Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

I dont think many expect the current coalition make it through it, so who knows. I think it depends which coalition will be formed. If its VVD+CDA+D66+CU with outside support of SGP, i think such a coalition can be stable as the social issues will be discussed and agreed beforehand. A coalition with PvdA or GL will be more unstable. 2019 will be a year to watch for any coalition as the senete is elected again.

[DavidB.]

[Dutch Conservative]

My prediction (not yet my final one):

VVD  25
PVV  28
CDA  24
D66  15
GL    15
PvdA 9
SP    13
CU     5
SGP   4
50+   5
PvdD  3
DENK 2
FvD   2

I think the PVV might surge, because Turkey is dominating the campaign in these last days. I think Erdogan will further escalate the situation and Wilders will benefit from that. Tonight Wilders succesfully framed Rutte as unreliable (athough it was a good performance for Rutte). And my guess is the PVV is structurally underpolled.
I further predict that the PvdA will not reach 10 seats.
I have no idea of D66 or GL will become larger, but I do think Buma is a good campaigner and will become the third largest party.
FvD will certainly get some seats, it might even be more than 2. I know many people who are considering voting for Baudet.

The changes in these last days might be large, because many people are still not certain what to vote (GfK says 4 in 10, I&O says 7 in 10).

[rob in cal]

  Wonder if Erdogan is hoping for the PVV to surge at the end and do well, as this would fit his narrative of the Dutch, German and Austrian axis of fascism.

[DavidB.]

For people who want to predict even more I'm going to have this list up. Going to fill it out myself tomorrow evening:

(1 point):
Largest party:
Largest in Amsterdam:
Largest in Utrecht (city):
Largest in Rotterdam:
Largest in Den Haag:

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg:
Largest in Zuid-Holland:
Largest in Noord-Holland:
Largest in Flevoland:
Largest in Zeeland:
Largest in Overijssel:
Largest in Friesland:
Largest in Groningen:
Largest in Drenthe:
Largest in Noord-Brabant:
Largest in Utrecht (province):
Largest in Gelderland:

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)?
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL?
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard?
Best VVD municipality?
Best CDA municipality?
Best PVV municipality?
Best GL municipality?
Best D66 municipality?
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam?
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam?
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague?
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV.
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg?
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points?
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague?

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality?
Best DENK municipality?
Best VNL municipality?
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? (only points if all correct)

[freek]

That link doesn't seem towork. Hopefully this does:

 

[DavidB.]

@Freek: Hmmm, for me it still works. Weird. But thanks for putting it up again.

The percentage of supporters by party that are sure to vote (91%-100%). The Volkskrant article says that there are a lot of young, lower educated PVV supporters who may not turn out.

[freek]

@Freek: Hmmm, for me it still works. Weird. But thanks for putting it up again.

The percentage of supporters by party that are sure to vote (91%-100%). The Volkskrant article says that there are a lot of young, lower educated PVV supporters who may not turn out.

Most surprisingly for me is the relatively low score for ChristenUnie.

[jeron]

The debate between Rutte and Wilders was great. I think Wilders had the upper hand but am obviously extremely biased.

Obviously. I haven't seen the debate myself, but everyone I talked to thought Rutte had the upper hand.

[SunSt0rm]

The debate between Rutte and Wilders was great. I think Wilders had the upper hand but am obviously extremely biased.

Obviously. I haven't seen the debate myself, but everyone I talked to thought Rutte had the upper hand.

I also thought it was Rutte who had the upper hand as well

[DavidB.]

And, in turn, I wouldn't expect anything different of D66/VVD voters Here's to hoping both Rutte and Wilders did well in consolidating their base. I'd like to see a large VVD in government and a large PVV outside of it. But I'm voting Forum.

[Pericles]

The trend is going against Wilders which is good, and the polls do show him falling. I hope the VVD wins and D66 gets into government. Wilders had very little chance of becoming PM, and what has not been pointed out is his support is at roughly the same level as 2010, when he got 24 seats and around 15% of the vote. However, the polls could be wrong, and Wilders could still come first.

[Pericles]

Unfortunately the latest polls show the PVV numbers stabilizing and going back up. Maybe Turkey did have an impact but the polls won't be able to catch it.

[ApatheticAustrian]

as long as wilders is wilders "winning" the election hasn't any consequences for the broader political landscape.

[Angel of Death]

The Pirate Party is now getting a seat from another poller.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

@Freek: Hmmm, for me it still works. Weird. But thanks for putting it up again.

The percentage of supporters by party that are sure to vote (91%-100%). The Volkskrant article says that there are a lot of young, lower educated PVV supporters who may not turn out.

