Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Considering PSD-Madeira's tendency to rebel, I wonder if Madeira would have some sort of regionalist party if Portugal did not ban the creation of such parties; not unlike CC or NCa in the Canaries just south.

Don't they actually have a unique party in fact regionally? (even if it tries to run nationally with 0 luck outside Madeira)

Also, why just PSD-Madeira? Why not also PSD-Azores? (assuming they also have a similar tendency to rebel)

It would definitely have, as there were already some attempts to do that, particularly in the North. If Portugal's constitution allowed regional parties, like in Spain for example, there would be strong regional parties in Madeira, North and Azores. The PSD is basically the home of many people, in Madeira, that strongly defend a deeper autonomy of Madeira from mainland Portugal. The PSD-Madeira likes to call themselves as "the autonomy party" and some of their high profile members, like Alberto João Jardim, were members of the pró-independence movement FLAMA (Madeira Archipelago Liberation Front) in the mid 70s.

Madeira has a "regional party" of its own and it is the JPP, Together for the People. But the party has only support in Madeira and even there only finds big support in Santa Cruz city, where the party was founded. In the rest of the island, the party isn't that popular.

PSD-Azores is a huge mess. They're out of power since 1996 and have had a succession of leaders who have led the party to constant defeats. They will have a new leader next week, José Bolieiro, the current mayor of Ponta Delgada, and there will be regional elections next year. If the PSD-Azores, for some reason, wins the regional elections they could be in a very strong position in future budget votes, but, right now, that a very unlikely. Plus, Madeira was always much more rebel than Azores. If Madeira and Azores were kids, Azores would be the quiet, well mannered child, while Madeira would be the one always screaming and wanting more and more things.

[Mike88]

Leadership changes: Liberal Initiative (IL) elects MP João Cotrim Figueiredo as new leader with 96% of support.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1203746276577366019

Liberal Initiative MP João Cotrim Figueiredo was elected, today, as the new leader of the Liberal Initiative with 96% of the votes of the around 190 delegates in the party's convention. In his acceptance speech, Mr Figueiredo highlighted the main policies of IL for the next 4 years: Climate change, as he said this topic cannot be just a leftwing one, lower taxes, freedom of choice and fight against corruption. Electoral reform will also be a main policy for IL.

[Mike88]

Political update:

2020 budget: Parties start to be received by the finance minister, Mário Centeno, to be presented with the overall picture of the 2020 budget.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1204357787347759104

The Minister of State and Finance is presenting, in the Assembly of the Republic, the outline of the Government's 2020 Budget proposal to parties with parliamentary representation.

Mário Centeno, finance minister and Eurogroup chairman, started receiving all parties seated in Parliament to unveil the final print of the 2020 budget. Almost all parties left the meeting giving little clues on what the budget has, only that GDP growth for 2020 is projected to be 2% and that there will be a surplus of 0.2% of GDP, meaning that GDP per capita in 2020 could surpass 21,000 euros, the highest figure ever. BE and CDU didn't commit to a favourable vote for the budget and will wait for the final document, the same position as PSD and CDS.

During the PM Q&A debate, this afternoon, Costa asked Parliament to struck down the Finish EU presidency budget and he got unanimous support in this category. Regionalization was also, again, in the debate with Costa saying he will fight for regionalization and hopes to see it as leader in the next Parliament. This raised a question in pundits: Is Costa thinking in a 3rd consecutive term? During the debate, Costa and Rio faced each other about the 2018 PISA results from Portugal, in which showed a stagnation in the education system. Rio accused the current Education minister of throwing all responsibility to the previous PSD/CDS government and not taking responsibility for nothing, while Costa said the country is still paying the price of the PSD/CDS policies. Costa also announced "a good suprise" for the Health sector, but no one knows what he means.

