Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

What in the world? Everything was good until this nonsensical flip by the right-wing parties, going against what they defend, just to create some chaos. It would all seem to work in favour of the PS, but Costa is threatening to resign instead of calling a new election where he would look like the reasonable hero! All the moves have been completely counterintuitive.

Exactly, this crisis is just ridiculous. About a snap election, if one is even held, it would be held after mid July, when almost half of the country is on holiday. And with an election already schedule for October 6, it seems a bit weird to call it in the height  of summer. One of the proposals that I've read is that Marcelo accepts Costa's resignation, but maintains the October 6 date and Costa governs as a caretaker. But this would also drain out all the drama from this crisis, as 5 months is almost 2 years in politics.

I think that the "Geringonça" died. There's no way PS will make deals with BE and CDU, like the 2015 one, again, and the PS will give everything they can to get an absolute majority.

[Mike88]

Looking at the calendar, if Costa does resign on May 15th, an election, and if the President dissolves Parliament, has to be held in 55 days, according to the law. So, the must likely dates for a snap election are 20 July or 27 July. 13 July could also be a possibility as it is just above the 55 day limit.

[Mike88]

Ok, right know here's the current situation of the political crisis:

The Government wants snap general elections in July.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was completely caught by surprise: The President wasn't expecting this reaction from Costa.

All eyes, now, in the PSD. Rui Rio has convened an emergency party meeting: According to the media, the PSD leader will not approve any bill that threatens public finances. One of the solutions is to force an amendment that says that teachers have the right to have the 9 years repaid, but only if the economic conditions permit it. PSD could use this as a way to deflect pressure from them to the PS.

Things are still very foggy.

[Mike88]

This tweet, IMO, sums up perfectly the current political crisis:

https://twitter.com/paulo_baldaia/status/1124593512400527361

The "Geringonça" defenders are desolate by the sad way it ends and their opponents are desolate by falling together with her. As the winner emerges António Costa. The leader of the party that approved a deliberation that recommended to the government the same thing that causes him to resign.

[windjammer]

Costa is winning?

[Mike88]

Costa is winning?

Depends on the perspective. BE and CDU think Costa is just killing the Geringonça because he's have had enough of it; PSD+CDS feel a bit discomfortable for being pictured next to BE+CDU, but argue that Costa promissed this so he has to keep his promise; and PS feel that they are the only responsible people in the room.

Now, all of that is true. Costa took a big gamble that, for now, seems to be being well received by the media. But, it's also true that PSD+CDS were against this in the past and the PS was in favour of counting all the time for teachers. Like i said, for now, Costa is being successful in playing "the fiscal responsible/TINA card", but you can also argue that if things have reached this point, is because Costa also did nothing to prevent it.

[Mike88]

Political crisis: Rui Rio will make an official statement tomorrow to react to Costa' resignation threat.

It's the last and most important reaction to Costa' speech to be known. Rui Rio, PSD leader, has been in silence for the last 24 hours and since then has met with his team in the PSD and, according to the media, has been talking with party base members and others from outside the party on the path the PSD will take. It's still unclear what Rio will do, but his Education spokesperson, Margarida Mano, in a debate on RTP3 said that the PSD isn't closing the door to changes in the bill or in the party' position.

[Mike88]

CDS now retracts parts of their position: Will vote against the bill if economic conditions are not approved.

CDS has retracted parts of their position about the teachers bill. Assunção Cristas has said that the party will propose an amendment that says that the almost 10 years of teachers frozen career and wage progressions can only be paid if the economic conditions and the if the public finances can afford it. PSD proposed this in the committee, but it was struck down by PS, BE and CDU.

CDS' reactions on the teacher's crisis have been chaotic. First, they defended the bill and said they would vote in favour in the floor. Then, when many CDS members were confused, Cristas defended the bill writing post on twitter, sending a letter to party members and holding a press conference. And now, they retract part of their position. What a mess.

Let's see what Rio has to say.

[Mike88]

Political crisis is over, for the moment: PSD will only vote in favour of all teachers repayments if the economic conditions are approved:

Just like the CDS, Rui Rio spoke and said basically the same thing as the CDS. PSD will only vote in favour of the repayment of all teachers frozen carer and wage progressions, if the PS approves the economic conditions asked by PSD: strong economy, stable deficit. If the PS does not approve, PSD will not allow the bill to be approved.

The "crisis" is now over. First reactions for Rio' speech is that he was clever but, nonetheless, retracted the party' earlier position, and made Costa's gamble work.

It will be interesting to see the next round of polling. How will this "crisis" impact the different parties voting shares? Strong surge for the PS? Fall for the PSD and CDS? and BE and CDU? Or no impact at all?

