AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Cactus Jack]

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

How could you say that as a Republican? She would block the President's agenda if elected.

What do you think Flake has been doing?

Honestly at this point I dislike RINOs so much I'd prefer Democrats.

McCain to me is worse than Schumer and Warren for example.

My 2 biggest problems with her from what I can tell is her stance on illegal immigration (she uses the "make them pay back taxes" meme) and gun control. But Flake is also bad on those positions anyway.

If I am going to get stabbed might as well be from the front rather than the back know what I mean?

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

Do you need to really need to ask?

[Free Bird]

In all likelihood, whether this is good or bad for the GOP, or DeWit runs, I think this seat will go to Sinema. It's going to be an anti-Trump midterm.

You have no way of knowing what the sentiment will be a year from now. Too many variables. Sinema is the strongest Dem candidate in years, of course, but even now, she was, with the little data we have, running in a statistical tie with WARD.

A variable that won't change: An open seat in a swing state during a midterm with an unpopular incumbent.

1. Arizona still Tilts R, at least for now.
2. Trump could be popular a year from now, you have no way of knowing.

[Blackacre]

I could be wrong about my overall characterization of the 2018 midterms. There are two assumptions I'm using that lead to my Leans Democratic characterization.

1. 2018 will be a bad year overall for the Republican Party.

This is based on Trump's approval rating, generic ballot numbers, and historical trends. Midterms are almost always bad for the party in power. The only exceptions in the last half century were after a botched impeachment and 9/11. Even Reagan had two bad midterms. Remember that in the 2010 Tea Party wave, the GOP was less popular than Obama. Didn't matter. So in that kind of national environment, Sinema is probably favored in Arizona, especially for an open seat.

2. Kelly Ward fits a pattern of failed GOP Senate candidates, and would be the underdog even if the national environment favored the GOP.

This does NOT apply to DeWitt. But Ward strikes many of the same chords as Sharon Angle, Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, et cetera. Angle lost in Nevada even in the Tea Party Wave, against Harry Reid.

2016 changed nothing when it comes to GOP senate candidates. Almost every GOP win on the Senatorial level was with an incumbent, and Todd Young is no Richard Murdock.

What about the Trump effect? The Black Swan effect?

Would you mind defining your terms? The Trump effects could refer to any number of things, and I have yet to hear of something called the Black Swan effect.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

I know how politics work.

They let McCain, Murkowski, and Collins take the fall. Flake is a RINO anti-Trump piece of crap through and through. McCain votes 85% among Trump too.

It's like when they sent 593953953 Obamacare repeal bills to Obama's desk just to get vetoed, but once they get a President that won't veto it all of a sudden they got nothing.

How can you not know how politics is played?

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Would you mind defining your terms? The Trump effects could refer to any number of things, and I have yet to hear of something called the Black Swan effect.

"Trump has NO chance to..." then he ends up doing it.

"Trump has NO chance to win the GOP nomination" then he ends up winning it.

"Trump has NO chance to win 270 electoral votes" then he ends up doing that.

etc. etc.

"Trump will not make it to the first GOP debate"

"Trump will not make it to Iowa"

"This is the beginning of the end for Trump"

"Trump will not get 1,237 delegates"

"Trump will not win the nomination by May the math is just not there"

"Trump will not win the Wisconsin recount" (ends up IMPROVING his margin)

"Trump will get a ton of faithless electors" (Clinton ended up getting more and got the most in 100 years)

The "Trump effect" in essence is the fact he's always right and you're always wrong.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Overall she's OK though. Better than Flake.

How could you say that as a Republican? She would block the President's agenda if elected.

What do you think Flake has been doing?

Honestly at this point I dislike RINOs so much I'd prefer Democrats.

McCain to me is worse than Schumer and Warren for example.

My 2 biggest problems with her from what I can tell is her stance on illegal immigration (she uses the "make them pay back taxes" meme) and gun control. But Flake is also bad on those positions anyway.

If I am going to get stabbed might as well be from the front rather than the back know what I mean?

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

Do you need to really need to ask?

This is what US politics has devolved into. If you speak out against bad conduct by the party's figurehead, you're shunned by the noisy fringe of the party, regardless of how often you vote with that figurehead.

[Horsemask]

Just saw the news. Wow

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

It's like how Paul Ryan in 2014 said Obama's DACA order was "unconstitutional" and wrong, but the second Trump rescinds it he goes nuts and says he shouldn't have did that.