The Tancos affair is back again, with a new judge managing the case. Judge Carlos Alexandre, the controversial former judge of the José Sócrates case, wants António Costa to personally testify in court, as former defense minister Azeredo Lopes, named Costa as a witness. The judge says that the complexity of the case demands present testimonies and no handwritten or videoconference testimonies. But, this decision has to pass the Council of State which has to approve, or not, if the PM should go testify in court.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1204507267019751425

Tancos case. Judge wants prime minister to testify and marks former defense minister for February 3

A by-election was called for Caniçada e Soengas parish, Vieira do Minho/Braga, around 600 inhabitants, after disagreements in the local parish cabinet. There were suspicions payments done that created suspicion in the parish, that led the parish cabinet to resign. The by-election is schedule for 12 January 2020 and two lists will be on the ballot:

PS - Socialist Party
PNT - For our land (Independent)

The current cabinet is an Independent one, elected with almost 80% of the votes in 2017. In the 2019 October general elections, the PSD won 46% of the votes against the 32% of the PS.

[Mike88]

Tension in Parliament as André Ventura, CHEGA MP, is scolded by the Speaker for the use of the word "shame":

Parliament was discussing a PSD intervention criticizing the government for having no plan regarding asbestos in schools roofs and in other public buildings. André Ventura, CHEGA MP, said it was shameful that the government had money for everything, like lifetime subsidy for politicians, but no money for asbestos removals. But, it the middle of his speech, Ventura was interrupted by Speaker Ferro Rodrigues as he scolded Ventura for using, over and over again, the word "shame" saying:

The honorable Member uses the word 'shame' and 'shameful' too easily, which often offends the whole Parliament and offends you as well

This created quite a big uproar in the PSD and CDS, while the left parties, PS, BE and CDU, applauded heavily the speaker:

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1205208323131351041

Later, after the debate, Ventura said he was humiliated in public by the Speaker and will ask for an audition with the President of the Republic as, according to him, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is the only person capable of managing the "regular operation of the institutions". He added that he's not trying to victimize himself but wants an apology from the speaker.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JE newspaper on the 2021 Presidential election:

Vote share % for possible candidates:

69.6% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD/CDS)
  4.0% Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU)
  3.1% Ana Gomes
  3.0% Francisco Louçã (BE)
  2.9% André Ventura (CHEGA)
  1.0% Santana Lopes (Alliance)
16.4% Other/Undecided

Poll conducted between 29 November and 3 December 2019. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

This poll seems about right. I myself will vote Marcelo, but if Ana Gomes were to be on the ballot, I would be tempted to vote for her as she has a kind of "break the whole dishes" attitude that I appreciate.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper:

Vote share %:

37.1% PS (+0.2)
26.9% PSD (-0.2)
  9.5% BE (-0.6)
  7.1% CDU (+0.2)
  3.6% CDS (-0.4)
  3.5% PAN (+0.2)
  1.9% CHEGA (+0.6)
  1.1% IL (-0.2)
  0.6% Livre (-0.5)
  8.7% Others/Invalid (-3.0)

Preferred PSD leader and PM candidate: (all voters)

25.0% Luís Montenegro
24.1% Rui Rio
13.8% Miguel Pinto Luz
37.1% None/Undecided
 
Preferred PSD leader and PM candidate: (PSD voters)

27.4% Luís Montenegro
24.2% Rui Rio
15.4% Miguel Pinto Luz
33.0% None/Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 12 December 2019. Polled 1,019 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

2020 Budget: Government approves final document that will be presented tomorrow, at the same time apparent tensions between Costa and Centeno grow.

The government has approved the final draft of the 2020 budget and it will be publicly presented tomorrow by Mário Centeno. But the budget approval was overshadow by tensions between Costa and Centeno, according to the media. Some media outlets are reporting that Costa and Centeno, in the last EU council, entered in a war of words about the 2021-2027 EU budget, designed by Centeno, in which Costa hammered his own Finance Minister for the budget being against Portugal's interests. The media also reports that many EU leaders were stunned by this "awkward" situation between Costa and Centeno. Adding to this, growing internal pressure for Centeno to increase public funding is creating a bad mood in the government. Some pundits are already saying this could be the last budget under Mário Centeno.

https://twitter.com/PlataformaMedi1/status/1205554750902562816

Costa threatens to struck down Mário Centeno' flag measure in the Eurogroup.

After these reports, the PM posted a tweet saying there are no "disagreements" between him and Mário Centeno, and that both are working in a EU common budget.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership races:

PSD-Azores: José Manuel Bolieiro elected leader with 98.5% of the votes.