[Mike88]

The last few days have still been dominated by the "political crisis" of the the last weekend:

Both António Costa and Rui Rio gave interviews on one of Portugal' highest rating networks, TVI. During his interview, on Monday evening, Costa lashed out against PSD and CDS saying they are lying to the people and creating false hopes. He added that not in 10 years it will possible to repay the teacher's frozen wages and progressions, concluding that Portugal cannot compromise the budgetary stability and the international credibility won by the country, just to prevent a strike from teachers. He also said he wasn't looking for a political crisis but he tried to prevent a budget crisis and a blow in Portugal' external image.

Tuesday, it was Rui Rio, PSD leader, turn to be interviewed. During his interview, Rio pressed that the PSD would have never voted any bill that compromised budget targets. He added that what passed in the committee wasn't the final text and that the PM just created a fake crisis to save the falling PS campaign for the EP elections. He also fiercely attacked the Finance minister and eurogroup president, Mário Centeno, saying that his numbers, regarding how much the repayment of teachers would cost, were "fake" and that the government is just making up numbers to scare the people. Media reaction wasn't very positive, as many pundits feel that Rio, in order to clean up the mess his in, didn't mind throwing his caucus under the bus.

Full interviews:

António Costa: https://tvi24.iol.pt/videos/politica/a-entrevista-de-antonio-costa-no-jornal-das-8/5cd097bb0cf20be17fda9f23

Rui Rio: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WejgvOPbjdE

Nonetheless, the "retraction" from PSD and CDS regarding the bill is also creating some itches in BE and particularly in PCP. The main teacher' union, FENPROF, is headed by a PCP member, Mário Nogueira, and he pleaded to PCP and BE MPs to pass the PSD and CDS demands, but PCP and BE said no. Because of this, some newspapers were reporting, today, that Mário Nogueira was considering leaving PCP, as he felt disappointed with the party, but it seems that the media was wrong. Nogueira, later today, said he never thought in leaving the PCP and that his words were misunderstood. However, he says that he's a bit sad with many people in PCP for not supporting the teachers' unions demands more strongly. But, teachers seem to be furious and are accusing Costa of manipulating public opinion. At least 12 blogs from teachers associations are publicly criticizing Costa for lying to the people and that they are fed up with the media spreading out the "government' propaganda".

At the same time, Costa is receiving lots of complements from the Economist and the Commersbank, plus the European Commission. All hailed Costa determinantion in defending budget contention and stability. But, also today, Costa and Centeno were confronted by the math of the UTAO, Technical Budget Support Unit - a parliamentary team that advises the government - that the government would spend 567 million euros to pay all 9 years to teachers, insted of the 800 million euros that Costa and Centeno were saying. The unit adds, also, that the full devolution would not harm budget targets and that Portugal would have a surplus by 2020. The government lashed out against UTAO saying that their math is "totally arbitrary" and argues that they would lead to "fiscal irresponsibility".

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on the political crisis:

Q1: Do you think Costa did the right thing by threatening to resign?

49.0% Yes
44.4% No
  6.6% Undecided

Q2: Which side do you think is right regarding the teachers demands?

57.0% Government/PS
32.9% PSD/BE/CDS/CDU/Unions
10.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 3 and 7 May 2019. Polled 500 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Update: Political leaders perceptions on Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.):

Week 6-10 May 2019.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic:

35% Positive
14% Negative
51% Neutral

António Costa, PS leader and Prime Minister:

41% Negative
15% Positive
44% Neutral

Rui Rio, PSD leader:

59% Negative
23% Positive
18% Neutral

Analysis conducted by ISCTE-IUL, University Institute of Lisbon.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from May:

Vote share %:

35.4% PS (+0.8 )
27.6% PSD (+0.3)
  7.9% BE (-0.6)
  7.4% CDS (-1.1)
  7.0% CDU (nc)
  1.6% PAN (-0.6)
  1.4% Alliance (-0.2)
  9.2% Others/Invalid (+1.8 )
  2.5% Undecided (-0.4)
 
Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

15.3 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+0.3)
  9.8 António Costa (+0.4)
  8.2 Catarina Martins (-0.7)
  7.9 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
  7.4 Rui Rio (-0.9)
  6.3 Assunção Cristas (-1.6)

Preffered PM:

52.8% António Costa (+1.8 )
29.5% Rui Rio (-1.0)

Poll conducted between 3 and 8 May 2019. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

PSD' communication consultant resigns after being accused of creating fake profiles on social media to attack PSD opponents:

Ricardo Gonçalves, the PSD' communication consultant, has resigned from his posts after reports suggested that he was behind several fake profiles on social media with the goal of attacking and of spreading false rumours of PSD opponents. Mr Gonçalves has denied the accusations and accuses the media of releasing a report with false arguments, adding that he resigns in order to not put pressure on Rio and the party, and that this is all a campaign from Rio's adversaries within the PSD.

