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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655441 times)
republicanbayer
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« on: May 18, 2014, 07:09:21 AM »

FW are polling surprisingly weak in Bavaria. In the latest bavarian poll for the EP election they're only at 3%, which makes it almost impossible to win two seats.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2015, 03:12:16 PM »

Problems for Cameron then.

Which "wing" off AFD will stay in the ECR?! Or will they all leave?!

Frauke Petry said that she wants to stay in the ECR.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2015, 03:41:47 AM »

Problems for Cameron then.

Which "wing" off AFD will stay in the ECR?! Or will they all leave?!

Frauke Petry said that she wants to stay in the ECR.

Where will the ex-AfD MEPs go?
Just become independents? Hard really to see them in any of the other groups.

I guess they will stay in the ECR as well, but Hans-Olaf Henkel, Vice President of the ECR, suggested that von Storch and Pretzell should join Marine Le Pen's group.
Meanwhile former AfD leader Konrad Adam, who was a staunch supporter of Petry, has said that he is thinking about leaving the party.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2015, 05:11:38 PM »

So AFD is now entirely extreme right? Will they change any policies? Will it affect the opinion polls?

I think nothing will change in the short term, because the party leaders know they can't move the party further to the right without losing massive support. But considering how far right some of their members seem to be, it's possible that they will become a German version of FN in a few years.
Since Lucke will probably found a new party, AfD might lose 2-3% in the polls.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2015, 06:54:05 AM »

Jörn Kruse, chairman of the group in the parliament of Hamburg, wants to stay in the AfD even though he is a member of Bernd Lucke's "Weckruf". He said that he doesn't leave the party, because he wants to continue working with his group, which seems odd to me, because the most members of the AfD Hamburg support Frauke Petry.
In Bremen 3 of the 4 Members of Parliament left the AfD.
Thuringia's AfD group has always been split, so it's likely that the group will lose a few members.
The groups in Saxony and Brandenburg are lead by Petry respectively Gauland, so I guess there won't be any losses.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2015, 02:06:48 PM »

Former AfD leader Bernd Lucke and his followers have founded their own party.... the Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch, shortened ALFA.

I really like Lucke, but this party name is pretty stupid.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2017, 04:30:51 AM »

Nobody in the CDU appears to have the balls or brains to see that the party needs a fresh face. Merkel is spent. Why should voters opt for her in a new election? People know what she stands for and her program was soundly rejected the last time around (let's not forget that this was the CDU's second worst result ever). Is no one in that party able to cobble together an alliance that sees Merkel out the door? Jesus F'ing Christ, just get Spahn in there so he can pull a Kurz and you've got yourself a homo/metrosexual coalition (Spahn/Lindner) that will easily get a majority in the Bundestag.

Most voters don't know Spahn and while I like him personally, I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't be a good choice right now. Merkel is still popular. Some friends and family who voted FDP this time will go back to her in the snap elections. All people I know are upset about the failed talks and they blame Lindner for that. I think a large part of the voters just wants a government that leaves them alone for the next four years. And that's exactly what Merkel offers.

Furthermore she has agreed on restricting the number of asylum seekers to 200,000. At least that's what everyone thinks. CDU/CSU have stopped their fights and will probably get 36-39% in snap elections, which might be enough for a coalition with the Greens or FDP.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2018, 03:47:41 AM »

I wonder what will happen if this is the result of the Saxony election next fall:

AfD: 30%
CDU: 28%
Linke: 20%
Blaue: 6%
Grüne: 4.9%
SPD: 4.8%
FDP: 4.7%


In that - indeed realistic - scenario, the CDU would be forced to form a coalition with the Left.
(If those result come true, the AfD would become the only party represented in each state legislature.)

