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  NC-PPP: Hagan +5%
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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Hagan +5%  (Read 2092 times)
JRP1994
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« on: June 17, 2014, 10:17:07 am »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/hagan-lead-up-to-5-with-unpopular-legislature-in-session.html

Hagan: 39%
Tillis: 34%
Haugh (L): 11%
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2014, 10:18:33 am »

11% the lib?

Hmmmm, I don t believe it
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2014, 10:20:22 am »

Okay, so I'm not the only one who finds the Libertarian getting 11% as fishy?
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JRP1994
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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2014, 10:21:59 am »


Okay, so I'm not the only one who finds the Libertarian getting 11% as fishy?

Yeah..... Not in North Carolina.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2014, 10:22:35 am »

Okay, so I'm not the only one who finds the Libertarian getting 11% as fishy?
We are at least 3 Tongue

Seriously, PPP is a really good pollster overall, but their main problem is that they always overestimate the libertarians.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2014, 10:23:38 am »

Well, they didn't even poll the Libertarian here until after Tillis won the primary too. This just doesn't seem right.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2014, 10:26:16 am »

Not great for Tillis, but honestly, Hagan can't be comfortable with getting below 40% in this poll.
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Flake
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« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2014, 10:50:16 am »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-06-15

Summary: D: 39%, R: 34%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2014, 12:06:18 pm »

Well, they also asked for preferences without the Lib. candidate:

Q4 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat Kay Hagan, Republican Thom Tillis, and Libertarian Sean Haugh. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Kay Hagan...................................................... 39%
Thom Tillis ...................................................... 34%
Sean Haugh.................................................... 11%
Undecided....................................................... 16%

Q5 Horse race with Haugh supporters asked whether they lean Hagan or Tillis:

Kay Hagan...................................................... 42%
Thom Tillis ...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 20%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_617.pdf
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2014, 12:27:11 pm »

Translation: Hagan and Tillis in virtual dead heat.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2014, 12:28:56 pm »
« Edited: June 17, 2014, 12:41:53 pm by eric82oslo »

Well, they also asked for preferences without the Lib. candidate:

Q4 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat Kay Hagan, Republican Thom Tillis, and Libertarian Sean Haugh. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Kay Hagan...................................................... 39%
Thom Tillis ...................................................... 34%
Sean Haugh.................................................... 11%
Undecided....................................................... 16%

Q5 Horse race with Haugh supporters asked whether they lean Hagan or Tillis:

Kay Hagan...................................................... 42%
Thom Tillis ...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 20%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_617.pdf

Both great news for Hagan, especially the answer to the second question. Tongue
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Never
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« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2014, 12:29:13 pm »

It is a bit fishy that the Libertarian is in double-digits, but if this is actually the case, it seems that Hagan would have a lead of about 5% like PPP is indicating, as I feel that Libertarians usually take more votes from Republicans than Democrats. Anyhow, I agree with the sentiment that being under 40% is not a good place for any Democrat in a slightly Republican state like North Carolina.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2014, 12:39:25 pm »

Translation: Hagan and Tillis in virtual dead heat.
I don't know about that, I'd think Hagan's a bit ahead given she's up 5 and the Libertarian vote actually splits in her favor somewhat...
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2014, 12:41:43 pm »

Translation: Hagan and Tillis in virtual dead heat.
2014 north carolina is the new 2010 nevada Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2014, 12:45:58 pm »

Also remember that PPP is polling registered voters, while Magellan recently already polled likely voters and had Hagan+1.

Could be a little closer than what PPP shows.
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Marxist-Cornpopist Thought
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« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2014, 01:06:55 pm »

Translation: Hagan and Tillis in virtual dead heat.

