Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Update: Political leaders perceptions on Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.):

Week 15-19 April 2019.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic:

61% Positive
15% Negative
24% Neutral

António Costa, PS leader and Prime Minister:

42% Negative
29% Positive
29% Neutral

Rui Rio, PSD leader:

61% Positive
24% Negative
15% Neutral

Analysis conducted by ISCTE-IUL, University Institute of Lisbon.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on Economic feelings:

Q1: How do you think the economy will be in one year? (compared with the Dec. 2018 poll)

44.9% Same (+1.4)
32.4% Worse (+5.6)
20.0% Better (-7.5)
  2.7% Don't know (+0.5)

Q2: And how do you think the economy will be in 3 years? (compared with the Dec. 2018 poll)

32.5% Worse (+6.8 )
29.5% Better (-10.0)
21.9% Same (+0.3)
16.2% Don't know (+3.0)

Poll conducted between 30 March and 1 April. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

António Costa heckled by anti-new Lisbon airport activists during PS rally. The activists are from the Extinction Rebellion:

PM António Costa had his night a bit damaged, yesterday. During a PS rally, celebrating the 46th birthday of the party, a group of activists, from Extinction Rebellion, threw paper airplane towards the PM and then invaded the stage where Costa was speaking, with even trying to steal his microphone. The PM's security quickly entered into action and, literally, threw away the activists from the stage and the room.

The activists were protesting against the new Lisbon airport that, according with the environmental impact study requested by the government, could harm many bird species in the Tagus natural reserve. The government, nonetheless, has announced that the project would go ahead as planned. The group of activists are from Extinction Rebellion, the same group that is currently making several protests in London, that have resulted in several arrests.

The moment of the stage invasion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94Zx-BluJIA

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF about the 25 April revolution:

Q1: In which day occurred the April revolution?

97% 25 April
  1% Other date
  2% Don't know

Q2: In which year occurred the revolution?

85% 1974
  9% Other date
  6% Don't know

Q3: What song served as code for the revolution?

77% E depois do Adeus and/or Grândola Vila Morena
  3% Other song
20% Don't know

Q4: What does the initials MFA mean?

44% Armed Forces Movement
  6% Other meaning
50% Don't know

Q5: Who led the military into Lisbon?

42% Salgueiro Maia
10% Someone else
48% Don't know

Q6: Who was the operation commander during the revolution?

24% Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho
11% Someone else
65% Don't know

Q7: Who was the leader of the country by the time of the revolution?

50% Marcelo Caetano
24% Someone else
26% Don't know

Q8: To whom did Marcelo Caetano gave power after he surrendered?

39% António de Spínola
21% Someone else
40% Don't know

Poll conducted between 3 and 13 April 2019. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

New healthcare basic law: PS ditches agreement with BE and comes closer to the PSD.

The day should have been only about the 25 April revolution commemorations, but the political debate was dominated by the PS' U-turn on their "suppose" deal with BE regarding the new healthcare basic law. The PS, who, allegedly, agreed with BE to ban public-private partnerships (PPP) in hospitals, ditched BE and is now coming closer to the PSD proposals on healthcare. In fact, the PSD leader, Rui Rio, says that if the PS is willing to maintain PPPs in the management of hospitals, a broader deal between PSD and PS on healthcare is quite possible.

The BE, on the other hand, is shocked by the PS' position and they hope that the PS make another U-turn. PCP is much more prudent, saying they will only react when a final text is unveiled.  

[Velasco]

Congratulations on the anniversary of the carnation revolution

[Mike88]

Update on local by-elections:

3 local by-elections will be held in the next two months. The big one is the mayoral by-election in Castro Marim, Algarve. 5,800 voters will go to the polls on June 2nd to elect a new local cabinet. 3 lists have presented candidates:

PSD/CDS - Coalition Castro Marim + Human
PS - Socialist Party
CDU - Unitarian Democratic Coalition

Another by-election was called for Argoncilhe parish, Santa Maria da Feira municipality, Aveiro district. The by-election will be held on June 23th. The election was called after the PS+CDS opposition resigned from all of their seats and left the PSD minority without quorum. 7,450 voters are registered for this by-election. In 2017, the results were the following:

41.6% PSD, 6 seats
36.5% PS, 6
11.1% CDS, 1
  2.8% CDU
  2.6% BE
  5.5% Invalid

60.1% Turnout

Parties have until 13 May to present lists of candidates. Until now, PSD, PS, CDS and CDU have presented candidates.

