Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

[Flying Dog]

Kaine

[MHS2002]

http://www.roanoke.com//politics%5C30379.html

Sounds like Kaine will do back-to-back debates with Kilgore and then Potts on the same day.

Also, this page:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/VA_Gov_05.html

is a good place to look for the latest headlines on the race. The authors of the site have a Republican bias, but the page above is a good source nonetheless.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Kilgore lashed out at illegal immigrants yesterday, opposing a bid to create a gathering area for day laborers in Herndon, which has had a huge influx of immigrants and id suffering from gang violence.  He had earlier proposed to police that when illegals commit a crime, they should be deported.  I won't be voting for Kilgore, but I like what he did here.

Illegal immigrantion is becoming an increasingly important factor in the Viriginia election this year.

I posted an article on the Gubernatorial elections thread about an illegal immigrant attacking a 15 year old girl.

Made big news in Virginia.

Barring some major turnaround, it looks like Kilgore gets elected.

[MHS2002]

Kilgore lashed out at illegal immigrants yesterday, opposing a bid to create a gathering area for day laborers in Herndon, which has had a huge influx of immigrants and id suffering from gang violence.  He had earlier proposed to police that when illegals commit a crime, they should be deported.  I won't be voting for Kilgore, but I like what he did here.

Illegal immigrantion is becoming an increasingly important factor in the Viriginia election this year.

I posted an article on the Gubernatorial elections thread about an illegal immigrant attacking a 15 year old girl.

Made big news in Virginia.

Barring some major turnaround, it looks like Kilgore gets elected.

You are right about illegal immigration being a big factor this year Carl. By the end of the campaign, may very well be the single largest factor.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Just one more publicized crime by illegal aliens in Virginia will put this election out of reach for Kaine.

[Moooooo]

Kaine launched some new TV ad's today.  Check them out here... http://www.kaine2005.org/media/tv/kl38462.php

[Frodo]

Latest poll, Kilgore leads 48-43-3.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0d9694a4-37cd-4431-93e1-48ec1ae41681

Note this poll actually oversampled Democrats, but Kilgore leads among "moderates" (35-34) and is only down 2 amongst those that "never' attend church (!!). ouch. [though that is Potts' strength, if you can all 5% a strength] Kilgore also leads in all age groups except 50-64.

If those numbers are close to correct, Kilgore will easily win. Both candidates are holding their bases but there are more Republicans.

This election is a wash -it will depend ultimately on two factors, the balance of which in the mind of Virginia voters will affect who becomes the next governor of Virginia:

1. The tax increases advocated by Gov. Mark Warner and passed by the Republican-dominated legislature (especially with the help of the state Senate) on sales and income to increase funding for education, health care, and public safety (among other popular programs), which have proved surprisingly popular (or at least acceptable) to a majority of Virginians, and which have not adversely affected Warner's approval ratings.

-or-

2. The skyrocketing property tax assessment rates especially in Northern Virginia, combined with high gas prices (therefore making any chance of a gas tax increase to fund transportation projects next to impossible), both of which Kilgore could use to his advantage and reawaken the traditonally strong anti-tax sentiment that had long propelled his party to eventually capture the both houses of the General Assembly, and subsequently dominate Virginia beginning in the late 1990s.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Either way, taxes and high gas prices will be the singularly most important factors that will determine who will become the next governor of Virginia.  Illegal immigration -and by extension, gang violence among younger Latinos- while an important issue in the outlying suburbs of Northern Virginia, will not be that big of an issue throughout the rest of the state compared to the issues I have already enumerated.

[Ben.]

As I keep saying Kaine will get a ‘second wind’ towards the end of the campaign.

At the moment the ‘Warner Republicans’, mostly conservative, rural voters in the panhandle and the west of the state are polling, as supporting the candidate with the R next to their name, this is not the same as supporting Kilgore. Towards the end of the campaign the personalities of the candidates are likely to come into play and this should provide Kaine a “Warner Democrat” with a second wind… I don’t know if it’ll be enough to secure a win though, but I’d be surprised if we didn’t see it happen.         

[CARLHAYDEN]

Kaine is no Warner.  Warner supports the Right to Keep and Bear Arms while Kaine is trying to hide his record of opposing that right.

