IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[Mr. Illini]

Let's rumble.

[I’m not Stu]

Durbin won't run.

[Mr. Illini]

Progressive Lincoln Square alderman Ameya Pawar is mulling a run:

http://abc7chicago.com/politics/ald-ameya-pawar-considering-run-for-governor-in-2018/1633085/

Been following this guy for awhile now. Used to live in his area and have some mutual connections.

He's a real champ, but I hope he doesn't use up too much credibility in what could be a futile effort. Kennedy and Pritzker bring more money, influence, and name-recognition.

[RINO Tom]

Let's rumble.

I should be nervous, but I'm confident you guys will nominate a corrupt doofus.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Pritzker will get the nom and win just like John Lorgan in FL

[Mr. Illini]

Let's rumble.

I should be nervous, but I'm confident you guys will nominate a corrupt doofus.

I don't blame you after the 2010 and 2014 fiascos (both Gov and Sen).

However, 2016 was a big turnaround. Duckworth did well and Dems generally overperformed expectations state-wide.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My endorsement: Durbin, 2nd choice N. Harris, 3rd choice Rauner

[Sir Mohamed]

Earlier this year I read that the People’s Pat is seriously considering another run. However, Rauner would likely beat him again.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

More like the anti-people's Pat. I would endorse a dog over him.

[JGibson]

I'd love to see Andy Manar run.

Bernard Schoenburg at State Journal Register

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[President Johnson]

I think someone from the Obamas should run. #MichelleForGov

[RINO Tom]

More like the anti-people's Pat. I would endorse a dog over him.

When you endorse a candidate, is there like a ceremony?  Like, do you invite people over, post it on YouTube?...  Help me out here.

[Kingpoleon]

If Durbin ran...would he be a guaranteed win?

Essentially, but he already declined.

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/bruce-rauner-2018-race-campaign-finance-232926

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Looks like Rauner is pulling the ol' Rick Scott Special - dump as much of his personal fortune as it takes.

[Blair]

Apparently Chris Kennedy has begun getting a staff together to mull a run

[windjammer]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/bruce-rauner-2018-race-campaign-finance-232926

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Looks like Rauner is pulling the ol' Rick Scott Special - dump as much of his personal fortune as it takes.

He's going to lose anyway. I don't see how he could survive: if he's critical of Trump he wins more in the suburbs but underperforms downstate, if he embraces him he gets annihilated in the suburbs.

[windjammer]

It's way too early to say that Rauner is doomed.

I know we should wait before making predictions, but I'm 95% sure on this one.

[windjammer]

It's way too early to say that Rauner is doomed.

I know we should wait before making predictions, but I'm 95% sure on this one.

No problem. The only ones I'm 98% sure of are MO-SEN and maybe WI-GOV.

Why are you so sure about WI-GOV btw? I'm curious

[muon2]

IL continues to lose population faster than any other state, primarily due to outmigration to other states (over 500K net loss since 2010). The Gallup poll of 2013 identified that 50% of IL residents would move out if they could - the highest percent in the US. A similar poll this fall from the Paul Simon Pubic Policy Institute put the percentage who want to leave IL at 47%. This attitude was present under Quinn, and hasn't changed.

Rauner will say he has a plan to change that, but the Dems have blocked it. He does have a plan, and it is bold and far-reaching, and parts may not even work, but its a plan. His plan involves a lot of anti-union elements as well as curbs on legislative power. Those parts are toxic to a lot of the Dems. So far under Rauner the Dems have only proposed the same sorts of programs and spending they did under Quinn - ie no change as far as many voters are concerned. But the poll numbers say change is demanded, and for the first time in most people's memory the Pubs picked up legislative seats in a presidential year.

Who ever the Dems nominate for Gov is going to have to come to grips with the facts above. They don't have to espouse the Rauner agenda, but they can't rehash Quinn either if they plan to succeed. They are going to have to be as bold as Rauner and risk some pushback from key groups. But there are Dem models out there from MN to CA that a candidate could run on. So far, none have dared. That could cost them in 2018.

[RINO Tom]

IL continues to lose population faster than any other state, primarily due to outmigration to other states (over 500K net loss since 2010). The Gallup poll of 2013 identified that 50% of IL residents would move out if they could - the highest percent in the US. A similar poll this fall from the Paul Simon Pubic Policy Institute put the percentage who want to leave IL at 47%. This attitude was present under Quinn, and hasn't changed.

Rauner will say he has a plan to change that, but the Dems have blocked it. He does have a plan, and it is bold and far-reaching, and parts may not even work, but its a plan. His plan involves a lot of anti-union elements as well as curbs on legislative power. Those parts are toxic to a lot of the Dems. So far under Rauner the Dems have only proposed the same sorts of programs and spending they did under Quinn - ie no change as far as many voters are concerned. But the poll numbers say change is demanded, and for the first time in most people's memory the Pubs picked up legislative seats in a presidential year.

Who ever the Dems nominate for Gov is going to have to come to grips with the facts above. They don't have to espouse the Rauner agenda, but they can't rehash Quinn either if they plan to succeed. They are going to have to be as bold as Rauner and risk some pushback from key groups. But there are Dem models out there from MN to CA that a candidate could run on. So far, none have dared. That could cost them in 2018.

Yep.  In local politics, Illinois is not this safe Democratic state.  Period.  How many elections do we need to see for this to be accepted?  Does it take outvoting Cook with the collar counties and most of Downstate?  Of course.  But that's just the way it is in this state, as Cook County voters would vote for a bowl of hair (credit to Veep) with a D next to its name.