There will also be a by-election in Pias parish, Monção municipality, Viana do Castelo, next Sunday, April 28th. This is election is a PSD gain from an Independent as the PSD was the only party to present lists. 884 voters are registered for this by-election.

[Mike88]

Congratulations on the anniversary of the carnation revolution

Thanks! Too bad the weather is so bad lately, many storms and low temperatures, bellow 10ºC, in the last few days. Some parades in Porto city had to be interrupted by strong rain. In Lisbon, the weather was better and the traditional parades were held normally.

Pictures from here (Lisbon) and here (Porto).

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio on the political arena:

Q1: 2021 presidential elections: Who would you vote for:

74% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
26% Someone else/Other candidates

Vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa by party:

80% PS
79% PSD
79% CDS
60% BE
50% CDU

Q2: How do you rate Marcelo's job performance as President?

91% Good
  9% Bad

Q3: Compared with Cavaco Silva, how do rate Marcelo?

89% Better
  7% Equal
  4% Worse

Q4: Who do you trust more: the President or the Prime Minister?

58% Just the President
31% Both
  7% Just the Prime Minister
  4% Undecided

Q5: How do you rate the government' performance?

45% Average
28% Positive
27% Negative

Q6: How do you rate the opposition' performance?

51% Negative
41% Average
  8% Positive

Q7: In your opinion, who's the real leader of the opposition?

31% Rui Rio (PSD)
27% Assunção Cristas (CDS)
  8% Catarina Martins (BE)
  2% Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU)
31% No one

Q8: Trust in politicians:

António Costa (PS): 18% Trust; 40% Some trust; 42% No trust
Catarina Martins (BE): 11% Trust; 35% Some trust; 54% No trust
Rui Rio (PSD): 9% Trust; 38% Some Trust; 53% No trust
Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU): 6% Trust; 31% Some trust; 63% No trust
Assunção Cristas (CDS): 6% Trust; 31% Some trust; 63% No trust
André Silva (PAN): 4% Trust; 19% Some trust; 77% No trust
Santana Lopes (Alliance): 3% Trust; 21% Some trust; 76% No trust
André Ventura (ENOUGH!): 3% Trust; 10% Some trust; 77% No trust

Q9: How did austerity evolved during this government?

50% Decreased
27% Stayed the same
18% Increased
  5% Don't know

Poll conducted between 3 and 13 April 2019. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

André Ventura' new party ENOUGH! is being investigated by the DA office for forgery of signatures:

Ventura' new right-wing party, ENOUGH! (CHEGA!), is being investigated by the DA office after the Constitutional Court said that a number of signatures, sent by the party, were irregular and could have been forged. According to the Court, around 2,600 signatures were from dead people, children and people who weren't born on the correct date. The DA office has asked for the ruling from the Court and is investigating the Court' claims. The party was, nonetheless, approved by the Court after an extra 1,397 signatures, also sent by the party, were validated.

But suspicions around Ventura and his party aren't damaging his electoral prospects, it seems. The most recent EP election poll puts Ventura' coalition at almost 2%, ahead of PAN and of Santana Lopes' Alliance.

[Mike88]

"Familygate" continues. This time it has reached the graveyards of Lisbon:

The "Familygate" scandal continues to embarrass the PS. During a Lisbon city council meeting, there was going to be a vote to approve local subsidies to a local association called "Friends of the Graveyard. But, a PSD member of Lisbon city council revealed the names the association, which angered Lisbon's mayor, Fernando Medina. The list are names of only PS members, many of them are from Carlos César', the PS caucus leader, family, including his mother and sister, and other former government members. The association even received, it seems, 10,000 euros  without being approved by the city council. Medina tried to stop the PSD deputy of giving more info interrupting him many times. Medina was visibly upset and embarrassed. The vote was ultimately postponed.

According to Expresso newspaper, the audience seated on the city council laughed as the PSD deputy listed the names of the association members. For those present in the meeting, the whole story seemed like a comedy.