While it could happen that AfD and Linke get a majority next fall, it's completely unrealistic that "Die Blauen" will make it into the parliament. I don't even see them getting close to 1%. Frauke Petry is completely irrelevant. When Bernd Lucke left the party, the AfD crashed in the polls. After Petry left it, the AfD gained a few percent. And even Lucke's Party never came close to getting 1% in any election.
I don't get why the SPD wouldn't get above 5%. They're above 10% in every single poll but one - and that was an INSA poll. And don't forget that the Saxony CDU is the most conservative CDU state party in all of Germany. They have more in common with the CSU than with Günther, Laschet or even Merkel. I guess they'd rather have a minority government supported by the AfD than a coalition with Die Linke, because the latter would be pure suicide.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2018, 04:32:31 AM »

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

Schulze is the inofficial top candidate of their campaign, Hartmann was irrelevant for most of the campaign, but she is too young to become Minister President, which is why Hartmann had to debate Söder recently, and he would also become Minister President in the unlikely case of a rainbow coalition.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2018, 05:54:41 AM »

I just became aware of a problem concerning the Greens.
As they have two top candidates (which isn't an official position), which of them would become Minister President if they were to manage to form a four-party coalition following the example set by Wilhelm Hoegner? Katharina Schulze or Ludwig Hartmann?

Schulze is the inofficial top candidate of their campaign, Hartmann was irrelevant for most of the campaign, but she is too young to become Minister President, which is why Hartmann had to debate Söder recently, and he would also become Minister President in the unlikely case of a rainbow coalition.

Why would she be too young ?

She's 1 year older than Sebastian Kurz and he became Chancellor.

(or is there some age limit in Bayern to become Governor ?)

The Bavarian Constitution states in Article 44 that the Minister President must be a Bavarian who is at least 40 years old. So Schulze will be too young in 2023 as well. Of course, Kurz shows that age limits are absolutly ridiculous.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2018, 04:13:10 AM »

4.) Unlike in federal elections and most other state elections, the party lists aren't "closed", but "open"; i.e. you can give your second vote to a certain person on the candidates' list and therefore change the predefined order of the candidates. Only Bremen and Hamburg offer that option also.

I understand that candidates who run in constituencies and also region-wide for the second vote, they;

  • are not on the regional second-vote ballot in their constituency

No, no, quite the contrary. The region-wide party list even has to include all Stimmkreis candidates.


Nope, Polkergeist is right. Candidates who are on the first-vote ballot are not on the regional party list in their constituency. They're on the regional party list in every other constituency. That means that you have slightly different party lists in every constituency. If a certain party has e.g. 20 candidates on their list, only 19 of them will appear on every ballot, because the candidate running on the first-vote ballot is simply left out on the party list in his constituency.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2018, 04:22:09 AM »

Does this apply to independent candidates?

Independent candidates are not allowed in Bavarian state elections.
Only political parties and voters' associations can take part in those election, and they have to run a direct candidate in at least one Stimmkreis in an administrative region in order to be able to run a party list in that region.

Thank you for your answers, I appreciate it!

Are the Free Voters of Bavaria a party or a voter association?

Are there any other voter associations?

There are many voter associations running in municipal elections. Most of them are similar to the Freie Wähler. They're not so much about ideology, but more about the people running on their lists. Especially in rural areas people vote for candidates they know, not necessarily candidates they agree with on the issues and the voter associations help candidates who aren't politicians but want to run for local office.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kommunalwahlen_in_Bayern_2014
According to Wikipedia voter associations got 15.3% of the vote in the Bavarian municipal elections 2014, which seems pretty high to me, especially since Freie Wähler only got 3.9%. Maybe some Freie Wähler-lists ran as voter associations and not as the Freie Wähler party, idk.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2018, 04:29:26 AM »

4.) Unlike in federal elections and most other state elections, the party lists aren't "closed", but "open"; i.e. you can give your second vote to a certain person on the candidates' list and therefore change the predefined order of the candidates. Only Bremen and Hamburg offer that option also.

I understand that candidates who run in constituencies and also region-wide for the second vote, they;

  • are not on the regional second-vote ballot in their constituency

No, no, quite the contrary. The region-wide party list even has to include all Stimmkreis candidates.


Nope, Polkergeist is right. Candidates who are on the first-vote ballot are not on the regional party list in their constituency. They're on the regional party list in every other constituency. That means that you have slightly different party lists in every constituency. If a certain party has e.g. 20 candidates on their list, only 19 of them will appear on every ballot, because the candidate running on the first-vote ballot is simply left out on the party list in his constituency.

