Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DC Al Fine]

How do you vote exactly DavidB?

[DC Al Fine]

LOL at the tax cut for elders. How would that even work?

Different brackets depending on your age group, a tax credit for those over retirement age.... It's actually pretty easy to implement even if its terrible policy.

[DC Al Fine]

What's "fake parliament" mean?

[DC Al Fine]

Re: DavidB's hypothesized minority cabinet.

Wouldn't this sort of thing play right into PVV's hand? At some point a cordon sanitaire just looks like ignoring the legitimate will of the people. Would it not be more prudent to let PVV form a government and let the difficulties of power take them out?

[DC Al Fine]

I just find it crazy how not only is there an openly theocratic party with seats, there's an openly theocratic party from my branch of Christianity... With actual representation in parliament.

[DC Al Fine]

Supposing that D66 successfully implemented FPTP, who would win seats? Obviously the party system would be different, but any guesses?

[DC Al Fine]

I assume SGP and CU are going ballistic over this?

What is the reaction of the other parties?

[DC Al Fine]

SGP and CU are not really the parties to go "ballistic" over anything, but yes, they were shocked, and both CU and SGP wrote parliamentary questions to Health Minister Edith Schippers (VVD) about it. Apart from that, political parties have mainly been silent about it, apart from D66 MP Pia Dijkstra, who wrote an article that defended the Levenseindekliniek. I get the impression that this is sort of an awkward topic for the secular political parties, because euthanasia is seen as part of the package of Dutch "progressive acquirements" (in the category of abortion, gay rights, prostitution) that should not really be debated. Which is a shame, I think, because what happened in the documentary (and what happens in the Levenseindekliniek) is a legitimate subject for debate even if one is in favor of legal euthanasia.

Ah I see. I figured there would be silence from VVD, but I'm a bit surprised that CDA haven't gotten upset. I assume they must

It's bittersweet to hear the predictions of my old (Dutch) pastor vindicated :/ More to the point, I think this sort of thing highlights a cognitive dissonance in certain parts of the left where a completely deregulated labour or healthcare market is rightly looked on with suspicion but an extremely deregulated sex or life and death market is given a free pass.

As society increasingly liberalizes, how to deal with the side effects of legal prostitution, drugs etc will be an interesting new set of issues.

[DC Al Fine]

Given that SP and PVV are both major players for the foreseeable future, wouldn't an electoral threshold make it harder to form governments?

Imagine a scenario where there is a 5% threshold. The Christians form a joint list and manage to get into parliament while this new DENK group manages to cause Labour to just miss the bar. How would you make a government out of that?

[DC Al Fine]

Having sex with a prostitute whom one knows is a victim of human trafficking will become illegal. A majority of MPs voted for a motion by CU, SP and PvdA to this end.

Your wording intrigues me. Who voted against it?

[DC Al Fine]

Excellent idea. Some interesting polls then. Support for the following policies on the basis of current party vote, age, and education.



From most to least popular:
Ending free-market competition in the healthcare system
Investing 2 billion in defense and police
Ending death duties for children of the deceased
Pension age should be 65 again [from 67 now, DavidB.]
Prioritizing the improvement of purchasing power for the elderly
Not admitting any more asylum seekers
Implementing a binding referendum
Implementing 3-month paternity leave
All contracts should become permanent, but it should become easier to fire people [proposed D66 policy, DavidB.]
Leave the EU
Closing down all asylum seeker centers

FTFY

[DC Al Fine]

I see that Hoog, Midden and Laag mean high, medium, and low. What does that translate to in US/UK terms?

[DC Al Fine]

Not a clue, I'm afraid. I just noticed the imgur link wasn't working and tired the other way

[DC Al Fine]

So which parties voted for/against the bill?

[DC Al Fine]

The 2017 budget will be released next week. Like always the most important provisions have already been leaked. After years of austerity the government suddenly found 1.5 billion to invest in healthcare, defense, education and police and 1 billion to make sure nobody will be off worse next year. It's the last budget before the election, so you could have expected it. The deficit will be 0.7% of GDP.

