Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually wait, is that a star of David necklace?  

**Looks up candidate name**

He's got a Greek (?) name but is Russian... now I am really confused.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kootenay-Columbia has a much more conservative history than I thought. Over 60% voted for Reform and Alliance!

Yeah but a huge part of the NDP base vote in BC voted Reform/CA in the 1993, 1997 and 2000 elections when the whole regional issue trumped class politics (have a look at Vancouver Island as well). Normal service has since resumed.

[ag]

Actually wait, is that a star of David necklace?  

**Looks up candidate name**

He's got a Greek (?) name but is Russian... now I am really confused.

Konstantin is a common Russian name as well. Do not know about the last name, but googling "тубис" produces a bunch of Russians with that name. What is the problem?

[lilTommy]

There are NDP strongholds in downtown Toronto, but when one party is beating the other by about 30% in the province, well...

The NDP did not lose by much in their strong ridings:
Parkdale-High Park - 42%LPC -40%NDP
Danvenport - 44%LPC - 41%NDP
Toronto-Danforth - 42%LPC - 40%NDP

Interestingly enough, it was the three DT ridings that went 50%+ for the LPC
University-Rosedale - 50%LPC - 29%NDP
Spadina-Fort York - 55%LPC - 27%NDP
Toronto Centre - 58%LPC - 27%NDP

Very much like what happened in 2014 Provincially (except PHP)

[136or142]

Kootenay-Columbia has a much more conservative history than I thought. Over 60% voted for Reform and Alliance!

Yeah but a huge part of the NDP base vote in BC voted Reform/CA in the 1993, 1997 and 2000 elections when the whole regional issue trumped class politics (have a look at Vancouver Island as well). Normal service has since resumed.

In the parts of B.C that are either farming or resource dependent, many of the voters there would describe themselves politically as 'populist.'  The Reform Party under Preston Manning was considered to be very much so a populist party in support of things like referendums, initiatives and recall (which the Progressives initially championed about 80 years prior both in Canada and the United States), so it's not surprising that New Democrats who were unhappy with either the federal NDP or provincial NDP government in 1993/1997 in those areas would have turned  to the Reform Party.  

As we just saw in this election, this was much less so for populist voters this time around, but prior to the 2015 election, for many voters in these areas the choice is between the NDP and the Conservatives, and not the NDP and the Liberals.

For instance, after the 1996 election where the New Democrats ran a populist campaign, after the provincial Reform Party voted to merge into the B.C Liberal Party, Premier Glen Clark tried to persuade Peace River region Reform Party MLA Richard Neufeld to join the NDP arguing that his populism was more in line with Neufeld's political views.

[ag]

In 133 ridings the winner got 50% of the vote or more. The highest scoring loser is NDP´s Jack Harris from St. John´s East, who got 45.3% of the vote. 204 of the winners got this percentage or higher. Only 5 candidates won with under 30% of the vote, and only 19 more with 1/3 or less of the vote. So, despite everything, most winners got a pretty large vote share.

[King of Kensington]

There are NDP strongholds in downtown Toronto, but when one party is beating the other by about 30% in the province, well...

Downtown Toronto wasn't so great for the NDP.  The NDP strength is more in the west and east ends of inner Toronto.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[RogueBeaver]

Wells mega-read on Trudeau's victory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Boston Bread]

I set up a new model based on the 2015 results and inputted 308's polling average from Aug 24 - when the NDP was at its height, with 37.4% to the CPC's 28.1% and the LPC's 25.9% (although this included a heavily dubious Forum poll). The results were 165 NDP, 108 Conservative, 63 Liberal.

I also tried inputting the 2011 numbers to see how the vote efficiency changed. I got 190 CPC, 128 NDP, 15 LPC. It seems the Liberal vote was more spread out this time. Good when you're ahead of course, not so good if you're third.

[Holmes]

I set up a new model based on the 2015 results and inputted 308's polling average from Aug 24 - when the NDP was at its height, with 37.4% to the CPC's 28.1% and the LPC's 25.9% (although this included a heavily dubious Forum poll). The results were 165 NDP, 108 Conservative, 63 Liberal.

I also tried inputting the 2011 numbers to see how the vote efficiency changed. I got 190 CPC, 128 NDP, 15 LPC. It seems the Liberal vote was more spread out this time. Good when you're ahead of course, not so good if you're third.

So the Liberals crash when their support is low and the Conservative vote is slightly more efficient. Just confirming what we more or less knew. The NDP vote also seems efficient too, but not as much as the Conservatives', it seems.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I set up a new model based on the 2015 results and inputted 308's polling average from Aug 24 - when the NDP was at its height, with 37.4% to the CPC's 28.1% and the LPC's 25.9% (although this included a heavily dubious Forum poll). The results were 165 NDP, 108 Conservative, 63 Liberal.

I also tried inputting the 2011 numbers to see how the vote efficiency changed. I got 190 CPC, 128 NDP, 15 LPC. It seems the Liberal vote was more spread out this time. Good when you're ahead of course, not so good if you're third.

Tfw when your election model is ruined by mysterious upcoming electoral reform.

