German Elections & Politics

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What's the holdup with München and Nürnberg ?

They are the Fairfax and Fulton Counties of Germany.
In earnest, the voter turnout seems to have been yuge.

I'm looking forward to the outcome in Söder's constituency, Nürnberg-West.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 73 out of 91 constituencies being counted; vote-tallying in Lower Bavaria and Upper Franconia has been completed.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

First Green direct seat in Nowitzki City (29.9% for Patrick Friedl - 29.2% for the CSU candidate)!
The total vote (both first and second votes are counted, unlike in federal elections), however, goes to the CSU in Würzburg (30.4% - 29.4%).

Intermediate results after 74 out of 91 constituencies being counted; vote-tallying in Lower Bavaria and Upper Franconia and Lower Franconia has been completed:

[seb_pard]

The results from constituencies near Nuremberg suggest in the city SDP (and not the CSU) will suffer a lot in favor of the Greens and the AfD equally but the results around Munich indicates a transfer from the 2 big parties mostly to the Greens (and much lower to the AfD).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 75 out of 91 constituencies being counted; vote-tallying in Lower Bavaria, Upper Franconia, Lower Franconia and Upper Palatinate has been completed:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 76 out of 91 constituencies being counted; vote-tallying in Swabia has been completed; only Middle Franconia and Upper Bavaria are missing:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

First Munich constituencies are in!

Intermediate results after 80 out of 91 constituencies being counted; one of the two Green top candidates, Katharina Schulze, has handily won her constituency in München-Milbertshofen (34.9% against 21.1% for the CSU candidate); also München-Giesing goes to the Green candidate (30.9% against 22.6% for the CSU candidate); unlike Würzburg, also the total vote (first + second) goes to the Greens in both constituencies:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 85 out of 91 constituencies being counted; also the other Green top candidate, Ludwig Hartmann, has won his constituency in München-Mitte in a landslide (44.0% against 16.3% for the CSU candidate); also München-Schwabing goes to the Green candidate (34.3% against 20.9% for the CSU candidate); the Greens also won the total votes in their four Munich districts.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

First Nuremberg results are in!

Intermediate results after 88 out of 91 constituencies being counted; Governor Markus Söder has handily won his constituency Nürnberg-Ost (38.1% against 21.8% for the Green candidate); some pundits predicted a Green win in Nürnberg-Nord, but eventually the CSU candidate has narrowly won (27.8% against 25.9%):

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Intermediate results after 89 out of 91 constituencies being counted; vote-tallying in Nuremberg has been completed; only München-Moosach and München-Land-Nord (a suburb of Munich) are still missing; FDP currently at 5.016%:

[FrancoAgo]

Completed
https://www.landtagswahl2018.bayern.de/index.html

the green take an other seat in Munich, so direct seat are 85 CSU and 6 greens

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Preliminary results





Voter turnout: 72.4% (+ 8.8%)

No official results regarding the allocation of seats as of yet.
ZDF is forecasting 192 seats, ARD even 204 seats.

first vote majority (= direct seats)	total vote majority (=first + secnond vote)	voter turnout

The Greens have won 6 direct seats:

• München-Mitte: 44.0% (top candidate Ludwig-Hartmann)
• München-Milbertshofen: 34.9% (top candidate Katharina Schulze)
• München-Schwabing: 34.3% (Christian Hierneis)
• München Giesing: 30.9% (Gülseren Demirel)
• München-Moosach: 26.2% (Benjamin Adjei)
• Würzburg: 29.9% (Patrick Friedl; total vote goes to the CSU though)

The only constituency that was won by the SPD five years ago - München-Milbertshofen - has gone to the Green candidate Katharina Schulze; her predecessor Ruth Waldmann only came third this time with 14.3% (- 19.5% !!!).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The official seat allocation has now been announced by the elections administrator, too. 25 additional seats!

[Oryxslayer]

So technically CSU-SPD is feasible...but CSU-FW seems more likely. 

[Tender Branson]

So, the SPD not only got more than halved, they also lost more than the CSU after all.

It was expected that the CSU would lose 15% and the SPD about 10-11%.

The SPD did, but the CSU did 4-5% better than thought yesterday.

The logical choice now would be to ask the Greens as election winners to form a coalition with them.

But I'm not sure if this works out, considering Söder will likely hang on.

So, CSU-FW seems to be the new coalition.

[DL]

It’s hard to imagine any basis for a coalition of the Greens and CSU. This is not Merkel’s CDU this is a MUCH more rightwing socially Conservative party that is the exact opposite of what the Greens stand for. Seems like a nobrainer that they would make a deal with FW who seem to be pretty small c conservative and have no national party to have to deal with.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

The CSU leadership committee today decided that Söder will remain Governor for another term and that Ilse Aigner will become President of the state parliament. The problematic case of Horst Seehofer was deferred to a later point.

