Japan 2016 - July 10

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

That DPJ-JIP merger is amazing lol.  Whatever it takes to stop Abe I guess.

I for one heartily support this united front of the useless squishy third way center-center-center-left and the flashy 'libertarian' hard right against the war crimes apologist hard right. Mainstream Japanese establishment conservatism ain't what it used to be, and what it used to be was never so great anyway.

[jaichind]

Proposed names for new party are

立憲民主党 - Constitutional Democratic Party
民主共生党 - Democratic Life Party
新生民主党 - Renewal Democratic Party
改革民主党 - Reform Democratic Party
立憲民政党 - Constitutional Civic Party
民主党・国民連合 - Democratic Party - National Alliance
民主党・改革連合 - Democratic Party - Reform Alliance
民主自由党 - Democratic Liberal Party !!??
民権党 - Civil Rights Party

The funniest one of all would be Democratic Liberal Party which would put Japan literally in a Tweedledum and Tweedledee situation with Liberal Democrat Party vs Democrat Liberal Party.  That idea was  proposed by 江田憲司( Eda Kenji) who was with LDP for a long time before joining YP and then creating the YP splinter UP which merged with JRP into JIP becoming co-leader of JIP with Hashimoto.  He was the force behind most of the UP MPs hanging on in JIP and merging JIP with DPJ.  By the party name he proposes he clearly wants an Center-Right libertarian opposition to take in LDP-KP leaving the Center-Left space to JCP and SDP.  In other words he is pushing for the new party to be a less hawkish version of YP.  While I back this idea as I am for the anti-LDP libertarian Right in Japan, this name is just to absurd to pass.

BTW the Civil Rights Party was proposed by 柿沢未途(Kakizawa Mito) who was on the Right wing of the DPJ before joining YP and joining up with UP with Eda and ending up in JIP.   It was has support for a DPJ-JIP alliance that provoked the JIP split back in the Summer of 2015 in the first place.  The name Civil Rights Party was really the alternative name to YP splinter UP (Unity Party).  So  Kakizawa is really pushing for the new party to be another UP/YP.  Same idea as Eda.

Anyway, the most likely scenario is still Constitutional Democratic Party since that name is the most likely name to promote the JCP alliance and for JCP to be comfortable to withdraw a bunch of candidates in the 1- seat districts.  

[jaichind]

One causality of DPJ-JIP alliance and likely merger is that the DPJ-NPD alliance is off in Hokkaido.  NPD which was the surviving LDP postal rebellion splinter is a on again off again ally of DPJ in Hokkaido.  NPD's relationship with JIP has always been poor as NDP sees JIP as a rival for the Center-Right anti-LDP splace in Hokkaido.   It seems now that NPD will ally with LDP to strike back at DPJ-JIP.  NPD will also support LDP in the Upper House elections as well as the Hokkaido 5th District by-election.  With JCP withdrawing its candidate to support DPJ then the Hokkaido 5th District by-election will be

DPJ (backed by JIP SDP PLP JCP)
LDP (backed by KP NPD PJK)

Not clear what ORA's position would be but I assume tacit support for LDP. 

As for NPD backing LDP in 2016 Upper House elections, it will not make much of a difference.  LDP was on course to win 2 out of the 3 seats with or without NPD support.  Of course if LDP support falls significantly (possible if the current failure of Abenomics becomes more apparent over the next few months) then at the LDP has built a bigger buffer before the 3 seats in Hokkaido becomes 2 DPJ 1 LDP instead.  In the Lower House elections, NPD's defection to LDP will hurt DPJ since NPD does have pockets of strength in parts of Hokkaido. 

[jaichind]

Most of the efforts between DPJ and JCP has been talks on how to have JCP withdraw candidates in the 1- seat districts to give a united opposition to LDP-KP.  I wonder why these talks are not extended to districts which are 2- seats or higher as there are all sorts of theoretical opportunities and risk mitigation for the anti-LDP bloc in those areas.  Namely

北海道   (Hokkaido) - In this 3- seat district, LDP will nominate 2, DPJ-JIP will nominate 2, ORA will nominate 1 and JCP will nominate 1.   Looking at the vote bases of of these 4 blocs it is clear that it will be LDP 2 DPJ-JIP 1.  But if DPJ-JIP run 1 candidate and have part of their vote base tactically vote for JCP then it could be LDP 1 DPJ-JIP 1 JCP 1.

