Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET)

[RaphaelDLG]

yeah, he's in a spot where he shouldn't spend much time in SC, but spend it trying to turn 5 states on Super Tuesday. The problem is that 6 Super Tuesday primaries (VA/GA/AL/TN/AR/TX) are in states whose electorates have some big similarities to SC.

IMO he should punt all southern states/any state with a large black vote until he has money/favorable media coverage again because Clinton is just way, way too formidable there for it not to be a critical mismanagement of resources.  To win obviously he can't keep getting murdered delegate wise but in terms of the media narrative I think winning states is probably more valuable.  I'm sure that's what Weaver/Devine are going to do. 

Also I'm just generally really surprised he hasn't got Howie Deaned yet, although I guess we live in a different age/there's still plenty of time for that to happen.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Yeah. He needs to punt the black heavy states (SC and those on Super Tuesday). If he can win VT, CO, MN, MA, and OK on Super Tuesday, he has a chance to do well the following weekend where he might be able to win 3/4 contests (ME, KS, and NE).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So, it's now 52.7 - 47.2, the same 5.5% margin she had in 2008.

[Illiniwek]

It must be a conspiracy that those darn 30 precincts from non-Clark counties won't man up and report!

[RaphaelDLG]

It must be a conspiracy that those darn 30 precincts from non-Clark counties won't man up and report!

DWS driving her SUV around in the rural Nevadan desert tampering with the results confirmed. 

Also, aliens.

[Shadows]

Sanders got 3M post Iowa, 7M post NH, already 4m post NV with money still coming in now. Very likely he will end up with 30-35 m at least in January. Surely there will be a record haul.

Sanders needs to a good amount of delegates in Super Tuesday....hopefully with 5 wins out of 11. He tried hardbut she is winning the black votes anyways..

[Adam Griffin]

Off this topic - good analysis on Vox basically backing up the common sense idea that one does not win the most Latino-heavy parts of the state, by losing the Latino vote by 8. And therefore it's obvious Sanders won whites by a bigger margin than 2.

Haven't read it yet and am not sure of the extent of the areas in question, but it's absolutely possible if one candidate had a much better door-to-door canvassing operation in those neighborhoods when compared to the rest of the state/electorate. Clinton was on the ground for almost a year in Nevada and even from the beginning, she knew that Latinos would be one of the most likely bellwethers in that state.

[jimrtex]

Does anyone know if people who are at work get time off to caucus at 11am local time ?

On the other hand, 11am on a Saturday should be good for student turnout.

In past elections, Democrats have held workplace caucuses. Since the hotels and casinos are unionized, there was speculation that some of these might go 100% for one candidate or the other.

[Adam Griffin]

yeah, he's in a spot where he shouldn't spend much time in SC, but spend it trying to turn 5 states on Super Tuesday. The problem is that 6 Super Tuesday primaries (VA/GA/AL/TN/AR/TX) are in states whose electorates have some big similarities to SC.

I don't think TN necessarily fits in with the rest. Sanders doesn't have a Southern problem: he has a black problem. That's pretty synonymous in a Democratic primary, sure, but TN is considerably less disadvantageous than GA and AL: only a little over half as black. AR is about the same as TN, but off the table for obvious reasons. I think he should try in TN, but it's probably too late now: they just opened an office in Chattanooga and it's the fourth largest city.

VA is comparably black, but I think his bigger obstacle is the mentality of a lot of whites who live there. If we believe some recent polling, then he's possibly in striking distance there. That ceiling with whites is probably just a little bit below where he needs it to be in order to win, though.

He absolutely needs to put something into TX; if he's doing relatively well with Latinos nationally (like he did in NV - whether he won a majority or a very large minority), then he can't afford to just forgo delegates in the largest contest of the night. The difference between trying and not trying there could be more in terms of delegates than he got in IA.

If he doesn't win several states in the first half of March and hold Hillary to single-digit victories in most other states where blacks are less than <15% of the population, then he doesn't have a pathway beyond that. Even that is still not enough long-term. His Bern Rate therefore needs to be high - he needs to worry about keeping delegates as even as possible and earning as much media momentum as possible upon which to build. If he does that, coffers will replenish later. I don't think money is a huge problem yet for them, anyway, but the money won't matter in a month if he bungles this.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, I never understood Bernie's decision to concede Texas (though I'm very happy he did!) Even if he has no path to victory there, he's leaving a lot of delegates on the table considering it's a huge state and proportional.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Off this topic - good analysis on Vox basically backing up the common sense idea that one does not win the most Latino-heavy parts of the state, by losing the Latino vote by 8. And therefore it's obvious Sanders won whites by a bigger margin than 2.

