NH: Suffolk: Brown trailing by 10

[Miles]

Article.

Shaheen (D)- 49%
Brown (R)- 39%

Brown leads Bob Smith 40-12.

[NHLiberal]

Brown's unfavorables are dangerously high

[windjammer]

I understand more why he's playing the defensive, making ads in order to improve his image. He spoke recently about his past.

[RogueBeaver]

bqhatevwr

[SWE]

At least Scott Brown has a better chance of winning than Allison Grimes does

[Tender Branson]

ShaheenCare @ work !

[NHLiberal]

At least Scott Brown has a better chance of winning than Allison Grimes does

I hope you aren't serious...

[free my dawg]

At least Scott Brown has a better chance of winning than Allison Grimes does

I hope you aren't serious...

He's not, but Larry Sabato is.

[King]

If he wanted to do good by carpetbagging, he'd move to Maine and primary LePage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At least Scott Brown has a better chance of winning than Allison Grimes does

KY isnt gonna decide control of Senate a tossup of either AK/AR and either NC/La will give us the 50 seats we need to keep control. But, Shaheen isnt gonna lose to Brown.

[IceSpear]

With all of Brown's gaffes, missteps, and charges of carpetbagging, I think the NHGOP actually would've been better off with some unknown state senator.

[SWE]

With all of Brown's gaffes, missteps, and charges of carpetbagging, I think the NHGOP actually would've been better off with some unknown state senator.

They'd probably do better if they didn't nominate any candidate at all

[SWE]

At least Scott Brown has a better chance of winning than Allison Grimes does

KY isnt gonna decide control of Senate a tossup of either AK/AR and either NC/La will give us the 50 seats we need to keep control. But, Shaheen isnt gonna lose to Brown.

Do you have anything to say besides that same post every time?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At least Scott Brown has a better chance of winning than Allison Grimes does

I hope you aren't serious...

He's not, but Larry Sabato is.

It's going to be interesting to see what he comes up with for an explanation of why it took him so long if he eventually agrees to reluctantly change the rating. Nearly everyone else has the race at a lower rating and has had it there for months - Cook has it at Toss-Up, RCP and EP have it at Toss-Up/Tilt R. Rothenberg and Daily Kos has it at Lean R (which is also my own rating of the race). Five Thirty Eight has McConnell as an 80% favorite, which still qualifies for 'Lean R' under my guidelines, albeit just barely. Only Sabato and NYT (who ranks McConnell as an 88% favorite) still insist on holding the race at Likely R.

I personally see McConnell as a 67% favorite. Based on polling alone, Grimes is actually about a 50.1% favorite. The 67% McConnell chance comes from Kentucky's red tendencies and McConnell's large fundraising advantage, as well as his past ability to survive bad democratic years (see McConnell vs. Lunsford, 2008). This fits right into Lean R for me. To deserve a Likely R rating from me, McConnell would need about an 85% chance of victory, which I don't see him having until he has a consistent polling lead of about 6 points or so. (currently, an average of May/June non-outlier polls puts Grimes ahead by 0.3%). But apparently Sabato has much lower standards for a Likely R rating.
------------------------------

Regardless of what Sabato may believe, Shaheen is slightly better off in New Hampshire, with probably a 73% chance of winning or so. Scott Brown is a moderate, top-tier candidate, but he may have entered too late - Shaheen was able to run several negative ads against him and partially define him under her terms before he even made an exploratory committee. Plus there's the carpetbagging charges.

The biggest reason Brown won in deep blue Massachusetts in 2010 was that Coakley completely refused to campaign for nearly the entire campaign, believing that the political leanings of MA would carry her over no matter what Brown's campaign strategy was or what the national republican brand was like. Unfortunately for Brown, Shaheen will be just like Warren in that she won't take their slight advantage for granted and will actually continue to campaign. Sure, Shaheen definitely isn't a bipartisan senator, supporting whatever the 'reid position' happens to be on essentially every issue, but her state still likes her a lot, and she leads by 7 points in the latest polling average (quite good for a purple state democrat), a lead that Brown will have to work hard to take away.

