Haugh's support will of course collapse mightily by Election Day. Normally I'd say that's good news for Tillis, but I'm surprised to see Hagen actually running slightly ahead as Haugh voters' second choice.
I think the CW that people who vote libertarian would ALWAYS overwhelmingly break Republican is starting to falter.
http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.htmlSarvis got more liberals than conservatives, and did best among moderates, which solidly favored McAuliffe. This doesn't conclusively prove they would've broken for McAuliffe (other demographic crosstabs suggest otherwise), but it shows that it isn't nearly as clear cut as many pretend it is.
