Post-Debate Reaction

[Oakvale]

I didn't watch. What did Perry do that everybody agrees was so catastrophic? I've never seen so much unanimous agreement on anything on here. Ever.

EDIT: read on CNN. Ok.the man had a brain fart. It happens. I'm the last person who wants to defend Perry, but if the GOP is choosing that over actual policy positions (and I think Perry's suck), to determine who their candidate is, they're even bigger fools than I thought all along.

It was really, really embarassing though. I felt sorry for him. Watch it on Youtube or something.

[Bacon King]

I didn't watch. What did Perry do that everybody agrees was so catastrophic? I've never seen so much unanimous agreement on anything on here. Ever.

"There are three Federal Agencies that when I get there are gone. Commerce, Education, and eh... the eh... what's the third one there? Lessee..."

Ron Paul jokes, "how bout five!"

"Five, heheh okay! But, Commerce, Education, and uh... the uh... er.... uh..."

Mitt Romney, helpfully: "The EPA?"

"EPA! Thereyago. Naw, I'mkiddinya."

Moderator: "Seriously? Is the EPA the one you were talking about?"

"No sir. No sir. We're talking about the, eh, agencies of government... the EPA needs to be rebuilt..."

Moderator: "But you can't name the third one?"

"The third agency of government I would do away with. Education... the uh... em..."

Romney, helpfully: "Commerce"

"Commerce, and let's see... I can't. The third one... I can't, sorry... Oops."

*a few seconds of silence that seem to last forever*

[fezzyfestoon]

I only got to watch a few moments of it. What I did see though was Gingrich and Cain looking like assholes, Romney looking deliberately less-than-polished yet robotic as ever, and the others just watching everyone else pass them by.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I didn't think Perry could scew up more than the "liquid gold"

[memphis]

That fact that everybody is drooling over a brain fart (a bad one, granted) rather than the egregious nutterdom that is the policy discussion of a GOP debate tells you everything (ok, not everything) that's wrong with the presentation of American politics.

[memphis]

And a Perry collapse could be DISASTEROUS for Romney. More than anything, he needs the conservative vote to be split. Iif Perry's support all goes to one consensus "conservative" candidate, Mittens is toast.

[Torie]

And a Perry collapse could be DISASTEROUS for Romney. More than anything, he needs the conservative vote to be split. Iif Perry's support all goes to one consensus "conservative" candidate, Mittens is toast.

It seems that the bulk of the Dems around here really (along with a few LDS loathing Pubbies) really don't want Mittens to be nominated doesn't it?

[Oakvale]

And a Perry collapse could be DISASTEROUS for Romney. More than anything, he needs the conservative vote to be split. Iif Perry's support all goes to one consensus "conservative" candidate, Mittens is toast.

It seems that the bulk of the Dems around here really (along with a few LDS loathing Pubbies) really don't want Mittens to be nominated doesn't it?

Well, uh, yeah, because poll after poll shows he's the only nominee who could beat Obama.

[memphis]

And a Perry collapse could be DISASTEROUS for Romney. More than anything, he needs the conservative vote to be split. Iif Perry's support all goes to one consensus "conservative" candidate, Mittens is toast.

It seems that the bulk of the Dems around here really (along with a few LDS loathing Pubbies) really don't want Mittens to be nominated doesn't it?

Well, uh, yeah, because poll after poll shows he's the only nominee who could beat Obama.

^^^^^^^^
But seriously, a Perry collapse is an enormous liability for Romney. That's not spin. That's reality. Mittens isn't getting more than 40% of GOP primary vote as long as there is a viable conservative alternative.

[RogueBeaver]

And a Perry collapse could be DISASTEROUS for Romney. More than anything, he needs the conservative vote to be split. Iif Perry's support all goes to one consensus "conservative" candidate, Mittens is toast.

It seems that the bulk of the Dems around here really (along with a few LDS loathing Pubbies) really don't want Mittens to be nominated doesn't it?

Well, uh, yeah, because poll after poll shows he's the only nominee who could beat Obama.

^^^^^^^^
But seriously, a Perry collapse is an enormous liability for Romney. That's not spin. That's reality. Mittens isn't getting more than 40% of GOP primary vote as long as there is a viable conservative alternative.

That viable ABR is who? Newt "more baggage than JFK's cargo terminal at Xmas" Gingrich? Herman "999" Cain? Any of the white-noisers?

No, Romney is still going to be the nominee.

[memphis]

And a Perry collapse could be DISASTEROUS for Romney. More than anything, he needs the conservative vote to be split. Iif Perry's support all goes to one consensus "conservative" candidate, Mittens is toast.

It seems that the bulk of the Dems around here really (along with a few LDS loathing Pubbies) really don't want Mittens to be nominated doesn't it?

Well, uh, yeah, because poll after poll shows he's the only nominee who could beat Obama.

