2018 Senate Rankings

[Orser67]

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, NM, NJ, MI
Likely Democratic: PA, WI, FL, OH, MN-special, ND
Lean Democratic: WV, MT, IN, MO, NV, AZ
Tossup: None
Lean Republican: None
Likely Republican: TX, TN
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, NM, NJ, MI
Likely Democratic: PA, WI, FL, OH, MN-special
Lean Democratic: ND, WV, MT, IN, MO, NV, AZ
Tossup: None
Lean Republican: MS-special, TN
Likely Republican: TX
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

[Del Tachi]

Safe D:  CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D: ME, MI, MN (S), PA, WI
Lean D: FL, MT, ND, OH
Tossup:  AZ, IN, MO, NV, WV
Lean R:  MS (S), TN
Likely R:  TX
Safe R:  MS, NE, UT, WY

[Blackacre]

God, I haven't updated this thing in AGES.

First of all, yes, there will be a special election in Mississippi this year, and I will be keeping track of it. I'll be using Maine-2 on my map for MS-Special, and ME-1 for Minnesota's special. McDaniel's entrance in the race, as well as the results of Alabama's special election last year, lead me to give MS-S a rating of Likely Republican.

As for the other races, not a whole lot has changed. We're finally getting polling, and the Democrats' GCB prospects are improving, but I'm pretty comfortable in my characterizations of Texas, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. So I'm only going to be making two changes.

The first is in North Dakota: Heitkamp has a much stronger opponent than she had last time I updated my rankings, so she goes down to Leans D. Conversely, a pro-Bredesen GOP internal in Tennessee leads me to change that state's ranking to Leans R. That's all.

Safely Democratic: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, VT, CT, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, DE, NJ

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
OH, MI, WV, PA

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
ND, NV, WI, FL, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
IN, MT, MO

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
Nothing here

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
TN, TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
MS-S

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MS

Safely Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
NE, WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(Maine's CDs represent MN-Special and MS-Special, respectively)

Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 49 seats
Pure tossup: 0 seats
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+6
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4

[Progressive Pessimist]

Arizona: Tossup
California: Safe D
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Tossup
Hawaii: Safe D
Indiana: Tossup
Maine: Safe I
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Safe D
Minnesota: Safe D
Minnesota (Special): Likely D
Mississippi: Safe R
Mississippi (Special): Likely R, maybe Lean R with McDaniel and a decent Democrat
Missouri: Tossup
Montana: Tossup
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Tossup
New Jersey: Safe D
New Mexico: Safe D
New York: Safe D
North Dakota: Tossup
Ohio: Lean D
Pennsylvania: Likely D
Rhode Island: Safe D
Tennessee: Lean R
Texas: Likely R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe I
Virginia: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Tossup
Wisconsin: Lean D
Wyoming: Safe R

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two changes as time to find great R candidates runs out:

ME: Likely D ---> Safe D
VA: Likely D ---> Safe D


Safe D (14): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA
Likely D (4): MI, NJ, MN-Special, PA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (2): WV, ND
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Blackacre]

Just making a couple updates! Wisconsin moves to Likely D due to Baldwin's massive advantage in polling, and Nebraska moves out of Safe R and into Very Likely R, which means I think it's metaphysically possible for the Democrat to win.

Edit: Moving Nevada to Likely D. Polls show Rosen ahead, and Nevada is famous for underestimating Democratic performance in polling. Which means I have to use polls and give additional weight to the national environment, candidate quality, and other Priors. It's a very weak Likely D, but Likely D nonetheless.

Safely Democratic: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, VT, CT, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, DE, NJ

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
OH, MI, WV, PA, WI, NV

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
ND, FL, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
IN, MT, MO

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
Nothing here

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
TN, TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
MS-S

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
NE, MS

Safely Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(Maine's CDs represent MN-Special and MS-Special, respectively)

Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 49 seats
Pure tossup: 0 seats
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+4
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4

[Blackacre]

I apologize for the double post, but I need to make a couple changes and it's been a couple days since the last one.

First up, Missouri. I don't know why i thought a gaffe would bring the race out of tossup when gaffes don't last. This is still the toughest hurdle Senate Democrats have to clear... sort of. More on that later. But yeah, this is a pure tossup so I'm changing my rating to reflect that.

