Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

And here's the last Peilingwijzer:


PVV probably slightly too low due to LISS having them at 15 and I&O at 16 (though of course they may be right and all the others may be wrong too).

[freek]

Nice, Dutch Conservative! Will fill it out myself after the debate, together with my seat prediction.

I am volunteering in a polling station again tomorrow, which includes counting. That's the part I am not looking forward too. Especially the first part (opening a ballot, find the red dot, sort, repeat) is hard work.

I do this in second-order elections (in my parents' suburb) but prefer to go to a watchparty with friends this time, since it's the general. May be making some shorter posts here occasionally from my phone, the quality of which will progressively decline as I drink more.

What's it going to be for you tomorrow, Freek, if I may ask?

CDA, as usual.

Not a big fan of Buma, I didn't like his style of opposition. Not a big fan of the current program, I am more liberal than the party. But I am also too conservative for D66, and in my opinion VVD is only interested in money and cars (i.e. the political wing of the Telegraaf) . Things I am not interested in. Which only leaves CDA, in my opinion. I am voting for Anne Kuik, #11.

I grew up on a farm in Tubbergen municipality, maybe that is the reason for my CDA preference.

[DavidB.]

Solid choice Never thought I'd say it, but I'm looking forward to seeing the CDA govern again.

I will cast my vote in parliament, for Theo Hiddema, #2 on the FvD list. This will be the fifth party I vote for. Pretty weird idea considering that there are plenty of people in their 70s and 80s who voted for only one or two (KVP and CDA...) parties.

[ApatheticAustrian]

just realized Wikileaks was at it again this week.

[freek]

Solid choice Never thought I'd say it, but I'm looking forward to seeing the CDA govern again.

I will cast my vote in parliament, for Theo Hiddema, #2 on the FvD list. This will be the fifth party I vote for. Pretty weird idea considering that there are plenty of people in their 70s and 80s who voted for only one or two (KVP and CDA...) parties.

Yes, I voted VVD 1998 - 2003, and CU/SGP for European Parliament since 2004. Otherwise always CDA.

[Tender Branson]

Currently watching the debate between Justin Bieber-Trudeau (GroenLinks) and the CDA guy:

[DavidB.]

Good debate but a bit boring. Can't say there was one person shining. Wilders was disappointing. FvD it is.

[Dutch Conservative]

Good debate but a bit boring. Can't say there was one person shining. Wilders was disappointing. FvD it is.

Really? I thought it was a very strong performance by Wilders (but ofcourse i am biased). In his first section he totally destroyed Asscher. His second section was very effective, because he was able to frame Islam as the center issue and position himself as the outsider. I thought he was the most effective in convincing voters who may doubt between PVV and FvD/VNL (whink whink).

Roemer and Rutte also very strong.
Buma and Pechtold solid.
Klaver was a bit nervous and I think he isn't really satisfied by his performance.
Segers and especially Asscher were weak. Asscher looked really angry.

I thought SGP and Monasch (Nieuwe Wegen) performed good in the first round with the small parties.

[SunSt0rm]

Good debate but a bit boring. Can't say there was one person shining. Wilders was disappointing. FvD it is.

Wilders was quite good, he roasted Asscher, who was dreadful. Roemer was also strong. Buma was awkward with the debate with Pechtold. Asscher is the biggest loser and I may believe now the PvdA will reach single seats now

[DC Al Fine]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!! 

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It's much bigger this time around, which is crazy. They should just let us pick a party first and then a candidate, which would save a lot of space. Dutch who reside outside the country already vote that way, no reason not to do it here. And yeah, you only vote for one candidate.

Has a party ever won more seats than it had candidates on its list?

[Dutch Conservative]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!! 

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It's much bigger this time around, which is crazy. They should just let us pick a party first and then a candidate, which would save a lot of space. Dutch who reside outside the country already vote that way, no reason not to do it here. And yeah, you only vote for one candidate.

Has a party ever won more seats than it had candidates on its list?

No, that has never happened as far as I know. A party can put max. 80 people on their list (if they had 15 seats or more in the previous election). And: in each district a party can put different names on the ballot: there are 20 districts (kieskringen) so in theory max. 1600 candidates. The largest number of seats ever achieved was 54 (CDA in the 80's).

[DavidB.]

I feel stupid because I know I'm placing too much trust in stupid polls. I still recall vividly how I made my 323-215 prediction in the U.S. election and I'm bound to make the same mistake again, particularly in my assessment of the amount of support the PVV has. They might as well get 26 seats. Or 18. That said, unlike last time around, this time I know I will be wrong. The question is only how wrong I will be. I'll call it a guesstimate rather than a prediction, otherwise I'd have to be more careful with the numbers.

Final guesstimate:

VVD: 28 seats
PVV: 22 seats
CDA: 20 seats
D66: 18 seats
GroenLinks: 17 seats
SP: 15 seats
PvdA: 10 seats
CU: 5 seats
50Plus: 5 seats
PvdD: 4 seats
SGP: 3 seats
DENK: 2 seats
FvD: 1 seat

73.5% turnout

Has a party ever won more seats than it had candidates on its list?

It has happened on the municipal level.

[DavidB.]

Really? I thought it was a very strong performance by Wilders (but ofcourse i am biased). In his first section he totally destroyed Asscher. His second section was very effective, because he was able to frame Islam as the center issue and position himself as the outsider. I thought he was the most effective in convincing voters who may doubt between PVV and FvD/VNL (whink whink).