[Mike88]

Pedro Santana Lopes, Alliance leader, suffers a car accident. He was rushed to Hospital and his condition, for the moment, is stable:

Pedro Santana Lopes, Alliance leader, has suffered a pretty big car accident this afternoon. He was going to Cascais city, to attend an EP election campaign event, when his car flipped over several times in the A1 highway. He was in the company of his candidate for the EP elections, Paulo Sande. Mr Sande exited the car on his own foot and with no injuries, while Santana Lopes was incarcerated and had to be freed by firefighters. He was rushed to Coimbra University Hospital and his condition is stable and out of danger, according to the media.

Parties from left to right have reacted by wishing well to Santana Lopes and hoping that this is all a big fright and nothing serious.

[Mike88]

More polling about the teachers frozen career and wages demands:

GfK/Metris poll to Expresso/SIC TV:

Q: Overall, would you say that you are in favour or against the teachers frozen career and wage demands:

42% Against
38% In favour
20% Undecided

Poll conducted between 7 May and 12 May 2019. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

Eurosondagem poll:

Q: Do you think that Parliament should approve a law that obliges the Government to account for and pay the 9 years 4 months and 2 days that the teachers unions claim?

71.0% No
21.0% Yes
  8.0% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 8 May 2019. Polled 1,005 voters. MoE of 3.09%.

[windjammer]

Costa is very effective woooow. His party was a bit going down and he perfectly outwitted his opponents.

[Mike88]

Costa is very effective woooow. His party was a bit going down and he perfectly outwitted his opponents.

In fact, Costa is very lucky to have the kind of opposition he has right now. However, I'm still quite surprise that polling basically didn't changed after this crisis. Pundits who, two weeks ago were just giving applause and hailing Costa as a huge winner, are now a bit surprised by the polling results. No doubt, that Costa needed to stop the PS polling drop, and that seems to stop but his main opposition, but the PSD remains quite stable at around 28-29%. On the right, CDS seemed to be the one that was hit the most. Now, what does this all mean? First, the electorate as a whole didn't give to much attention to the crisis, second, and until the moment, Costa only was able to stop the PS bleeding, although he made PSD/CDS run for their lives, and third, the left is currently furious at Costa and their relationship seems almost impossible.

Left-wing pundits are calling this PS strategy of going to the center as a mistake, saying that it will work in the short run, but in the long run the PS will hit a wall. On the other side, right-wing pundits say the Costa has stolen the fiscal responsibility card from Rio and the PSD, and this is making the PSD/rightwing electorate furious and even more angry towards Costa, but also towards Rio. No wonder, the PSD has called Passos Coelho to enter in the EP election campaign. Overall, first indications show that Costa has regain control of his government and the party, while the opposition are just spinning their heads, but the impact has been small and the outcome of all of this is still foggy.

[Farmlands]

Anectodal evidence disclaimer, but I will surely switch my vote from the Left Bloc to PS these legislative elctions after this crisis, if only because I think fiscal responsibility and general sanity should be rewarded, specially when it comes to a vulnerable country like Portugal.

[Mike88]

Anectodal evidence disclaimer, but I will surely switch my vote from the Left Bloc to PS these legislative elctions after this crisis, if only because I think fiscal responsibility and general sanity should be rewarded, specially when it comes to a vulnerable country like Portugal.

BE was always in favour of this, and they will continue to defend full repayment for teachers. The vast majority of the BE electorate also supports this, but they may feel a bit upset towards Costa because of the "fiscal responsibility card" and for saying things they don't want to be associated with. Nonetheless, the big idiots in all of this were PSD and CDS, and that's where Costa was aiming to hit. He's still very soft and carefull when talking about BE and CDU and that's quite telling. Not to mention that he, on the EU level, is becoming closer to Macron. He wants to present himself as, like you said, the responsible one in a frail country like Portugal. No doubt he will get a lot of voters that normally swing between PS and PSD. On the contrary, I don't buy the idea that PSD voters would consider voting for Costa, even after this "crisis".

But, looking at long run, what can we expect in a Costa second term, with a PS with a strong result and mandate? That's the issue right now, in my view. He will win, of course he was merits like proving he could forge a deal and controlling BE and CDU, and of maintaining the fiscal conservative policies of the previous government, but other than this, he has to give something else. Expresso newspaper, I think, published some interesting graphics about the economic trends between Portugal and the some of Europe's poorest countries and it shows that Portugal isn't converging at all, and in fact, by 2021, Portugal could be surpassed, in GDP PPP, by Poland, Hungary and Lithuania. The question of how vulnerable Portugal is, could become, again, center stage when, and if, Portugal falls even further compared with other EU countries.