^^^^^^^^
But seriously, a Perry collapse is an enormous liability for Romney. That's not spin. That's reality. Mittens isn't getting more than 40% of GOP primary vote as long as there is a viable conservative alternative.

That viable ABR is who? Newt "more baggage than JFK's cargo terminal at Xmas" Gingrich? Herman "999" Cain? Any of the white-noisers?

No, Romney is still going to be the nominee.

Romney may well be the nominee. He still has several conservative opponents. The more, the merrier for Mitt. But each one knocked out is a problem mathematically. And the base, who typically makes up voters in a primary, doesn't give a rat's behind about baggage.

[Torie]

Each and every Pubbie I chat with in real life (including ex governor Pete Wilson with whom I spoke for a few minutes a couple of nights ago) wants to nominate the strongest opponent to Obama. Granted, it is a non random sample.

[Oakvale]

Each and every Pubbie I chat with in real life (including ex governor Pete Wilson with whom I spoke for a few minutes a couple of nights ago) wants to nominate the strongest opponent to Obama. Granted, it is a non random sample.

I think that's probably true, but I also think there's a non-negligible faction of the primary vote (the same which is current doggedly sticking by Cain) that are convinced that a 'true conservative' or whatever will also be, inherently, the strongest opponent to Obama.

Red State (?) had a post to the effect that a Romney nomination will be a disaster for the Republicans because moderates don't win elections or some bullsh**t.

[Torie]

Each and every Pubbie I chat with in real life (including ex governor Pete Wilson with whom I spoke for a few minutes a couple of nights ago) wants to nominate the strongest opponent to Obama. Granted, it is a non random sample.

I think that's probably true, but I also think there's a non-negligible faction of the primary vote (the same which is current doggedly sticking by Cain) that are convinced that a 'true conservative' or whatever will also be, inherently, the strongest opponent to Obama.

Red State (?) had a post to the effect that a Romney nomination will be a disaster for the Republicans because moderates don't win elections or some bullsh**t.

Without moderates like Torie on board the Pubbie will lose to Obama - period. Isn't that obvious?

[memphis]

Each and every Pubbie I chat with in real life (including ex governor Pete Wilson with whom I spoke for a few minutes a couple of nights ago) wants to nominate the strongest opponent to Obama. Granted, it is a non random sample.

So why doesn't Romney have a commanding lead in the polls? You've got to get out of your liberal ivory tower and meet some hard working heartland folks

[Oakvale]

Each and every Pubbie I chat with in real life (including ex governor Pete Wilson with whom I spoke for a few minutes a couple of nights ago) wants to nominate the strongest opponent to Obama. Granted, it is a non random sample.

I think that's probably true, but I also think there's a non-negligible faction of the primary vote (the same which is current doggedly sticking by Cain) that are convinced that a 'true conservative' or whatever will also be, inherently, the strongest opponent to Obama.

Red State (?) had a post to the effect that a Romney nomination will be a disaster for the Republicans because moderates don't win elections or some bullsh**t.

Without moderates like Torie on board the Pubbie will lose to Obama - period. Isn't that obvious?

To me, and to anyone reasonable, sure. To the "Anyone But Romney" crowd, apparently not. Or they just don't care, but I think it's the former.

[Torie]

Each and every Pubbie I chat with in real life (including ex governor Pete Wilson with whom I spoke for a few minutes a couple of nights ago) wants to nominate the strongest opponent to Obama. Granted, it is a non random sample.

So why doesn't Romney have a commanding lead in the polls? You've got to get out of your liberal ivory tower and meet some hard working heartland folks

You are beginning to sound like CARL.    Anyhoo, some are holding back still watching and waiting (and in CA we have a long wait, since the primary is not until June), but that is their Boolean function.

[memphis]

Each and every Pubbie I chat with in real life (including ex governor Pete Wilson with whom I spoke for a few minutes a couple of nights ago) wants to nominate the strongest opponent to Obama. Granted, it is a non random sample.

So why doesn't Romney have a commanding lead in the polls? You've got to get out of your liberal ivory tower and meet some hard working heartland folks

You are beginning to sound like CARL.    Anyhoo, some are holding back still watching and waiting (and in CA we have a long wait, since the primary is not until June), but that is their Boolean function.

You think you're more representative of GOP primary voters than CARL. I've got news for you. Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

[angus]

Without moderates like Torie on board the Pubbie will lose to Obama

Likely.

You ever click on the PM button at the top of this page?  Look at the distribution of blue dots and red dots.  Most of the blue dots fall on the right, and most of the red on the left.  Fair enough.

What fraction of the blue dots are to the left of about 3.5?  Eyeballing, I'd say at least a third.  Maybe close to 40 percent.  Now, those blue dots just represent a subset of members who post on this forum.  Do they represent the GOP primary electorate at all?  If they do, then what you said about the general election applies as well to the primary, in the sense that without the moderate and left of the Republican party, a candidate cannot win the primary.