[DistingFlyer]

Here is a graph showing parties' popular support from 1935 to last week:



And their seat counts over that same period:



Additionally, since Quebec often behaves quite differently from the rest of the country (being a Liberal bastion until 1984, then swinging wildly to different parties every decade or so afterwards), here are the popular vote figures for the rest of Canada:



(I'm sure someone will call me out over putting the Socreds & Reformers on the same line, but it saved space and the two parties do share a Western populist tradition, not to mention the Manning family).


The frequently large and uneven regional swings here in Canada often make it seem (to outsiders as well as ourselves) as though we're going through electoral realignments every decade or so; however, looking at the last thirty years one can see - in spite of some of the largest swings/rises/collapses/etc. happening during that time - a pattern of Tory & Liberal governments switching out every ten years or so.
This pattern - dare I even call it stability in such a politically volatile country? - is always overshadowed by the spectacular collapse of the defeated party, which leads most comment to be about 'the beginning of a new dynasty.' To wit: in 1984, the Liberals nearly fell to third place (and entered the 1988 campaign in third place). The thumping Tory leads in Quebec led to comment about them perhaps dominating that province in the way the Liberals had for the previous sixty years, with them consequently becoming the 'natural governing party' for a long time to come.
Then, in 1993 the Liberals returned as the Tories split in two. In spite of efforts to reunite them (like the United Alternative push that created the Alliance in 1999/2000), they remained separate - and as long as there were two conservative parties, the Liberals would be in power forever.
Finally they reunited and the Liberals, hurt by scandals and ineffective campaigns (and leaders), slowly declined until they plunged to third in 2011. Given what tends to happen to center-ground parties once they drop to third place, all the talk became about their continued decline.
Last week's election, in contrast to the other changes of power, does not yet show any indication of a major shakeup like they did - the Liberals are in with a good majority (similar to the notional Tory victory of last time, and with a vote share almost identical), while the Conservatives have a respectable 32% (higher than 2004, and the highest second-place vote since 1988). However, cracks in the Tories' western base, and a strong Liberal resurgence in Quebec, show that the old political pattern of pre-1984 may yet come back. A second consecutive poor showing by the Bloc also indicates that majority governments may soon become the norm again rather than the exception - with 40-50 seats going to a third party, forming a majority was very difficult, except during the 1990s with the split conservative vote.

Contrast these regular changes of power with the long Liberal dominance of 1921-1984, which was owed entirely to Quebec. Without the overwhelming support of that province, Mackenzie King would likely not have been PM during the 1920s, Pearson would not have won an election, and Trudeau would have only served four years. The rare changes of government happened only under extraordinary circumstances: 1930, when the Depression started (but unfortunately for R. B. Bennett, still had a ways to go); 1957, when the country was just plain sick of the Liberals in spite of the good economy, and the Tories got a magnificent campaigner in John Diefenbaker; and 1979, when the economy was poor, the Liberals had been in for a long time, and Trudeau was personally unpopular. Only on these occasions did the Conservatives accumulate a lead in the rest of Canada that was large enough to offset the Liberals' dominance of Quebec.

Since 1984, while Quebec has still not followed the political patterns of the rest of the country, it has at least shown itself to be open to different parties - and indeed, four different parties have won there over these last three decades. It no longer belongs to one party, so the single-party dominance that prevailed for most of the 20th century is unlikely to happen, and for two elections now the vast majority of its seats (and votes) have gone to national rather than regional parties, so majority governments are much more likely to be formed.

As for my own personal feelings about the election of last week, I felt that the Tories had lost their way and needed to go; however, I was not convinced that either the NDP or the Liberals would be an improvement. I was (and still am) not at all convinced that Justin Trudeau had the necessary chops to be a good PM - I regard him as this country's version of the second President Bush (an underqualified, somewhat manufactured candidate who traded largely on fond memories of his father more than on anything of any substance).
I was especially concerned what might happen in the event of a Liberal minority government, as I am dead-set against PR and was sure that they would move to implement it. Now that they have shown that they can win on their own, against a united Tory party, the Liberals (and perhaps a good chunk of left-wing voters too) may cool in their enthusiasm for it. I do support the idea of instant-runoff voting (in fact, if we adopted the entire electoral process of Australia I would be more than fine with it), which Mr. Trudeau has spoken in favor of and which would benefit his party the most. (It would also benefit the NDP, Greens and Bloc the least, which - at least to me - is a further plus). For that reason (as well as guaranteed stability for at least four years), a Liberal majority was probably the best possible outcome. If the Tories had beaten the odds and won again, antipathy toward them would grow so heavily that they would probably have faced near-wipeout next time. Sometimes one can win one time too many (such as John Major in 1992, and to a lesser extent Paul Keating in 1993).
I do remain concerned about what the Liberals will do regarding defence - their record on it is not that great, and with the Tories' constant boasting about higher defence spending (with it actually not going up that much), the Liberals could perhaps justify further cuts to the public, who may think the budget is bigger than it really is. The Liberals made comforting noises while campaigning here in the HRM seats, but I'm still not entirely convinced.