[Mike88]

Interesting graphics on the trends between European and General elections in Portugal:

Graphic 1: Difference between the results of the EP elections and the results of the previous General election for the party/coalition in government:


Graphic 2: Difference between the results of the General elections and the results of the previous EP election for the party/coalition in government:


Graphics done by one of Portugal's top pollsters, Pedro Magalhães. Graphics from here.

Main takes from the graphics:

-All parties/coalitions in power lose support in the EP elections. PS got 32.3% in the 2015 general elections and current polling puts the PS between 30-32%, bellow the 2015 PS numbers. The trend seems to continue.

-Parties/coalitions in power normally gain significant levels of support in the following general elections after the EP elections. Only 1995 and 2002 were exceptions, but only just. Current polling for the General elections puts the PS between 35-37%, well above the predicted 30-32% for the EP elections. The trend here also seems to continue.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio on the General elections:

Vote share %:

37.2% PS
25.6% PSD
  8.3% BE
  6.5% CDS
  6.5% CDU
  2.8% PAN
  1.8% Alliance
11.4% Others/Invalid

Vote share % by age, 18-24 year old:

27.7% PSD
23.4% PS
  6.4% PAN
  2.1% CDS
  2.1% CDU
  2.1% Alliance
12.8% Others/Invalid
23.4% Undecided

Vote share % by age, 64+ year old:

34.3% PS
19.0% PSD
  6.6% CDS
  5.8% CDU
  4.4% BE
  2.2% Alliance
  5.8% Others/Invalid
21.9% Undecided

Q1: Who do you think will win in October?

67% António Costa
10% Rui Rio
  4% Others
19% Undecided

Poll conducted between 3 and 13 April 2019. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Farmlands]

I know increasing pensions and all those benefits has made the PS popular with older people, but why isn't the youth gravitating towards the left like in many other countries? My theory is that only with the rise of far-right movements does the rookie voting population swing to its most vocal opponents to counter it.

[Babeuf]

What does BE get among 18-24s? I would guess they might be higher in that demo than their national average.

[Mike88]

I know increasing pensions and all those benefits has made the PS popular with older people, but why isn't the youth gravitating towards the left like in many other countries? My theory is that only with the rise of far-right movements does the rookie voting population swing to its most vocal opponents to counter it.

In fact, i recall making a search on ERC site to see the tables by age, region, etc, and the youth vote in Portugal had a trend of being more rightwing than the older vote. I don't think PSD is that high among the youth vote, my guess is that they are bellow PS but the margin could be close. I don't have enough data on why the youth, at least in Portugal, are more aligned with center-right parties, but my guess is that they are more open to liberal options, both on the left and right, which means that between the 2 major parties, they prefer the PSD, and on the left they may be divided between PAN and BE.

What does BE get among 18-24s? I would guess they might be higher in that demo than their national average.

Like i said above, BE is also very popular among the youth vote. In Pitagórica poll, BE numbers seem to be bellow 2% which is weird, and this is probably due to the small sample among youth voters. Normally BE has around 9-10% of the youth vote. In this poll, PAN, and also PSD, seem to be overestimated and BE underestimated.

[Mike88]

Pias local by-election - PSD gain from Independent:

79.4% PSD (new), 7 seats (new)
16.8% Blank ballots (-1.4)
  3.8% Invalid ballots (+1.4)

36.3% Turnout (-26.2)

[Mike88]

Local CDS branch in Lisbon proposes LGBTI crosswalks in Lisbon, but many CDS members are furious with the local party:

A local CDS branch in the parish of Arroios, Lisbon city, proposed LGBTI crosswalks in an avenue in Lisbon to commemorate International Day to Combat Homophobia, Transphobia and Biphobia, on May 17. The parish assembly approved, with unanimity, the CDS proposal. But, CDS-Lisbon and the national party is furious with the CDS local branch. Many CDS MPs, and other party members, have accused the local CDS of wasting public money and that this is a huge nonsense and mistake. CDS councillors in Lisbon city hall are also against the "rainbow crosswalks" but, until the moment, CDS leader Assunção Cristas hasn't taken a stand on this issue.

Not an easy couple of days for CDS...