Also, if this forum represents the general electorate, then no Republican would ever have a shot in the general election (see pie chart below), so it may not be a fair comparison.

[memphis]

And yet the common conservative talking point is that the GOP loses when their candidate isn't conservative enough. I've heard a million times that "moderates" like Dole and McCain depress conservative turnout and let the Dems win. I don't buy it either, but that is mainstream GOP logic.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Each and every Pubbie I chat with in real life (including ex governor Pete Wilson with whom I spoke for a few minutes a couple of nights ago) wants to nominate the strongest opponent to Obama. Granted, it is a non random sample.

I think that's probably true, but I also think there's a non-negligible faction of the primary vote (the same which is current doggedly sticking by Cain) that are convinced that a 'true conservative' or whatever will also be, inherently, the strongest opponent to Obama.

Red State (?) had a post to the effect that a Romney nomination will be a disaster for the Republicans because moderates don't win elections or some bullsh**t.

Without moderates like Torie on board the Pubbie will lose to Obama - period. Isn't that obvious?

A deep enough recession could have Palin beating Obama. Going by the poll numbers, the only candidates who make any significant impact beyond "slightly less than Obama currently" would be Romney (slight bonus), Bachmann/Palin (large deficit), and Paul (Completely wonky map due to doing proportionally way better with indies and worse with pubbies compared to the rest of the field). Besides them, the election comes down to "Has the economy collapsed yet?" and "Terrorists?". Cain, Gingrich, and Perry will ultimately do about the same thing against Obama.

[Torie]

Without moderates like Torie on board the Pubbie will lose to Obama

Likely.

You ever click on the PM button at the top of this page?  Look at the distribution of blue dots and red dots.  Most of the blue dots fall on the right, and most of the red on the left.  Fair enough.

What fraction of the blue dots are to the left of about 3.5?  Eyeballing, I'd say at least a third.  Maybe close to 40 percent.  Now, those blue dots just represent a subset of members who post on this forum.  Do they represent the GOP primary electorate at all?  If they do, then what you said about the general election applies as well to the primary, in the sense that without the moderate and left of the Republican party, a candidate cannot win the primary.

Also, if this forum represents the general electorate, then no Republican would ever have a shot in the general election (see pie chart below), so it may not be a fair comparison.

This Forum is obviously unrepresentative of Pubbies, much less the electorate at large (as to the latter it is almost all white and young), with a much higher SES than average, and younger and more educated, and considerably more moderate, particularly on social issues, but my wing of the party is maybe about 15%-20% of it as a guess. On the forum, it might be close to a third - maybe even pushing 40%.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Without moderates like Torie on board the Pubbie will lose to Obama

Likely.

You ever click on the PM button at the top of this page?  Look at the distribution of blue dots and red dots.  Most of the blue dots fall on the right, and most of the red on the left.  Fair enough.

What fraction of the blue dots are to the left of about 3.5?  Eyeballing, I'd say at least a third.  Maybe close to 40 percent.  Now, those blue dots just represent a subset of members who post on this forum.  Do they represent the GOP primary electorate at all?  If they do, then what you said about the general election applies as well to the primary, in the sense that without the moderate and left of the Republican party, a candidate cannot win the primary.

Also, if this forum represents the general electorate, then no Republican would ever have a shot in the general election (see pie chart below), so it may not be a fair comparison.

This Forum is obviously unrepresentative of Pubbies, much less the electorate at large (as to the latter it is almost all white and young), with a much higher SES than average, and younger and more educated, and considerably more moderate, particularly on social issues, but my wing of the party is maybe about 15%-20% of it as a guess. On the forum, it might be close to a third.

If the economy is in bad enough shape, people who don't usually vote, swing voters and indies could make up the loss in "moderates" from the GOP without much problem, even assuming they defected (and barring maybe Palin, most wouldn't unless they want to be hypocrites about electability)

[Likely Voter]

I think the right wing media have convinced conservatives that Obama is so weak that anyone can beat him and so they don't have to compromise on a Romney.

There is also compromise fatigue with the last three nominees (Dole, Bush Jr, McCain) all seen as non true conservatives. So there is a "this is our turn" feeling that with such a weak President, this time they should get their first choice. Problem is that none of their first choice actually ran and so they now don't know what to do with the ones that are left to them, but that is why you will have to drag Cain out of their cold dead hands.

[angus]

If the economy is in bad enough shape, people who don't usually vote, swing voters and indies could make up the loss in "moderates" from the GOP without much problem, even assuming they defected (and barring maybe Palin, most wouldn't unless they want to be hypocrites about electability)

This is a good point.

It's also important to remember that about 15% of Republicans voted for Obama last time.  I was among them.  I'm not keen on helping Obama get re-elected, and I think I might be fairly representative of that 15% of Republicans.  I could support most of those nominees that I saw on stage last night, to be honest.  Not crazy about Bachmann, but she's not getting any traction anyway.