Portugal's politics and elections

[Farmlands]

Well, Marcelo has 80+ approval ratings and can unite voters from all across the spectrum, including a pretty left leaning one like me. In any case, seems like Ventura's party might be the Portuguese far-right's future, still away though, and not PNR like I would've imagined.

[VPH]

Enough leader, André Ventura, announces the main candidates for the fall general election and also announces that the party will ran against Marcelo in 2021:

André Ventura, Enough leader, closed, today, the party's founding convention, which gathered around 100 supporters, announcing the head candidates for Lisbon and Porto districts in the October 6th general elections. Ventura will lead the list from Lisbon, while from Porto, Ventura choose GNR officer Hugo Ernano to run as the head candidate. Hugo Ernano was accused of killing a 13 year old gypsy teenager in a police chase in 2008. He was firstly sentenced to 9 years in prison, but after an appeal, his sentence was reduced to a suspensed 4 year prison and a 55,000 euros fine.

Ventura also announced that his party will present a candidate against Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 2021, as he accused Marcelo of wanting to take selfies with criminals than with police officers. He also announce he will meet with Spanish Vox members next week. He labeled Vox as a "coherent party with strong values" and that he will say that Portugal also has its own Vox.

It's becoming apparent to me that Basta is trying to supplant PNR as the far-right option, albeit coated in slightly less of a negative connotation because of how new they are.

[Former President tack50]

Ventura also announced that his party will present a candidate against Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 2021, as he accused Marcelo of wanting to take selfies with criminals than with police officers. He also announce he will meet with Spanish Vox members next week. He labeled Vox as a "coherent party with strong values" and that he will say that Portugal also has its own Vox.

Oh no, it's spreading

Now seriously, isn't Marcelo ridiculously popular? I would not be surprised if he only faced token opposition

[Mike88]

Every thing points that the 2021 Presidential elections will be a Marcelo blowout, 70-80%. There's the rumour, almost every pundit talks about it, that Marcelo wants to break Mário Soares 70.4% record from 1991, when he had the support of both PS and PSD. The most recent poll, about the 2021 presidential elections, gave these results:

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio on the political arena:

Q1: 2021 presidential elections: Who would you vote for:

74% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
26% Someone else/Other candidates

Vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa by party:

80% PS
79% PSD
79% CDS
60% BE
50% CDU

Poll conducted between 3 and 13 April 2019. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

PSD will, no doubt, support a second Marcelo run, and the also PS is inching closer to support Marcelo, as they're don't have literally no one to face him. However, we don't know how relations between Costa and Marcelo will be if Costa gets a majority this fall, and that could be a big factor for a future PS support to Marcelo. But, like i said above, all things point to a 2nd Marcelo run with the support of PS and PSD.

Ventura and his party have no chance. If Santana Lopes isn't getting any gains from the PSD mess, Ventura is also failling to gain from it.

[Mike88]

PSD unveils their economic election forecast for 2019-2023 - Tax cuts and more economic growth:

The PSD has started unveiling their election manifesto for the general elections with the presentation of their economic forecast for 2019-2023. PSD leader, Rui Rio, during the presentation, promissed to cut 3,7 billion euros in taxes, most of them for families and business companies. For families, Rio proposed to cut taxes on the income of small and medium-sized savings, while for businesses, Rio wants to create benefits to non-distribution of profits and risk capital incentives, adding to this strong incentives to promote exports. The party says, that with their policies, the economy will grow up to 2.7% by 2023. In terms of deficits/surpluses, the party believes that by 2021, Portugal would have a 0.2% surplus. Rio also announced a strong investment of public infrastructures, particularly in the railway sector.

During the press conference, reporters asked Rio how would he pay for these policies and he answered that only Friday will the detail policies be announced.

In reaction, the PS has criticized the PSD economic forecast saying it would create a budget hole of 7,2 billion euros, while the PSD responded saying that "primary current spending will grow less and that this slack will be used to cut taxes and increase investment" adding that "public accounts will not be harmed".

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll on voting intentions in Porto district:
(2nd largest district in the country, elects 39/40 MPs)

Vote share %:

38.7% PS, 18 seats
25.0% PSD, 11/12
  8.9% BE, 4
  5.5% CDS, 2
  5.4% CDU, 2
  5.0% PAN, 2
11.5% Others/Invalid, 0

Poll conducted between 2 and 4 July 2019. Polled 1,005 voters in Porto district. MoE of 3.09%.