The mayor of Ponta Delgada, José Manuel Bolieiro, has been elected as the new leader of the PSD-Azores with 98.5% of the votes. He was the only candidate on the ballot and got 1,526 votes out of 1,550 votes. He will led the PSD-Azores in the October 2020 regional elections.

National PSD leadership race: Candidates mobilize their supporters as the voter registration deadline approaches:

At the moment, around 30,000 members of the PSD are registered to vote in the January leadership election, and the number is expected to rise until the end of the next week, the deadline for voter enrolment. The number is still quite low as the PSD has around 107,000 active members and, like above is showed, currently only 30,000 are registered. Bureaucracy and the complex new rules to prevent fraud are the big complaints of PSD members. Nonetheless, candidates are starting to mobilize their supporters. Currently, Rui Rio, incumbent PSD leader, has the support of 11 district party leaders, Montenegro has the support of 5 and Miguel Pinto Luz just 2, but the big Lisbon district:


Support by district leaders for the 3 PSD leadership candidates.
Source: Jornal de Notícias newspaper. Here.

Nonetheless, Montenegro is accusing Rio of helping PSD members registrations in cities that support Rio. In fact, registration has increased dramatically in cities where Rio has big support like Porto, Gaia and Maia. However, Famalicão and Caldas da Rainha, which support Montenegro, have also seen big increases in membership registration. The PSD leadership race is schedule for 11 January 2020, and a second round, if necessary, schedule for 18 January 2020.

[Mike88]

2020 budget: Taxpayers could lose purchase power with IRS changes.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1206704692115329024

PM António Costa signing the final draft of the 2020 budget.

The 2020 budget was delivered this afternoon by the Finance Minister, Mário Centeno, to Parliament. The main headlines are few changes in taxes, with some increases in indirect taxes, although many taxes will increase at the same rate of inflation of 2019, 0.3%. The main policies are the following:

- GDP growth of 1.9% in 2020;
- Budget surplus of 0.2% in 2020;
- Unemployment projected at 6.1% in 2020;

- Increase of the Circulation tax, payed by car owners, by 0.3%;
- Taxes on online gamble and others will increase from the current 15% rate to 25%;
- Vacant or abandoned houses will pay a higher housing tax;
- VAT on electric cars could be deducted in 100%;
- Increase of VAT in bullfights to 23%;
- Increase of 0.7% in pensions, that can be added another possible increase during 2020;
- Housing transactions above 1 million euros will pay higher taxes;
- Transport passes for workers could reduce corporate taxes for companies;
- Increase in the Sugar tax;
- Increase of the tobacco tax and creation of a new tax for heated tobacco;
- Reduction of corporate taxes for small companies with profits until 25,000 euros;
- IRS tables will be updated by just 0.3%, meaning taxpayers could lose purchase power as inflation for 2020 is projected to be at around 1.3%;
- New tax for fast-food and take-away packages;
- Increase of public employees wages of just 0.3% (1,5 euros per month);
- Increase of the minimum wage to 635 euros;
- Investment of 800 million euros in the NHS;

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JE newspaper on budget priorities for 2020:

52.8% More investment on Health/NHS
15.2% Tax cuts for families
  8.3% More investment in Education
  5.7% Cut in VAT on electricity
  3.6% More spending control
  2.7% More support for businesses
11.7% None/Undecided

Poll conducted between 29 November and 3 December 2019. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

After the Ventura and Ferro Rodrigues, Speaker of Parliament, fall out, CHEGA party unveils a big poster in front of Parliament with "Shame" in big letters:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1206296505113464832

CHEGA responds to Ferro Rodrigues with the poster of # shame

Nonetheless, today in Parliament, all parties from left to right criticized Ventura for his tone and for repeating the same thing over and over again and, also, for not proposing real solutions for the main problems in Portugal.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

2020 budget: Taxpayers could lose purchase power with IRS changes.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1206704692115329024

PM António Costa signing the final draft of the 2020 budget.

- Increase of VAT in bullfights to 23%;

And previously it was how big?

[Mike88]

2020 budget: Taxpayers could lose purchase power with IRS changes.

- Increase of VAT in bullfights to 23%;

And previously it was how big?

