2018 Senate Rankings

[IceSpear]

Menendez is definitely more likely to win than Tester, lol.

idk man I really like Tester's haircut

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Lol why does Sabato's crystal ball still have AZ as tossup and Tennessee as Likely R but Joe Manchin at Lean D? His ratings make no sense

[Xing]

AZ: Toss-Up -> Lean D (Should have made this move earlier. Republicans are clearly at a disadvantage here, even if McSally wins the primary.)
MI: Likely D -> Safe D (Stabenow would likely win even in an environment more favorable for Republicans. In this environment, there's no way she's losing.)
OH: Lean D -> Likely D (This race is really not even looking that competitive, at this point)
TN: Likely R -> Lean R (Bredesen looks like he's actually making a race out of this.)

[adrac]

1. Arizona

2. Nevada

3. Indiana
4. Tennessee

5. Missouri

6. Florida
7. North Dakota
8. Montana

Changes:

AZ: Lean D -> Likely D
AZ-08 results, new polling, and continued underwhelmingness of McSally has caused me to grow more confident about this race.

MO: Tossup -> Tilt D
I normally don't like to use the tilt category, but I feel like it best describes my feelings here. I fully expect this race to be close, but the systematic own goal by the MO GOP has caused me to find McCaskill favored to pull it out.

MS-Special: Lean R -> Likely R
It looks like the McDaniel-Espy runoff is unlikely, and I think Hyde-Smith is heavily favored if she advances.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

1. Arizona

2. Nevada

3. Indiana
4. Tennessee

5. Missouri

6. Florida
7. North Dakota
8. Montana

Changes:

AZ: Lean D -> Likely D
AZ-08 results, new polling, and continued underwhelmingness of McSally has caused me to grow more confident about this race.

MO: Tossup -> Tilt D
I normally don't like to use the tilt category, but I feel like it best describes my feelings here. I fully expect this race to be close, but the systematic own goal by the MO GOP has caused me to find McCaskill favored to pull it out.

MS-Special: Lean R -> Likely R
It looks like the McDaniel-Espy runoff is unlikely, and I think Hyde-Smith is heavily favored if she advances.

Agreed. MAYBE Tennessee before Indiana, though.

[scutosaurus]

I'm new hear, so I've decided to make one of my first posts a presentation of my Senate Ratings.

Safe Democratic: CA, NY, MA, HI, CT, MD, NJ, DE, VT, RI, MN-regular, ME, NM, and VA
Likely Democratic: PA, MI, MN-special, and WI
Lean Democratic: NV, MT, and OH
Tossup: AZ, WV, ND, MO, IN, and FL
Lean Republican: TN
Likely Republican: TX
Safe Republican: WY, UT, NE, MS-regular, and MS-special

Hi King Lear

I’ve been lurking this website for several months, and from what I saw of him, King Lear was an obnoxious Troll who would never post Senate Ratings as fair and accurate as the ones I posted above. For example, if I remember correctly (I never paid attention to his Illiterate posts), he had Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia either Leaning or Likely Republican, while I have all of those rated Tossup except Montana (which I have Lean Democratic, something King Lear would never do). Also, I have Tennessee Leaning Republican, and Texas Likely Republican, while King Lear was ridiculously adamant that these seats could never flip. Finally, If you want to meet “King Lear”, I can direct you to RRH elections, were he’s rejoined all his Republican friends (it was so obvious that guy was a closet Republican with borderline Racist, Sexist, and Homophobic views).

>saying this while improperly capitalizing all the same words as King Lear

[Doimper]

I'm new hear, so I've decided to make one of my first posts a presentation of my Senate Ratings.

Safe Democratic: CA, NY, MA, HI, CT, MD, NJ, DE, VT, RI, MN-regular, ME, NM, and VA
Likely Democratic: PA, MI, MN-special, and WI
Lean Democratic: NV, MT, and OH
Tossup: AZ, WV, ND, MO, IN, and FL
Lean Republican: TN
Likely Republican: TX
Safe Republican: WY, UT, NE, MS-regular, and MS-special

Hi King Lear

I’ve been lurking this website for several months, and from what I saw of him, King Lear was an obnoxious Troll who would never post Senate Ratings as fair and accurate as the ones I posted above. For example, if I remember correctly (I never paid attention to his Illiterate posts), he had Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia either Leaning or Likely Republican, while I have all of those rated Tossup except Montana (which I have Lean Democratic, something King Lear would never do). Also, I have Tennessee Leaning Republican, and Texas Likely Republican, while King Lear was ridiculously adamant that these seats could never flip. Finally, If you want to meet “King Lear”, I can direct you to RRH elections, were he’s rejoined all his Republican friends (it was so obvious that guy was a closet Republican with borderline Racist, Sexist, and Homophobic views).

LOL

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I doubt that this is a King Lear sock.

[KingSweden]

I doubt that this is a King Lear sock.

[GeorgiaModerate]

His ratings are more rightward than many of us (including me) would agree with, but they're not ridiculous. And I have a hard time seeing Lear rating NV as Lean D.  Give him a chance.

[IceSpear]

Same spelling patterns, coloring patterns, and capitalizing patterns, but okay guys! Many of you all still think Limo is a Democrat, but that’s neither here nor there

Neither of those can hold a candle to the fact that bronz has had people giving genuine replies to his threads for like 4 years now, lol.

This might be the most easily trolled forum on the entire internet. The mods here should be thankful it's relatively obscure, otherwise we'd get a constant stream of trolls taking advantage of our naive and/or autistic userbase for their own amusement until they finally get banned months/years later than they should've been.