Next is Tennessee. Why did I have Rs favored here? Bredesen isn't behind by 2 or behind by 4 or something, he's ahead by 5 in the latest PPP Poll. That's not nothing. Now, the Evan Bayh precedent holds, and a lot can change, but I feel like I should be putting this race in the Tossup camp, with candidate quality and the national environment on one end conflicting with the Evan Bayh precedent and the state's partisan lean on the other. This might even be an easier hurdle for Democrats than Missouri... or at least on the same difficulty level.

Finally, a word on Mississippi-Special. That rating's going to be weird until we know who's advancing to the runoff, due to the state's jungle primary system. Espy (the Dem) probably won't reach 50% in Round 1, but he will make the runoff. So my ratings will shift depending on which of three outcomes on Round 1 is the most likely:

• 1. Espy faces Republican Chris McDaniel in the runoff. This outcome would make the runoff a Tossup or potentially Tilts or Leans Democratic.
• 2. Espy faces a Republican who is not Chris McDaniel in the runoff. This would result in a Likely Republican race at best, and possibly a Very Likely Republican runoff.
• 3. Espy faces another Democrat in the runoff, or clears 50% in round 1. Either way, no GOP options after November 6th, so we're looking at something Safely Democratic.

Given what I think the odds of each of these outcomes presently are, MS-Special will be Leans Republican for the time being. Think of it as an average of outcomes 1 and 2.

Safely Democratic: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, VT, CT, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, DE, NJ

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
OH, MI, WV, PA, WI, NV

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
ND, FL, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
IN, MT

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
 TN, MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
MS-S, TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
Nothing here.

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
NE, MS

Safely Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(Maine's CDs represent MN-Special and MS-Special, respectively)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 2 seats
Median outcome: D+2
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+5
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+4

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

As it stands today:

MS-SPECIAL: Probable R; MN-SPECIAL: Likely D
Without tossups

Edit: my prior rankings were stupid.

[adrac]

1. Arizona
2. Nevada

3. Indiana
4. Missouri
5. Tennessee

6. Florida
7. North Dakota
8. Mississippi-Special
9. Montana

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Based on tonight's R disaster in WI, moving the race from Lean D to Likely D:


Safe D (14): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA
Likely D (5): MI, NJ, MN-Special, PA, WI
Lean D (5): MT, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (2): WV, ND
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

3-5 Democratic majority

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

3-5 Democratic majority

Texas as a toss-up? these are really hackish predictions tbh.

[Doimper]

3-5 Democratic majority

Texas as a toss-up? these are really hackish predictions tbh.

Yeah, he's being pretty generous to Cruz.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I stated 3-5 seats, but Trump doesn't have coattails for the GOP in MO,IN, ND, AZ, NV,
TN, WVA or FL

[Progressive Pessimist]

3-5 Democratic majority

You should change your name to Progressive Optimist and then we can be rivals.

[LimoLiberal]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
4/4/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT

Likely R:
TX
MS-Special (new entry)

Lean R:
ND
MO
TN (Likely R >> Lean R) - Bredesen has led in some recent polls here, but TN is red and it's early

Tilt R:
IN
FL

Tossup:
AZ (Tilt R >> Tossup) - McSally looks weak in early campaigning and polls show Sinema leading

Tilt D:
NV
MT
WV (Tossup >> Tilt D) - Blankenship has surged, and therefore Manchin's chances have gotten better
WI (Tossup >> Tilt D) - Some sort of blue wave is descending on Wisconsin. Enough for Baldwin?

Lean D:
MN-Special
OH (Tossup >> Lean D) - Sherrod Brown looks like he's thriving in Ohio with good approvals and leads in recent polling

Likely D:
MI
NJ
VA (Safe D if Stewart wins R primary)
PA (Lean D >> Likely D) PA-18 and Lame Lou? Don't think Casey is losing.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
ME (Lean I if Lepage enters)

Safe I:
VT

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 53 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 1 Tossup.

Democrats pick up Nevada, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and Florida.