神奈川   (Kanagawa) - In this 4- seat district, LDP will nominate 1 but back an ex-YP independent incumbent for a second seat, KP will nominate 1, ORA will nominate 1, DPJ-JIP will nominate 1, JCP will nominate 1.  Given the personal vote of the LDP backed ex-YP independent it seems likely it will be LDP 2 KP 1 DPJ 1.  But if part DPJ-JIP vote base tactically vote for JCP then it will be LDP 1 KP 1 DPJ 1 JCP 1.

愛知(Aichi) - In this 4- seat district which has a historical DPJ lean, LDP will nominate 1, KP will nominate 1, DPJ-JIP will nominate 2, ORA will nominate 1, JCP will nominate 1.   SDP is running a candidate here as well with further splits the non-LDP vote.  The result will be LDP 1 KP 1 DPJ-JIP 1 with DPJ-JIP, ORA, JCP fighting for the last one.  The ORA candidate could be backed by TCJ which means it could win the 4th seat.  This one will be tough but toward the end there might be a need for for DPJ-JIP and JCP to tactically vote for the stronger of the two to block ORA.

京都(Kyoto) - In this 2- seat district, LDP, ORA, DPJ-JIP, JCP will each nominate a candidate.  LDP should win 1 with ORA, DPJ-JIP and JCP fighting for the last seat.   The LDP vote base is shifting over to ORA here and it could be that LDP ORA will win 1 each locking out DPJ-JIP and JCP.  DPJ-JIP and JCP are equally strong here so it would be tough but there would need to have tactical voting to block out ORA.

大阪(Osaka) - In this 4- seat district ORA is taken up almost the entire non-LDP space.  LDP and KP will nominate 1 each, ORA will nominate 2, DPJ-JIP will nominate 1 and JCP will nominate 1.  With JCP only slightly stronger than DPJ-JIP chances are LDP-JP and ORA will win all 4 seats.  DPJ-JIP tactical voting might be needed to prevent a complete sweep by LDP-KP and ORA.

兵庫(Hyōgo) - In this 3- seat district, LDP will nominate 2, ORA will nominate 1, DPJ-JIP will nominate 1, and JCP will nominate 1.  Here the lead LDP and ORA have over DPJ-JIP and JCP separately are so large that it is a foregone conclusions that it will be LDP 2 ORA 1.  Only if DPJ-JIP and JCP united behind one candidate could it take one from LDP.  Tactical voting is not good enough.

広島(Hiroshima) - In this 2- seat district, LDP will nominate 1, DPJ-JIP will nominate 1, ORA will nominate 1, and JCP will nominate 1.  On paper the result should be LDP 1 DPJ 1.  But the ORA candidate if fairly popular and with her personal base plus the ORA base could draw enough votes to win, however unlikely.  Here JCP tactical voting for DPJ-JIP might be needed to make sure ORA does not win.


All these possibilities will be hard to carry out given the hostilely of the local DPJ and especially JIP vote base toward the JCP which I suspect why they are not being discussed.  But not trying out these idea just means handing LDP-KP or ORA more seats.  

[jaichind]

DPJ-JIP are now working on getting PLP and AEJ to disband to merge into this new party.  The lobbying are taking place at the party level as well as the individual MP levels (the former YP or former AEJ MPs).

[jaichind]

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/02/21/national/politics-diplomacy/with-new-tv-show-osakas-hashimoto-plots-return-to-public-eye/#.Vs2xivkrIuU

Hashimoto will now host a new TV show to get back into the public eye.  He will most likely, for now, not run for office in 2016 elections but he will be back in some form to politics one way or another soon enough.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I thought NPD was center-left, not center-right.

[jaichind]

I thought NPD was center-left, not center-right.

