German Elections & Politics

[jaichind]

In Saxony, if FDP falls below 5%, will CDU go for a CDU-AfD alliance or will we have the CDU-SPD just like everywhere else.

[jaichind]

In Saxony, if FDP falls below 5%, will CDU go for a CDU-AfD alliance or will we have the CDU-SPD just like everywhere else.

I assume CDU-SPD. AfD probably prefers to be outside for now.

The wiki page for this election has a summary of potential coalitions, in slightly broken English.

Make sense.  My understanding is that local CDU has not ruled it out yet.

[jaichind]

good for cdu, left & npd.

I would imagine it would also help AfD

[jaichind]

ARD projects CDU at 39%

[jaichind]

ARD: GERMAN SPD TAKES 12.5% IN SAXONY; LEFT PARTY 19%; AFD 10%

[jaichind]

ARD TELEVISION PROJECTIONS SHOW POSSIBLE CDU-SPD COALITION

[jaichind]

Looks like AfD, as expected, took some of the NPD vote.

[jaichind]

The blue color denotes a win by Christoph Schulze of the Vereinigte Bürgerbewegungen / Freie Wähler ("Citizens' Movement / Free Voters) in Teltow-Fläming III. He used to be a member of the SPD and a member of the Green faction (not the party). He has been a member of the Brandenburg Landtag since 1990.
This CD win by a minor results in a exemption of the 5% threshold for the BVB/FW, which gets 3 seats as a consequence.

Why does FW get an exemption from the 5% threshold?   I know that SSW in Schleswig-Holstein  get an exemption because of the Danish minority protection clause.  But what is the reason for FW here and how come they get such an exemption in Brandenburg.  And if so do they get the same exemption in other parts of Germany.

[jaichind]

Since it seems likely that AfD will cross 5% since it will likely under-poll.  I guess the make or break for SPD to form a majority government on its on is if FDP can make it past 5%.  I am hoping that it will pass 5% and make a somewhat of a comeback.

[jaichind]

Any link to results as they come in?

[jaichind]

*SPD 46.5%, MERKEL'S CDU 16% IN HAMBURG: ARD CITES EXIT POLLS
*ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY PROBABLY WINS SEATS IN HAMBURG: ARD
*FREE DEMOCRATS 7%, GREENS 12%, LEFT 8.5% IN HAMBURG: EXIT POLLS

[jaichind]

*ANTI-EURO ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY POLLING 5.5%, ARD SAYS

[jaichind]

Looks like SPD will miss absolute majority

[jaichind]

Interesting how exit poll FDP is doing better than pre-election surveys and AfD exit polls are not doing better than pre-election surveys like expected.

[jaichind]

55% vote participation vs. 57% in 2011

[jaichind]

Interesting how exit poll FDP is doing better than pre-election surveys and AfD exit polls are not doing better than pre-election surveys like expected.

Agreed. But I really thought that the CDU would do at least slightly better, however, they got absolutely destroyed.

Same here.  Looks like the CDU vote share went over to AfD and to some extent FDP.  SPD in that sense did well as I expected it to lose some votes to AfD but it looks like that did not take place.  Anyway the revival of the FDP plus the rise of AfD means that SPD will not have absolution majority.

[jaichind]

If these exit polls hold up then this is easily the worst ever results for CDU in Hamburg on top of the 2011 results which was the worst ever.

[jaichind]

No first "Hochrechnung" until 7:15-7:30 local time because of Hamburg's ridiculous 10 vote electoral system.

Please explain what that means ? Does this mean a vote has to be counted 10 times before they release that vote as counted ?

[jaichind]

The results shown in

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article137442106/Bei-dieser-Hamburg-Wahl-stehen-einige-Premieren-an.html

shows that Others are up 0.9% relative to 2011 which makes no sense if you add up the changes in other parties relative to 2011.  I looked into this and it seems in 2011 the Pirate Party was not part of Others but in 2015 it is.   So Others using 2015 definitions should really be down 1.2% and not up 0.9%

[jaichind]

Looks like SPD+Green+Left might not net that much on top of 2011 and might end up losing a bit.    Also both AfD and FDP is doing better than pre-election polls which is a surprise.  I would think one of the two will do better than pre-election polls but for both to do so is a surprise.

[jaichind]

Latest ZDF projections has FDP 7.4 and AfD at 6.1.  I always saw AfD being able to do well by cannibalizing FDP votes which is why I thought it was not possible for both to exceed pre-election polls.  Getting votes from CDU did not look likely to me giving how low they went in 2011 and that CDU is still riding high nationally.  Seems like that is what took place with FDP and AfD both gaining from CDU.   

[jaichind]

SPD      35.2
CDU     23
Green   15.5
FDP       6.5
AfD        5

[jaichind]

I wonder how BIW did

[jaichind]

By 2017 not even a black-green coalition may be possible. Guess more GroKo for Germany then...

Assuming both AfD and Linke are in, then there is no alternative to Grand Coalition again unless someone is willing to take Linke or AfD into the ruling alliance which for now seems unlikely.

[jaichind]

Looks like Germany is getting ready and learn how to "protest-vote" in the March state elections.

Merkel and Co. will see a huge middle-finger from the voters due to her reckless migrant policy ...

Not sure if the net impact will be that large.  Yes AfD will go up a lot but the net impact will be more Grand Coalitions between CDU and SPD.  Also 2011 tend to be a fairly bad year for CDU so not clear they will not lose that much votes relative to 2011.  Most likley AfD will gain more from SPD Greens Linke and Pirates relative to 2011.