I'm guessing that 50Plus figure is because of low sample size, unless the Dutch elderly are a low voting bloc.

[DavidB.]

I'm guessing that 50Plus figure is because of low sample size, unless the Dutch elderly are a low voting bloc.

Dutch elderly aren't, but 50Plus voters aren't representative for the Dutch elderly: they are much more likely to be disappointed with politics, to have lost their trust in other parties etc. Think of them as old SP/PVV voters (which they often would be if 50Plus didn't exist, or they would be non-voters). I think the figure may be accurate.

[SunSt0rm]

The most loyal elderlies are CDA voters who do turn out, not 50Plus voters, who David says are similar to PVV and SP voters. I am quite suprise about the turnout of D66 expected it higher, higher than GL.

Tonight it will be the last debate. 10 debates will be hold

Undercard debate:
SGP vs 50Plus vs Nieuwe Wegen
PvdD vs Denk vs VNL

Main debate
Klaver (GL) vs Buma (CDA) about Income difference
Pechtold (D66) vs Roemer (SP) about Europe
Segers (CU) vs Rutte (VVD) about Energy
Asscher (PvdA) vs Wilders (PVV) about Integration
Buma (CDA) vs Pechtold (D66) about Security
Roemer (SP) vs Asscher (PvdA) about Health Care
Rutte (VVD) vs Klaver (GL) about Refugees
Wilders (PVV) vs Segers (CU) about Islam

Debate between VNL and Denk will be hilarious. Furthermore, debates between Asscher vs Wilders Buma vs Pechtold and Rutte vs Klaver will be interesting

[Tintrlvr]

The most loyal elderlies are CDA voters who do turn out, not 50Plus voters, who David says are similar to PVV and SP voters. I am quite suprise about the turnout of D66 expected it higher, higher than GL.

This was striking. I would have thought D66 voters were basically GL voters but wealthier and maybe a bit older. GL voters being more likely to vote than D66 voters is shocking, to the point where it almost makes the survey seem dubious.

[DavidB.]

Kuzu just decided to skip the kiddie table debate. Truly the mirror image of the man he hates so much. VNL are f**ked. For them, everything depended on Roos roasting Kuzu.

And this is I&O's final poll, big if true. VVD to 27 (+1), PVV to 16 (-4). Let's remember that this poll structurally underpolls both the combined right and the PVV, though. I also feel this has outlier written all over it, but who knows? Highest figure = potential high on the basis of this poll, median figure = current estimate on the basis of this poll, lowest figure = potential low on the basis of this poll.

[SunSt0rm]

Kuzu just decided to skip the kiddie table debate. Truly the mirror image of the man he hates so much. VNL are f**ked. For them, everything depended on Roos roasting Kuzu.

And this is I&O's final poll, big if true. VVD to 27 (+1), PVV to 16 (-4). Let's remember that this poll structurally underpolls both the combined right and the PVV, though. I also feel this has outlier written all over it, but who knows? Highest figure = potential high on the basis of this poll, median figure = current estimate on the basis of this poll, lowest figure = potential low on the basis of this poll.

VNL is screwed, their only advantage to FvD is that they would debate with Denk.

Poll is too good to be true. Purple plus would even have a majority in this poll

[Bumaye]

Asscher (PvdA) vs Wilders (PVV) about Integration
Wilders (PVV) vs Segers (CU) about Islam

 
 
Why do they deliver these topics to Wilders on a silver platter? Everyone knows his positions about Islam. Let him talk about Health Care or Income Inequality instead. 
 
 
About the I&O poll: A bump for Rutte makes sense. He has proven to quite some right-wing voters that he is willing to fight back when countries like Turkey go to far. That being said I agree that the PVV is to weak in that poll. I can see them coming in 3rd or maybe 4th if GL has a good turnout, but 5th is unrealistic.

[DavidB.]

Poll is too good to be true. Purple plus would even have a majority in this poll

I think Purple Plus has had a majority in various polls recently. This option may not necessarily be numerically impossible (though I still think it will fall short of a majority) but mostly just unrealistic, first because of the fact that it requires the VVD to enter a coalition with two left-wing parties and three more progressive parties without the CDA and second because it requires an eviscerated PvdA to enter another coalition with the VVD -- led by Mark Rutte, given the current numbers.

[DL]

If this final poll came true - why not cut the VVD out of the action entirely and have a D66/CDA/GL/SP/PvdA (maybe throw in CU too)...and have a centre left gov't with the D66 leader as PM?

[SunSt0rm]

Final Poll De Hond