Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

A question for crals about the PSD-Azores:

There was a little controversy about the PSD lists because of the inclusion, or not, of Mota Amaral, the 1st president of the Azores government in democracy (1976-1995), in the party lists for the EP elections. Because last time, in 2014, the PSD-Azores was benefited with a 3rd place slot in the lists, this time was Madeira's turn to be benefited. According to the media, the PSD-Azores was forcing Rui Rio to accept Mota Amaral's name in a top spot or there wouldn't be no candidate and the regional party would consider not campaigning at all for the EP elections.

Because you, crals, are more into Azorean politics, how do you make of this tactic?

I suppose it will make no difference in the end because the Azores are a small part of the country. Mota Amaral still has some diehard supporters but PS would probably easily win the region anyway.
It does feel like the PSD has given up on winning back the Azores any time soon. CDS stole some of their support in the last regional election and could get even more.

Yeah, in terms of votes it will have little impact. In 2014, turnout in Azores was only 19.7%!!. This "conflict" between the national PSD and the PSD-Azores is having very little, or none, impact in mainland Portugal, curiously. Nonetheless, you're right that there's the feeling that the PSD has given up on Azores and that is maybe because of Madeira, although i acknowledge that the pressure to be Mota Amaral and no one else was a bit desperate, in my view. Anyway, the elections in Madeira are super close, for the 1st time in almost 50 years, and the PSD is in absolute panic of losing their historic bastion and are putting all their chips in Madeira and, perhaps, neglecting Azores.

My opinion is that by the time of the next Azores regional election, Rio will no longer be leader and someone well will be leading the PSD, and therefore, the "tensions" will cease. And, we don't know how things will be by October 2020.

[Mike88]

Teachers rally against Costa and the PS drew around 50,000 protesters, below expectations:

Teachers unions and organizations wanted to repeat the massive 100,000 teachers rally against the then PM José Socrates and the PS in 2008, but they fell quite short. Around 50,000 teachers protested today against Costa, his government and the PS. Negotiations between teachers and the government are in a stand still with no side conceding anything. Teachers unions want all 9 years and few months of all wage and progression cuts to be repaid and counted, but the government is only offering 2,5 years. The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, approved the government's bill but it could be blocked in Parliament because of the PSD.

The PSD will present a bill to count all 9 years that the teachers want. But, the PSD bill will be, according to the media, quite vague and with few details, like the BE and PCP bills. Some pundits say the PSD is being inconsistent and pandering for the 100,000-150,000 teacher voters and their families, but, nonetheless, the PSD is under pressure to make a clear position.

[Mike88]

António Costa's interview to Público newspaper: "The euro was the biggest bonus that Europe offered to Germany".

Público newspaper has published a long interview to the Prime Minister this Sunday. The interview focuses mainly on European policies and ideas. In the interview, Costa defends the conclusion of the Euro reform, before a new "crisis" emerges, praises Emmanuel Macron's job and criticizes the radical speeches in many EU countries that are damaging liberal democracies. He adds that it would be a mistake to think that because the economy is growing, that all structural problems of the EU are gone and he also said he's favourable to the introduction of European taxes.

[Mike88]

Nepotism in Costa's government? The controversy that's hunting the government:

Since the last government reshuffle, the media has found a strange situation in Costa's government: many secretaries of state and ministers are related one to another by family ties. According to RTP, the state owned TV, there are more than 20 situations in which people with family ties with many PS ministers have been nominated for government positions. The media is investigating this strongly, and almost every week, a new case is found. Last week, Pedro Nuno Santos wife, minister of Infrastructures, was nominated as chief of staff by his successor in the secretary of Parliamentary affairs, Duarte Cordeiro. And this week, it's being reported that the wife of the deputy caucus leader of the PS, Pedro Delgado Alves, was also nominated as chief of staff of the secretary of administrative modernization. The other two big cases are the Interior minister and the Sea affair minister, which are married, and the Social Security minister and minister of the Presidency, which are father and daughter.

The media reports that this kind of family relations in a government are quite rare and unprecedented, and only seen in the USA with the Donald Trump and Ivanka Trump. The main opposition parties are using this to attack, and mock, the government almost every day. PSD leader, Rui Rio, mocked, during a PSD rally, the government saying the current cabinet looks more like a Christmas dinner than a government. Nonetheless, many ministers and secretaries are defending the nomination of their relatives.

