NC-PPP: Hagan +5%
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  NC-PPP: Hagan +5%
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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Hagan +5%  (Read 2599 times)
Miles
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« Reply #25 on: June 18, 2014, 07:05:17 PM »

Undecideds in the Hagan/Tillis matchup are only slightly R-leaning. 21% of Romney voters are unsure, 15% of Obama's are.

Also, something to note is that if Haugh keeps up this type of support he'll likely get invited to teh debates. The threshold to get into the GOP primary debate was 7%.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #26 on: June 19, 2014, 12:52:54 AM »

Haugh's support will of course collapse mightily by Election Day. Normally I'd say that's good news for Tillis, but I'm surprised to see Hagen actually running slightly ahead as Haugh voters' second choice.
The libertarian support is fairly even here, but he does in fact take more from Tilllis. Look at the numbers.
39 Hagan, 34 Tillis, 11 Haugh
42 Hagan, 38 Tilllis

Put in the libertarian, and what he does in this poll is take 3 points from Hagan (42 down to 39), but takes 4 points from Tillis (42 down to 38), with the remaining 4% coming from the undecided column. Essentially, Tillis is winning the libertarian vote 36%-27%, with a heavy 37% undecided.
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Badger
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« Reply #27 on: June 19, 2014, 10:14:14 AM »

Haugh's support will of course collapse mightily by Election Day. Normally I'd say that's good news for Tillis, but I'm surprised to see Hagen actually running slightly ahead as Haugh voters' second choice.

I think the CW that people who vote libertarian would ALWAYS overwhelmingly break Republican is starting to falter.

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html

Sarvis got more liberals than conservatives, and did best among moderates, which solidly favored McAuliffe. This doesn't conclusively prove they would've broken for McAuliffe (other demographic crosstabs suggest otherwise), but it shows that it isn't nearly as clear cut as many pretend it is.

Good points all around, Icespear. Maybe libertarian-leaning southern voters are more receptive to considering Democrats as social conservatism is more strongly emophasized by southern Republicans than elsewhere?

Still, I say the most accurate way to poll a race is to not mention 3rd party candidates by name as an option but include those respondents who volunteer a 3rd party candidate. Exceptions should only be made for MAJOR 3rd party candidates like Cutler in ME.
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