Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

[MHS2002]

So far no candidate in the VA gubernatorial race is very inspiring, to be honest. Kilgore's campaign hasn't really taken off, and Kaine is just sort of, bleh. One thing I have begun to notice is that Potts, instead of burning his bridges with the Republican party, has just decided to outright napalm them. The way he's been acting, he could very well take more votes away from Kaine than Kilgore.

Oh, and the first gubernatorial debate is this week. I don't know if it will be on TV or radio yet, but if it is I'll try and catch a bit of it.

[King]

I'd vote for Potts now:

"State Senator Russ Potts (Independent) may serve as a Republican in the State Senate, but he's definitely positioning himself as the most liberal candidate in the gubernatorial contest. First he told the AP on Friday that he unequivocally supported allowing gays to adopt children. Now he's weighing in as the most liberal candidate on abortion, too."

[Q]

King's quote as well as the following come from Politics1:

Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine (D) said he generally supports a women's right of choice, but added he supports adding "reasonable restrictions" on abortion. Potts, however, says he is uncompromisingly pro-choice and knows what he would do if anti-Roe legislation is presented to him: "I would veto it. It would cause chaos in this country if [Roe] is overturned." Potts views himself as a Theodore Roosevelt-style Republican.[/b]

The more I read about Kaine, the less I like him, and the more I read about Potts, the more I like him.  Kaine seems like a panderer.  Being conservative like Kilgore won't help him win.  If there is no discernible difference between the two 'K' candidates, the Republican will win in this state.

[AuH2O]

Potts running hard to the left... lol, hilarious. Democrats think a 3rd party will again deliver them to victories they otherwise would not have, but then it backfires! Bigtime. And I bet a lot of Democrats helped Potts get on the ballot, too. Oops.

Kilgore should win this easily.

[Jake]

I'm a Kaine fan myself. Just watching this race with silent laughter though. I really hope Potts debates, if only for the soundbites.

[Moooooo]

Is Kilgore still refusing to debate?  I can't blame him if he is.  He's going to get whipped like a red headed step child.

[AuH2O]

Debates are scheduled. Read the thread.

[Moooooo]

Debates are scheduled. Read the thread.

Great news.  Should give Kaine a solid bounce.

[TheresNoMoney]

Potts seems like a good guy. It's always fun to hear a politician speak the truth when he has nothing to lose.

Still hoping Kaine squeeks this one out, but he really needs to whoop Kilgore in the debates.

BTW, is Potts taking part in the debates?

[Moooooo]

BTW, is Potts taking part in the debates?

Not if Kilgore has a say...  Look back a couple of posts MHS posted some nice info regarding the debates.

[Keystone Phil]

BTW, is Potts taking part in the debates?

Not if Kilgore has a say...  Look back a couple of posts MHS posted some nice info regarding the debates.

Word is that Potts is running as the most liberal candidate in the race. Wouldn't that take more support away from Kaine?

[Sam Spade]

BTW, is Potts taking part in the debates?

Not if Kilgore has a say...  Look back a couple of posts MHS posted some nice info regarding the debates.

Word is that Potts is running as the most liberal candidate in the race. Wouldn't that take more support away from Kaine?

What I would need to see are some recent polls telling me where the base of Potts vote is coming from.

If Potts is truly taking votes away from those who might lean socially towards the left, it might force Kaine to push his campaign in that direction.

Kaine needs those social liberals to be solidly behind him in Virginia in order to win, that is obvious.

[MHS2002]

If Potts continues to campaign the way he is now (coming out with some harsh words against Kilgore, pro-gay adoptions, pro-choice, etc.), he will end up taking more votes away from Kaine. Also, I wouldn't expect Potts to get much support from people who normally vote Republican at this point, because I can't think of one good thing he's had to say about the VA Republican party since last year.

On a related note, It's really hard for me to tell exactly how much recognition Potts has in other parts of the state. Since I'm in his district, he makes all the headlines in the local papers, but I'm not sure how well known he is throughout the rest of Virginia. Can any of the other VA people chime in?

[MHS2002]

New Rassmussen Poll:

Kilgore 47, Kaine 41, Other 4

Link

[King]

If Potts liberal message gets out in the mainstream, he could get 10% and screw Kaine over.

[MHS2002]

Here's another fundraising update...with just over 400 grand in cash, I don't think Potts will get his message out anywhere at this rate.

Also, the Kilgore-Kaine debate tomorrow will not be televised and will be held in West Virginia. No, I don't get it either.

Link to Article
Kilgore Whittles Away at Kaine's Fundraising Lead

By Chris L. Jenkins
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, July 14, 2005; Page B05

RICHMOND, July 13 -- Republican gubernatorial candidate Jerry W. Kilgore raised $2.1 million last month, more than twice the amount raised by his opponent Timothy M. Kaine, and cut into the Democrat's financial lead.