[Mike88]

The "Family relations" controversy in Costa's government continues making headlines, plus the ongoing feud between Marcelo and Cavaco because of this controversy:

The number of members of Costa government with some kind of family relation within the government has risen to almost 40, according to Observador newspaper. Many pundits believe this controversy will not affect the PS polling numbers in the immediate time, but could make some damage in the future. Costa has reacted to the controversy saying, in a press release, that all ministers and secretaries have been nominated by competence and experience, and that many of them is the first time they are in politics. He also took the chance to take a jibe towards Cavaco Silva, former PM (1985-1995) and President of the Republic (PR) (2006-2016), saying memory isn't the best quality of the former President.

The former PM and PR took part of this controversy after the current President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, said it was a historic fact that it was Cavaco that sworn in many ministers of Costa's government back in 2015. Cavaco previously said that Costa's current government organization had nothing to do with the one he sworn in while in office. Both, Marcelo and Cavaco, have, therefore, rekindle their long political feud. Nonetheless, Marcelo has sent a warning to Costa: "It is not good to mix family with politics".

PSD and CDS are continuing attacking the government, saying, the PSD for example, that "family relations cannot be preponderant(...) in a Republic like Portugal, this is not a monarchy." BE has also attacked the government and received a violent response from the PS caucus leader, Carlos César.

In other news, Portugal is on the verge of a balance budget, and, perhaps, a surplus. The deficit stood at 0.5% in 2018, the lowest in democracy, and the national debt decreased to 121.5% of GDP. Government expenditure also decreased to 44%, minus 1.7% compared with 2017. GDP and GDP per capita also achieved record numbers, as GDP surpassed the 200 billion euros mark for the 1st time and, it is projected, that in 2019, Portugal will surpass the 20,000 euros GDP per capita mark also for the first time.

[Mike88]

POLITICO's article on the current government controversy:

https://www.politico.eu/article/nepotism-family-relatives-portugal-government-members-prime-minister-antonio-costa-socialist-party/

Family affair rocks Portuguese government. António Costa’s Socialists hit back at accusations of nepotism.

The world may have gotten used to Ivanka and Jared in the White House but family ties are causing a commotion in Portuguese politics.

The scandal has been simmering for some weeks but gained traction on Tuesday, when Spanish newspaper El País published a scathing article on the recent appointments after Portugal's opposition took aim at the government's staffing policy.

(...)

But Luís de Sousa, a research fellow at the University of Lisbon's social sciences institute, said that appointing family members is damaging to public perception of politics.

"The question of possible conflict of interest, though important, might not be the most crucial. It is perception that is important, because it gives the impression you just need a relative to pull the strings so you can have a political career," he said.

[Mike88]

CDS leader, Assunção Cristas, apologizes to PS MP, Isabel Moreira, after a CDS member made a homophobic insult to her:

Assunção Cristas was forced to apologize to PS MP, Isabel Moreira, after a local CDS member, from Barcelos, Braga district, made a homophobic insult towards Isabel Moreira. Assunção Cristas apologized via twitter:

https://twitter.com/CristasAssuncao/status/1111750453799342080

I absolutely repudiate any comment on hate. The CDS is based on respect for all people and from all points of view and condemns comments of this kind. Although I only link his own, I can not but deeply regret what happened and apologize to Isabel Moreira.

Armindo Leite allegedly sent a message, via Facebook messenger, to Isabel Moreira saying "You're a disgrace s*** lesbian, kill yourself". Mr Leite has said it wasn't him that sent that message, adding his account may have been hacked, but, since then, he has refused to talk to the press. Isabel Moreira, although a PS MP, is daughter of former CDS leader, Adriano Moreira. Ms Moreira has thanked Assunção Cristas for her apologies.

Also, a story about the ongoing feud between Madonna and the mayor of Sintra. Singer Madonna was shooting a video clip in an 19th century palace in Sintra, when Sintra city hall received a request to let a horse get inside the palace. Sintra city hall was shocked by the request and said no to Madonna. Madonna then made pressure over the mayor of Sintra, Basílio Horta (PS), and he also said no, adding "there are things that money cannot pay". Madonna and her team tried to change the mind of the mayor and even thought of talking to António Costa in order for him to make some kind of pressure over Basílio Horta, but the decision was final.

Madonna now accuses Portugal of ingratitude and some foreign outlets, like the Huffington Post, write that Madonna will leave Portugal because of this incident, while Portuguese media says this is just one of the reasons Madonna will leave Portugal, the main being she's bored in Portugal.

