AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Cactus Jack]

WOW WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

I check this forum 3 times a day to see if it has any new post as I love discussing local politics. The ONE DAY I was flying home from Florida when news broke, landed, phone died, when I recharged it and read my can notification I screamed because I needed more information asap.

I hope I don't kill the thread for the night as I usually do

but my input is I GUARANTEE Mcsally makes an announcement within the next 48 hours. She's the only one with the fundraising numbers.

Wouldn't she struggle in a primary though

That's putting it lightly. She's unobtrusive, but that translates to being boring, and as I stated previously Trump will never endorse her.

[Webnicz]

WOW WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

I check this forum 3 times a day to see if it has any new post as I love discussing local politics. The ONE DAY I was flying home from Florida when news broke, landed, phone died, when I recharged it and read my can notification I screamed because I needed more information asap.

I hope I don't kill the thread for the night as I usually do

but my input is I GUARANTEE Mcsally makes an announcement within the next 48 hours. She's the only one with the fundraising numbers.

Wouldn't she struggle in a primary though

she does have an outstanding military record, GOP base loves that. BUT, Kelli Ward's following has grown MASSIVE, do not underestimate that lady and her followers just bc she held 1 downhill on chemtrails.

Ward has had ALL the momentum and this could really help her even more.

She's the strongest possible challenger to Sinema, but the problem is she has ZERO name rec in the PHX metro allowing Sinema to be able to define her first, like what Mccains did to Kirky in '16. So I still Give Sinema the edge, more now than ever.

With McSally in, her seat tilts D (Hopefully for Heinz)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I never thought I could get so annoyed by reading the posts of someone else who would call themselves "far-right" and then I read the posts in this thread!  Who cares about immigration and populism when there are actual fiscal and social issues to worry about?  My worry isn't who wants to build a wall the most, but who wants to stop abortion the most and cut taxes the most!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I never thought I could get so annoyed by reading the posts of someone else who would call themselves "far-right" and then I read the posts in this thread!  Who cares about immigration and populism when there are actual fiscal and social issues to worry about?  My worry isn't who wants to build a wall the most, but who wants to stop abortion the most and cut taxes the most!

Your priorities are more traditionally "far right", but the other group doesn't define it the same way you do.  This kind of sums up the internal stresses within the GOP.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I never thought I could get so annoyed by reading the posts of someone else who would call themselves "far-right" and then I read the posts in this thread!  Who cares about immigration and populism when there are actual fiscal and social issues to worry about?  My worry isn't who wants to build a wall the most, but who wants to stop abortion the most and cut taxes the most!

A lot of people who have a pro-life litmus test have it in a "necessary but not sufficient" category - they won't vote for a pro-choicer, but they'd rather stay home or vote third party over voting for someone who is say, pro-amnesty despite being pro-life. This is nothing new.

[Webnicz]

Christine Jones is coming to mind.... she basically runs for everything that opens up in AZ (btw the 2016 CD5 GOP primary is ICONIC as media outlets called the race for Jones, everyone went to bed thinking that than two weeks later BAM Biggs wins by 16 votes, thanks for listening to my stroll along memory lane)

[Cactus Jack]

WOW WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

I check this forum 3 times a day to see if it has any new post as I love discussing local politics. The ONE DAY I was flying home from Florida when news broke, landed, phone died, when I recharged it and read my can notification I screamed because I needed more information asap.

I hope I don't kill the thread for the night as I usually do

but my input is I GUARANTEE Mcsally makes an announcement within the next 48 hours. She's the only one with the fundraising numbers.

Wouldn't she struggle in a primary though

she does have an outstanding military record, GOP base loves that. BUT, Kelli Ward's following has grown MASSIVE, do not underestimate that lady and her followers just bc she held 1 downhill on chemtrails.

Ward has had ALL the momentum and this could really help her even more.

She's the strongest possible challenger to Sinema, but the problem is she has ZERO name rec in the PHX metro allowing Sinema to be able to define her first, like what Mccains did to Kirky in '16. So I still Give Sinema the edge, more now than ever.

With McSally in, her seat tilts D (Hopefully for Heinz)

If Sinema really wanted to rat, she could just run ads in the stupid party's primary thanking McSally for refusing to support Trump against Hillary, and to stand strong against far right Kelli Ward

That is exactly the sort of thing Sinema would actually do.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

It will be interesting to see if Flake now starts publicly criticizing Trump the way Corker has.