Seat projection from here.

[Mike88]

2019 general elections - Alliance party decides not to form a coalition with We, the Citizens! (NC):

Santana Lopes party, Alliance (A), has decided not to form a coalition with We, the Citizens to run in the fall general elections. In a party meeting, they thanked NC for their invitation, but said that a lot of individual work had already been done in the Alliance and that the invitation came a bit late. They also confirmed that the party will run alone in the general elections.

[Mike88]

PSD presents tax cut policies as Mário Centeno accuses them of "failling on almost everything":

After presenting its economic forecast plan for 2019-2023, the PSD has presented their detail tax and economic policies. Present by Rui Rio himself, the plan cuts taxes for the middle class and businesses:

- VAT on gas and electricity to be cut from 23% to 6%;
- Increase in tax deductions on education to a maximum of 800 euros;
- Reduction of corporate taxes from 21% to 17%;
- Reduction of the housing tax (IMI) from 0.3% to 0.25%;
- Abolition of the "Mortágua tax", paid by taxpayers with properties above 600,000 euros;

Adding to this, Rio said strong incentives for family savings will be put into place. Rio says the current economic situation gives space for these tax cuts and will boost the economy. Reaction from the government was quick. Mário Centeno, finance minister and Eurogroup chairman, says the PSD plan "fails on almost everything" and that the PSD tax cuts will force spending cuts on health services.

[Mike88]

BE approves MP lists for the fall general elections:

The BE has approved the lists of MPs to run in each of the 22 districts in the October general election. The head candidates by district are the following:

Azores: António Lima
Aveiro: Moisés Ferreira, current MP
Beja: Mariana Aiveca
Braga: José Maria Cardoso
Bragança: Pedro Oliveira
Castelo Branco: Rui Lino
Coimbra: José Manuel Pureza, current MP
Évora: Bruno Martins
Faro: João Vasconcelos
Guarda: Jorge Mendes
Leiria: Ricardo Vicente, leader of the movement "Oil-free Peniche"
Lisbon: Mariana Mortágua, current MP
Madeira: Ernesto Ferraz, current MP
Portalegre: António Ricardo
Porto: Catarina Martins, BE leader and current MP
Santarém: Fabíola Cardoso
Setúbal: Joana Mortágua, current MP
Viana do Castelo: Luís Louro
Vila Real: Mariana Falcato Simões
Viseu: Bárbara Xavier
Europe: Tiago Pinheiro
Outside Europe: TBA

Other candidates, below the 1st spot, have also been announced. In Lisbon, the 3rd slot is for an Afro-Portuguese woman and member of SOS racism, Beatriz Dias. Of the head candidates, 32% are women, and 68% men, but overall, the lists have a 50/50 parity.

[Mike88]

Tensions returns to the PSD - Rui Rio loses one of his deputies over disagreements about leadership:

Rui Rio has lost one of his deputies, and strongest supporters, Manuel Castro Almeida, over disagreements about leadership. Castro Almeida was one of Rio's strongest supporters, but since May, that coincided with the disastrous management of the teachers crisis, Castro Almeida didn't show up on party meetings and stepped away from party decisions. According to the media, he tender his resignation to Rio on 20 June. Also, according to the media, Castro Almeida is deeply disappointed with Rio's leadership, for being too much centralized, and for not considering others opinions.

[Mike88]

To those interested in Portuguese political history, here's a very interesting report from Thames TV during the hot summer of 1975:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfYSKYIobjo

[Mike88]

Gfk/Metris poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Vote share %: (compared with the March poll)

38% PS (+1)
23% PSD (-2)
11% BE (+3)
  8% CDU (nc)
  5% CDS (-3)
  4% PAN (+1)
  0% Alliance (-2)
  5% Others (+3)
  5% Blank/Invalid (nc)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

7.7 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.4)
5.4 António Costa (-0.4)
4.5 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
3.9 Jerónimo de Sousa (-1.0)
3.4 André Silva (PAN) (-0.9)
3.3 Rui Rio (-1.4)
2.6 Assunção Cristas (-1.4)
2.6 Pedro Santana Lopes (new)

Poll conducted between 15 and 27 June 2019. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from July:

Vote share %:

