Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Holmes]

I think, if anything, this election makes Horwath's hold on many non-Toronto ridings more impressive in last year's election.

[Boston Bread]

It's easier to be more efficient as a 3rd party in a local/provincial campaign. More opportunities to concentrate tactics on a few select ridings to focus the vote. Whereas national election results come in waves that tend to ignore local considerations.

[Holmes]

True, but Ontario still is a very large province with many ridings, and a large geographic landscape. It's not like campaigning in Nova Scotia or Prince Edward Island.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I know provincial Liberals are very different organisations to the national ones (especially in BC and Quebec) but I find it amazing that Liberal parties will (after Newfoundland next month) run every single province except the prairies AND the federal parliament all at once. My big prediction is that the Liberals will also surge in Manitoba, and clean up in Winnipeg, and leaving the NDP government reduced to third, meaning Notley will be the only NDP figure of any relevance.

My questions about a Liberal government:

How long before a Senate scandal?
What sort of electoral reform will we get?
How long will promises of transparency, increased oversight, free votes , omnibus bills etc. last?
How will he irritate Francophone Canada and/or the West?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What sort of electoral reform will we get?

After today's results, I'm willing to bet electoral reform is DOA. Liberals are clearly better at appealing to tactical voting, so they have an advantage under FPP.

[Boston Bread]

I expect IRV. Electoral reform was a big agenda for progressives on the campaign so I don't think there'll be no plan, instead there will be a plan to make it even easier for them to win.

[Crumpets]

Does anybody have a breakdown of which ridings are not declared yet and who leads in them?

[Boston Bread]

Observations:

For all the warning of the NDP collapse in MB, it looks like they'll still remain at 2 seats. The NDP also status quo in BC and AB, and gaining seats 3 in SK. So the West seems to be the good news for the NDP this election (net gain of 3!), while everything to the east is horrible news.

What is going on in Markham-Unionville? Why is that seat defying the red tide?

Greens not performing well. Strategic voting hurt them just as it hurt the NDP.

[Boston Bread]

Does anybody have a breakdown of which ridings are not declared yet and who leads in them?

Only one I can see is Kootenay-Columbia. NDP-CPC deadlock. CBC is malfunctioning on me right now so I can't see the others.

[politicallefty]

It looks like the Liberals will have a rather impressive four seats from Alberta (including Calgary for the first time since 1968): Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods, Calgary Skyview, and Calgary Centre.

I think one of the most stunning displays of the Liberal wave and the NDP collapse was Toronto, where the sweep was complete in turning even Toronto-Danforth red.

[Volrath50]

What is going on in Markham-Unionville? Why is that seat defying the red tide?

I believe that riding is 60% Chinese. Perhaps the Tory campaign appealed to the Chinese community in a way it didn't elsewhere?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Anyone have any blank riding maps?

[Volrath50]

Interestingly, the Conservatives are only down about 300k votes from last time. I think a strong argument might be made that it wasn't so much that they lost support, but that, for once, certain demographics actually showed up to vote in larger numbers. It looks like the highest turnout since 1997 or 1993.

[2952-0-0]

What is going on in Markham-Unionville? Why is that seat defying the red tide?

I believe that riding is 60% Chinese. Perhaps the Tory campaign appealed to the Chinese community in a way it didn't elsewhere?

Likely so. Richmond Centre also sticks out as a blue island in a red sea for the same reason.

[Holmes]

I think one of the most stunning displays of the Liberal wave and the NDP collapse was Toronto, where the sweep was complete in turning even Toronto-Danforth red.

Not so surprising if you take the 2014 provincial election in consideration.

[Boston Bread]

Cons fall below 100!!!! Hurrah for BC!

Now that the Liberals are below Harper's 39.6% of the vote in 2011 I think it's safe to say the Tories are not more vote efficient than any other party.

Edit: If results hold this mean 2015 will still be the NDP's second best seat count. Mainly thanks to a net gain of 5 from SK,BC.

[H. Ross Peron]

Glad to see that there's a solid non-Tory majority government. The only thing I'm confused by are the Quebec results considering the Tories managed to increase the number of seats in that province and that BQ gained seats even as their party leader was defeated.

[ag]

If NDP gets to 44 seats, as they seem to be on track for, this will still be the second-largest seat tally they get in history (the next largest would be 43 in 1988, though from a somewhat smaller parliament). Not such a disaster.

[Boston Bread]

Apparently Kootenay-Columbia was prematurely called for CPC... now with all the votes counted the NDP wins. A repeat of Peace River in #abvote.

[Boston Bread]

If NDP gets to 44 seats, as they seem to be on track for, this will still be the second-largest seat tally they get in history (the next largest would be 43 in 1988, though from a somewhat smaller parliament). Not such a disaster.

It's not so much a catastrophe as it is a lost opportunity. Layton already sowed the seeds that made an NDP government possible, all it would take for an NDP government now is one more great campaign. Mulcair could have been the one but failed. With how huge Canadian swings can be, every campaign from here on will be an opportunity for the NDP to win government, even if they start out in 3rd as Trudeau did.

[ag]

If NDP gets to 44 seats, as they seem to be on track for, this will still be the second-largest seat tally they get in history (the next largest would be 43 in 1988, though from a somewhat smaller parliament). Not such a disaster.

It's not so much a catastrophe as it is a lost opportunity. Layton already sowed the seeds that made an NDP government possible, all it would take for an NDP government now is one more great campaign. Mulcair could have been the one but failed. With how huge Canadian swings can be, every campaign from here on will be an opportunity for the NDP to win government, even if they start out in 3rd as Trudeau did.

Sure. But the Liberals are still the natural governing party: they are still in the middle.

[Holmes]

If NDP gets to 44 seats, as they seem to be on track for, this will still be the second-largest seat tally they get in history (the next largest would be 43 in 1988, though from a somewhat smaller parliament). Not such a disaster.

It's not so much a catastrophe as it is a lost opportunity. Layton already sowed the seeds that made an NDP government possible, all it would take for an NDP government now is one more great campaign. Mulcair could have been the one but failed. With how huge Canadian swings can be, every campaign from here on will be an opportunity for the NDP to win government, even if they start out in 3rd as Trudeau did.

This is a good point, but at the point Canada is at now, that probably wouldn't happen any time soon, unless the Liberals screw up badly within the next 4 years (the closer to election day, the better). But that's a crappy thing to hope for.

[Crumpets]

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon is apparently still undeclared, although the Liberal candidate is ahead of the Tory about 1.7% and 579 votes with 154/189 polls reporting, so I don't expect a surprise change.

[Boston Bread]

184-99-44-10-1 will likely be the final results.
The Tories tie their 2004 seat performance.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Holy Christ, Judy Foote in Bonavista won 82% of the vote!!