I believe he does. I think Flake knows he wasn't gonna win so he'd save himself from further embarrassment. I think he's gonna start teasing a 2020 bid if Kasich doesn't. He already kind of is.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It will be interesting to see if Flake now starts publicly criticizing Trump the way Corker has.

I believe he does. I think Flake knows he wasn't gonna win so he'd save himself from further embarrassment. I think he's gonna start teasing a 2020 bid if Kasich doesn't. He already kind of is.

Blanched if he did, Blanched if he didn't. Flake is so appalled by Trump's behavior that he only votes with him 95% of the time. When you play to both sides, you end up pleasing no one. Let that be a lesson.

[NewYorkExpress]

Congratulations Senator Kirkpatrick.

[Oryxslayer]

WOW WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT

I check this forum 3 times a day to see if it has any new post as I love discussing local politics. The ONE DAY I was flying home from Florida when news broke, landed, phone died, when I recharged it and read my can notification I screamed because I needed more information asap.

I hope I don't kill the thread for the night as I usually do

but my input is I GUARANTEE Mcsally makes an announcement within the next 48 hours. She's the only one with the fundraising numbers.

Wouldn't she struggle in a primary though

she does have an outstanding military record, GOP base loves that. BUT, Kelli Ward's following has grown MASSIVE, do not underestimate that lady and her followers just bc she held 1 downhill on chemtrails.

Ward has had ALL the momentum and this could really help her even more.

She's the strongest possible challenger to Sinema, but the problem is she has ZERO name rec in the PHX metro allowing Sinema to be able to define her first, like what Mccains did to Kirky in '16. So I still Give Sinema the edge, more now than ever.

With McSally in, her seat tilts D (Hopefully for Heinz)

The problem with McSally is that she seems like the natural heir to McCain. Her fundraising does match what is needed statewide, however she clearly didn't know Flake was going to resign a month a go when she was raising that money. She is waiting for McCain to leave the Seante, at which point she is appointed and then (in her mind) hopefully reelected.

Arguably, this is the problem with a lot of the more right wing big names as well. ward already has their normal position in this election, so why not wait for a chance at the McCain seat?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Congratulations Senator Kirkpatrick.

?

[NewYorkExpress]

Congratulations Senator Kirkpatrick.

?

Whoops...I'm thinking of 2016, aren't I... that should read, Senator Simena.

[Young Conservative]

I am seeing Arizona operatives praise Gosar, Dewitt, and Graham. Gosar was out previously, but flake's decision to flake could change that. Any of these candidates would beat Ward and more easily defeat Sinema.

[Sir Mohamed]

My profound respect for Jeff Flake. I might disagree with him on most issues, but at least he has shown backbone. Now let's win the seat, Democrats!

[Cactus Jack]

I am seeing Arizona operatives praise Gosar, Dewitt, and Graham. Gosar was out previously, but flake's decision to flake could change that. Any of these candidates would beat Ward and more easily defeat Sinema.

Gosar is an asshole, Graham is a goofball, and DeWit has the personality and intellect of a fish.

In other words, no.

[Gustaf]

Given Flake's poor primary polling this does seem like an improvement for the GOP. Though I guess in terms of signalling value it's bad.

If it was gonna be Ward v Sinema either way, having it be Ward without a long, nasty primary first seems clearly preferable to Republicans. As is the chance of getting a better candidate than either Flake or Ward. I'd be kinda surprised if Flake's resignation isn't following some sort of deal with another candidate.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Okay first off on Jeff Flake. I used to watch Jeff Flake in the House. He was a brilliant fighter against the corruption and earmarking process and he got screwed out of being on the appropriations committee by John Boehner, because of it. I had a lot of respect for and admired him, but I always knew he was weak on immigration and I preferred that Jon Kyl's replaced be someone be someone was strong on fiscal conservatism and borders. Flake had strong support from the libertarian community as well.

However, once he got to the Senate, he alienated all the groups that supported and he basically just lost whatever kind of base he might have had. Libertarians didn't like his votes on defense matters, fiscal conservatives thought he didn't do enough to control spending, border hawks were always mad at him over immigration.