37.3% PS (+0.2)
23.6% PSD (-0.4)
  9.0% BE (-0.1)
  6.8% CDU (+0.5)
  6.4% CDS (+0.4)
  4.3% PAN (-0.5)
  1.5% Alliance (-0.4)
11.1% Others/Invalid (+0.3)

Poll conducted between 7 and 11 July 2019. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

[Mike88]

PS, BE, CDU reach a deal for a new basic healthcare law:

PS and BE/CDU have reach a deal to approve a new healthcare basic law. After months of u-turns and flip-flops from the PS, the new law eliminates the clause that allows new Public-Privite Partnerships (PPP) in the NHS, although the new law doesn't explicitly forbid them. Because of that, a new statute about PPP has to be written and approved. The media and pundits received the news with high skepticism, advocating that the leftwing parties only threw the decision for the next parliament, which is a risky bet.

[Mike88]

More data from the Gfk/Metris poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Q1: How to you rate the Portuguese economy right now, compared with one year ago?

38% Better (nc)
35% Stayed the same (-10)
26% Worse (+10)
  1% Undecided (nc)

Q2: How do you see the economy performing next year?

50% Staying the same
21% Better
20% Worse
  9% Undecided

Q3: How to you rate your personal/family economic situation, compared with one year ago?

59% Stayed the same
20% Better
20% Worse

Q4: How do you rate the government's performance?

50% Good/Very good (-3)
39% Bad/ Very bad (+2)
11% Undecided (+1)

Popularity of political leaders by ideology: (in scale between 0 and 10)

Left:

6.3 António Costa
5.2 Catarina Martins
4.6 Jerónimo de Sousa
2.4 Rui Rio
2.1 Pedro Santana Lopes
2.0 Assunção Cristas

Right:

5.1 Rui Rio
4.5 António Costa
3.8 Assunção Cristas
3.5 Pedro Santana Lopes
3.3 Catarina Martins
3.2 Jerónimo de Sousa

Policy positions of the electorate:

Q: Taxation and public services: (in a scale of 0 and 10, which 0 is lower taxes/worse services and 10 higher taxes/better services)

5.6 Average voter

5.7 Rightwing voters
5.7 Leftwing voters

5.8 PS
5.3 PSD

Q: Economic growth and environment protection: (in a scale of 0 and 10, which 0 is more environment protection even if it harms the economy and 10 the opposite)

3.8 Average voter

4.3 Rightwing voters
3.9 Leftwing voters

3.9 PSD
3.7 PS

Q: Immigration policy: (in a scale of 0 and 10, which 0 is that Portugal should ease immigration policies and 10 the opposite)

5.2 Average voter

5.7 Rightwing voters
4.9 Leftwing voters

5.6 PSD
5.2 PS

Q: Public finances: (in a scale of 0 and 10, which 10 is that public finances should be in balance, even if it hurts public investment, and 0 the opposite)

5.3 Average voter

5.4 Leftwing voters
5.3 Rightwing voters

5.4 PS
5.2 PSD

Poll conducted between 15 and 27 June 2019. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Why is there such a lack of difference between PS and PSD voters' views?

[Mike88]

Why is there such a lack of difference between PS and PSD voters' views?

Polarization wasn't never a real thing in Portuguese politics. In fact, other post election surveys, 2002, 2005 and 2015, showed almost no difference, in terms of big policy issues, between left and right and PS and PSD. The surveys show that the Portuguese electorate doesn't tend to vote based on big issues, but rather on what they feel about the economy and party leaders. In fact, this may be one of the reasons on why the Portuguese political system has been so stable, as voters tend to vote based on party loyalty, their feelings about the economy and the government of the day, and their empathy for the main party leaders.

[Mike88]

Gfk/Metris poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Party sympathy/loyalty:

59.1% Sympathy for some party
35.2% No sympathy
  3.2% Refuse
  2.5% Undecided

Party sympathy:

27.7% PS
13.0% PSD
  6.5% BE
  4.7% CDU
  1.9% PAN
  0.5% Enough!
  0.4% CDS
  0.4% Alliance
  0.3% PNR
  0.3% PTP
  0.2% PPM
  0.2% PCTP/MRPP
  0.2% PDR
  0.1% IL
  0.1% POUS
  0.1% RIR
  0.0% MPT
  0.0% JPP
  0.0% Livre
  0.0% MAS
  0.0% PPV/CDC
  0.0% NC
  0.0% PURP
  0.0% PLD
  2.4% Refuse to say
41.0% None