[Mike88]

Political update:

Parliament forces government to pay the full 9 years of teachers progressions, as the PS says that it will hurt public finances:

A "negative coalition" between PSD, BE, CDS and CDU defeated today the government by forcing Costa' cabinet to pay the 9 years of teachers career progressions and wage freezes. The PS was the only one to vote against. The 4 parties also approved a PSD bill to force the government to pay 3 years back to teachers during 2019. The PS is accusing the parties that approved this bill of irresponsibility and will ask for the Constitutionality of the bill if the Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa doesn't block it. Nonetheless, a PSD and CDS proposal to pay back teachers taking into account the economic growth and the public debt, was defeated by PS, BE and CDU. The overall amount of money to spent on this is very controversial. The government says more than 500 millions euros would have to be spent, while unions say that the amount is not even half of the government' figures.

Also, during the PM Q&A questions today, tensions between PS and BE reached high levels. The new basic healthcare law continues to divide the left and the war of words between PS and BE continues. Costa says that he is willing to negotiate with the left, but says the Catarina Martins cannot mistake the "tree from the forest". Ms Martins didn't liked Costa response and angrily responded saying that Costa is betraying the legacy of those who created the NHS and that he's giving in to the pressures to the pressures of the right and of private corporations.

Corruption charges have forced a government member to resign. The chief of staff of the secretary of civil protection, Adelino Mendes, resigned after the police raided his office in the ministry of Interior and he was declared a suspect. He's accused, as are other 73 people, of falsifying documents, money laundering and fiscal fraud regarding EU funds for the program "Portugal 2020". According to the police, the money was supposed to create jobs and create wealth and insted was used to buy luxury cars and houses for the suspects in the case.

Local CDS branch in Lisbon proposes LGBTI crosswalks in Lisbon, but many CDS members are furious with the local party:

 
To add, this will not happen it seems. According to the media, the idea was dropped after it was revealed it violates the road code, as the law say sthat crosswalks can only be painted in white, any other colour is illegal. Nonetheless, the divisions in CDS continue.

[Mike88]

António Costa calls for an emergency meeting of his government. Resignation is on the table:

António Costa has summon his closest allies to an emergency meeting this Friday afternoon. The reason is the approval of the 9 years of teachers progressions which left the PS alone and furious, calling the PSD/CDS opposition, and BE and CDU, as irresponsible.

Resignation of the government is on table. The media reports that Carlos César, PS caucus leader, said that the situation of the government could become unbearable, but says other options are on the table like asking the constitutionality of the teachers bill. But, still, and according to pundits, the resignation of Costa is still the most unlikely scenario. We'll see.

[Former President tack50]

Wait so Costa is resigning over such a bill? Since PS is ahead in the polls why not call an election instead?

[Mike88]

Wait so Costa is resigning over such a bill? Since PS is ahead in the polls why not call an election instead?

The election is already called, it's schedule for October 6. And Costa cannot even call an election, the President of the Republic is the only one with that power, of course by the advice of the PM and all of the parties in Parliament.

All of this is dramatization, IMO. And in the teachers issue, the 2 big parties, plus CDS, have no reason. PS said in 2015, that all the time frozen would be paid, but, since then, has forgot about it and said that there isn't enough money, so i will give you 2 years. The unions refused and the government refused to negotiate with unions again. And PSD, plus CDS, are just trying to win cheap political points by trying to obstruct the government. Only BE and CDU have some reason, because they always defended this.

So, all of this is drama, drama, drama. Even if Costa resigns, Marcelo can refuse his resignation and say "get back to work". I may be wrong, but i don't think Costa will resign, he will probably make a speech criticizing PSD, BE, CDS and CDU and say he's the only moderate, fiscal responsible choice.

[crals]

Costa has met with the President and will make an announcement to the country in 40 minutes...

EDIT: No resignation, just a threat of resignation if the bill does go through the final vote

[Mike88]

Costa has met with the President and will make an announcement to the country in 40 minutes...

EDIT: No resignation, just a threat of resignation if the bill does go through the final vote

I'm quite surprised by Costa' decision. Nonetheless, it seems he will really resign because all parties say they will not change their voting intentions until the final vote.

I didn't heard his full speech, but, from what I've read it was quite weak. Costa saying he wasn't threatening no one, but at the same time saying he will resign of the bill is approved. No one looks good in the picture in this crisis.

[Farmlands]

What in the world? Everything was good until this nonsensical flip by the right-wing parties just to create some chaos. It would all seem to work in favour of the PS, but Costa is threatening to resign instead of calling a new election where he would look like the reasonable hero! Just counterintuitive moves all around.