Okay, I relied on German Wikipedia. It says:
"Die Wahlkreisliste ist von einer Mitglieder- oder Vertreterversammlung der Partei oder Wählergruppe aufzustellen. Die Liste muss alle ihre Stimmkreisbewerber enthalten, die von Mitglieder- oder Vertreterversammlungen in den jeweiligen Stimmkreisen gewählt worden sind."

However, its explanation si also a bit internally inconsistent:
"Die Aufstellungsversammlung kann auf Wahlkreisebene weitere Bewerber wählen. Die Liste darf höchstens so viele Bewerber enthalten, wie im Wahlkreis Sitze zu vergeben sind. Jede Liste muss mindestens einen Stimmkreisbewerber enthalten. Die Aufstellungsversammlung kann, muss aber nicht die Reihenfolge der Kandidaten bestimmen."

Yeah, the election system is a bit of a mess. We also have elections for the Bezirkstag today, the seven parliaments of the Bavarian regions and I have no clue what they're good for (FDP wants to abolish them) and how to vote in that election.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2018, 04:57:45 AM »

There are many voter associations running in municipal elections. Most of them are similar to the Freie Wähler. They're not so much about ideology, but more about the people running on their lists. Especially in rural areas people vote for candidates they know, not necessarily candidates they agree with on the issues and the voter associations help candidates who aren't politicians but want to run for local office.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kommunalwahlen_in_Bayern_2014
According to Wikipedia voter associations got 15.3% of the vote in the Bavarian municipal elections 2014, which seems pretty high to me, especially since Freie Wähler only got 3.9%. Maybe some Freie Wähler-lists ran as voter associations and not as the Freie Wähler party, idk.

I read the Wikipedia article about the Free Voters and it's quite complicated.
If I understood it correctly, Freie Wähler is a party, but there is also a federal umbrella association called Bundesverband Freie Wähler Deutschland, in which several voters' associations from throughout Germany are organized. Hubert Aiwanger is the chairman of both organizations in personal union. They arranged among one another that the voters' associations run at the community level and the party at state, federal and European level.

That makes sense.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2018, 10:13:12 AM »

@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

My educated guess:

CSU (supposedly conservative):    35 %
SPD (socialdemocratic):                 9 %
Greens (socialist-ecologic):           16 %
Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 %
AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 %
Bavarian Party (Secessionist):         6 %

Under the 5-%-threshold:
FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 %
The Left (socialist):                                  4.0 %
Other:                                                    2.5 %    

Sorry, that's just ridiculous. The Bavarian Party won't get anywhere close to 5%. They're around for years, many voters know them, like them and would even vote for them, but no one acutally does. 2% would be a good result for them, but everything about 3% is just not realistic. 
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2018, 10:18:35 AM »

Any explanation for the strong Green surge? They probably took a lot of support from the FDP and SPD, but why exactly are they the ones surging so much?

Basically, there are 2 groups from where the Greens are getting new support:
- SPD eletorate from affluent urban and especially suburban voters. These voters voted against the coalition and are now leaving in droves. Unlike in Northern and Western Germany, the BavarianSPD has had their only strongholds in big cities like Munich, Nuremberg and Augsburg. Until 2000 they had a rural presence in northern upper Franconia with socially conservative voters.
- The CSU is losing their grip on conservatives. They are leaving (Refugees Welcome!)towards the FW and especially the AfD. The CSU rather is a Big-Tent-Party with conservative appearance. If you are a young bavarian you have to be a member or affiliated to the CSU for your own professional carreer due to the momentary total dominance of the CSU in Society, even if you sympathize with Greens/SPD. Now that the CSU seems to be done for, These socialized center-left CSU members and voters are leaving as they see an opportunity of getting rid of their innatural bonds.