Not really,  NPD is a clientelist party centered around  鈴木宗男 (Suzuki Muneo) who was a key kingpin of LDP in Hokkaido.  He was close to the postmaster clique so he bolted from LDP in 2005 over the post office reforms creating NPD and taking his LDP faction in Hokkaido with him. Note that he was already in trouble with the law by that time over corruption charges so forming his own party was key for him to push the narrative that his legal troubles stem from a vengeful LDP.  Anyway NPD adopted center-left positions even as its DNA was center-right to aid in his alliance with DPJ which was necessary to be competitive with LDP-KP.  He was also able to build support for NPD around Hokkaido regionalism.  I guess this time around he sees the JIP as too much of a threat to his vote base so he is going with LDP, for now. 

[jaichind]

The national LDP decided not to contest the Kyoto 3rd district by-election claiming that the sentiment in the district is too negative on LDP to bother running a candidate.  The local Kyoto LDP will still try get someone to run.  Not clear if LDP will back KP, if they run, or perhaps ORA, they will for sure run, or just allows for a free vote by LDP supporters.

[jaichind]

New Nikkei poll is interesting.  It has

Abenomics at 31/50 approval/disapproval
Abe Cabinet at 47/39 approval/disapproval
April 2017 Tax increase 33/58 approval/disapproval
BOJ negative rates 23/53 approval/disapproval

Hopes DPJ-JIP merger 25/64
LDP PR support            33
DPJ-JIP PR support       13

So net effect is Abe economic policies are falling flat on its face but Abe is much more popular than his policies while DPJ-JIP merger is unlikely to be able to take advantage of this situation.

[jaichind]

The center-right wing of DPJ which take a dim view of alliance with JCP by DPJ-JIP have mostly accepted it for now but is pushing for an alliance or at least tactical understanding with ORA.  The ORA itself is trying to rope in ARG (the JIP splinter 改革結集の会 recently got an official English name called Vision of Reform.)  So I guess I will start calling it VOR instead of ARG.  Anyway, various parts of DPJ and/or JIP are also working to bring VOR AEJ and other ex-YP independents into its Grand Alliance for the Upper House elections in the Summer. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The center-right wing of DPJ which take a dim view of alliance with JCP by DPJ-JIP have mostly accepted it for now but is pushing for an alliance or at least tactical understanding with ORA.  The ORA itself is trying to rope in ARG (the JIP splinter 改革結集の会 recently got an official English name called Vision of Reform.)  So I guess I will start calling it VOR instead of ARG.  Anyway, various parts of DPJ and/or JIP are also working to bring VOR AEJ and other ex-YP independents into its Grand Alliance for the Upper House elections in the Summer. 

Good.

I can see most elements of the DPJIP grinning and bearing all this, but will the JCP and the ex-YPers grin and bear each other?

[jaichind]

The growing pessimism on the economy is growing to a point that there are all sorts of rumors that Abe will pull off what he did in 2014 and call a lower House double election in 2016 to get the mandate to delay the 2017 consumer tax increase.  Abe in theory has ruled this out but the rumors will not stop.  It is getting to the point where every Abe public appearance he has to re-rule out this possibility.   

[jaichind]

It seems like in 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 三重(Mie) the JCP agreed to withdraw their candidate pending the Center-Left candidate (PLP in Iwate and DPJ in the other two) pledge to work toward reversing the new Security Law.  This is addition to 熊本(Kumamoto) and 沖縄(Okinawa) where JCP already agreed to back the Center-Left opposition.  As far as the impact on the race this means that in Iwate it will move from leaning PLP to solid PLP, in Miyagi it will move from solid LDP to lean LDP, and in Mie it will move from lean LDP to tossup lean DPJ.

The other areas of opportunities for JCP to withdraw to help the Center-Left would be 山形(Yamagata), 福島(Fukushima), 山梨(Yamanashi), 新潟(Niigata), 長野(Nagano), 滋賀(Shiga), and 大分(Ōita).  In each one of them JCP withdrawing would at least give the Center-Left candidate to win if not making it tossup lean Center-Left over LDP.  Talks are ongoing in those districts.