[Mike88]

Projection of seat distribution by district for the October general elections: (compared with 2015)

  5 Azores
16 Aveiro
  3 Beja
19 Braga
  3 Bragança
  4 Castelo Branco
  9 Coimbra
  3 Évora
  9 Faro
  3 Guarda (-1)
10 Leiria
48 Lisbon (+1)
  6 Madeira
  2 Portalegre
40 Porto (+1)
  9 Santarém
18 Setúbal
  6 Viana do Castelo
  5 Vila Real
  8 Viseu (-1)
  2 Europe
  2 Outside Europe

This is a projection done with the numbers of registered voters in early 2019. The official distribution will be known in June/July, but the Electoral Commission says that the final distribution may be equal to this projection.

[Former President tack50]

What's the minimum threshold to get a seat? With those seats, it would be around 1.75% de facto (in order to get 1 for Lisbon)

[Mike88]

What's the minimum threshold to get a seat? With those seats, it would be around 1.75% de facto (in order to get 1 for Lisbon)

In Lisbon, yes, you would have to get around 1.7/1.8% to win a seat, while in Porto, 2% plus a bit more would be enough to win a seat. Overall, the threshold to win seats, by district, and according to my math, is the following: (with a small margin of error)

15.1% Azores
  6.0% Aveiro
20.0% Beja
  4.5% Braga
19.0% Bragança
17.7% Castelo Branco
  8.0% Coimbra
19.0% Évora
  8.0% Faro
18.0% Guarda
  7.5% Leiria
  1.8% Lisbon
10.0% Madeira
22.0% Portalegre
  2.1% Porto
  8.0% Santarém
  4.5% Setúbal
11.8% Viana do Castelo
15.0% Vila Real
  8.5% Viseu
23.0% Europe
23.0% Outside Europe

Of course, and because of the rules of the D'Hondt method, the margin between the first and second parties can change a bit the % threshold in districts that elect 2 or 3 MPs, for example.

[Mike88]

Alliance in crisis? Many members are leaving the party disappointed with Santana Lopes:

Pedro Santana Lopes new party, Alliance, seems to be, according to the press, in a bit of a crisis. Many party members are disappointed with Santana Lopes and his lack of leadership. At least two high profile members left the party, with one even apologizing to everyone he asked to join the Alliance, saying it was mistake. Another former party member, that left the party this week, accused Santana Lopes of "lack of professionalism" and of leading a bunch of amateurs.

The Alliance also has problems in Madeira, where there's an ongoing leadership battle for the branch of the party there. According to the media, the party chose a new party team with a new leader, but the current leader refuses to leave and step aside.

[Mike88]

"Familygate" scandal causes the first resignations in the government:

The "Familygate" scandal, name the media has coined it, continues dominating headlines, with new cases almost every day. This week, it was revealed that the secretary of Environment nominated his cousin as his deputy. His deputy resigned immediately after the story broke. The secretary, at first, didn't resigned and had the support of his superior, the minister of Environment, Matos Ferreira. But, many in the PS seem to be panicking over this scandal, fearing it will make the party numbers go down even more. In the last few days, many PS MPs and members have started to criticized the government. Today, the secretary of Environment caved in and resigned, adding he didn't want to be a problem to the government.

Costa, during the PM Q&A today in Parliament, was heavily attacked by the PSD and he suggested the idea of creating somekind of criteria to prevent this kind of nominations, one week, or so, after he downplayed the controversy.

The opposition, particularly the PSD, is using heavily this scandal to attack the PS and Costa. With polls, at least for the EP elections, showing the Social Democrats almost catching up with the Socialists, the party is going for the jugular. But, Cavaco Silva is embarrassing his own party. It's not the first time the former PM and PR puts his party in an awkward position. Cavaco Silva has been also attacking Costa because of the "Familygate" and is adding that in his governments (1985-1995), things like this never happened. Well, that's a lie. The media is also digging up all the front pages of the mid 90's where the scandals, surrounding Cavaco's 3th cabinet, were making headlines. During his 3rd term, many of Cavaco's minister and close supporters nominated their wives for governmental posts, which, at that time, created the view that the PSD and Cavaco were attached to power.
 
It was also announced that Costa has ordered a full review of all government posts to prevent any new revelations by the media.

[Mike88]

Interesting data on how political leaders are being perceived on Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.):

Week 1-5 April 2019.

