Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET)

[Beet]

I know I'm the resident pessimist (although I did predict a Hillary win), but IMO this only gives Hillary a fighting chance going into Super Tuesday and beyond. Had she lost here, she would have been going into Super Tuesday with only a win-that-felt-like-a-tie in Iowa, getting blown out in New Hampshire, getting upset in Nevada, and only winning South Carolina which was in the bag for her from the beginning. Basically all of the media narrative would have been against her for like a week and a half. She needed a win here just for a chance to have her coalition manifest itself. On the other hand, arguably Sanders needed a win here as well. But Hillary needed it more. Sanders has support on social media so his supporters are visible. The show of support was important to counteract the misleading notion that people in certain social circles have that everyone is only for Sanders. It was important to show that a lot of people do support Hillary and they aren't stupid.

[Illiniwek]

The entrance pollster must be British.

Very true.

[Gass3268]

Jesus Chris csx trim down your horrendous sig.

Please for the love God shorten it!

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Bernie is only down by 1 in Carson City and down by 2 in White Pine County. There's 5 precincts left in CC and 1 left in White Pine. He could definitely take the lead in CC, not sure about White Pine.

[Old Man Willow]

When can we expect either of them to speak?

[Illiniwek]

Hillary very soon. Bernie afterwards.

[user12345]

A bunch of Bernie hacks on Facebook are passing around a screenshot alleging Hillary bussed in 2 charter busses of homeless people and paid them to vote for her. Sureeeeeee.

[Holmes]

Sanders will likely still be in an upwards trajectory until March. If he's still losing massively when multiple large states are voting per week, then it's over. If Sanders survives March then a lot of whiter and northern states start voting.

Doesn't matter. If she wins big in South Carolina and Super Tuesday, there'll be more pressure for the superdelegates to coalesce around Clinton, ballooning her lead even more that it'll be nigh impossible to pass it, and remember it's a slow drip of states that vote after March 15th until April 19/26, which is NY, PA, MD, CT, DE, and RI, and those will all probably be a 50-50 wash between both candidates anyway if it's still competitive by then (and there's no reason to believe it will still be).

[136or142]

Politics1.com @Politics1com
P2016: In the 5 black majority precincts in the Nevada, Clinton defeated Sanders there by 95%-5% vote.

[This account no longer in use.]

Jesus Chris csx trim down your horrendous sig.

I lost a bet, and a bet is a bet.

[Reginald]

A bunch of Bernie hacks on Facebook are passing around a screenshot alleging Hillary bussed in 2 charter busses of homeless people and paid them to vote for her. Sureeeeeee.

Literal FreeRepublic-tier paranoia.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

A bunch of Bernie hacks on Facebook are passing around a screenshot alleging Hillary bussed in 2 charter busses of homeless people and paid them to vote for her. Sureeeeeee.

For every busload of homeless people there's a busload of Sanders campaign workers who voted in New Hampshire.

[IceSpear]

Politics1.com @Politics1com
P2016: In the 5 black majority precincts in the Nevada, Clinton defeated Sanders there by 95%-5% vote.

Holy sh**t. SC is gonna be a thrashing!

[jaichind]

In terms of county delegates I think Clinton is more likely to win by a margin closer to 4% than 5%, a bit less than 2008.

[Asian Nazi]

Politics1.com @Politics1com
P2016: In the 5 black majority precincts in the Nevada, Clinton defeated Sanders there by 95%-5% vote.

I'm guessing that African Americans who live in mostly African American neighborhoods will break for Clinton a lot more than African Americans who live in white ones.  This could be a bad sign for Sanders as SC is obviously more segregated than NV.

[Sorenroy]

Politics1.com @Politics1com
P2016: In the 5 black majority precincts in the Nevada, Clinton defeated Sanders there by 95%-5% vote.

Holy sh**t. SC is gonna be a thrashing!

Just a reminder that this likely came from Clinton shut-outs where Sanders didn't get 15% of the vote. Not saying that a 95-5 lead isn't massive, but know where it comes from.

[Zanas]

So the entrance poll just got rectified once more with a bunch more respondents, making for a 1024 sample. Final demographic breakdown is :
Whites 59% : Sanders 49-47
Blacks 13% : Clinton 76-22
Latino 19% : Sanders 53-45
Asian 4% : subsample too small
Other 4% : subsample too small

By my calculations among gender, income or other near 50-50 splits, the final entrance poll scores are Clinton 50.8 - Sanders 46.3. Which, when you count away the uncommitted and look at the horse race, is actually 52.3-47.7, pretty exactly where the results are right now. So it seems that the delegate allocation didn't advantage either candidate.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Jesus Chris csx trim down your horrendous sig.

I lost a bet, and a bet is a bet.

Good, good.

[Nyvin]

I'm starting to think Hillary has the Dem nomination nearly locked up at this point.

[defe07]

How exactly is Sanders supposed to win with results like this again?

Try and come close in SC, hope for Super Tuesday wins?

He'll lose by about 15% in SC and will surely win 4 states on Super Tuesday. He could swing a few and could try to close the gap in the really strong Hillary states. If he won NV, I'd say he loses SC by less than 10% and could win up to half of the Super Tuesday states. But he didn't and he'll have an average performance on Super Tuesday.

[Asian Nazi]

So the entrance poll just got rectified once more with a bunch more respondents, making for a 1024 sample. Final demographic breakdown is :
Whites 59% : Sanders 49-47
Blacks 13% : Clinton 76-22
Latino 19% : Sanders 53-45
Asian 4% : subsample too small
Other 4% : subsample too small

By my calculations among gender, income or other near 50-50 splits, the final entrance poll scores are Clinton 50.8 - Sanders 46.3. Which, when you count away the uncommitted and look at the horse race, is actually 52.3-47.7, pretty exactly where the results are right now. So it seems that the delegate allocation didn't advantage either candidate.

I still refuse to believe that Clinton did that well with whites or that Sanders did that well with Latinos.  Maybe Latino voters just skewed really really young?  Possible I guess.

[DavidB.]

Jesus Chris csx trim down your horrendous sig.

I lost a bet, and a bet is a bet.

Putting you on ignore until it is trimmed down.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Bernie is only down by 1 in Carson City and down by 2 in White Pine County. There's 5 precincts left in CC and 1 left in White Pine. He could definitely take the lead in CC, not sure about White Pine.

Close Counties:

Delegates elected so far:

Carson City: 64-63 Hillary; 127 total
White Pine County: 41-39 Hillary; 80 total
Stoney County: 31-31 Tied; 62 total
Churchill County: 43-43 Tied; 86 total

Delegates to be elected:

Carson City: 170-127 = 43 to be selected
White Pine County: 93-80 = 13 to be selected
Storey County: 76-62 = 14 to be selected
Churchill County: 92-86 = 6 to be selected

[This account no longer in use.]

Jesus Chris csx trim down your horrendous sig.

I lost a bet, and a bet is a bet.

Bruh just log out.

Well, that was quite unprovoked.

[Sorenroy]

As per CBS's Twitter:

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