Kilgore duels Kaine in hunt for sportsmen
Republican candidate for governor unveils a rival pro-gun group

BY REX BOWMAN
TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER Aug 31, 2005


VINTON -- A shootout for gun owners' votes escalated yesterday when Republican gubernatorial candidate Jerry W. Kilgore announced the creation of a "Sportsmen for Kilgore" coalition that will counter a similar group working for his Democratic rival

At a Vinton lodge just off the Blue Ridge Parkway, Kilgore's campaign further emphasized the purpose of the Kilgore coalition by announcing that its chairman is an NRA executive.

"Jerry's values are ours, they're genuine and consistent," said Chuck Cunningham, the National Rifle Association's director of federal affairs and the chairman of Sportsmen for Kilgore. "He's the one you can trust."

The effort by the Kilgore campaign to paint Kaine as an enemy of the Second Amendment and Kaine's effort to distance himself from gun-control rhetoric uttered while he was mayor of Richmond.

One of those claiming membership in Sportsmen for Kilgore is Sherry Crumley, chairwoman of the Department of Game and Inland Fisheries Board who four years ago headed Sportsmen for Mark Warner during the Democrat's successful run for the governorship.

Yesterday, Crumley said she thinks both Kaine and Kilgore are fine gentlemen, but she shares Kilgore's views on the Second Amendment. Additionally, she said, she and Kilgore share Southwest Virginia roots. She grew up in Bristol.

"I'm not a party person, I'm a single-issue voter," she said, noting that she is also a member of Sportsmen for Creigh Deeds. R. Creigh Deeds, running for attorney general, is a Democratic state senator from Bath County.

[MHS2002]

Latest poll, Kilgore leads 48-43-3.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0d9694a4-37cd-4431-93e1-48ec1ae41681

Note this poll actually oversampled Democrats, but Kilgore leads among "moderates" (35-34) and is only down 2 amongst those that "never' attend church (!!). ouch. [though that is Potts' strength, if you can all 5% a strength] Kilgore also leads in all age groups except 50-64.

If those numbers are close to correct, Kilgore will easily win. Both candidates are holding their bases but there are more Republicans.

This election is a wash -it will depend ultimately on two factors, the balance of which in the mind of Virginia voters will affect who becomes the next governor of Virginia:

1. The tax increases advocated by Gov. Mark Warner and passed by the Republican-dominated legislature (especially with the help of the state Senate) on sales and income to increase funding for education, health care, and public safety (among other popular programs), which have proved surprisingly popular (or at least acceptable) to a majority of Virginians, and which have not adversely affected Warner's approval ratings.

-or-

2. The skyrocketing property tax assessment rates especially in Northern Virginia, combined with high gas prices (therefore making any chance of a gas tax increase to fund transportation projects next to impossible), both of which Kilgore could use to his advantage and reawaken the traditonally strong anti-tax sentiment that had long propelled his party to eventually capture the both houses of the General Assembly, and subsequently dominate Virginia beginning in the late 1990s.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Either way, taxes and high gas prices will be the singularly most important factors that will determine who will become the next governor of Virginia.  Illegal immigration -and by extension, gang violence among younger Latinos- while an important issue in the outlying suburbs of Northern Virginia, will not be that big of an issue throughout the rest of the state compared to the issues I have already enumerated.

In addition to the issues you talk about Frodo, transportation may become a factor in the Northern Virginia area. I'm a little surprised there hasn't been more coverage on this issue actually.

[Sam Spade]

New Washington Post poll on the VA Gov. Race:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/10/AR2005091001115.html

Among RV:  Kilgore 45%, Kaine 41%, Potts 5%
Among LV:  Kilgore 51%, Kaine 44% (they say this is the result, but they don't give numbers)

Various approval ratings:
M. Warner 69%
Allen 58%
Bush 47%

I don't know the Washington's Post state poll record, though logic says they should be able to poll Virginia decently (I would think) and this result is not particularly out-of-line with other results I've seen.

[Moooooo]

Damn Sam, you beat me to it.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd be much happier if it were Kaine who was leading Kilgore 51-44. I'm hoping the gap narrows and Kaine's still in with a shout. Will Virginia stick with it's recent tradition of electing governors from the non-presidential party? For now, it doesn't look like it

I've heard that Warner is receiving criticism from some for not doing enough to support Kaine but I don't know how true that is

Dave

[Moooooo]

I've heard that Warner is receiving criticism from some for not doing enough to support Kaine but I don't know how true that is

From what Ive heard Kaines main problem is his lack of ideas.  His entire campaign has been centered around his relationship with Governor Warner.  He hasnt introduced any of his own ideas.  Its not a bad idea to link yourself to a highly successful Governor, but voters arent stupid and they want to hear what Kaine is going to do.  Not what Governor Warner has done.