Normally I'd be bitching, but with the libertarian polling so high, I think it's a good time to unskew.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2014, 01:12:03 pm »
« Edited: June 17, 2014, 01:21:06 pm by eric82oslo »

"Only 18% of voters approve of the job the General Assembly is doing to 54% who disapprove. Perhaps as an extension of that, Tillis has just a 23% favorability rating with 45% of voters rating him unfavorably." Smiley

"On a couple of the more recent hot button issues the legislature has dealt with, voters do not support the Republicans' approach. Only 31% think funding teachers raises through the House's proposal of  increased lottery sales (19%) or the Senate's proposal of cutting teacher assistants (12%) is a good idea, while 55% would prefer getting that money by raising taxes on those making more than $250,000 a year. Even Republicans (40/39) would prefer increasing taxes on the wealthy to either the House or Senate's proposal." Smiley

"North Carolinians support the proposal President Obama made requiring existing power plants to cut carbon pollution by up to 30%, 58/23. Democrats (71/12) and independents (59/20) both support it overwhelmingly and even Republicans (42/39) do narrowly." Smiley

"The student loan bill going through Congress right now divides Kay Hagan and Richard Burr, but voters are much more on the Democrats' side. By a 74/13 spread they say they support letting students refinance their loans at the current lower rates, and that has at least 69% support across party lines." Smiley

"Finally increasing the minimum wage to $10 an hour continues to be popular as we find every month in North Carolina. This time the numbers break down 55% supporting it to 34% who are opposed." Smiley

All great news in North Carolina this month. Tongue
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krazen1211
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« Reply #17 on: June 17, 2014, 02:37:22 pm »

Junk poll!
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #18 on: June 17, 2014, 02:40:01 pm »

Not really, the R internal Magellan had her up too. She isnt gonna go quiety, and beat the odds, yet.
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Impeachment Inquiry
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« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2014, 03:22:26 pm »

Just because a poll doesn't show a Republican leading doesn't mean the poll is wrong.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #20 on: June 17, 2014, 05:02:40 pm »

Hagan is leading by 4 when the L guy is not included, as ericsolo indicated.
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LeBron FitzGerald
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« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2014, 09:19:21 pm »

Let's keep in mind this was a non-partisan PPP poll and that their company is in the state itself, so this is probably one of the most reliable post-primary polls even if Haugh is oversampled. It also shows that Hagan's numbers have improved because she only led 38-36 with Haugh in the race back in PPP's May poll and she was tied with Tillis 41-41 w/o Haugh.

I really believe Hagan's chances continue to be underestimated. This race is right on the border line of lean Democratic, and the only thing going in Tillis' favor right now is that after July, the General Assembly's short 6-week session is over (barring Gov. McCrory calling a special session) and won't be able to be as hog wild this year as they were last year. Still, it helps having Haugh in this race, no 50% threshold and Tillis proving he's Romney-like gaffe prone which all bodes well for Hagan.
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« Reply #22 on: June 18, 2014, 08:39:50 am »

Haugh's support will of course collapse mightily by Election Day. Normally I'd say that's good news for Tillis, but I'm surprised to see Hagen actually running slightly ahead as Haugh voters' second choice.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: June 18, 2014, 02:04:49 pm »

Haugh's support will of course collapse mightily by Election Day. Normally I'd say that's good news for Tillis, but I'm surprised to see Hagen actually running slightly ahead as Haugh voters' second choice.

I think the CW that people who vote libertarian would ALWAYS overwhelmingly break Republican is starting to falter.

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html

Sarvis got more liberals than conservatives, and did best among moderates, which solidly favored McAuliffe. This doesn't conclusively prove they would've broken for McAuliffe (other demographic crosstabs suggest otherwise), but it shows that it isn't nearly as clear cut as many pretend it is.
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Miles
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« Reply #24 on: June 18, 2014, 02:08:03 pm »

Ugh, I'm not sure what to make of this. This is exactly the type of thing that gives PPP haters fodder.

The best pieces of news for me here are their approvals/favorables. Hagan is at 42/46, which is better than the 37/50-ish she was consistently at a few months ago. Tillis is at 23/45. Thats more negative that I'd expect and Hagan needs to keep it as low as possible.
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