Illinois voters of all types are angry with how terribly the state has been run and the rising expenses they're facing because of it.  If they choose to reject Rauner's more conservative plan to try to fix it (not that it ever got a chance from the legislature, which refused to budge an inch), and they might, they're only going to choose a Democratic plan if it isn't the "same old, same old."  As you said, we're losing population to surrounding states with lower taxes and lower cost of living.  It won't matter if we have a world class city and several cool, smaller cities down state; we need to remain solvent and functioning as a state to be attractive to businesses and individuals, and I honestly think that if Democrats can't put forward a convincing vision of their own, I think Rauner gets another shot.

[Mr. Illini]

ILGOP released an ad against Kennedy already. Looks like they are pretty certain that he will throw his hat in.

I do appreciate the "Rauner has an awesome plan but Dems have blocked it" narrative coming from muon.

Rauner won an election and decided he had a mandate to fully implement his "Bring Back Springfield" plan and if he didn't get every piece, he was going to light the place on fire.

The people of the state did elect him, but they also maintained a Democratic supermajority in the chamber. That means he will have to work with the other side in some capacity.

In 2018, I'll be donating heavily to his challenger's campaign. As executive, he is chiefly responsible for the lack of a state budget and it has proven extremely damaging to my alma mater and to many of the great organizations in Chicago working to address issues facing our city.

[muon2]

ILGOP released an ad against Kennedy already. Looks like they are pretty certain that he will throw his hat in.

I do appreciate the "Rauner has an awesome plan but Dems have blocked it" narrative coming from muon.

Rauner won an election and decided he had a mandate to fully implement his "Bring Back Springfield" plan and if he didn't get every piece, he was going to light the place on fire.

The people of the state did elect him, but they also maintained a Democratic supermajority in the chamber. That means he will have to work with the other side in some capacity.

In 2018, I'll be donating heavily to his challenger's campaign. As executive, he is chiefly responsible for the lack of a state budget and it has proven extremely damaging to my alma mater and to many of the great organizations in Chicago working to address issues facing our city.

I hardly said it was awesome and I have previously opined that there are parts that won't necessarily work well here. I did say it was bold because he set out a lot of markers that went way beyond what even other Pubs were proposing in IL. It certainly is a clear agenda.

But what agenda do you want your nominee to have? The budget impasse has played havoc in the state, but I don't think that proposing passing a full budget that is 4 billion or more out of balance is going to attract the swing suburban votes. So, I know that the agenda you want isn't Rauner's, but you have to concede that merely suggesting a return to Quinn's policies will make it tough to win back the mansion. I suggested other Dem-based state models like MN and CA, but those may not be to your taste. What's your preference?

[jamestroll]

It's way too early to say that Rauner is doomed.

I know we should wait before making predictions, but I'm 95% sure on this one.

No problem. The only ones I'm 98% sure of are MO-SEN and maybe WI-GOV.

IL-GOV actually strikes me the same as MO-SEN. Overconfidence by the opposing party could cause them to screw it up.

It is a shame that you can't handle a strong woman like Claire McCaskill.

[jamestroll]

IL continues to lose population faster than any other state, primarily due to outmigration to other states (over 500K net loss since 2010). The Gallup poll of 2013 identified that 50% of IL residents would move out if they could - the highest percent in the US. A similar poll this fall from the Paul Simon Pubic Policy Institute put the percentage who want to leave IL at 47%. This attitude was present under Quinn, and hasn't changed.

Rauner will say he has a plan to change that, but the Dems have blocked it. He does have a plan, and it is bold and far-reaching, and parts may not even work, but its a plan. His plan involves a lot of anti-union elements as well as curbs on legislative power. Those parts are toxic to a lot of the Dems. So far under Rauner the Dems have only proposed the same sorts of programs and spending they did under Quinn - ie no change as far as many voters are concerned. But the poll numbers say change is demanded, and for the first time in most people's memory the Pubs picked up legislative seats in a presidential year.

Who ever the Dems nominate for Gov is going to have to come to grips with the facts above. They don't have to espouse the Rauner agenda, but they can't rehash Quinn either if they plan to succeed. They are going to have to be as bold as Rauner and risk some pushback from key groups. But there are Dem models out there from MN to CA that a candidate could run on. So far, none have dared. That could cost them in 2018.

Rauner has been a disappointment to me, but I admit it is way to early to count him out. Especially for a gubernatorial bid. Illinois is a Midwestern state. Midwestern state= generally great chances of a swing. Two years ago, they elected Rauner. Less then two months ago, it was the minority of states that swung Democratic on the Presidential level.

What curbs on legislative power is Rauner wanting to run on? As far as anti-union legislation, is this for public sector unions or all unions? I dislike public sector unions as a rule.

On top of all that, why do you think half of Illinois residents want to move out? When I was visit Chicagoland it seemed like heaven on earth to me. I realize that being a tourist versus resident are two different things.

[jamestroll]

It is a shame that you can't handle a strong woman like Claire McCaskill.

Yeah, if she were a man, I'd definitely support her, just like I totally support Jon Tester and Bill Nelson for reelection. Oh wait.. (That being said, Ann Wagner and Susan Brooks would be great additions to the Senate. )

You are the one who brought it up initially.

I do not think Rauner is dead on arrival in 2018, yet. He is not Kirk and he is not running for US Senate.  I think Democrats can blow this one quite easily and there is not Hillary Clinton on top of the ticket winning by 15 to 20 points either.

But he would lose if the election was held today.