Kilgore's campaign said the former attorney general's haul last month -- nudged in part by early returns from a Fairfax County fundraiser next week that will be attended by President Bush -- means that the candidate's effort is gaining energy. Kilgore has raised $10.8 million.
   

"We feel the campaign has been running strongly for a long time now," said Tim Murtaugh, Kilgore's press secretary. "The candidate . . . continues to build momentum."

Kaine, the lieutenant governor, raised a little more than $1 million, the campaign reported, bringing his total to nearly $11.1 million. At the beginning of the reporting period, Kaine led Kilgore by about $1.3 million.

Delacey Skinner, Kaine's press secretary, said the campaign is not worried about the fundraising totals from last month. "The way we measure our success is, 'Do you have enough money to do what you set out to do in your budget?' " she said. "We've kept pace with, and at times exceeded, our goals. That's what you need to do."

Skinner said Kilgore's contested primary last month with Warrenton Mayor George B. Fitch, which Kilgore won easily, might have given him a boost in attention that probably led to higher contributions. Kaine did not have a primary challenger. Skinner called the Bush event a one-time boost to the Republican's coffers.

"We expected them to bring in quite a bit of money from this Bush fundraiser," she said. Kaine raised more than $1 million in May at an event headlined by Gov. Mark R. Warner (D).

Although Kilgore bested Kaine last month, the Republican trails his opponent in cash on hand. Kaine will report about $5 million in cash, while Kilgore has $4.6 million on hand.

Mike McCall, the press secretary for state Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr. (R-Winchester), the race's independent candidate, said the campaign will release fundraising tallies Friday, when they are due. As of June 1, Potts reported raising about $425,000.

The race between the two major-party candidates has attracted national attention. Virginia and New Jersey are the only states with gubernatorial elections this year, and both parties have made the commonwealth a priority.

So far, the two candidates have made full use of their national bases. Kaine received a pledge of $5 million from national Democrats several months ago. Ken Mehlman, the National Republican Committee chairman, has campaigned twice for Kilgore in the past six weeks.

The two candidates are on their way to record-breaking fundraising. Kilgore has raised almost as much as the 2001 GOP gubernatorial candidate, Mark L. Earley, who finished with $11 million. Kaine, with $5 million on hand, has more money than Warner did at this point in 2001.

As the Virginia race slogs through the summer months -- a traditionally dry spell for fundraising -- Kilgore and Kaine hope to use national political luminaries to keep the money coming at energetic levels. Bush will raise money for Kilgore next week, and Kaine has scheduled an event for July 20 at the Clarendon Ballroom in Arlington that will feature U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), who is considered one of the national party's rising stars and often attracts large audiences.

[Moooooo]

Also, the Kilgore-Kaine debate tomorrow

Hopefully Kaine can pick up some steam from the debates.

[MHS2002]

Also, the Kilgore-Kaine debate tomorrow

Hopefully Kaine can pick up some steam from the debates.

Might not matter if no one can see the debate.

[Moooooo]

Might not matter if no one can see the debate.

Who was the genius who decided to hold the debates in WV?

[WalterMitty]

Might not matter if no one can see the debate.

Who was the genius who decided to hold the debates in WV?

if i remember correctly, one of the 2001 debates was held in wv also.

[MHS2002]

Might not matter if no one can see the debate.

Who was the genius who decided to hold the debates in WV?

Don't know...Also, I read in a newspaper article that the second debate between Kilgore and Kaine will not be televised either.

[A18]

When's the debate?

[MHS2002]

When's the debate?

First one is today. Not sure what time.

[Sam Spade]

When's the debate?

First one is today. Not sure what time.

From the Richmond Times-Dispatch (i'm not really into posting more papers, you can read them as you want to).  Only analysis I've seen was from Larry Sabato, who is ok (I guess) as political analyst.  He said the Kilgore had the edge over Kaine in the debate, but that the bar was not set very high, because the debate structure was flawed.  He said, "When they (the candidates) set the rules, it’s the equivalent of letting the inmates run the asylum. They duck the questions and they set their own agenda."

http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD%2FMGArticle%2FRTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031783887404&path=%21news&s=1045855934842

WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va. -- Gubernatorial foes Timothy M. Kaine and Jerry W. Kilgore clashed sharply on abortion, the death penalty and state spending yesterday, facing off in a debate that focused on the tax-raising legacy of Gov. Mark R. Warner.

Kilgore, a Republican and a former attorney general, showed an aggressiveness absent in earlier encounters. He depicted Kaine, a Democrat and the state's lieutenant governor, as open to higher taxes. Kilgore suggested that Kaine would revoke the death sentences of condemned killers. Kaine cites his Catholic faith in opposing capital punishment but has vowed not to block executions.
   