[Democratic Hawk]

I've heard that Warner is receiving criticism from some for not doing enough to support Kaine but I don't know how true that is

From what Ive heard Kaines main problem is his lack of ideas.  His entire campaign has been centered around his relationship with Governor Warner.  He hasnt introduced any of his own ideas.  Its not a bad idea to link yourself to a highly successful Governor, but voters arent stupid and they want to hear what Kaine is going to do.  Not what Governor Warner has done.

Fair comment. I think it's just unfortunate for Democrats that Warner can't run again this year. He'd coast home

Dave

[AuH2O]

Whatever. Kaine is totally doneski.

[Democratic Hawk]

Whatever. Kaine is totally doneski.

OK, then Kilgore wins .... He goes on to make a complete utter arse of things .... and then a Democrat is elected in 2009 .... and then proceeds to clean his mess up ....

Signed: Partisan Democratic hack

[Moooooo]

I think it's just unfortunate for Democrats that Warner can't run again this year. He'd coast home

Indeed.

[Moooooo]

OK, then Kilgore wins .... He goes on to make a complete utter arse of things .... and then a Democrat is elected in 2009 .... and then proceeds to clean his mess up ....

Signed: Partisan Democratic hack

Thata' boy. 

[TheresNoMoney]

Warner has just recently started campaigning for Kaine. This race is far from over.

The first televised debate is tomorrow night.

[Moooooo]

Warner has just recently started campaigning for Kaine. This race is far from over.

The first televised debate is tomorrow night.

It will probably be another question and answer session.  My first impression was Kaine would smoke Kilgore in the debates.  However, Kilgore supposedly 'won' the first one.

[AuH2O]

Maybe Democrats should wake up and realize Kaine sucks. Warner wanted him to be the Lt. Gov. nominee to help in Richmond, that's all.

[Moooooo]

Maybe Democrats should wake up and realize Kaine sucks. Warner wanted him to be the Lt. Gov. nominee to help in Richmond, that's all.

I dont really care for him one way or the other, but Id obviously like to see him win because a loss is a black mark on Warners legacy.

Oh, and, Kilgore isnt exactly a beacon of light.

[Ben.]

Both Kaine and Kilgore are uninspiring candidates, Kaine should be doing well because of his links to a successful and very popular outgoing incumbent and his success in Richmond, Kilgore should be doing better as he’s the GOP candidate for Governor in VA, facing a lacklusta Democratic campaign! That simple… neither are really stepping up to the plate on this one

Naturally I’d favour Kaine, but on top of my partisan attachment to him he seems like a decent enough well meaning sorta guy who’d be good for Virginia, Kilgore seems like a fundamentally weak potential governor. Who if anything could pose a serious threat to the positive legacy left by Warner.           

[Moooooo]

Anyone catch the debates last night?  Apparently Kaine and Tim Russert (moderator) teamed up to embarrass Kilgore.  Here is a couple snip's from the Washington Post article.


Kaine was aggressive in challenging the men he referred to as his two Republican opponents. He called Kilgore "mean-spirited" and repeatedly accused him of wanting to turn back progress made under Gov. Mark R. Warner (D).

"Jerry Kilgore has fought against every reform that Mark Warner and I have worked on in the last three years," Kaine said
----

During the first debate, Kilgore said Kaine is a "liberal" whose main goal would be to raise taxes while doing nothing to improve transportation in Northern Virginia.

"Just admit it, Tim," Kilgore said in one of many personal exchanges between the two men. "You raised taxes. He's afraid to say to Virginians that he raised taxes."
----

But Kilgore faltered under a series of questions by moderator Tim Russert, host of NBC's Meet the Press. Asked by Russert whether he would sign a bill to outlaw abortion if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade , Kilgore refused to answer, calling the question hypothetical.

Russert, who thrills in catching national politicians in contradictions on his Sunday morning show, followed up quickly by asking whether Kilgore would veto a tax increase. Kilgore fell for the trick question, saying he would.

"That's a hypothetical question!" Russert said, prompting laughter from the luncheon crowd of more than 500 Northern Virginia business executives in the ballroom of the Hilton McLean Tysons Corner.

"Kilgore was nervous and tense. He sounded bad. He argued badly," said University of Virginia politics professor Larry Sabato, who is scheduled to moderate a debate Oct. 9. "This was Kaine's best performance ever."