SC-Wenzel: R Primary: Graham under 50 but up big
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  SC-Wenzel: R Primary: Graham under 50 but up big
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Author Topic: SC-Wenzel: R Primary: Graham under 50 but up big  (Read 571 times)
Miles
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« on: February 06, 2014, 10:59:44 AM »

Article.

[quote]If the election were held today, who would you vote for?

Lindsey Graham: 45.9 percent
Lee Bright 17.4 percent
Nancy Mace: 5.1 percent
Richard Cash: 4.9 percent
Bill Connor: 4.2 percent
Not sure: 22.5 percent.
Should Lindsey Graham be reelected or is it time for someone new?

Deserves reelection: 38 percent
Time for someone new: 49 percent
Not sure: 13 percent
/quote]
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2014, 11:04:02 AM »

I like Graham Sad
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2014, 11:06:48 AM »

He's going to lose if he's forced into a runoff, and judging from those "time for someone new" numbers, he will be.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2014, 12:36:56 PM »

He's going to lose if he's forced into a runoff, and judging from those "time for someone new" numbers, he will be.

His opponents likely won't be able to organize a good, unified effort against him in the two weeks between the primary and runoff.
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Morning in Atlas
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2014, 01:13:42 PM »

>wenzel
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2014, 06:58:32 PM »

Does he need 40% or 50% to avoid a run off?  I always get the Carolinas confused. 
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morgieb
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2014, 07:02:40 PM »

Does he need 40% or 50% to avoid a run off?  I always get the Carolinas confused. 
50% I think.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2014, 07:51:31 PM »

He's going to lose if he's forced into a runoff, and judging from those "time for someone new" numbers, he will be.

No, he's probably not -- in SC, runoffs occur almost immediately after the general election, so usually the key opposition figure that emerges fails to unify the vote and the most prominent candidate wins -- this is how Mark Sanford won, and he was far worse than Graham. The only counterexample I can think of is the Senate primary in 2004 (where DeMint emerged as the key opposition figure, then beat ex-Governor Beasley), but Beasley was far weaker than Graham or Sanford (Beasley led DeMint by just 11 points in the first round; Sanford led his opponent Bostic by 24 points, and in this poll Graham leads Bright by 29).

The danger to Graham is if someone -- probably Bright -- surges. But I don't think that's too likely considering no outside groups seem interested and he has far less money than Bright and other contenders on his heels to contend with.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2014, 05:44:16 AM »

Graham has his own poll out where he's at 53%.
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