[Mike88]

UCP-CESOP poll for RTP/Público newspaper: (compared with the November 2016 poll)

Vote share %:

39% PS (-4)
28% PSD (-2)
  9% BE (+1)
  8% CDU (+2)
  7% CDS (+1)
  3% PAN (+1)
  1% Alliance (new)
  5% Others/Invalid (nc)

Poll conducted between 16 and 19 May 2019. Polled 1,882 voters. MoE of 2.3%

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris poll to Expresso/SIC TV about Portugal and the EU:

Q1: In a scale between 0 and 10, would you that Portugal benefits for being a member of the EU? (0 no benefit at all; 10 benefits a lot)

6.9 All voters

7.6 PSD voters
7.2 PS voters

7.1 18-24 year old's
6.8 65+ year old's

Q2: In a scale between 0 and 10, would you agree withe the statement "Portugal should leave the EU"? (0 totally disagree; 10 totally agree)

1.7 All voters

1.1 PSD voters
1.4 PS voters

1.2 18-24 year old's
1.7 65+ year old's

Q3: Are you satisfied by the way democracy works in the EU?

42% Somewhat unsatisfied
40% Somewhat satisfied
  9% Very unsatisfied
  4% Very satisfied
  8% Undecided

Q4:  In a scale between 0 and 10, would you rate the benefits of being the single currency, Euro (0 no benefit at all; 10 benefits a lot)

5.9 All voters

6.7 PSD voters
6.0 PS voters

6.3 18-24 year old's
5.5 65+ year old's

Q5: How do you rate this statement?: "Economic decisions imposed by the EU, should restrain even more national politics"

30% Agree
20% Disagree
17% Totally agree
15% Nor agree or disagree
  8% Totally disagree
11% Undecided

Poll conducted between 22 April and 3 May 2019. Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%

[Farmlands]

I guess in the European elections we got to see fallout of the teachers crisis for PSD, low turnout nonetheless. It's kind of ominous that there have only been PS victories since I became of voting age, the result of a constantly embattled rival party, there should always be a healthy opposition in my opinion.

[Mike88]

I guess in the European elections we got to see fallout of the teachers crisis for PSD, low turnout nonetheless. It's kind of ominous that there have only been PS victories since I became of voting age, the result of a constantly embattled rival party, there should always be a healthy opposition in my opinion.

We got to see how disappointed the center-right electorate is, currently. The PSD and CDS bad results can be explained by the fact that many of their voters didn't show up to vote. Yes, combined they get more than they got in 2014, but still, we can see by the results in many PSD strongholds that many votes are missing and they haven't gone for other center-right parties, that also had a terrible night (Alliance, IL, Basta!), meaning they just stayed home. Their disappointment and anger after the "teachers crisis", made, probably, many of them angry towards their parties and more willing to not vote in these election. I never bought the idea that some would vote PS, no, that doesn't make sense, not to mention the pretty bad campaigns done by the PSD and CDS. Nonetheless, some PSD+CDS voters may have voted, in protest, for PAN in the big urban areas. To add also, that the PS result isn't brilliant. In fact, the PS victory is more a PSD defeat. The PS only got 1% more than there 2015 results, which is OK, but, not that brilliant.

Although the right had a terrible night, they got, at least, a piece of good news: the results from Madeira. The islands hold regional elections this September, and the EP election was seen as "huge poll" on the political mood of the islands. Polls, until now, show a very close to call race between PSD and PS, but the EP results were quite different:

37.2% PSD (+6.2)*
25.8% PS (+3.4)
  8.1% CDS
  5.3% BE (+1.6)
  3.7% PAN (+0.4)
  3.0% CDU (-1.7)
  1.6% Alliance (new)
10.0% Others (-16.0)
  5.3% Blank/Invalid (-3.3)

38.5% Turnout (+4.6)

*PSD result compared with the PSD/CDS coalition result of 2014.

Using this results, and adding 2 seats for JPP, PSD is just 2 seats short of a majority and the only one with the possibility of forming government. If the PSD holds on to Madeira, with a similar result, it would at least, some kind, of solace for the party.

I had my few moments of PSD victories: the 2009 EP elections, the 2011 and 2015 general elections.

[Mike88]

General election polls released on the EP election night:

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP/Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

39% PS (nc)
25% PSD (-3)
  9% BE (nc)
  8% CDU (nc)
  6% CDS (-1)
  4% PAN (+1)
  1% Alliance (nc)
  8% Others/Invalid (+3)

Poll conducted on 26 May 2019. Polled 4,589 voters that cast ballots in the EP elections.

Aximage poll:

Vote share %:

36.5% PS (+1.1)
25.7% PSD (-1.6)
  9.1% BE (+1.2)
  7.3% CDU (+0.1)
  6.9% CDS (-0.5)
  1.5% PAN (-0.1)
  1.3% Alliance (-0.1)
  9.1% Others/Invalid (+0.1)
  2.5% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 16 and 20 May 2019. Polled 622 voters. MoE of 3.80%