It's like how GOP Senators pretended to be against subsidies for Obamacare and "forced" Obama to do it via executive order, yet when Trump rescinds those, all of a sudden Schumer has magically "found" the correct number of Republicans he needs (12) to pass the subsidies in Congress.

Wow! What a total shock.

I love how Trump is not only draining the swamp, but exposing it for all to see.

It's beautiful.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

This is what US politics has devolved into. If you speak out against bad conduct by the party's figurehead, you're shunned by the noisy fringe of the party, regardless of how often you vote with that figurehead.

Flake is no friend of Trump.

And that's fine - he knows his fate and has accepted it.

[Devout Centrist]

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

I know how politics work.

They let McCain, Murkowski, and Collins take the fall. Flake is a RINO anti-Trump piece of crap through and through. McCain votes 85% among Trump too.

It's like when they sent 593953953 Obamacare repeal bills to Obama's desk just to get vetoed, but once they get a President that won't veto it all of a sudden they got nothing.

How can you not know how politics is played?

No, you clearly do not. A vote for your agenda, even from someone who isn't 100% ideologically pure, is better than someone hostile to it.

Flake voted to repeal to ACA, btw.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Most likely DeWit caves to and endorses Chemtrail Kelli. Lean D.

[Blackacre]

Would you mind defining your terms? The Trump effects could refer to any number of things, and I have yet to hear of something called the Black Swan effect.

"Trump has NO chance to..." then he ends up doing it.

"Trump has NO chance to win the GOP nomination" then he ends up winning it.

"Trump has NO chance to win 270 electoral votes" then he ends up doing that.

etc. etc.

"Trump will not make it to the first GOP debate"

"Trump will not make it to Iowa"

"This is the beginning of the end for Trump"

"Trump will not get 1,237 delegates"

"Trump will not win the nomination by May the math is just not there"

"Trump will not win the Wisconsin recount" (ends up IMPROVING his margin)

"Trump will get a ton of faithless electors" (Clinton ended up getting more and got the most in 100 years)

The "Trump effect" in essence is the fact he's always right and you're always wrong.

The key issue here is that the "Trump effect" as you describe it only applies to Trump himself. There doesn't seem to be a "Residual Trump effect" that carries over to Non-Trump Republican candidates. Or to the extent that there might be, it's shaky at best. Trump, after all, did endorse Luther Strange, but Strange did not defy expectations to win his election.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

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Because Collins/McCain/Murkowski voted against repealing it.

Flake didn't need to expose himself.

People gotta learn about politics - the GOP Establishment never had any intention to replace Obamacare which is why I feel a 2018 Trumpian revolution is necessary.

[BuckeyeNut]

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

I know how politics work.

They let McCain, Murkowski, and Collins take the fall. Flake is a RINO anti-Trump piece of crap through and through. McCain votes 85% among Trump too.

It's like when they sent 593953953 Obamacare repeal bills to Obama's desk just to get vetoed, but once they get a President that won't veto it all of a sudden they got nothing.

How can you not know how politics is played?

No, you clearly do not.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

The key issue here is that the "Trump effect" as you describe it only applies to Trump himself. There doesn't seem to be a "Residual Trump effect" that carries over to Non-Trump Republican candidates. Or to the extent that there might be, it's shaky at best. Trump, after all, did endorse Luther Strange, but Strange did not defy expectations to win his election.

Strange lost to a Trumpian candidate though.

People like Trumpism. Trump needs to realize that too.

Also the Georgia House race was a "referendum on Trump" when everyone though Handel would lose.

The GOP will be fine in 2018 - 60+ seats is in reach.

[Rookie Yinzer]

D+1.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Btw, Flake is an utter scumbag whose son used "n1--erkiller" as an online username. I hope these "moderate" Republican senators all get primaried by less "respectable" wackos.  

[PragmaticPopulist]

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

I know how politics work.

They let McCain, Murkowski, and Collins take the fall. Flake is a RINO anti-Trump piece of crap through and through. McCain votes 85% among Trump too.

It's like when they sent 593953953 Obamacare repeal bills to Obama's desk just to get vetoed, but once they get a President that won't veto it all of a sudden they got nothing.

How can you not know how politics is played?

No, you clearly do not.

[IceSpear]

Would you mind defining your terms? The Trump effects could refer to any number of things, and I have yet to hear of something called the Black Swan effect.

"Trump has NO chance to..." then he ends up doing it.

"Trump has NO chance to win the GOP nomination" then he ends up winning it.