Both the CSU and the FW have said today they favour a coalition with each other. Only a handful of points are about to be hotly debated between them in coalition talks, such as the 3rd runway on the Munich Airport, which the CSU supports and the FW (and the city of Munich, Greens and SPD as well btw) oppose. The CSU also opposes free pre-school, while the FW supports that. But on the other issues the CSU and FW have mostly the same positions.

[Tender Branson]

The maps:

Strongest party



Turnout:



Party shares:

[Tender Branson]

There are now actually districts where the former "People's Party" SPD has fallen to 4.6% of the vote ...

[jaichind]

Why are FW so strong in Bavaria?  Is it related to Bavarian regionalism ?

[Tender Branson]

Why are FW so strong in Bavaria?  Is it related to Bavarian regionalism ?

Regionalism and good work on the local level by their mayors etc. of course plays a role here. And they are seen as CSU-light and not as conservative. Besides, they have a popular leader since 12 years, Hubert Aiwanger, who has the Bavarian beer tent mentality and charisma that is needed for a good election result there:

[Tender Branson]

AfD-map:

The AfD results are highest on the Eastern border to the Czech Republic and in the North to the border of Thüringen, which are rural and structurally weak areas with low income and low purchasing power. They also suffer from population loss and a crystal meth epidemic.

That is quite different from the Austrian FPÖ, which also gets good results in well-off areas.

[jaichind]

Bavaria’s Christian Social Union party’s campaign strategy flopped. Here’s what this means for Germany — and Europe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/15/bavarias-christian-social-union-partys-campaign-strategy-flopped-heres-what-this-means-for-germany-and-europe/?utm_term=.2603635a5576

Has this guy looked at the 2017 Federal election results for Bavaria and compared them to last night

            2017        2018
CSU      38.8          37.2      -1.6
SPD      15.3           9,7       -5.6
Green     9.8         17.5      +7.7
FDP      10.2           5.1       -5.1
AfD       12.4         10.2      -2.2
FW         2.7         11.6      +8.9
Linke      6.1          3.2        -2.9
BP          0.8          2.1      +1.3
ÖDP       0.9           2.0      +1.1

CSU did reasonably well especially when FW was expected to do a lot better to grab Center-Right voters since in 2017 the 5% threshold meant the FW voter will vote tactically.  By the same logic Linke lost ground because the reverse logic relative to 2017 with respect to the 5% threshold.  SPD is the real loser here and you can argue FDP as well.  CSU strategy did not flop at all and in fact was an astounding success.

[republicanbayer]

https://twitter.com/sciencefiles/status/1051557856904966146

So the voting blocs didn't change at all from 40 years ago. Compared to the 2013 the conservative parties gained 25 seats while the left parties have the same amount of seats as before. While the CSU lost 3% to the Greens (much less than I expected), each CSU, FW and AfD gained 3% from non-voters, which seems to be the main reason for their strong performance.

Regarding the CSU: Yes, it's a disastrous result for a party that is used to winning majorities. But considering the circumstances, it could have been far worse. In fact, the CSU did better than most people expected and lost only 1% compared to last year while the CDU lost 6-7% nationwide. Just imagine what they could have achieved if Merkel hadn't fought Seehofer so hard on some meaningless stuff.

It's also pretty funny that many CDU politicians now say that the AfD is losing support and that the real opponent are the Greens. That's why they want to stop the "right-wing talk" and focus on the centre. Do they even realize why the AfD underperformed in Bavaria???

[Hydera]

https://twitter.com/sciencefiles/status/1051557856904966146

So the voting blocs didn't change at all from 40 years ago. Compared to the 2013 the conservative parties gained 25 seats while the left parties have the same amount of seats as before. While the CSU lost 3% to the Greens (much less than I expected), each CSU, FW and AfD gained 3% from non-voters, which seems to be the main reason for their strong performance.

Regarding the CSU: Yes, it's a disastrous result for a party that is used to winning majorities. But considering the circumstances, it could have been far worse. In fact, the CSU did better than most people expected and lost only 1% compared to last year while the CDU lost 6-7% nationwide. Just imagine what they could have achieved if Merkel hadn't fought Seehofer so hard on some meaningless stuff.

It's also pretty funny that many CDU politicians now say that the AfD is losing support and that the real opponent are the Greens. That's why they want to stop the "right-wing talk" and focus on the centre. Do they even realize why the AfD underperformed in Bavaria???

Its funnier how people are talking about a sort of Leftwing surge in Bavaria when SPD+Green+Linke actually dropped from 31.3% in 2013 to 30.3%.  One leftwing party cannibalizing another while the total drops by 1% is not a success.