Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Tender Branson]

The Netherlands, 2017.

Disgusting.

Where is this ? Some election precinct in a bigger city ?

[SunSt0rm]

The Netherlands, 2017.

Disgusting.

Where is this ? Some election precinct in a bigger city ?

Absolutely. Amsterdam east, which is multiculti neighbor

[Zinneke]

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: GroenLinks
Largest in Utrecht (city): GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD
(In good belgian fashion I'll include the peripherals as a way to distance myself from the Randstad bubble )
Largest in Eindhoven: D66
Largest in Groningen : D66/SP
Largest in Nijmegen : SP
Largest in Maastricht : PVV, but win for the aggregated SP/GL.
Largest in Parkstad Limburg : PVV

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: PVV
Largest in Zeeland:CDA
Largest in Overijssel:CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: CDA
Largest in Noord-Brabant:CDA
Largest in Utrecht (province): VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Over
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-GL-D66
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Assuming this is a white flight suburb of ROtterdam, over.
Best VVD municipality? no idea
Best CDA municipality? probably somewhere in the Bible Belt that historically votes for them in GEs over CU SGP
Best PVV municipality? Almere
Best GL municipality? Utrecht I guess
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Over
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Over
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Over
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Over
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Larger
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? somewhere in North Amsterdam or Flevoland  
Best DENK municipality? Amsterdam
Best VNL municipality? Scheveningen/Den Haag
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? FvD, Denk and PP due to Ancilla.

The Netherlands, 2017.

Disgusting.

Where is this ? Some election precinct in a bigger city ?

What's disgusting? The mosque or the Turkish flag?

Religious buildings are used for electoral booths all the time.

[DavidB.]

Disgusting.

Where is this ? Some election precinct in a bigger city ?

Diyanet mosque ("intercultural center") in multicultural Amsterdam East. It also included Turkish nationalist propaganda, and there was Turkish radio in the background. The radio has now been switched off and the propaganda has gone, but I think the flag may still be there.

I don't mind voting in mosques or churches but I do mind the Turkish flag being there.

[Tender Branson]

What's disgusting?

The whole setup there is disgusting.

The room, the veiled scary-looking being, the Turkish flag ...

[DavidB.]

And apparently people in Nijmegen vote under a portrait of the late leader of the Grey Wolves.

[Zinneke]

What's disgusting?

The whole setup there is disgusting.

The room, the veiled scary-looking being, the Turkish flag ...

Who is veiled?

[DavidB.]

Who is veiled?

Haha, at first glance it looked like a veil to me too, but of course it isn't one.

[Tender Branson]

To me, it seems postal voting sometimes really is the better option ...

I'd hate the idea of voting in person in such precincts like the the two shown above ...

[DavidB.]

Ipsos: national turnout 33% at 2:30 PM, 27% in 2012. If this pattern holds, it would mean that turnout will be over 80%. Turnout is over 40% in Utrecht.

[Tender Branson]

I have looked at the latest Rotterdam figures again.

It slowed down a bit over the past hours, but there's still about 22.000 votes being added each hour. The slow-down was expected of course.

I now expect a turnout there between 330.000-340.000 votes.

73.5-75.0% turnout.

Up from 62.5% in 2012.

[Zinneke]

To me, it seems postal voting sometimes really is the better option ...

I'd hate the idea of voting in person in such precincts like the the two shown above ...

Not all religious extremists and theocrats are harmful physically. They're harmful when they try to impose their values on society.

Unless your issue is with brown people, which seems likely given your use of language.

[Tender Branson]

To me, it seems postal voting sometimes really is the better option ...

I'd hate the idea of voting in person in such precincts like the the two shown above ...

Not all religious extremists and theocrats are harmful physically. They're harmful when they try to impose their values on society.

Unless your issue is with brown people, which seems likely given your use of language.

Which is what they are doing, with the Turkish flag and the Turkish radio propaganda in the voting precinct. The Amsterdam city government had to send someone so they remove that propaganda. The same with the Grey Wolves precint.

And I don't have a problem with brown people, just the precinct setting annoys me.

[Classic Conservative]

Who does the higher turnout help?

[Tender Branson]

Den Haag (2pm turnout):

34.5% (was 27.2% in 2012)

[DC Al Fine]

Don't they vet polling places before hand? I ask because my church is always asked to put away the posters and literature on display in the lobby when it serves as a polling place, and that's pretty benign stuff. I can't imagine a foreign nation's flag being allowed to stay up.

[jaichind]

Are partial exit polls intra-day allowed under Netherlands law or will exit polls only be published at the end of voting at 9PM?

[DL]

Which party is thought to benefit most from a very high turnout?

[DavidB.]

Are partial exit polls intra-day allowed under Netherlands law or will exit polls only be published at the end of voting at 9PM?

Allowed, but usually doesnt happen

Which party is thought to benefit most from a very high turnout?

Take it with a grain of salt, but higher turnout in the cities is supposed to benefit PVV, Denk, GL; overall it could benefit 50Plus and SP too. Will hurt CDA, CU and SGP. SGP may lose 1 seat now

[Dutch Conservative]

Some turnout numbers from the south:

- Sittard-Geleen 15h: 44% (2012:41,5)
- Weert 12h: 27% (2012: 21%)
- Eindhoven 12.30h: 27% (2012: 25%)

[SunSt0rm]

Which party is thought to benefit most from a very high turnout?

Difficult to say. Most logic are PVV, GL and Denk. But could also be VVD as people wants to block Wilders to become 1st

[Dutch Conservative]

Which party is thought to benefit most from a very high turnout?

Difficult to say. Most logic are PVV, GL and Denk. But could also be VVD as people wants to block Wilders to become 1st

Yes, this could well be. I'm still puzzeled what drives the voters to the polls. There wasn't a central issue in the campaign. Apparently people are very motivated. But why? In my opinion it could mean three things: people massively want to block the PVV from becoming the largest party. Second option: higher turnout with younger voters. Or third: polls haven't picked up a large group of (angry?) voters.

[DavidB.]

Combination of anti-Rutte, anti-Wilders, anti-Trump and anti-Dutch sentiments seems likely to me, though I'm still pleasantly surprised

[ApatheticAustrian]

the after-effect of 2016 i guess..."we" (democrats worldwide) don't want to become another UK/USA and vice versa.

erdogan could help too.

[DavidB.]

Wouldnt be surprised if electoral patterns/swings throughout the country will be much less uniform than in 2012, which would affect quality of exit polls