KY SurveyUSA: Grimes +4 or +5
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  KY SurveyUSA: Grimes +4 or +5
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Author Topic: KY SurveyUSA: Grimes +4 or +5  (Read 1628 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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Junior Chimp
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« on: February 06, 2014, 06:10:50 PM »

Well, ya heard it from the cool guy (me)...

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20140206/NEWS010605/302030108/Bluegrass-Poll-Mitch-McConnell-trails-Alison-Lundergan-Grimes-U-S-Senate-race-46-42

Grimes beats McConnell by 4 or Bevin by 5. And that's SurveyUSA, which isn't exactly the most non-Republican pollster around.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2014, 06:25:01 PM »

Grimes and Nunn ahead, good.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2014, 09:01:09 PM »

This can't be! Sabato told me this was likely R! Just like Virginia which is only likely D despite Warner's 20 point lead.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2014, 12:06:05 AM »

This can't be! Sabato told me this was likely R! Just like Virginia which is only likely D despite Warner's 20 point lead.

Sabato rates them on probability of outcome, not on poll numbers.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2014, 03:01:33 AM »

SurveyUSA is historically an excellent KY pollster.

In 2004, they said Bush+21, Bush won by 20.

In 2008, they had McCain+16 and he won by 16.

Their 2012 poll cannot be used here, because it was conducted 2 months before the election while the other 2 were done just a few days before the election.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2014, 03:06:37 AM »

SurveyUSA is historically an excellent KY pollster.

I will always remember SurveyUSA as the folks who literally handed the 2003 governor election to Ernie Fletcher by putting out a press release saying he had already won. That was inexcusable.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2014, 03:16:10 AM »

SurveyUSA is historically an excellent KY pollster.

I will always remember SurveyUSA as the folks who literally handed the 2003 governor election to Ernie Fletcher by putting out a press release saying he had already won. That was inexcusable.

Do you mean this ?

Quote
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...

I don't think it's a sign that they are a Republican company, but more that they were absolutely sure he'd win and they were arguing it this way ("Chandler never led", "this is the biggest lead so far").
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2014, 03:19:33 AM »

SurveyUSA is historically an excellent KY pollster.

I will always remember SurveyUSA as the folks who literally handed the 2003 governor election to Ernie Fletcher by putting out a press release saying he had already won. That was inexcusable.

Do you mean this ?

I think that's the one. It might not have mattered, except that the media in Kentucky was so militantly pro-Fletcher that they ran with it.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2014, 03:22:23 AM »

Another interesting thing about that 2003 poll was that the youngest voters were the most Republican back then, unlike today.
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morgieb
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2014, 04:58:37 AM »

Time to move this to Toss-up?

I can't think of a poll except for Rassy that had McConnell had in a comfortable position at all. There's only so long that you can ignore polls.
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2014, 06:50:55 AM »

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Survey USA on 2014-02-03

Summary: D: 46%, R: 42%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Cryptic
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« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2014, 04:52:09 AM »

Looks promising! Still a ways to go and a lot can change, but still nice to see.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2014, 01:41:49 PM »

This can't be! Sabato told me this was likely R! Just like Virginia which is only likely D despite Warner's 20 point lead.

Sabato rates them on probability of outcome, not on poll numbers.

So VA is just as likely to go R as KY is to go D?

I know poll numbers aren't everything. But every single poll so far has shown that assumption to be pretty asinine.
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