Economic growth is projected to be 1.7%. It's a shame the coalition and opposition didn't manage to come to an agreement on tax reform in 2015, I'm sure that could have boosted economic growth and job creation. The Dutch tax code is really bad imo. Because there are a lot of deductions (mainly the mortgage interest deduction, which costs something like 13 billion/2% of GDP) income tax rates are fairly high (36.55%, 40.4% and 52%). Stamp duty (6%) and the wealth tax (currently 1.2% for anything above 20k but it will become more progressive in 2017) also are terrible. A lot of products are taxed on the low VAT rate (6%) instead of on the normal rate of 21%. And the corporate tax rate isn't really that competitive anymore (25%). But the VVD isn't going to limit the mortgage interest deduction in a meaningful way while the other parties probably don't really want to raise the lower VAT rate (especially not on groceries, imagine the PVV/SP outrage).

Your wealth tax is on anything over $20,000 euros? That's ridiculous; worse than any proposal I've seen by our lefty avatars (sans the commies of course). Was it just never adjusted for inflation or did someone actually implement it at roughly $20k in today's money?

I may have to start supporting libertarian parties in the Netherlands.

[DC Al Fine]

And this is the reason why VVD-CDA-D66 are in deep sh**t if they don't have a majority with CU, SGP and 50Plus. In that case, a Belgian scenario cannot be ruled out, although I must say the flexibility of Dutch politicians after elections never ceases to amaze me. But yes, getting GL or PvdA on board to sustain such a right-wing government (at least on the economy) from the outside is really not going to happen. Basically, the larger the PVV becomes, the harder government formation will be. But regarding Rutte, I don't think there is an alternative to a coalition based on VVD-CDA-D66. Even in the event of a snap election in October 2017, triggered by a government formation crisis, I am not convinced Rutte would have to step down.

A few questions:

1) I thought SGP were a testimonial party? Or does that only apply to participating in cabinets?

2) The impression I get from most of European politics is that the cordon sanitaire outweighs economic concerns in forming government. What makes Dutch politics different?

3) Forgive me if you've explained this before, but why are you, a not particularly socially conservative Jew, voting for SGP?

[DC Al Fine]

In turn, the government would have accepted a D66 initiative (LOL) to exclude international agreements from citizens' initiatives leading to referendums.

Bahaha. Yeah I did a double take there.

Lol, and then they wonder why there is so much distrust in government. Beautiful how D'66 has transformed from a anti-establishment to an establishment party, in 50 years.

They've long since completed the transition to bland social liberal party I guess.

[DC Al Fine]

Any hilarious/wack policies that everybody is making fun of?

The entire circus hasn't started yet -- I doubt most people know there's going to be an election in March. Until now, everything I've seen from the parties has been boring and predictable except for the SGP's "Daily Allahu Akbar calls from the mosque. Sometimes you'd like to have more SGP..." stuff which was widely ridiculed, but that is probably only known among nerds. And then there was of course the boring outrage over the PVV's thingy (as if their voters care).

SGP actively campaigns? I always thought their share of the vote was largely a function of the population at large. Or do they do all the usual campaign stuff to try and take votes from CDA and CU?

[DC Al Fine]

In order of size: VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA-CU is the most discussed I think. Diverse coalition would be an understatement.

[DC Al Fine]

That raises an interesting question. What are the parties with the biggest and smallest differences between the leadership and the rank and file support?

[DC Al Fine]

When I go onto the English wiki for Dutch opinion polls, each poll has 1-4 seats going to "Other". When I go on the Dutch version, it has DENK, Pirates and what appears to be two PPV-alternative parties winning between 0-2 seats each dependingo on the poll. What are these parties' chances of getting into parliament?

[DC Al Fine]

I agree with others here that DENK are probably getting in; VNL and FVD are the only other ones who have a remotely realistic shot of getting in, but that's probably not happening anyway.

I wrote this for another, slightly less serious website on the parties that are on the ballot yet weren't elected in 2012. Don't shoot.

