IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Can someone make a D vs R primary map? (I know DuPage and Cook aren't fully in, but mostly everything else is in)

[MAINEiac4434]

I do like that Rotering won a county while getting less than 10% statewide. And I do like that the there were two counties perfectly tied between Grasso and Harold.

[Dr. Arch]

Ives flipped DuPage.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

not a big fan of Ives but I'm glad she gave Rauner a literal run for his money after his stances in favor of abortion funding and against conscience protections.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

At some point would love some analysis on the Rauner vs. Ives map. Ives won the collar counties, western counties, and most of the southern counties. While Rauner won Cook and Lake, the collar counties of the collar counties (most of rural northern/central Illinois), and St. Louis-region Illinois.

It also looks like these downstate counties weren't coin flip, w/in margin of 50/50; it wasn't a checkerboard. They were often won by 5-20 points. So I'm just really curious about these possible subsections of downstate Illinois. It doesn't seem extremely intuitive.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Damn, so this was very close for Rauner and very comfortable for JB, huh? Glad in the end at least Rauner won.

[Skye]

Ha, so the People's Pat lost again.

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone make a D vs R primary map? (I know DuPage and Cook aren't fully in, but mostly everything else is in)

Expect it in about 4hrs, got some classes before hand.

[Mr. Illini]

I wanted the People's Pat to win.

I feel bad for the guy. He doesn't deserve the bad rap he gets. I hope we haven't seen the last of him!

I sure hope it is. I agree he wasn't a bad governor but he is a terrible politician. AG Harold would have been more likely if Quinn had been nominated.

[Dr. Arch]

So, in the end, it looks like Rauner survived the primary by less than 3%. That is an extremely weak showing.

[Gass3268]

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

I wanted the People's Pat to win.

I feel bad for the guy. He doesn't deserve the bad rap he gets. I hope we haven't seen the last of him!

I sure hope it is. I agree he wasn't a bad governor but he is a terrible politician. AG Harold would have been more likely if Quinn had been nominated.

I mean I agree with you. That's why I was talking up Raoul to my friends and family (couldn't vote for him myself)

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Bet if you layered this over the 2016 presidential primary map, it wouldn't be any different. I'm surprised that the gold coast went so heavily to JB. I actually thought that would've been prime Kennedy territory

[Oryxslayer]

Bet if you layered this over the 2016 presidential primary map, it wouldn't be any different. I'm surprised that the gold coast went so heavily to JB. I actually thought that would've been prime Kennedy territory

Not at all. The 2016 primary saw Sanders crush in the Hispanic wards, while dividing the north ones with clinton. This is more a case I think of well educated voters rejecting the machine+Home region effect for Biss.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Looks familiar.

[Gass3268]

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

@Oryx: Thanks. Very helpful. There were areas of overlap, of course, but as you identified, the Hispanic precincts made up the difference.  Definitely makes sense for Biss to have a home field advantage closer to Evanston.

If you note the scale, the Clinton-Sanders map is of Cook in total, while the Gov primary is just City of Chicago proper so for anyone else looking at this, make note of map features to make a more accurate comparison. So for the 16 map, the areas of dark green are parts of Logan Square / Wicker Park / Avondale, which line up well with Biss's slice of purple in the upper middle of the 18 map.

Which, ya know, make sense considering the demographics of the area. Lincoln Park / Wrigleyville was also big for Biss.

Biss's biggest area of underperforming relative to Sanders is obviously on the southwest side.

[RINO Tom]

Hold up, Rauner getting 61% in Peoria (downstate). WTF is happening?

This whole site thinks of Downstate Illinois as Alabama attached to Chicago because it tends to be Republican ... not true at all.

[Bojack Horseman]

I wanted the People's Pat to win.

Me too.

[muon2]

Looks familiar.

One thing to beware in making comparisons - the rapid gentrification from millennials this decade in the neighborhoods near the loop, especially along the blue line NW to Logan Square. Those are are much whiter than they were in 2010, and Hispanics have moved west in response. Those gentrified areas were big for Biss, while the more solidly Latino neighborhoods farther out went for Pritzker. Biss also picked up the Asian neighborhoods. Kennedy did best where the cops live in Edison Park, Beverly, and Bridgeport.

[Oryxslayer]

My map, on time as delivered, but behind MCI's. I did break down the data on the tails better, and did do the map when more precincts were in, so the dem total is higher. *shrug* Compared to the previous primaries from earlier. Will create some 'fun' maps next

[_]

Well my boy managed to survive.

Here comes the GE, I'm gonna say Lean D for now.

[Kodak]

DuPage flipped to Ives in the final vote dump.

[Duke of York]

Im glad that Kwame Raoul won for Attorney General. Had Quinn won he would have made the race competitive and risked handing over a very important office to a Republican in a wave year.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well my boy managed to survive.

Here comes the GE, I'm gonna say Lean D for now.

It’s pretty much Safe D at this point, honestly.