 

[jaichind]

It is interesting to get some insights on who votes ORA which is positioning itself as a rightist populist party.  At least in the Osaka Governor and Mayoral elections of late 2015 when it was ORA vs LDP (backed by DPJ and JCP), the exit polls show

 

That the ORA vote is dominated by college graduates while LDP+DPJ+JCP vote lean toward those without a college degree.  As for professions, ORA is overweight in housewives and white collar professionals.  This seem to run opposite to the support base other rightists populist parties in the rest of the world.

[Vega]

It's really odd that the postal reform rebels are still around. I know the one that Alberto Fujimori ran under in 2007 folded after the 2012 election.

[jaichind]

It's really odd that the postal reform rebels are still around. I know the one that Alberto Fujimori ran under in 2007 folded after the 2012 election.

There were 3 of them.  NPD, PNP and NPN.  NPD was really about political cover for 鈴木宗男 (Suzuki Muneo) and try to attract anti-Postal Reform rebels from LDP.  NPD now exist mostly as a Hokkaido regional party.  PNP is really about 亀井静香(Kamei Shizuka) who was a factional leader of the LDP (he ran against Koizumi in 2001 and 2003 LDP leadership contests and came in second in 2003.) who was opposed to postal reform and he also got a few anti-postal reform LDP MPs to join him.  PNP was the party that Fujimori ran on the PR list in 2007.  It mostly folded in early 2013 when the last members defected back to LDP leaving Kamei by himself.   Kamei is now a pro-DPJ independent MP.  NPN is interesting.   It was founded 田中康夫 (Tanaka Yasuo) who was elected as the governor of 長野(Nagano) defeating the pro-LDP candidate on a libertarian right platform in 2002.  On can argue that NPN is really a precursor to YP.  NPN counted as a postal reform rebel party most because Tanaka took advantage of the LDP postal reform rebellion to take in some LDP rebels and build his anti-LDP libertarian right party.  It mostly flopped and could only go anywhere as an ally of DPJ and degenerated into a personal party of Tanaka abandoning a lot of its original reform ideals.  Its failure paved the way and space for YP to emerge in 2009.  It is mostly defunct.

One can argue that PJK should also count as a postal reform rebel party.  PJK really came from SPJ which was founded in 2010 by old postal rebel 平沼赳夫(Hiranuma Takeo).  This stream of postal reform rebels is the hawk extreme right which now make up PJK.  Of course Hiranuma himself went back to LDP in late 2015 after leaving it in 2005 over postal reform.

[jaichind]

There seems to be now talks between DPJ and Ozawa about PLP also merging into this new DPJ-JIP party.  This might gain a seat for the opposition since the likely PLP vote share on the PR vote would but it on the boundary of getting a seat.  The PLP PR vote merged into the DPJ-JIP PR vote would ensure that the PLP PR vote is not wasted.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ozawa

THE RIDE NEVER ENDS

(seriously, it's terrible that the PLP is the least worst party)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This may be a big ask, but what is the political gepgraphy of Japan like? As I understand it, the big cities of Tokyo and Osaka are swingy between the left and "populist" right while rural areas are dominated by LDP machine votes? Is that right?

[Asian Nazi]

This may be a big ask, but what is the political gepgraphy of Japan like? As I understand it, the big cities of Tokyo and Osaka are swingy between the left and "populist" right while rural areas are dominated by LDP machine votes? Is that right?

Yeah, the LDP has always been strongest in rural areas.  You probably already know this, but for decades Japanese elections were held using maps that had been drawn in the aftermath World War II, so rural areas were horrendously overrepresented (like five times more representation than similarly populated urban areas) and attempts to rectify this have been slow.  This is not in the least bit surprising, considering that the LDP are the ones who benefit the most from this.  One of the ways that the LDP has been so successful in holding onto power has been their machines in the (still horrendously overrepresented) rural areas of Japan. 

[jaichind]

This may be a big ask, but what is the political gepgraphy of Japan like? As I understand it, the big cities of Tokyo and Osaka are swingy between the left and "populist" right while rural areas are dominated by LDP machine votes? Is that right?

I wrote something a while ago that listed all the different prefectures and what the local balance of power are among different blocs.  While before urban areas are non-LDP, the trend has been the last few election cycles that LDP is gaining in urban areas against DPJ.  DPJ and other center-left opposition have strength in certain non-urban regions like Hokkaido (mainly because of NPD alliance), Iwate (because of PLP), Mie (strong labor unions), Okinawa (anti-LDP sentiment is strong), and Aichi (old DPJ stronghold).  The urbanized areas like Tokyo, Kanagawa, and Chiba area all trending LDP. 