Brown wasn't a bad senator for MA at all - in fact, he left office with a 59% approval rating (People liked him, they just liked Warren even more) and still managed to hold Warren to 54% of the vote in 2012, while Obama was receiving 61%. But that won't give him an easy time in NH, regardless of what Sabato may think.

With all of Brown's gaffes, missteps, and charges of carpetbagging, I think the NHGOP actually would've been better off with some unknown state senator.

They'd probably do better if they didn't nominate any candidate at all

LOL.

---It's worth noting that Smith, Rubens, and Testerman are still polling worse against Shaheen than Brown is, although Smith isn't polling much worse - his average deficit against Shaheen is only about 10 points, just 3 points worse than Brown.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If he wanted to do good by carpetbagging, he'd move to Maine and primary LePage.

I couldn't agree more. He was born in Maine, so it's not like he has any less of a claim to be 'from' there than he does New Hampshire. More, if anything.

[Lief 🗽]

Looking forward to Brown getting a good thrashing here.

[DrScholl]

It's possible that he ends up losing by the same amount or more than he did in Massachusetts.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's possible that he ends up losing by the same amount or more than he did in Massachusetts.

It would certainly deeply shock him, he entered this race because the establishment (and his own thoughts to an extent) told him 'If you can draw 46% in MA in a fairly good democratic year (2012), you can win in NH - multiple times! Plus, we don't really have a strong challenger to Shaheen right now, and we really want one, so can you please run?". He eventually said yes.

If he does end up doing worse here than he did in MA (losing by 9 points or more), which is not completely out of the question, it does raise a question of whether he should have run in the MA special senate election last year (when turnout is more favorable to brown supporters), or perhaps for MA governor this year (when MA votes in a purple-blue fashion), rather than running in this race which has proved to be difficult for him so far despite the fact that NH is a swing state as opposed to Massachusetts which is often a deep blue state outside of gubernatorial races.

[free my dawg]

It's possible that he ends up losing by the same amount or more than he did in Massachusetts.

It would certainly deeply shock him, he entered this race because the establishment (and his own thoughts to an extent) told him 'If you can draw 46% in MA in a fairly good democratic year (2012), you can win in NH - multiple times! Plus, we don't really have a strong challenger to Shaheen right now, and we really want one, so can you please run?". He eventually said yes.

If he does end up doing worse here than he did in MA (losing by 9 points or more), which is not completely out of the question, it does raise a question of whether he should have run in the MA special senate election last year (when turnout is more favorable to brown supporters), or perhaps for MA governor this year (when MA votes in a purple-blue fashion), rather than running in this race which has proved to be difficult for him so far despite the fact that NH is a swing state as opposed to Massachusetts which is often a deep blue state outside of gubernatorial races.

He has dubious ties here. Moderation doesn't mean a thing when you aren't even from the state.

It's like me trying to run for office in Pennsylvania because I live there eight months a year now and have family in Philly.

[NHLiberal]

---It's worth noting that Smith, Rubens, and Testerman are still polling worse against Shaheen than Brown is, although Smith isn't polling much worse - his average deficit against Shaheen is only about 10 points, just 3 points worse than Brown.

Testerman dropped out and endorsed Smith. And yes, Brown is doing best in polling right now, but I'd be willing to bet that if he were to win the nomination, Rubens would do better against Shaheen than Brown. He's strong on gun rights, believes in global warming/cares about the environment, and actually has a concrete proposal for a replacement to Obamacare (rather than just "repeal"). He's also from New Hampshire.

He has dubious ties here. Moderation doesn't mean a thing when you aren't even from the state.

Exactly. It's hard to see why so few people understand that. Especially given how hostile most NH residents feel toward "Taxachusetts."

If he wanted to do good by carpetbagging, he'd move to Maine and primary LePage.

That'd be hilarious. He'd probably lose badly though. He really should have run for Governor of Masachusetts; I think Baker would have deferred to him.

[ElectionsGuy]

Clearly this should be one of the most hotly watched races in November [/beltwaymedia] [/politico]