Poll conducted between 15 and 27 June 2019. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

[Mike88]

2019 general elections - CDU candidates are announced:

CDU, PCP/PEV coalition, has been presenting their main candidates for the fall general elections. The main surprise of the lists was the change of district of PEV MP Heloísa Apolónia from Setúbal to Leiria. Ms Apolónia is one of CDU, and PEV's, most well known MPs and her change of district could spell the end of her parliamentary career as Leiria district is quite rightwing, and the last time CDU gain a seat was in 1985, and, since then, has polled bellow 6% in every general election.

The main head candidates by district are the following:

Azores: António Salgado Almeida
Aveiro: Miguel Viegas
Beja: João Dias, current MP
Braga: Carla Cruz, current MP
Bragança: Fátima Bento
Castelo Branco: Ana Leitão
Coimbra: Manuel Pires da Rocha
Évora: João Oliveira, PCP caucus leader current MP
Faro: Tiago Raposo
Guarda: André Santos
Leiria: Heloísa Apolónia, current MP
Lisbon: Jerónimo de Sousa, CDU leader and current MP
Madeira: Herlanda Amado
Portalegre: Manuela Cunha, PEV chairwoman
Porto: Diana Ferreira, current MP
Santarém: António Filipe, current MP
Setúbal: Francisco Lopes, current MP
Viana do Castelo: Jorge Machado, current MP
Vila Real: Manuel Cunha
Viseu: Miguel Tiago, current MP
Europe: Rita Rato, current MP
Outside Europe: Dulce Kurtenbach

[Mike88]

Fuel truck drivers call another strike on the eve of the election campaign:

Negotiations between truck drivers unions and supply companies have failed and the truck drivers unions have called for a strike to start on 12 August, just a few weeks before the start of the election campaign for October elections, and right in the middle of summer vacations for millions of Portuguese. The last strike, in mid April, created fuel sortages across the country and prompted the fear of a full blown energy crisis in Portugal. The strike ended after the government steeped in.

This time, the government threatened unions saying they will do everything in their power to protect the people from fuel shortages. According to the union, Spanish truck drivers will also be on strike on the same period, and the union is fiercely attacking the PS and the government.

The strike could be still could off, and there's a high probability of that, but if it isn't, it will a "hot" summer in Portugal.

[Mike88]

2019 general elections - PS and PSD start announcing the final list of candidates:

The two main parties, PS and PSD, are slowly releasing the names of the main candidates for the October 6 general election. In the PSD, the names of the head candidates already known are the following:

Azores: TBA
Aveiro: Ana Miguel Santos
Beja: Silvestre Ferreira
Braga: André Coelho Lima
Bragança: Adão Silva, current MP
Castelo Branco: Cláudia André
Coimbra: Mónica Quintela
Évora: António Costa Silva, current MP
Faro: Cristóvão Norte, current MP
Guarda: Carlos Peixoto, current MP
Leiria: Margarida Balseiro Lopes, current MP and JSD chairwoman
Lisbon: Filipa Roseta
Madeira: TBA
Portalegre: António José Miranda
Porto: Hugo Carvalho (Rui Rio, PSD leader, is expected to be placed in 2nd)
Santarém: Isaura Morais, Rio Maior city mayor
Setúbal: Nuno Carvalho , Setúbal city councillor
Viana do Castelo: Jorge Mendes
Vila Real: Luís Leite Ramos, current MP
Viseu: Fernando Ruas, former MEP and former mayor of Viseu
Europe: TBA
Outside Europe: TBA

In the PS, some head candidates names are already certain also:

Azores: Isabel Rodrigues
Aveiro: Pedro Nuno Santos, Infrastructure minister
Beja: Pedro do Carmo, current MP
Braga: TBA
Bragança: Jorge Gomes, current MP
Castelo Branco: Hortense Martins , current MP
Coimbra: TBA
Évora: TBA
Faro: TBA
Guarda: Ana Mendes Godinho , secretary of state for tourism
Leiria: TBA
Lisbon: António Costa, PS leader and Prime Minister
Madeira: Carlos Pereira, current MP
Portalegre: Luís Moreira Testa, current MP
Porto: TBA
Santarém: Alexandra Leitão, Secretary of State for Education
Setúbal: Ana Catarina Mendes, PS deputy secretary
Viana do Castelo: Tiago Brandão Rodrigues, Education minister
Vila Real: Ascenso Simões, current MP
Viseu: João Azevedo, Mangualde mayor
Europe: TBA
Outside Europe: TBA