Sorry for the ramble, but I've had a few days to stew about all this and needed to put it down somewhere!

[adma]

Given the "Siri" metaphor I've offered re election projection/strategic-voting sites, here's my motorist's spin on psephologically-minded campaign approaches...

With the NDP, it's all about advancing the cause of better navigational skills.

The Liberals: better navigational technology.

The Conservatives: better roads.

The Greens: better bikeways.

Voting reform advocates: better cars.

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the breakdown of seats per party by province?

[136or142]

What's the breakdown of seats per party by province?

Newfoundland and Labrador, Liberal: 7
Prince Edward Island, Liberal: 4
Nova Scotia, Liberal: 11
New Brunswick, Liberal: 10
Quebec, Liberal: 40, NDP: 16, Conservative: 12, Bloc Quebecois: 10
Ontario, Liberal: 80, Conservative: 33, NDP: 8
Manitoba: Liberal: 7, Conservative: 5, NDP: 2
Saskatchewan, Conservative: 10, NDP: 3, Liberal: 1
Alberta, Conservative: 29, Liberal: 4, NDP: 1
British Columbia: Liberal: 17, NDP: 14, Conservative: 10, Green: 1

[Antonio the Sixth]

Snip

That's amazing!

Where did you get the election data by Province? On Elections Canada I only found results from 1997 on.

[Hash]

Snip

That's amazing!

Where did you get the election data by Province? On Elections Canada I only found results from 1997 on.

Wikipedia's individual pages for each election includes the results by province. Not sure what the 'source' is, it's probably just compiling the individual results from each of the province's ridings.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Snip

That's amazing!

Where did you get the election data by Province? On Elections Canada I only found results from 1997 on.

Wikipedia's individual pages for each election includes the results by province. Not sure what the 'source' is, it's probably just compiling the individual results from each of the province's ridings.

Yeah, but those provincial results only list percentages (and with only one decimal, ugh...) which makes it impossible to compile them into regions, or "everything-except-Québec" as DistingFlyer did. So I'm assuming he's relying on something else.

[DC Al Fine]

Snip

That's amazing!

Where did you get the election data by Province? On Elections Canada I only found results from 1997 on.

Wikipedia's individual pages for each election includes the results by province. Not sure what the 'source' is, it's probably just compiling the individual results from each of the province's ridings.

Yeah, but those provincial results only list percentages (and with only one decimal, ugh...) which makes it impossible to compile them into regions, or "everything-except-Québec" as DistingFlyer did. So I'm assuming he's relying on something else.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties.php

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Boston Bread]

I did a simulation of the 2015 election IRV. I used Nanos's data on second preferences to do it.

The results:
Liberal 211 (+27)
Conservative 70 (-29)
NDP 54 (+10)
BQ 2 (-8)
Green 1 (nc)

Seats changed:

Quebec
Beauport-Limoilou: CPC->NDP
Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Vercheres: BQ->LPC
Beauport–Côte-de-Beaupré–Île d'Orléans–Charlevoix: CPC->LPC
Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine: LPC->NDP
Joliette: BQ->LPC
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: LPC->NDP
La Point-de-l'Ile: BQ->LPC
Lac-Saint-Jean: CPC->NDP
Megantic-L'Erable: CPC->LPC
Mirabel: BQ->NDP
Montcalm: BQ->LPC
Montmagny–L'Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup: CPC->LPC
Quebec: LPC->NDP
Repentigny: BQ->LPC
Richmond-Arthabaska: CPC->NDP
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles: LPC->NDP
Rivière-du-Nord: BQ->NDP
Saint-Jean: LPC->NDP
Terrebonne: BQ->LPC

Ontario
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte: CPC->LPC
Brantford-Brant: CPC->LPC
Chatham-Kent-Leamington: CPC->LPC
Flamborough-Glanbrook: CPC->LPC
Hamilton Mountain: NDP->LPC
Huron-Bruce: CPC->LPC
Kitchener-Conestoga: CPC->LPC
Milton: CPC->LPC
Niagara Falls: CPC->LPC
Oshawa: CPC->NDP
Parry Sound-Muskoka: CPC->LPC
Perth-Wellington: CPC->LPC
Carleton: CPC->LPC
Sarnia-Lambton: CPC->NDP
Simcoe North: CPC->LPC

Saskatchewan
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River: NDP->LPC

Alberta
Calgary Confederation: CPC->LPC
Edmonton Griesbach: CPC->NDP

BC
Burnaby South: NDP->LPC
Cariboo-Prince George: CPC->LPC
Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola: CPC->LPC
Chilliwack-Hope: CPC->LPC
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo: CPC->NDP
North Okanagan-Shuwap: CPC->LPC
Port Moody-Coquitlam: NDP->LPC
Richmond Centre: CPC->LPC
South Surrey-White Rock: CPC->LPC

Liberal hegemony strengthens even further being the big winner in Ontario and BC. The NDP is the winner in QC thanks to the BQ vote. Conservatives are in danger of being relegated to third if their 12 point margin over the NDP shrinks even slightly.