I thought he was strong against Asscher but weak against Segers. This should not have been a lecture about Islamic theology but rather a debate on the statement whether, for instance, the Netherlands can handle more Muslim immigration, or whether the Netherlands should adopt an Eastern European policy on migration. Those are things that matter to people. He shouldn't be droning on about Muslim prophet Mohammed (even if Islam is obviously relevant here) but rather about the thousands of Mohammeds who will obtain Dutch citizenship due to the establishment parties' policies. That is the direct threat to our country's future and a much more convincing story than what he did now.

[Lachi]

What is the dimensions of the ballot paper?

Surely it's not as long as the Australian Senate ballot paper, right?

[PetrSokol]

Are there any aliances fo rsurplus votes this year? As 2010 PvdA-GL-SP?

[jaichind]

Updated prediction based on recent events.  My main logic is the election moving toward a VVD vs PVV polarization. Of course I really do not know much most likely do not know what I am talking about

VVD  28
PVV  24
CDA  20
D66  17
GL    16
SP    15
PvdA 11
CU     5
SGP   4
50+   4
PvdD  4
DENK 1
FvD   1

[DavidB.]

(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: GroenLinks
Largest in Utrecht (city) GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: VVD
Largest in Zeeland: VVD
Largest in Overijssel: CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: CDA
Largest in Drenthe: VVD
Largest in Noord-Brabant: VVD
Largest in Utrecht (province) VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Under
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA, D66, GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Under
Best VVD municipality? Laren
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Rucphen
Best GL municipality? Utrecht
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Under
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD, D66, PVV
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Under
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Over
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Utrecht (probably actually some random place)
Best DENK municipality? The Hague
Best VNL municipality? Rotterdam (probably actually some random place close to R'dam)
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? (only points if all correct) DENK and FvD

[DavidB.]

What is the dimensions of the ballot paper?

It depends on the electoral district (which are relevant for administrative purposes only, not for seat allocation; but some tiny parties are not standing in all constituencies). Don't know about the Australian one but ours is damn huge.

Are there any aliances fo rsurplus votes this year? As 2010 PvdA-GL-SP?

CU and SGP have an alliance, as do GL and PvdA.

[jaichind]

What is the dimensions of the ballot paper?

It depends on the electoral district (which are relevant for administrative purposes only, not for seat allocation; but some tiny parties are not standing in all constituencies). Don't know about the Australian one but ours is damn huge.

Are there any aliances fo rsurplus votes this year? As 2010 PvdA-GL-SP?

CU and SGP have an alliance, as do GL and PvdA.

So SP dropped out of the PvdA-GL alliance ?

[DavidB.]

So SP dropped out of the PvdA-GL alliance ?

They didn't really 'drop out', these alliances are always formed on a one-time basis. The SP didn't want to associate themselves with the PvdA in an electoral alliance given the fact that they were strongly opposed to the PvdA's policies in government and present themselves as the chief alternative to the PvdA. This may be the last election in which electoral alliances exist, as a parliamentary majority wants (wanted?) to abolish them.

[DavidB.]

So it's election day. Polls are open from 7:30 AM until 9 PM across the country except for some train stations: at some train stations polling stations already open right now at midnight, others close early (e.g. 6 PM), and the same goes for some polling stations in some large shops.

NOS will have an exit poll at 9 PM and make prognoses as results come in. The exit polls in 2010 and (more so) in 2012 were accurate but clearly underestimated PVV support (and the same goes for the exit polls for the European Parliament election in 2014). Counting takes place by hand again, so it may take some time before the first municipalities come in, and the first ones that come in are tiny and unrepresentative: these will be the very affluent Arnhem suburb of Rozendaal and some West Frisian Islands.

[SunSt0rm]

Final prediction
VVD 29
PVV 23
CDA 21
D66 16
GL 16
SP 14
PvdA 10
CU 6
50+ 5
PvvD 4
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 1

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: GL
Largest in Utrecht (city): GL
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: VVD
Largest in Zeeland: CDA
Largest in Overijssel: CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: VVD
Largest in Noord-Brabant: VVD
Largest in Utrecht (province): VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Under
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-D66-GL
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Under
Best VVD municipality? Laren
Best CDA municipality? Tubbergen
Best PVV municipality? Rucphen
Best GL municipality? Nijmegen
Best D66 municipality? Saba (if it counts otherwise Wageningen)
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Under
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Under
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Under
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Under
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Smaller
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? Almere
Best DENK municipality? Rotterdam
Best VNL municipality? Edam-Volendam
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? (only points if all correct) DENK & FvD

[DavidB.]

Nice, glad to see some more people are making predictions! Is it going to be VVD or D66 for you?

[SunSt0rm]

Nice, glad to see some more people are making predictions! Is it going to be VVD or D66 for you?

D66, feel closer with them and want to give them a stronger position in the negotiation of a possible centre right coalition with CU and SGP. I trust Buma and also Pechtold to refuse coalition with SP and trust VVD to win against PVV

[Mike88]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that there could be a shy VVD vote out there:

32 VVD
23 PVV
21 CDA
17 GL
16 D66
12 SP
  9 PvdA
  7 CU
  4 50+
  4 PvvD
  3 SGP
  1 Denk
  1 FvD