[adrac]

Lol why does Sabato's crystal ball still have AZ as tossup and Tennessee as Likely R but Joe Manchin at Lean D? His ratings make no sense

I was just looking at this, not sure why it's been a whole month since he's updated. AZ and TN definitely need to be changed.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Same spelling patterns, coloring patterns, and capitalizing patterns, but okay guys! Many of you all still think Limo is a Democrat, but that’s neither here nor there

I can't wait until King Lear comes back as a republican who is a total D hack in predictions. King Lear thinks he can hide from us LOL

Also people over at RRH even are insulting Lear for being daft

[KingSweden]

Same spelling patterns, coloring patterns, and capitalizing patterns, but okay guys! Many of you all still think Limo is a Democrat, but that’s neither here nor there

I can't wait until King Lear comes back as a republican who is a total D hack in predictions. King Lear thinks he can hide from us LOL

Also people over at RRH even are insulting Lear for being daft

He managed to get himself banned in one day at DKE

[GeorgiaModerate]

I haven't updated mine in a while, so here goes.

Definitions:

Safe: The outcome is all but certain, barring something crazy upending the race.
Likely: It would be a real surprise if the favorite lost, but it's not completely implausible.
Lean: Neither outcome would be a surprise, but one side has a definite advantage.
Tilt: It's really close, but if forced to choose there's one I'd pick.
Tossup: I don't have a clue (to be avoided if possible).

Ratings:

Safe D/I (15): CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D (6): AZ, MI, MN-S, OH, PA, WI
Lean D (6): FL, MO, MT, NV, ND, WV
Tilt D (2): IN, TN
Likely R (2): MS-S, TX
Safe R (4): MS, NE, UT, WY

Some of these are less firm than others and may change following primary results or other developments, e.g. AZ will go to Safe D if Arpaio wins the primary, but might go to Lean D if McSally wins.

Changes:

AZ: Lean D to Likely D following the AZ-8 result.
FL: Likely D to Lean D after Scott's official entry and the closeness of polls so far.
MO: Tilt D to Lean D due to the MO GOP being what it is.  Claire McCaskill must be the luckiest politician in America.
TN: Lean R all the way to Tilt D.  The multiple polls with Bredesen in the lead are too much to ignore.

Overall: if all the races go the way they're forecast, the result would be D+3 (AZ, NV, TN), giving them 52 seats.  But because of the sheer number of seats the Democrats are defending, their chances of gaining control are perhaps 50% -- which is still far better than I would have guessed a year ago.

[KingSweden]

Was this year (or 2012?) the last chance for Republicans to defeat Tester and Heitkamp? Unlike any of the other red state Dems, I have a hard time believing that they could lose in 2024/2030/etc. if they manage to win this year (which they will). Heitkamp is way too popular/strong to lose in such an incumbent-friendly state, and the GOP bench in MT is fairly weak and not likely to get any stronger.

In your view, is growth in Bozeman and Missoula helping MT trend Democratic?

[The Other Castro]

1. Nevada (R)
2. Arizona (R)
-----------
3. Missouri
4. Indiana
5. North Dakota
6. Montana
7. Tennessee (R)
8. Florida
9. Ohio
10. Texas (R)
11. West Virginia
12. Minnesota Special
13: Wisconsin

Non-safe State Ratings: D+3

Ohio - Likely D
West Virginia - Likely D
Montana - Likely D
Florida - Likely D
Nevada (R) - Lean D (D Gain)
Arizona (R) - Lean D (D Gain)
North Dakota - Tilt D
Indiana - Tilt D
Missouri - Tilt D
Tennessee - Tossup (D if forced to pick, D Gain)
Texas - Lean R
Mississippi Special - Likely R

[IceSpear]

Was this year (or 2012?) the last chance for Republicans to defeat Tester and Heitkamp? Unlike any of the other red state Dems, I have a hard time believing that they could lose in 2024/2030/etc. if they manage to win this year (which they will). Heitkamp is way too popular/strong to lose in such an incumbent-friendly state, and the GOP bench in MT is fairly weak and not likely to get any stronger.

Earl Pomeroy was more popular than Heitkamp at times (and won in landslides, unlike her) and still got BTFO in 2010.

[BlueDogs2020]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA, NJ
Likely D: MN (open), PA
Lean D: OH, MT
Tossup: WV, ND, MO, IN, NV, AZ, FL, TN
Lean R: TX
Likely R: MS (open)
Safe R: UT, MS, WY, NE

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

No one should respect your ratings in any capacity if you have more than 10% of races as toss ups.

[KingSweden]

Why are your moving Florida out of Lean?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

UPDATE:

Update:

Changes:
Florida: Lean D -> Likely D
Indiana: Tossup -> Lean D
Wisconsin: Likely D -> Safe D (it's over now)

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tammy-baldwin-wisconsin_us_5a4bd21ce4b0b0e5a7a91159

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

UPDATE:

Update:

Changes:
Florida: Lean D -> Likely D
Indiana: Tossup -> Lean D
Wisconsin: Likely D -> Safe D (it's over now)

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tammy-baldwin-wisconsin_us_5a4bd21ce4b0b0e5a7a91159

Outside spending doesn't matter for sh**t. Baldwin is a popular incumbent in a purple state.

[KingSweden]

Why are your moving Florida out of Lean?

Nelson is a popular, moderate incumbent while Scott is an unpopular governor who never won a majority of votes. Best case scenario for Scott, he loses by ~3 points.

Seems a bit bullish. Lean is the most prudent rating considering how much money Scott has

[Heisenberg]

And Wulfric, not to mention, that article is from early January. A lot has changed in the four months since.