Flake was thus a weak candidate all along, and Ward ran last time and so had a name ID boost from that. I have long said that the establishment too often rallies around flawed incumbents and rides their burning airplane all the way to the ground either in the primary to an extremist to who loses the election or in the general itself. This has happened countless times.

Now since everyone is ready to organize Ward's coronation and by extension Sinema's, I will point out 2 things myself that actually have a legitimate bearing on this.
1. It is October 2017, no one has momentum and the only ones paying attention are small in number.
2. There is definitely a GA-06 factor going on here. In that you had a number of people that didn't vote for Trump that are basically Republicans, who will vote for a relatively normal Republican candidate.

The biggest group of the latter category, would be college educated whites and especially, Mormon College educated whites. This would also be a good time to point out the fact that Clinton did not get a higher % than Democrats have routinely gotten over the last 20 years in Arizona (43%-45%). Clinton got 44%.  4% voted for the Libertarian Gary Johnson.


AZ - 06 (Previously Numbered the 5th, held by Schweikert who won 62% in 2016).
2016   President   Trump 52 - 42%
2012   President   Romney 60 - 39%
2008   President   McCain 61 - 38%
2004   President   Bush 64 - 35%
2000   President   Bush 61 - 37%

Now I am not saying they won't be open to voting for Sinema, but the fact remains that Democrats have to get above the mid 40's and have struggled significantly to do that in the last 20 years.

So now I will give my list of people who I think would be favored to win in most all circumstances in both the primary and the general election.

1. Matt Salmon - He ruled it out when Flake was still running. But he is someone who is solid on fiscal issues, he has a good record of supporting border security and he should able to get libertarian support as well. Salmon would unite all the factions of the party, he is a Mormon himself and would thus rally the College Educated White Mormons who defected from Trump. Ironically being Mormon was blamed for his narrow loss for Governor in 2002 since it was claimed some Evangelicals refused to vote for him.

2. David Schweikert - Would also unite all the factions. He has been in tough races before, losing in 2008 and then winning in 2010. And he got many voters in his district that did not vote for Trump.

3. Jeff DeWitt - I am less familiar with him but he is also someone who could get Trumpist support and be capable of winning the General election.

This is still Arizona and while future trends bode well for the Democrats in this state, this is now, not 10 years from now. Depending on the candidate and events, Sinema might indeed win, but I think people are making a mistake seeing Arizona and thinking it is an easy win for the Democrats.

Until I see who jumps in post Flake's departure, the only possible rating for this seat is going to be Tilt or Lean R.

Dems have a much better shot in Nevada.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I am seeing Arizona operatives praise Gosar, Dewitt, and Graham. Gosar was out previously, but flake's decision to flake could change that. Any of these candidates would beat Ward and more easily defeat Sinema.

Gosar and Graham would get absolutely destroyed.  DeWitt is a Trumpist IIRC and I’m not super impressed with him as a candidate.  Honestly, I think Gosar might very well lose by more than Flake would have had he been nominated.

[Nyvin]

I am seeing Arizona operatives praise Gosar, Dewitt, and Graham. Gosar was out previously, but flake's decision to flake could change that. Any of these candidates would beat Ward and more easily defeat Sinema.

Gosar is a nutcase and would probably do a lot worse than Ward.

He wanted to impeach the EPA chief for basically doing her job a few years ago,  even Kevin McCarthy had to call him out on it.

And there's this recently:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

All of Gosar’s siblings have signed a letter condemning him in pretty blunt terms for his use of anti-Semitic dog whistles.

[RogueBeaver]

Gosar is out.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This race is Sinema's no matter who the Republican nominee is.

[The Other Castro]

Schweikert doesn't sound like he's running.

Mike DeBonis‏ @mikedebonis
SCHWEIKERT plays down potential for Senate run. 'I'm not sure I have the burn, the passion,' he says.

Mike DeBonis @mikedebonis
Replying to @mikedebonis
Says AZ GOP delegation will be meeting tomorrow to have "family conversation" about the race.

https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/923250973937750021

[Heisenberg]

Gosar is out.

I wonder if the letter had anything to do? Also, do you think Ward would have dropped down to run for AZ-04 if Gosar ran for Senate?

All of Gosar’s siblings have signed a letter condemning him in pretty blunt terms for his use of anti-Semitic dog whistles.

One of his brothers, Pete, is a former Wyoming Democratic Party Chairman, and was the 2014 nominee for WY-GOV.