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic:

38% Positive
29% Negative
33% Neutral

António Costa, PS leader and Prime Minister:

46% Negative
20% Positive
34% Neutral

Rui Rio, PSD leader:

28% Positive
27% Negative
45% Neutral

Analysis conducted by ISCTE-IUL, University Institute of Lisbon.

[Mike88]

CDS approves lists for the 2019 general elections:

The CDS has approved the main candidates for the 2019 October general elections. The lists were approved with 80% support from the party's national council. Assunção Cristas announced the names early Saturday morning. The main surprises are the inclusion of journalists in the lists (Sebastião Bugalho and Raquel Abecassis, former reporter of RR radio, a Catholic radio) and the candidacy of a PSD dissident in Outside of Europe constituency. Assunção Cristas has also changed her constituency from Leiria to Lisbon.

The main head candidates by district are the following:

Azores: To be chosen by the regional party
Aveiro: João Almeida, incumbent CDS MP
Beja: Inês Palma Teixeira
Braga: Telmo Correia, incumbent CDS MP
Bragança: Nuno Moreira, son of former CDS leader Adriano Moreira
Castelo Branco: Assunção Vaz Pato
Coimbra: Rui Lopes da Silva, former RTP reporter
Évora: Paulo Pessoa Carvalho, pro bullfighting activist
Faro: João Rebelo, incumbent CDS MP
Guarda: Henrique Monteiro
Leiria: Raquel Abecassis, former journalist
Lisbon:Assunção Cristas, CDS leader
Madeira: To be chosen by the regional party
Portalegre: José Manuel Rato Nunes
Porto: Cecília Meirelles, incumbent CDS MP
Santarém: Patrícia Fonseca, incumbent CDS MP
Setúbal: Nuno Magalhães, CDS caucus leader
Viana do Castelo: Filipe Anacoreta Correia, incumbent CDS MP
Vila Real: Patrick Alves
Viseu: Hélder Amaral, incumbent CDS MP
Europe: Melissa da Silva
Outside Europe: Gonçalo Nuno Santos, PSD dissident

[Mike88]

PAN open to support either a PS or PSD government:

PAN, People-Animals-Nature, is willing to support a PS led government or a PSD led government after the October general elections. PAN wants to strongly increase their representation in Parliament, and, André Silva, the sole PAN MP in the chamber, wants PAN to have a strong influence on matters of government. Nonetheless, a support for either the PS or PSD depends on what the two main parties are willing to compromise in their manifestos.

PAN is currently polling somewhere between 2-3% of the votes, which could give them a maximum of 3/4 seats.

[Mike88]

Constitutional Court validates André Ventura's new right-wing party Enough!. It is the 24th legal party in Portugal now.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from April:

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.7)
27.3% PSD (+3.4)
  8.5% BE (-0.4)
  8.5% CDS (-1.2)
  7.0% CDU (-0.7)
  2.2% PAN (nc)
  1.6% Alliance (-0.2)
  7.4% Others/Invalid (-0.7)
  2.9% Undecided (+0.9)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

15.0 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.4)
  9.4 António Costa (+0.2)
  8.9 Catarina Martins (-0.5)
  8.3 Rui Rio (+0.4)
  7.9 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.3)
  7.9 Assunção Cristas (nc)

Preffered PM:

51.0% António Costa (-2.8 )
30.5% Rui Rio (+2.8 )

Poll conducted between 30 March and 1 April 2019. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

More polling.

Eurosondagem poll from April:

Vote share %:
   
36.9% PS (-0.4)
25.0% PSD (-0.2)
  8.4% CDS (-0.1)
  7.8% BE (-0.3)
  7.3% CDU (+0.2)
  3.5% Alliance (+0.2)
  2.5% PAN (+0.1)
  8.6% Others/Invalid (+0.5)

Popularity ratings: (Approve; Disapprove; margin)

70.0%;   8.1%, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa +61.9%
52.5%; 25.7%, António Costa +26.8%
47.1%; 29.4%, Rui Rio +17.7%
41.7%; 28.5%, Jerónimo de Sousa +13.2%
39.3%; 26.6%, Parliament +12.7%
40.2%; 28.7%, Government +11.5%
40.0%; 30.4%, Catarina Martins +9.6%
39.6%; 31.3%, Assunção Cristas +8.3%

Poll conducted between 7 and 11 April 2019. Polled 1,019 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

"Familygate" scandal continues. Another secretary resigns because of families ties within the government, as the PS announces policies to prevent more cases:

Another secretary of Costa's government was force to resign after it was revealed he was the husband of the secretary of state to Culture, Ângela Ferreira. He was nominated on 28 March, but only lasted a few days in the government. To make things more ridiculous, his appointment order was published yesterday, April 12th, and his exoneration order published a few hours later. As the scandal continues to dominate headlines, the PS has proposed new legislation to prevent this kind of cases, but the legislation received negative reviews by the press. According to the media, the PS legislation would only forbid direct nominations, someone nominating someone of her/his family, while crossed nominations, someone nominating someone from the family of a government minister/secretary, would continue to be allowed. Even according to the media, of the 40+ cases reported, only one would be punished by the PS bill.

