KY SurveyUSA: Grimes +4 or +5 (user search)
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  KY SurveyUSA: Grimes +4 or +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: KY SurveyUSA: Grimes +4 or +5  (Read 1638 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: February 06, 2014, 09:01:09 PM »

This can't be! Sabato told me this was likely R! Just like Virginia which is only likely D despite Warner's 20 point lead.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2014, 01:41:49 PM »

This can't be! Sabato told me this was likely R! Just like Virginia which is only likely D despite Warner's 20 point lead.

Sabato rates them on probability of outcome, not on poll numbers.

So VA is just as likely to go R as KY is to go D?

I know poll numbers aren't everything. But every single poll so far has shown that assumption to be pretty asinine.
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