12. Ondernemerspartij: if you're not yet sick and tired of former PVV MP and known alcoholic troublemaker Hero Brinkman ("Drinkman"), who now pretends to stand up for small businesses' interests. Electoral potential: 0
13. VNL: if you agree with Wilders but don't think he has the best words -- a drunk like Jan Roos is obviously more sensitive -- and also want tax cuts. Electoral potential: 35% chance they get in.
14. DENK: if you think Erdogan is actually p cool. Electoral potential: 90% chance they get in.
15. NIEUWE WEGEN: if you're a social democrat fed up with the PvdA who wants less EU and, as opposed to the SP, less immigration, but you don't like Wilders for some reason. Electoral potential: <5% they get in.
16. Forum voor Democratie: if you're highly educated and like your party leader to lie on a piano and pretend his party is the new D66 while it's really a cheap copy of the PVV (but pro-Putin and pro-MRA). Electoral potential: 25% chance they get in.
17. De Burger Beweging: if you don't like the financial system but you also can't write proper Dutch. Electoral potential: 0
18. Vrijzinnige Partij: if you want a universal basic income and you think someone who split off from 50Plus is the man. Electoral potential: 0.
19. GeenPeil: if you think it's a good idea if MPs just vote on the basis of random open internet polls -- what could possibly go wrong? Electoral potential: <5% they get in.
20. Piratenpartij: if you think privacy is cool, or if you just think parliament would look better with a fetish model in it. Electoral potential: <5%.
21. Artikel1: if intersectional feminism is really your thing. Electoral potential: <5%.
22. Niet Stemmers: if you're a non-voter but you're voting anyway? Electoral potential: 0 (come on, their voters aren't voting...).
23: Libertarische Partij: if you think this country should become much more FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE BUT SOCIALLY LIBERAL. Also my first electoral love; 2012 parliamentary election, never forget Electoral potential: 0 (they even lost me lmao)
24: Lokaal in de Kamer: if you're a local, probably corrupt politician and you figure national politicians are spectacularly unpopular so why not try? Electoral potential: 0.
25. JEZUS LEEFT: if you think Jesus is alive? Electoral potential: 0.
26. StemNL: if you want to vote on issues instead of for parties and candidates. Electoral potential: 0.
27. MenS and Spirit/Basisinkomen/Blah blah blah: if you think homeopathy works, we should work on our chakras more, vaccines may not work, etc. Electoral potential: 0.
28. VDP: if you're a Turk, hate Jews and gays, and think DENK are cucks for even pretending to be inclusive. Electoral potential: 0 (thank f**k)

Not on the ballot this time and sorely missed are SOPN (anti-chemtrail party; still got more votes than the LP in 2012...), IQ Partij (openly racist party by a guy with an insane German accent who thinks Ashkenazi Jews are dangerous) and the LibDems (someone who has too much money but is antisemitic too).

I love how the Netherlands has PR with no threshold and they still have more fringe parties than most Western countries.

[DC Al Fine]

I'd prefer option two.

The Netherlands is unusually unsuited for FPTP. Although the nature of the parties is driven by the system, the citizens themselves play a role as well. Given that the electorate is quite fragmented, it's entirely possible that a party could win a Westminster style landslide on 25-30% of the vote. Better to have regional MMP IMO.

[DC Al Fine]

This one is also interesting (though of course this may be different on election day). Shows how incredibly dealigned Dutch voters are:

VVD:
The number of voters that view the VVD as their unique preference amounts to 9 seats, so this is technically their floor. The number of voters that view the VVD as their preferred option, but not their only option, amounts to 17 seats. The number of voters that don't view the VVD as their preferred option but sympathize with the party amounts to 22 seats. Ceiling: 48 seats.

PvdA:
Unique preference: 4 seats. Preference: 7 seats. Sympathy: 22 seats. Ceiling: 33 seats.

PVV:
Unique preference: 15 seats (the highest of all parties, and exactly what they got in 2012). Preference: 12 seats. Sympathy: 14 seats. Ceiling: 41 seats.

SP:
Unique preference: 3 seats. Preference: 7 seats. Sympathy: 25 seats (but most of them are unlikely to vote for the SP as long as their campaign is piss-poor). Ceiling: 35 seats.

CDA:
Unique preference: 4 seats. Preference: 14 seats. Sympathy: 23 seats. Ceiling: 41 seats.

D66:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 14. Sympathy: 29. Ceiling: 46 (but this has been the case forever).

CU:
Unique preference: 2. Preference: 4. Sympathy: 10.

GL:
Unique preference: 4 (which is what they got in 2012). Preference: 10. Sympathy: 28. Ceiling: 42.

SGP:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 2. Sympathy: 6. Ceiling: 11 (lol).

PvdD:
Unique preference: 2. Preference: 3. Sympathy: 9. Ceiling: 14.

50Plus:
Unique preference: 3. Preference: 6. Sympathy: 16. Ceiling: 25.

Very interesting. I like how it shows D66's ridiculously massive gap between floor and ceiling.

[DC Al Fine]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

They can't have the debate on another day?