I don't know where you're getting your information from, but as a young Bavarian myself this is just plain wrong. Bavaria isn't China where you have to be a member of the party in order to advance your career. It's totally irrelevant whether you're a member of the CSU, SPD or not a party member at all. Politics doesn't matter in your personal or professional life, so I don't know why you're saying such things.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2018, 10:34:04 AM »

I voted CSU today, mainly for two reasons. 1) They're doing a good job running Bavaria, at least compared to the other 15 states. 2) The way the media treated the CSU and especially Seehofer over the last few months was just disgraceful. That he's been painted as a threat to our democracy is a shame.
But of course, the CSU will suffer a brutal loss. While they managed to win back some AfD-Voters (no one is mentioning how bad they're performing, compared to the national polls), they lost twice as much voters to the Greens. Another reason for the bad result for the CSU is that due to the success of our economy and universities many people, who weren't born here, live in Bavaria. They have no connection to the CSU and quickly jumped the ship with all the bad press the CSU is getting.

I'm pretty sure Söder will survive the election as long as the CSU gets  above 32%. He fought 10 years to get this job and won't give it up after 10 months. Seehofer on the other hand will probably have to resign as party leader. I guess Dobrindt is the most likely choice as his successor. If Seehofer has to resign as Interior Minister as well, I'm pretty sure he will try to take Merkel down with him.

Another interesting fact is that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Volker Bouffier have criticized the CSU in the last few days. I don't think that it will make any difference, but still shows how bad the relationship of CDU and CSU is.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2018, 10:38:37 AM »


I don't know where you're getting your information from, but as a young Bavarian myself this is just plain wrong. Bavaria isn't China where you have to be a member of the party in order to advance your career. It's totally irrelevant whether you're a member of the CSU, SPD or not a party member at all. Politics doesn't matter in your personal or professional life, so I don't know why you're saying such things.


… says someone who identifies as a conservative. Then show me please the vast majority number of SPD/Green/FDP/AfD-members running the municipalities.
The straw man argument (Bavaria is not China TM) does not lead anywhere. If the municipal branches of the CSU did not support the ;-) conservative movement of "Refugees Welcome" ;-) this programme would simply not have been applied in Bavaria (the same as in whole Germany).

Thus there is even in Bavaria a support of pro-Immigratation policies despite the opposite utterered by Seehofer and Soeder!

Well, I'm a conservative, but I'm not a member of the CSU. In fact, today was the first time I've voted for the CSU all my life. I agree with you, when it comes to a political career, it's easier to win as a CSU candidate. But it's also harder to get the nomination, because the CSU has by far the most members. And again, if you're not running for some office, your party affiliation is simpy irrelevant.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2018, 10:44:15 AM »

Good choice. But how is the CSU losing many votes to the Greens? I don't get this. AfD is gaining even more voters than CSU is losing in most polls. Seems logical that the voter movements are CSU -> AfD and SPD -> Green.

I might be wrong and I have no numbers to back this up, I just think that the AfD will not gain compared to their result in Bavaria last year while they gained ~5% nationwide. The Greens meanwhile have significantly increased their numbers, so my guess is that Seehofer's attempts to fix the immigration mess have brought back some conservatives (like me, I voted FDP last year) at the cost of losing many voters who support Merkel and vote for a pro-immigration party like the Greens.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2018, 12:31:19 PM »

Bad result for the CSU, obviously, but at least better than expected. Söder will definitely remain Minister President. The Seehofer-Merkel fight hurt them a lot, losing voters to AfD, Greens and FW. They're currently at 80 seats, which is surprisingly low since there are 91 districts and I don't see how 11 of them are won by another party.
I hope that the Greens are riding on a wave similar to 2011. The fundamentals haven't really shifted in their favour and i could see them declining as soon as the government stops messing up everything, whenever that is. Of course, the media hype and the environmentalism among Bavarians helps them a lot.
AfD has underperformed significantly. I think many potential voters preferred CSU or FW, which shows that you can keep that party small, if you don't consider 20% of the people Nazis.
The SPD has become a joke, criticizing the failed Jamaica negotiations and the CDU-CSU fights for their bad result, among other things.