Now that all prefecture elections of 2015 are over with (except Okinawa where there is an election in 2016) it is useful to look at the state of play at politics of the prefecture level.  This is one of the pillars of LDP domination of Japanese politics.  All prefecture elections are based on SNTV  in multi-member constituency, so other than a bias toward LDP seat count in rural Japan where the district sizes are often just 1- or 2- seats, the seat distributions are PR-like.  

So looking at the % of seats in each prefecture for each of the political blocs does give a sense the relative strength of the blocs in each prefecture.  On thing that makes this analysis hard is the large number of independents elected.  But it turned out almost all of these independents are either backed by LDP-KP or the anti-LDP-KP center-left opposition blocs or in the case of LDP, a member of a minority faction of the LDP in the prefecture.  Most of the time these independents also joins the caucus of the party they are aligned with or are from.  If they are front a minority faction they the caucus of the minority faction they are from.  I grouped these independents with the party they are aligned with.

Those that ran and won as LDP or LDP backed or some minority faction of LDP I count under LDP+.  Since in all prefectures LDP and KP are allied I also show the percentage of the prefecture assembly that LDP+KP has as well.  JCP is easy since they always run on the JCP ticket.  All DPJ, PLP, SDP, or some other local center-left opposition party, plus independents allied with any of these parties I count as DPJ+.  I also include various independents without LDP+ background and not aligned with the LDP+ power structure but without clear center-left background either as part of DPJ+ as must of the votes for these members are from the DPJ+ vote base anyway. I count JIP, ORA, and post-YP independents as JIP+.  