Kaine promised he would follow the lead of governors, Republican and Democratic, in using clemency powers narrowly, if at all. "I'm not going to apologize to you because of my religious belief that life is sacred," he said.

He was generally at ease but seemingly more subdued than in two previous debates with Kilgore.

Kaine branded his rival as anti-progress for opposing the broadly supported tax increase won by Warner in 2004. The increase was to shore up cash-strapped state services and save Virginia's highest possible credit rating. Kaine added that eight years of GOP rule threatened the state's finances.

Kilgore countered: "I'm proud of not supporting that tax increase." Referring to the economic uptick that helped produce a $1.2 billion surplus for the state, Kilgore said, "I've been proven right, that the tax increase wasn't necessary."

Both candidates hedged on how Justice Sandra Day O'Connor's departure from the U.S. Supreme Court might affect the abortion issue.


Kaine said the state should emphasize "tried and trusted ways to cut abortion," including contraception access. He does not support abortion, citing his faith, but said he would enforce laws allowing it.

In contrast, Kilgore, backed by anti-abortion organizations, said Virginia should "support a culture of life."

Should the abortion landscape change, Kaine said, the practice should not be criminalized. Kilgore was vague when asked if he would sign legislation reversing abortion rights.

Yesterday's 90-minute debate before the Virginia Bar Association at The Greenbrier resort was the first since Kilgore and Kaine were nominated last month.

Kilgore hit on hot-button topics that stir his Republican base, including hostility to taxes, gay rights and gun-control resistance.

Kaine, tried to reassemble the bipartisan coalition that brought a Democratic victory in 2001. He promised to maintain the centrist course Warner set.

Independent candidate H. Russell Potts Jr. was locked out the debate. But he said in a phone interview from Farmville that Kilgore and Kaine are ducking tough issues, such as financing transportation and preserving abortion rights, which may be threatened by O'Connor's vacancy.

Potts, a Republican state senator from Winchester, rebelled against his party's shift right. He needled Kaine on the death penalty and accused Kilgore of a "character flaw, a confidence flaw" for refusing to participate in debates open to all three candidates.

To reach Virginia voters, the candidates relied on print, TV and radio reporters covering the debate, which was not broadcast live.

Heading into the faceoff, expectations were low for Kilgore. He was widely viewed as having been drubbed in debates with Kaine, a seasoned litigator, in 2003 and 2004 before statehouse reporters. Yesterday, Kilgore was occasionally peppery as he portrayed Kaine as an unreliable flip-flopper.

"I'm proud to share a stage with my opponents, and I say 'opponents,' because I'm anxious to see which Tim Kaine has shown up today," Kilgore said.

Pressing claims that Kilgore is weak and indecisive, Kaine said Kilgore's promise to put most tax increases to the electorate would mire Virginia in a "California system of government by referendum that has failed miserably."

In 2002, Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia voters rejected higher taxes for regional transportation projects.

Kaine has said he would veto additional taxes for transportation unless the GOP-controlled General Assembly agrees to constitutional prohibitions against using road dollars for other purposes. Most road dollars come from fuel taxes.

The candidates seemed better matched this time because of Kilgore's aggression, said Robert Denton, a specialist in political advertising at Virginia Tech. Kaine and Kilgore next meet in September before the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce.

Debate moderator Robert D. Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University, said Kaine faced a greater challenge yesterday than Kilgore. Kaine must blur distinctions with his rival to appeal to Virginia's Republican-leaning voters, Holsworth said.

Kilgore relied more on his set piece. He frequently repeated rhetorical flourishes characterizing him as a reliable conservative with a populist streak. "Always have, always will," Kilgore said, citing his support of referenda, gun rights, abortion restrictions and capital punishment.

Kilgore also renewed his attack on Kaine's record as a Richmond City Council member and mayor. For example, Kilgore noted that the city's schools -- as measured by Republican-authored standardized exams -- were among the worst in state and the most expensive to operate.

At least twice, Kilgore linked Kaine to corruption in Richmond by invoking Mayor L. Douglas Wilder's description of the municipal government as a "cesspool of corruption."

Kaine countered that during his years in City Hall, real estate tax rates fell. He also said gun crime was cut under an initiative backed by both Handgun Control Inc. and the National Rifle Association. He added that Richmond built new schools, including a nationally recognized high school, Maggie L. Walker Governor's School.

On the death penalty, Kilgore, a former prosecutor, repeated that he favors its expansion to include gang leaders who order others to kill. Kaine said a broadened death-penalty law would not deter crime. He added that Kilgore's opposition to additional taxes would have denied millions to law enforcement.

"You can't be tough on crime and be cheap on crime," Kaine said.

[Defarge]

Newest Mason-Dixon Poll.
Kaine: 38
Kilgore: 37
Potts: 9
http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD%2FMGArticle%2FRTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031784027392&path=%21news%21politics&s=1045855935264

Very surprising.