The opposition, PSD mainly, refuses any change or creation of new laws saying this is an ethical issue that cannot be resolved by legislation. And to add to all of this, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, has made an unprecedented move. Marcelo has wrote a draft bill to resolve the "familygate" scandal, an unprecedented move because President don't have any legislative powers. Marcelo says he will sent his draft to the government.

[Mike88]

Government decrees emergency due to the drivers of dangerous goods strike as many gas stations across the country are without fuel:

The nationwide strike, and without time limit, of the drivers of dangerous goods is creating fuel shortages across the country. The government has decreed emergency in order for fuel to arrive in many gas stations across the country. The army, and others, are being ordered by the government to refuel stations. At the same time, airplanes in Lisbon and Faro airports are being delayed for lack of fuel. Unions want wage increases, plus a new status and changes in their collective contracts. Unions and the government will meet, this evening, to find some kind of a compromise.

Nonetheless, there are reports of stations closed and long lines of cars waiting to enter gas stations.

[Mike88]

Also, this strange development:

Government considers resigning if Parliament forces it to solve the teachers demands:

Some media outlets are reporting, after a source close to the PM leaked, that the government is considering resigning if Parliament forces it to cave in to the teachers unions demands. PSD, CDS, BE and CDU all agree that teachers wages and career progressions should be repaid, all 9 years, which goes against the 2 years the PS and the government is proposing. The government says that paying all 9 years is unsustainable and could damage public finances.

[Mike88]

Government decrees emergency due to the drivers of dangerous goods strike as many gas stations across the country are without fuel:

The nationwide strike, and without time limit, of the drivers of dangerous goods is creating fuel shortages across the country. The government has decreed emergency in order for fuel to arrive in many gas stations across the country. The army, and others, are being ordered by the government to refuel stations. At the same time, airplanes in Lisbon and Faro airports are being delayed for lack of fuel. Unions want wage increases, plus a new status and changes in their collective contracts. Unions and the government will meet, this evening, to find some kind of a compromise.

Nonetheless, there are reports of stations closed and long lines of cars waiting to enter gas stations.

No agreement between the government and unions was reached. The strike will continue although fuel will be distributed to Hospitals, Harbours and Airports. Fuel shortages will continue, it seems, in many gas stations across the country, until Easter Sunday, at least.

[Mike88]

Update on the energy crisis in Portugal: The government creates network of 310 gas stations to be used, but fuel is rationed to 15 liters per car.

No deal is in sight between workers unions and supply companies, meaning the current strike could last several days, so the government has announced the creation of a network of 310 gas stations, across the country, that can be used, but fuel will be rationed to 15 liters per car.

[Mike88]

JUST IN: Energy crisis is over. Unions and supply companies reached an agreement after a 10 hour meeting and have ended the strike, the government has just announced.

[Mike88]

Controversy surrounding the new basic healthcare law: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa threatens to veto a new basic healthcare law that forbids Public-Private Partnerships, as PS-BE negotiations seem confusing.

The new basic healthcare law continues to create controversy. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, will veto any new law that forbids Public-Private Partnerships in the management of Hospitals. According to Expresso newspaper, a source close to the President says:

It's absurd to completely rule out the possibility of the State working in partnership with private companies in the NHS, because the law must allow successive governments to have room for maneuver without constantly changing the law.

This happens as negotiations between PS and BE seem confusing. Wednesday, BE announced that they had reached an agreement with the government to forbid Public-Private Partnerships and lowering the cost of fees payed by patients. But, just a few hours later, the government denied any agreement with BE saying it was just a draft. Adding to this, this also happens as the government makes another U-turn about the management of Braga city Hospital. The Private management of the Hospital ended last year, and the government decided to not renovate the contract. After that, a new contest to find a new private management was open, but, now  the contest was terminated by the government and will only restart in 2024.