A new government must be formed within the next 4 weeks. CSU-FW is the most likely option. While it would be good for Bavaria, the Freien Wähler would be a loss for the opposition. Hubert Aiwanger has always been a champion of the people and the only serious opposition to the CSU. I fear that they will suffer the typical junior partner fate and lose heavily in the next election.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2018, 12:37:10 PM »

Bad result for the CSU, obviously, but at least better than expected. Söder will definitely remain Minister President. The Seehofer-Merkel fight hurt them a lot, losing voters to AfD, Greens and FW. They're currently at 80 seats, which is surprisingly low since there are 91 districts and I don't see how 11 of them are won by another party.
I hope that the Greens are riding on a wave similar to 2011. The fundamentals haven't really shifted in their favour and i could see them declining as soon as the government stops messing up everything, whenever that is. Of course, the media hype and the environmentalism among Bavarians helps them a lot.
AfD has underperformed significantly. I think many potential voters preferred CSU or FW, which shows that you can keep that party small, if you don't consider 20% of the people Nazis.
The SPD has become a joke, criticizing the failed Jamaica negotiations and the CDU-CSU fights for their bad result, among other things.

A new government must be formed within the next 4 weeks. CSU-FW is the most likely option. While it would be good for Bavaria, the Freien Wähler would be a loss for the opposition. Hubert Aiwanger has always been a champion of the people and the only serious opposition to the CSU. I fear that they will suffer the typical junior partner fate and lose heavily in the next election.

I heard this as well. What happens if this isn't successful? New elections?
Yes.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2018, 01:11:03 PM »


Pretty big improvement for the CSU. 37% would be a "good" result for them. Makes all the 33% polls that pushed the "CSU support is collapsing" narrative even more questionable.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2018, 01:14:21 PM »

Usually the Greens overperform in the polls. My modell conssisted of correlating pre-election polling and end-result in similar center-right electorates thus my over-assessment of "other"-Parties. From my overestimate of "Other" combined with a strong social media presence of the BP I deduced my results.

You know that social media presence usually doesn't translate into actual voters?


Yes, but I had to assign my "Other"-votes to small parties without mass media representation. And the BP with an extraordinary presence was quite tempting ;-)

But let's wait the rest of counting the votes. To quote a real genius regarding power: ""It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes.""


Of course, your model is right, but a huge anti-Bayernpartei conspiracy among the vote counters is to blame for the fact that the BP won't get 6%. Btw, both Die Partei and the Pirates both have more follower on social media than the BP.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2018, 02:44:27 PM »

This is shaping up to be an absolutely amazing result: CSU further ahead of the Union nationally than in 2013. Seehofer should be safe, all talk about CSU's rightward turn on immigration being a wrong decision will hopefully stop which should strengthen the CSU right's position both in Berlin and in Munich, a CSU-FW coalition can be formed, the SPD has been decimated, and the left gained zilch. Bavaria and Austria never disappoint.

I more or less agree, but the German media paints a totally different picture. Seehofer has to resign, the CSU paid the price for being so right-wing, Söder is "outrageously lucky" (SZ) and the Greens prove that people love open borders. Left-wing journalists attacked the CSU for months and they will certainly not stop now.
I hope Seehofer stays. He hasn't accomplished anything, but when he said "we got it" after last year's election, he really got it.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2018, 12:11:42 PM »



So the voting blocs didn't change at all from 40 years ago. Compared to the 2013 the conservative parties gained 25 seats while the left parties have the same amount of seats as before. While the CSU lost 3% to the Greens (much less than I expected), each CSU, FW and AfD gained 3% from non-voters, which seems to be the main reason for their strong performance.

Regarding the CSU: Yes, it's a disastrous result for a party that is used to winning majorities. But considering the circumstances, it could have been far worse. In fact, the CSU did better than most people expected and lost only 1% compared to last year while the CDU lost 6-7% nationwide. Just imagine what they could have achieved if Merkel hadn't fought Seehofer so hard on some meaningless stuff.

It's also pretty funny that many CDU politicians now say that the AfD is losing support and that the real opponent are the Greens. That's why they want to stop the "right-wing talk" and focus on the centre. Do they even realize why the AfD underperformed in Bavaria???
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