6%.

[Mike88]

CDS leadership race - More candidates enter the race.

Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, leader of CDS' youth wing (JP), announced his candidacy for the CDS leadership last week. Rodrigues dos Santos, 31 years old, is from the conservative wing of the CDS and defends, for example, the return of the criminalization of abortion and the repeal of same sex marriages in Portugal. He was labeled, in 2018, by Forbes magazine as one of the 30 most influential young people in Europe in the "30 under 30 - Law&Policy 2018". He's the 5th candidate in the race.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1207097784442093568

Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos is the fifth candidate for CDS leadership

Other candidates are Abel Matos Santos, former PSD/CDS cabinet member and former CDS MP Filipe Lobo d'Ávila, CDS MP João Almeida and Carlos Meira.

The CDS will elect a new leader on a party congress schedule for 25 and 26 January 2020.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Who now can be considered as the most serious candidate for CDS leader?

[Mike88]

Who now can be considered as the most serious candidate for CDS leader?

The candidates can be divided in two groups: Abel Matos Santos and Carlos Meira are only mere CDS members and have no chance at all; João Almeida, Filipe Lobo d'Ávila and Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos are the strongest candidates. Filipe Lobo d'Ávila was always very critical of Assunção Cristas leadership, so he can gain the support of delegates who acknowledge that Cristas was a failure. João Almeida seems to be a continuation of Cristas moderate platform, and here enters Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, which can gain a lot of support from the more conservative base of CDS who are fed up with the current moderate tone of the party in many social issues, that CHEGA has stolen from CDS. There's no clear frontrunner, in may view, but all face a daunting task of rebuilding CDS, if that's even possible.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV, CM and Negócios newspaper:

Vote share %:

33.9% PS (-1.0)
25.7% PSD (+0.8 )
10.7% BE (-0.1)
  6.3% CDU (-1.8 )
  6.1% PAN (+1.3)
  5.7% CHEGA (+0.9)
  3.9% CDS (+1.0)
  2.4% IL (-0.5)
  1.1% Livre (-1.6)
  4.2% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.1 António Costa (-0.1)
3.0 Rui Rio (+0.3)
3.0 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
2.8 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
2.8 André Silva (nc)
2.4 Assunção Cristas (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 12 and 17 December 2019. Polled 606 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

PSD 2020 leadership contest: Around 40,000 members are registered to vote.

The PSD has closed the voter registration for the 11 January leadership election. Provisional data shows that 40,475 members can vote in the elections, with the possibility of more 200, or a bit more, be also able to vote as members who sent membership fees by check have to be verified. The number in quite lower than the 70,000 members registered in 2018, but it's almost spot on with the actual number of members that actually cast a ballot, around 42,000. Turnout, at least in percentage point, could reach record levels. Overall, of the 107,378 active members of the party, 40,475 can vote.

The new rules forbid massive payments of fees like in the past. Previously, one member could pay hundreds and even thousands of membership fees, but new rules, approved earlier this year, have abolish massive payments and only individual members can pay their fees as they need to prove their residence, party card, and email and telephone data.

[Mike88]

Overseas voters in Mexico received postal ballots... 2 months after the general elections:

https://twitter.com/lilianapborges/status/1210173789729939457

Only this month, did the Portuguese in Mexico received a ballot paper to vote for the #legislative elections of October.

General election ballot papers arrived only in early December, two months after the election date. At issue are delays in the post office. And when they tried to vote in person, the embassy was closed.

In these elections no vote of Portuguese living in Mexico was counted.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV, CM and Negócios newspaper on the bad situation of the NHS:

Q: Who do you think is primarily responsible for the health crisis?

28.9% The Health minister, Marta Temido
28.1% The PM António Costa
14.4% The Finance minister, Mário Centeno
10.9% All 3 of them
10.1% None of the 3
  7.8% Don't know/Undecided

Poll conducted between 12 and 17 December 2019. Polled 606 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: All candidates made official their candidacies.

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1211755237993791488

Rui Rio, incumbent PSD leader, Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz have all made official their candidacies for the January 11 leadership election. All candidates have tender their papers to the party's headquarters. The manifestos of the 3 candidates will be posted in the PSD official website next Thursday.