In terms of policy proposals, parties are continuing to present some policies. PSD unveiled, today, their policies towards the NHS and the Health sector. In summary, the PSD policies for the Health sector, presented by Rui Rio, are the following:

- Financing of public hospitals on the basis of results;
- Contractualisation of family physicians to the private sector and the social sector to give a doctor for 700,000 people without one;
- Enlargement of the SIGIC (waiting lists for surgery)
- Changing the name of the Health ministry to "Ministry of Health Promotion";

The PCP, Communist Party - part of CDU coalition -, has unveiled, also, its election manifesto. The part presented today focused on economic and fiscal policy. Overall, the policies are the following:

- Corporate taxes increase to 25%, but for small businesses a reduction to 12,5% and for big companies an increase to 35% for profits of more than 3 million euros;
- IRS rates of 65% and 75% for incomes above 152,000 euros and 500,000 euros, respectively;
- 35 hour day and 25 days of holiday for all workers (private and public);
- Minimum wage increase to 850 euros;
- Reduction in VAT to 21%;

[Former President tack50]

Do the leaders from the major parties run as heads for Lisbon (or another large province) like they always do here because of prestige and being "safer seats" (as they have more seats)? Or do they instead just run where they live/grew up?

Where will presumably the leaders from the major parties run?

[Mike88]

Do the leaders from the major parties run as heads for Lisbon (or another large province) like they always do here because of prestige and being "safer seats" (as they have more seats)? Or do they instead just run where they live/grew up?

Where will presumably the leaders from the major parties run?

It depends. For example, Sócrates and Guterres both ran from Castelo Branco district, the place where they have family and political ties, Sá Carneiro ran in Porto district in the first election, before running in Lisbon in 1979 and 1980. And Passos Coelho ran from Vila Real in 2011. So, it differs from election to election. At least 6 Prime Ministers ran from Lisbon district at some point, only Guterres and Sócrates did not at any point. On the other parties, PSD had leaders from Porto, like Sá Carneiro, Fernando Nogueira (1995) and currently Rui Rio, Passos Coelho ran in Vila Real in 2011, and the rest ran in Lisbon. PCP always had leaders running from Lisbon, BE has Catarina Martins running in Porto, her hometown, but BE's former leader, Francisco Louçã, always ran in Lisbon. In CDS, all leaders until Manuel Monteiro (1995), ran in Lisbon, but Monteiro, a native from Braga district, ran in Braga and Paulo Portas ran in Aveiro district, a district where CDS is quite strong.

This year António Costa (PS) will head the list in Lisbon, as will Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU), Assunção Cristas (CDS), switching from Leiria district where she got elected in 2009, 2011 and 2015, and André Silva (PAN). Catarina Martins (BE), will lead the list in Porto district and Rui Rio (PSD) will break tradition and will not lead a district list, but will run most likely in the number 2 spot in Porto district.

[Mike88]

80 days until election day, and here's the state of the parties in graphics:

https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1151431189875625984

[Mike88]

Gfk/Metris poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Voting intentions for the 2019 elections by ideology:

Leftwing to center-left (0 to 4):

69% PS, BE, CDU
  2% PSD, CDS
10% Others/Invalid
10% Undecided
10% Will not vote

Centrist (5):

34% PS, BE, CDU
16% PSD, CDS
  8% Others/Invalid
18% Undecided
25% Will not vote

Center-right to rightwing (6-10):

52% PSD, CDS
10% PS, BE, CDU
  6% Others/Invalid
10% Undecided
22% Will not vote

Poll conducted between 15 and 27 June 2019. Polled 801 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

This data is quite interesting. It helps to understand the very low results of PSD+CDS and the fact the PS, for the moment, is stuck at 37-38%. The leftwing to center-left voting bloc is very moralized and energized, as this bloc represents around 37% of the electorate. The more centrist and center-right voting blocs are in a deep depression. Almost a quarter of center-right voters are considering skiping this election, and exactly 25% of centrist voters are also planning to skip this one. Centrist voters are almost 33% and the center-right/rightwing bloc around 30%.