand aside for her at the end of the year, in order to influence his successor and ensure she has some incumbency - all while preventing her from getting defeated in a competitive house race in 2018. They both would share the same base, so Ward would easily waltz past the divided opposition.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Historically speaking, when both senate seats from a state are up in the same year, they tend to vote for the same party. McCain stepping aside, forcing a 2018 special for that seat, would present a high risk for two democratic senators from Arizona, which with Nevada, would get dems 3 of the 4 pickups they need in 2018 (I am working off the assumption that McCaskill loses). I think McCain knows better than to retire, at least not this cycle.

[IceSpear]

If McSally or DeWit runs, Dems are probably in a slightly worse position than they were here before Flake's retirement. They're obviously both stronger candidates than Flake/Ward, though they're not guaranteed to get through the primary.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Historically speaking, when both senate seats from a state are up in the same year, they tend to vote for the same party. McCain stepping aside, forcing a 2018 special for that seat, would present a high risk for two democratic senators from Arizona, which with Nevada, would get dems 3 of the 4 pickups they need in 2018 (I am working off the assumption that McCaskill loses). I think McCain knows better than to retire, at least not this cycle.

Whether McCain wants to retire or not is largely irrelevant given his life expectancy.

I expect him to stay on until he dies

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Historically speaking, when both senate seats from a state are up in the same year, they tend to vote for the same party. McCain stepping aside, forcing a 2018 special for that seat, would present a high risk for two democratic senators from Arizona, which with Nevada, would get dems 3 of the 4 pickups they need in 2018 (I am working off the assumption that McCaskill loses). I think McCain knows better than to retire, at least not this cycle.

Whether McCain wants to retire or not is largely irrelevant given his life expectancy.

I expect him to stay on until he dies

Ok, and he's likely to die before the 2018 midterms, so I'm not understanding the relevance of why you had to bring up the question of whether he'd decide on his own accord to retire after the 2018 cycle.

Basically, if he survives the 2018 cycle, he may retire in 2019 since it won't create a situation where both senate seats are up at the same time. If he is destined to not make it to the 2018 midterms though, he will go out via death, not retirement.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Could we please not be so crass when discussing John McCain's illness?


I understand we are suppose to talk about elections and such, but when we reach the point of weighing the likelihood of someone dying before or after an election, to gauge its impact, that goes a little too far.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

McSally will lose to Sinema.

This is exactly why she should wait for mccain's seat

I think that's what she wants. I also think that only DeWit can beat Sinema. McSally also would have trouble in a primary, the Trumpists aren't going to like a moderate, McCain-loving warmonger. But she may announce just so donors know she's running for Senate, and switch to the other seat once McCain croaks (nobody will admit to it now, but I'm almost certain hell croak pretty soon). I also think that Stanton is planning to run for that seat, but announced for AZ-09 so he could create a federal account.

I may not be a fan of Sinema, but she’d beat DeWit like a red-headed stepchild.

[Cactus Jack]

McSally will lose to Sinema.

This is exactly why she should wait for mccain's seat

I think that's what she wants. I also think that only DeWit can beat Sinema. McSally also would have trouble in a primary, the Trumpists aren't going to like a moderate, McCain-loving warmonger. But she may announce just so donors know she's running for Senate, and switch to the other seat once McCain croaks (nobody will admit to it now, but I'm almost certain hell croak pretty soon). I also think that Stanton is planning to run for that seat, but announced for AZ-09 so he could create a federal account.

I may not be a fan of Sinema, but she’d beat DeWit like a red-headed stepchild.

I can vouch for this. Ward, at least, is more insane and spiteful than she is stupid - she has a certain species of bizarro charisma and intelligence, which is why she has the narrowest of opportunities to win the seat outright. DeWit, on the other hand, has none of the above; he's a boring idiot.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Could we please not be so crass when discussing John McCain's illness?


I understand we are suppose to talk about elections and such, but when we reach the point of weighing the likelihood of someone dying before or after an election, to gauge its impact, that goes a little too far.

I'm not going to apologize when what I wrote was quite obviously not meant in malice and when there are much worse things said by actual politicians on a regular basis about McCain, including the President from your party.

Two wrongs do not make a right.

[RogueBeaver]

McSally leaning towards running, but worried about gifting Kirkpatrick her seat. Plus Team Bannon is vowing total war. Salmon is fielding calls, IMO it'd be better for him to run for Class I and McSally gets appointed to Class III when McCain dies.

[TheSaint250]

McSally leaning towards running, but worried about gifting Kirkpatrick her seat. Plus Team Bannon is vowing total war. Salmon is fielding calls, IMO it'd be better for him to run for Class I and McSally gets appointed to Class III when McCain dies.

Any word on DeWit?

[RogueBeaver]

DeWit seems happier in Phoenix. Schweikert wants to run for governor in 2022.

[TheSaint250]

DeWit seems happier in Phoenix. Schweikert wants to run for governor in 2022.

Ok thank you!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is going to be a disaster of epic proportions if this is what the establishment rolls with. McSally will lose to Ward and then she would not be able to run for McCain's seat.


The Republicans have got to stop trying to beat this down and adapt by running someone who can truly unite the party, including Trumpist border hawks.

I hope Salmon taking calls moves towards Salmon getting in. He is the best shot to unite the party, win the primary and hold the seat in the general.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Cactus Jack]

And here we see why Flake bowing out had the potential to open up an electoral catastrophe for Republicans.

[The Other Castro]

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lolwut

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

And here we see why Flake bowing out had the potential to open up an electoral catastrophe for Republicans.

There is no greater electoral catastrophe historically, then the Republican establishment riding the flaming wreck of the Hindenburg all the way to the ground backing flawed incumbents.

Had Dick Lugar retired, there never would have been Mourdock as the nominee, nor Donnelly as Senator.

[Cactus Jack]

And here we see why Flake bowing out had the potential to open up an electoral catastrophe for Republicans.

There is no greater electoral catastrophe historically, then the Republican establishment riding the flaming wreck of the Hindenburg all the way to the ground backing flawed incumbents.

Had Dick Lugar retired, there never would have been Mourdock as the nominee, nor Donnelly as Senator.

You can't know that for sure. The Tea Party was powerful at that time, and Ward's meteoric rise recently shows that it still has a hold in Arizona as well. Flake's retirement has put the AZGOP establishment in an even worse position than it was in already (which, believe me, is no mean feat), because all of their big-name options are either just as weak as Flake or even worse.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

And here we see why Flake bowing out had the potential to open up an electoral catastrophe for Republicans.

There is no greater electoral catastrophe historically, then the Republican establishment riding the flaming wreck of the Hindenburg all the way to the ground backing flawed incumbents.

Had Dick Lugar retired, there never would have been Mourdock as the nominee, nor Donnelly as Senator.

You can't know that for sure. The Tea Party was powerful at that time, and Ward's meteoric rise recently shows that it still has a hold in Arizona as well. Flake's retirement has put the AZGOP establishment in an even worse position than it was in already (which, believe me, is no mean feat), because all of their big-name options are either just as weak as Flake or even worse.

I disagree with that assessment. Flake was never going to win the primary and he was not going to win the general election either.