"Trump has NO chance to win 270 electoral votes" then he ends up doing that.

etc. etc.

"Trump will not make it to the first GOP debate"

"Trump will not make it to Iowa"

"This is the beginning of the end for Trump"

"Trump will not get 1,237 delegates"

"Trump will not win the nomination by May the math is just not there"

"Trump will not win the Wisconsin recount" (ends up IMPROVING his margin)

"Trump will get a ton of faithless electors" (Clinton ended up getting more and got the most in 100 years)

The "Trump effect" in essence is the fact he's always right and you're always wrong.

As much as I hate to agree, you're absolutely right on this. Dems seem to be unable or unwilling to learn that their wishful thinking is not always going to manifest into reality. Dems were crushed by 2014, crushed by 2016, crushed by the loss of Ossoff and Quist, and will be crushed again by the loss of Jones if they don't stop kidding themselves.

With that said, you're being just as bad. Trump is not an invincible titan. He lost the popular vote by a significant margin and only won the three decisive states by <1%. He is definitely beatable in 2020.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Btw, Flake is an utter scumbag whose son used "n1--erkiller" as an online username. I hope these "moderate" Republican senators all get primaried by less "respectable" wackos.  

In all fairness what did Jeff say about that? If he defended it then yeah that's scumbaggish, but if he totally condemned his son then why the beef with Flake?

[Free Bird]

Would you mind defining your terms? The Trump effects could refer to any number of things, and I have yet to hear of something called the Black Swan effect.

"Trump has NO chance to..." then he ends up doing it.

"Trump has NO chance to win the GOP nomination" then he ends up winning it.

"Trump has NO chance to win 270 electoral votes" then he ends up doing that.

etc. etc.

"Trump will not make it to the first GOP debate"

"Trump will not make it to Iowa"

"This is the beginning of the end for Trump"

"Trump will not get 1,237 delegates"

"Trump will not win the nomination by May the math is just not there"

"Trump will not win the Wisconsin recount" (ends up IMPROVING his margin)

"Trump will get a ton of faithless electors" (Clinton ended up getting more and got the most in 100 years)

The "Trump effect" in essence is the fact he's always right and you're always wrong.

As much as I hate to agree, you're absolutely right on this. Dems seem to be unable or unwilling to learn that their wishful thinking is not always going to manifest into reality. Dems were crushed by 2014, crushed by 2016, crushed by the loss of Ossoff and Quist, and will be crushed again by the loss of Jones if they don't stop kidding themselves.

With that said, you're being just as bad. Trump is not an invincible titan. He lost the popular vote by a significant margin and only won the three decisive states by <1%. He is definitely beatable in 2020.

You're right that he's no titan, but don't use the popular vote argument. We aren't the United States of Los Angeles. Leave it at he only won by squeaking by in the midwest.

[Fudotei]

Were there ever statewide approval polls taken for Ward during the 2016 GOP primary? Can't seem to find any to substantiate claims that Ward would be treated like Todd Akin

Anyways: BIG news. Wonder if Heller will stay in? It's starting to look like the Bannon purge is helping candidates self-purge by deciding to not bother with competitive races WITH a from-the-right primary. Tarkanian's no Ward tbf

[Blackacre]

The key issue here is that the "Trump effect" as you describe it only applies to Trump himself. There doesn't seem to be a "Residual Trump effect" that carries over to Non-Trump Republican candidates. Or to the extent that there might be, it's shaky at best. Trump, after all, did endorse Luther Strange, but Strange did not defy expectations to win his election.

Strange lost to a Trumpian candidate though.

People like Trumpism. Trump needs to realize that too.

Also the Georgia House race was a "referendum on Trump" when everyone though Handel would lose.

The GOP will be fine in 2018 - 60+ seats is in reach.

That's not the same thing, though. Donald Trump the man and Trumpism the ideology are separate entities, and I would argue we've yet to see Trumpism without Trump actually tested in an electoral context.

Roy Moore isn't Trumpist. Trump was never tied to the evangelical movement, and indeed won by making large gains among non-religious whites. Moore's been his own thing for a long, long time.

[Devout Centrist]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Because Collins/McCain/Murkowski voted against repealing it.

Flake didn't need to expose himself.

People gotta learn about politics - the GOP Establishment never had any intention to replace Obamacare which is why I feel a 2018 Trumpian revolution is necessary.

...you won't be a good leader.

[heatcharger]

Can’t we at least ban ahuge”cat” from the boards people actually want to read? jfc