Haven't read it yet and am not sure of the extent of the areas in question, but it's absolutely possible if one candidate had a much better door-to-door canvassing operation in those neighborhoods when compared to the rest of the state/electorate. Clinton was on the ground for almost a year in Nevada and even from the beginning, she knew that Latinos would be one of the most likely bellwethers in that state.

Hispanics aren't some monolith that only exists in certain precincts. They are 28% of the state's population. And those the vote in those precincts (which isn't all Hispanics) isn't necessarily going to be the same as the vote in the rest of the state. Vox is clearly in the bag for Hillary anyways.

[Xing]

Well, if it's any consolation for us Sanders supporters, assuming it's a 19-16 split in Nevada, Sanders will still be ahead of Clinton in pledged delegates (by 1.) Obviously, that won't be true after South Carolina, but still.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Off this topic - good analysis on Vox basically backing up the common sense idea that one does not win the most Latino-heavy parts of the state, by losing the Latino vote by 8. And therefore it's obvious Sanders won whites by a bigger margin than 2.

Haven't read it yet and am not sure of the extent of the areas in question, but it's absolutely possible if one candidate had a much better door-to-door canvassing operation in those neighborhoods when compared to the rest of the state/electorate. Clinton was on the ground for almost a year in Nevada and even from the beginning, she knew that Latinos would be one of the most likely bellwethers in that state.

Hispanics aren't some monolith that only exists in certain precincts. They are 28% of the state's population. And those the vote in those precincts (which isn't all Hispanics) isn't necessarily going to be the same as the vote in the rest of the state. Vox is clearly in the bag for Hillary anyways.

You need a new gimmick... anyone who challenges the Sandernista narrative is in the bag? C'mon man.

You yourself noted that the entrance polls weren't making sense in relation to the results coming in. I know who you're backing, and you know who I am, but this isn't a spin room for God's sake.

[RaphaelDLG]

Off this topic - good analysis on Vox basically backing up the common sense idea that one does not win the most Latino-heavy parts of the state, by losing the Latino vote by 8. And therefore it's obvious Sanders won whites by a bigger margin than 2.

Haven't read it yet and am not sure of the extent of the areas in question, but it's absolutely possible if one candidate had a much better door-to-door canvassing operation in those neighborhoods when compared to the rest of the state/electorate. Clinton was on the ground for almost a year in Nevada and even from the beginning, she knew that Latinos would be one of the most likely bellwethers in that state.

Hispanics aren't some monolith that only exists in certain precincts. They are 28% of the state's population. And those the vote in those precincts (which isn't all Hispanics) isn't necessarily going to be the same as the vote in the rest of the state. Vox is clearly in the bag for Hillary anyways.

C'mon, Vox is nowhere close to Washington Post, Slate, or even New York Times levels of in the bag! 

They have a few hackish columnists and a few that are brainwashed by the beltway consensus, but I think they are much fairer than most DC outlets, tbh.

And most importantly their point here is blatantly logical.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL at jfern. He makes Winfield and Politico look like David Broder.

[jaichind]

Will they publish the raw vote share count ?

[/]

I'm thinking probably CD2 and maybe CD4, but does anyone have the exact numbers?

[Tender Branson]

This turned out relatively uncool after all ...

[Landslide Lyndon]

Are they ever going to report the last 4%?

[Joe Republic]

A day late, but here's a snapshot of the fun in my precinct: https://youtu.be/XhghaI-geJQ

Democracy!

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Bernie Sanders seems to be going along with the "we won the Latino vote" narrative. Ignorance or dishonesty?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Bernie wins Storey County 38-35. They finally released their last precinct's result.

[RaphaelDLG]

Bernie Sanders seems to be going along with the "we won the Latino vote" narrative. Ignorance or dishonesty?

Neither, though obviously he didn't win the Latino vote.

[Oak Hills]

Bernie Sanders seems to be going along with the "we won the Latino vote" narrative. Ignorance or dishonesty?

Spin, like any other politician would do in that situation.

[/]

Could Clinton still win Carson City with the 4% of precincts remaining?