[King Lear]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
4/4/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT

Likely R:
TX
MS-Special (new entry)

Lean R:
ND
MO
TN (Likely R >> Lean R) - Bredesen has led in some recent polls here, but TN is red and it's early

Tilt R:
IN
FL

Tossup:
AZ (Tilt R >> Tossup) - McSally looks weak in early campaigning and polls show Sinema leading

Tilt D:
NV
MT
WV (Tossup >> Tilt D) - Blankenship has surged, and therefore Manchin's chances have gotten better
WI (Tossup >> Tilt D) - Some sort of blue wave is descending on Wisconsin. Enough for Baldwin?

Lean D:
MN-Special
OH (Tossup >> Lean D) - Sherrod Brown looks like he's thriving in Ohio with good approvals and leads in recent polling

Likely D:
MI
NJ
VA (Safe D if Stewart wins R primary)
PA (Lean D >> Likely D) PA-18 and Lame Lou? Don't think Casey is losing.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
ME (Lean I if Lepage enters)

Safe I:
VT

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 53 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 1 Tossup.

Democrats pick up Nevada, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and Florida.

These are the fairest and most accurate Senate ratings I’ve seen from any poster on this site (beside myself). My only criticism is that I think your being to soft on Tester, Manchin, and Brown (I don’t think their favored for reelection).

[Jeppe]

Tfw Hawaii so safe that people don’t even bother to include it on the “Safe D“ list

[Jeppe]

Safe Republican
Mississippi
Utah
Wyoming

Likely Republican
Nebraska

Lean Republican
Tennessee
Texas

Toss-up
Indiana
Missouri

Lean Democratic
Arizona
Florida
Nevada
North Dakota
Montana
Ohio
West Virginia

Likely Democratic
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

[ElectionsGuy]

Minnesota S: Likely D
Mississippi S: Safe R

This is mostly favorable to the Dems. I think we can now say that the national environment is overwhelmingly likely to be Democratic favored, but I'm still skeptical of them holding all their incumbents in deep red states like North Dakota, West Virginia, Missouri, and Indiana. I believe the most likely scenario at this point is them holding 3/4 though, and it wouldn't necessarily be shocking to see them win all. Tennessee will be deceiving for the Dems and end up voting R in the end, even though its close now (there's just not enough persuadable voters in a state so republican). Arizona and Nevada are definitely where the Dems are going to make or break the Senate majority. If they can retain the red states and pick up these it will be a historic night, and if they perform anything like the special elections thus far, they can do it. Even though this map is very tough for Democrats, its still very telling that most close Trump states here are likely D. That is indicative of a Democratic wave.

R's are still favored to retain a majority, but D's are favored to win the house at this point.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Second day in a row of a rating change, and it is again a change that favors the Democrats - TN is now a Toss-Up!


Safe D (14): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular, NM, ME, VA
Likely D (5): MI, NJ, MN-Special, PA, WI
Lean D (5): MT, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (3): WV, ND, TN
Lean R (2): IN (D+1), MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[KingSweden]

Lean D: FL, MT, WV, NV (+1), AZ (+2)
Tossup: IN, MO, ND
Lean R: TN

All others I don’t see being competitive in the end

[Blackacre]

Update time.

Rick Scott is gearing up to enter the Florida Senate race. Thus, Florida moves to Tilt D. Scott and Nelson frequently trade leads in polling and Scott has a TON of money. However, it's Tilt D and not tossup due to the national environment and Scott's weak electoral record. He's not quite as strong as he thinks he is.

Next up, Montana. Tester may not be popular, but he doesn't have a strong opponent to run against, so he's a Likely D now. And the deadline already passed.

And.. okay, that's actually it for now.

Safely Democratic: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances. (10)
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, VT, CT, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms. (6)
MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, DE, NJ

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (7)
OH, MI, WV, PA, WI, NV, MT

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (2)
ND, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
IN, FL

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (2)
TN, MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
MS-S, TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (0)
Nothing here.

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms. (2)
NE, MS

Safely Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances. (2)
WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(Maine's CDs represent MN-Special and MS-Special, respectively)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 2 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.4
Median Outcome: D+2
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+5
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+3

The GOP is in a worse position now, despite Scott's entry.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will win MS-Special

[MT Treasurer]

Next up, Montana. Tester may not be popular, but he doesn't have a strong opponent to run against, so he's a Likely D now. That will only change if a strong candidate comes in by the June deadline.

What June deadline? The filing deadline for the June primary election was March 12.