           LDP+        KP       LDP+KP      DPJ+     JIP+      JCP    
北海道50.50%   7.92%   58.42%   37.62%   0.00%   3.96% Hokkaido
青森   62.50%   6.25%   68.75%   25.00%   0.00%   6.25% Aomori
岩手   43.75%   2.08%   45.83%   47.92%   0.00%   6.25% Iwate
宮城   54.24%   6.78%   61.02%   20.34%   5.08%  13.56% Miyagi
秋田   62.79%   2.33%   65.12%   32.56%   0.00%   2.33% Akita
山形   68.18%   2.27%   70.45%   25.00%   0.00%   4.55% Yamagata
福島   51.72%   5.17%   56.90%   29.31%   5.17%   8.62% Fukushima
茨城   71.43%   6.35%   77.78%   17.46%   0.00%   4.76% Ibaraki
栃木   58.00%   6.00%   64.00%   24.00%  10.00%   2.00% Tochigi
群馬   66.00%   6.00%   72.00%   24.00%   0.00%   4.00% Gunma
埼玉   56.99%   9.68%   66.67%   27.96%   0.00%   5.38% Saitama
千葉   57.89%   8.42%   66.32%   26.32%   2.11%   5.26% Chiba
神奈川47.62%   9.52%   57.14%   31.43%   5.71%   5.71% Kanagawa
山梨   65.79%   2.63%   68.42%   28.95%   0.00%   2.63% Yamanashi
東京   46.46% 18.11%   64.57%   14.96%   7.09% 13.39% Tokyo
新潟   66.04%   3.77%   69.81%   28.30%   0.00%   1.89% Niigata
富山   75.00%   2.50%   77.50%   20.00%   0.00%   2.50% Toyama
石川   69.77%   4.65%   74.42%   23.26%   0.00%   2.33% Ishikawa
福井   72.97%   2.70%   75.68%   21.62%   0.00%   2.70% Fukui
長野   37.93% 17.24%   55.17%   29.31%   1.72%  13.79% Nagano
岐阜   69.57%   4.35%   73.91%   21.74%   2.17%   2.17% Gifu
静岡   59.42%   7.25%   66.67%   31.88%   0.00%   1.45% Shizuoka
愛知   56.86%   5.88%   62.75%   32.35%   2.94%   1.96% Aichi
三重   41.18%   3.92%   45.10%   49.02%   1.96%   3.92% Mie
滋賀   47.73%   4.55%   52.27%   40.91%   0.00%   6.82% Shiga
京都   46.67%   8.33%   55.00%   18.33%   3.33%  23.33% Kyoto
大阪   29.55% 17.05%   46.59%    1.14%   48.86%   3.41% Osaka
兵庫   52.33% 15.12%   67.44%   16.28%  10.47%   5.81% Hyōgo
奈良   50.00%   6.82%   56.82%   20.45% 11.36%  11.36% Nara
和歌山71.43%   7.14%   78.57%   11.90%   2.38%   7.14% Wakayama
鳥取   60.00%   8.57%   68.57%   25.71%   0.00%   5.71% Tottori
島根   64.86%   5.41%   70.27%   24.32%   0.00%   5.41% Shimane
岡山   65.45%   9.09%   74.55%   20.00%   0.00%   5.45% Okayama
広島   65.63%   9.38%   75.00%   23.44%   0.00%   1.56% Hiroshima
山口   68.09% 10.64%   78.72%   17.02%   0.00%   4.26% Yamaguchi
徳島   74.36%   5.13%   79.49%   12.82%   0.00%   7.69% Tokushima
香川   70.73%   4.88%   75.61%   19.51%   0.00%   4.88% Kagawa
愛媛   61.70%   6.38%   68.09%   17.02% 12.77%   2.13% Ehime
高知   54.05%   8.11%   62.16%   27.03%   0.00% 10.81% Kōchi
福岡   59.30% 12.79%   72.09%   25.58%   0.00%   2.33% Fukuoka
佐賀   71.05%   5.26%   76.32%   18.42%   0.00%   5.26% Saga
長崎   60.87%   6.52%   67.39%   28.26%   2.17%   2.17% Nagasaki
熊本   64.58%   6.25%   70.83%   27.08%   0.00%   2.08% Kumamoto
大分   55.81%   6.98%   62.79%   32.56%   2.33%   2.33% Ōita
宮崎   64.10%   7.69%   71.79%   23.08%   0.00%   5.13% Miyazaki
鹿児島72.55%   5.88%   78.43%   17.65%   1.96%   1.96% Kagoshima
沖縄   31.25% 10.42%   41.67%   43.75%   6.25%   8.33% Okinawa
Tot    57.30%   8.12%   65.41%   25.06%   3.95%   5.62%

The domination of the LDP is clear.  Due to threshold effects especially in rural districts the LDP vote share are usually around 5% less than their seat percentage.    The result is clear to seat.  LDP-KP has a majority in nearly every prefecture, sometimes by massive margins which is especially impressive given the psudo PR nature of seat allocation.   The only prefectures where LDP-KP does not have a majority are 岩手 (Iwate), 三重 (Mie), 沖縄 (Okinawa), and 大阪(Osaka).  In the first 3 DPJ+ has the upper hand but does not have a simple majority either. Only with JCP backing does DPJ+ have a majority in these 3 prefectures.  In Osaka ORA has a plurality over LDP-KP but does not have a majority either with DPJ and JCP who are both anti-ORA having the balance of power.

All things equal LDP-KP vote share in prefecture elections tends to be around 5%-8% higher than their vote share in national elections in each prefecture in question.

[Asian Nazi]

The post you made a few down from that one where you did a writeup for each prefecture was pretty great too.

[jaichind]

A key aide of PM Abe pretty much said that there is a 90% chance of a lower House election this year.  He pointed out that as long as the LDP wins the April Hokkaido 5th District by-election then LDP will most likely Abe will take the plunge.  Implicit in all this is that if Abe leads the LDP to 2 landslides victories in 2016 plus his landslide victory in 2012 2013 and 2014, he should deserve a change in LDP rules for him to run for a third term as LDP president and continue being PM well after 2018.

[jaichind]

I know I am obsessed with this topic because it find it so funny.  But here is a picture of Abe meeting the new Miss Japan which is the daughter of his political enemy and JIP leader Matsuno.  



When Abe asked her what her future plans are, Matsuno said that she wanted to go into politics just like her father.  Abe then said "you must run for LDP."