Post-Debate Reaction

[Sam Spade]

I have to agree that Newt is going to get some play again.  I don't think he has it either, of course, but don't be surprised to see him start to seriously move up in the polls to a competitive position.  Especially when the Cain boomlet fades.

Just as an FYI - if I thought that any of the candidates in the Republican primary could be taken seriously by the Republican base as a Presidential candidate after the usual scrutiny, Romney would be dead meat.  Otherwise, in the end, he'll be turned to out of desperation.  Which should say something, both short-term and long-term about things.

I think the last serious post on this forum I made was this one.  It was probably the last post worth reading on this forum, as well, except for maybe jmfcst, as he is the only one around who understands how Republican primaries operate.  It still applies, and quite frankly, with Perry and Bachmann both destroyed and Cain perhaps mortally wounded (and not coming across as a deep thinker), it is obvious who will benefit.

P.S. I did think about responding to Torie's comment that if Herman Cain imploded, Mitt Romney would move up in the polls, but there was no real point in responding to such inanity.

[Yelnoc]

I didn't get to see the debate, so someone inform me.  Do I need to change my username?

[Bacon King]

I didn't get to see the debate, so someone inform me.  Do I need to change my username?

Nah, the Cain Train is still on the rails.

The Perry Ferry has capsized, though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rick Perry is now the definition of Epic Fail.

[cavalcade]

Romney: B+.  The spotlight was on him, but he did what he does best- dodge when necessary, go into detail and show off his knowledge when possible.

Cain: B.  Survived.  Too one-note, but the Tea Party is happy.  This debate will play no role in any decline in polling.

Perry: D.  I almost always stick to A- and B-level grades.  But wow.

Paul: B.  Intrade is slow, but when I checked during the debate, post-Perry, Paul was in 3rd behind Romney and Newt.  That's too high, but he did his job.  And he didn't kick Perry when he was down, which must have been tempting.

Bachmann: B-.  This won't get her back in the picture.  Nothing really memorable here.

Gingrich: A-.  Winner of the debate.  I think he's hit the perfect mix of "I blame the media" "I am a serious intellectual" and "I have a witty soundbite about Obama" which has got to be a tough act to pull off.  The only flaws are he's got some moderate-sounding views in the mix, and he now needs people to write checks.

Santorum: B+.  The happy warrior marches on- he loves debates and it shows.  He's good at them too.  But not a lot of time tonight as things went on, and being good at debates hasn't helped him in the polls.  Tonight won't change that.

Huntsman: B-.  Huntsman's strategy seems to be to convince everyone that America is in really really deep trouble and hope that they decide to nominate an adult.  Every time he answers a question it's like he's going to announce that terrorists have nuked New York.

[Link]

Only Perry's brain freeze will be covered by media.  The rest of debate will have zero impact on polls.  The news will switch back to Cain if (when) more details of the allegations come out.

Herman Cain's "princess Pelosi" comment will get covered... count on it.

[Torie]

I have to agree that Newt is going to get some play again.  I don't think he has it either, of course, but don't be surprised to see him start to seriously move up in the polls to a competitive position.  Especially when the Cain boomlet fades.

Just as an FYI - if I thought that any of the candidates in the Republican primary could be taken seriously by the Republican base as a Presidential candidate after the usual scrutiny, Romney would be dead meat.  Otherwise, in the end, he'll be turned to out of desperation.  Which should say something, both short-term and long-term about things.

I think the last serious post on this forum I made was this one.  It was probably the last post worth reading on this forum, as well, except for maybe jmfcst, as he is the only one around who understands how Republican primaries operate.  It still applies, and quite frankly, with Perry and Bachmann both destroyed and Cain perhaps mortally wounded (and not coming across as a deep thinker), it is obvious who will benefit.

P.S. I did think about responding to Torie's comment that if Herman Cain imploded, Mitt Romney would move up in the polls, but there was no real point in responding to such inanity.

That post was just about actual poll numbers from two states smartass. But yes, not everyone in the other camps thinks stop Mittens is job one actually. So when one of them drops ...

[Simfan34]

Huntsman: B-.  Huntsman's strategy seems to be to convince everyone that America is in really really deep trouble and hope that they decide to nominate an adult.  Every time he answers a question it's like he's going to announce that terrorists have nuked New York.

But it is.

[Sam Spade]

I have to agree that Newt is going to get some play again.  I don't think he has it either, of course, but don't be surprised to see him start to seriously move up in the polls to a competitive position.  Especially when the Cain boomlet fades.

Just as an FYI - if I thought that any of the candidates in the Republican primary could be taken seriously by the Republican base as a Presidential candidate after the usual scrutiny, Romney would be dead meat.  Otherwise, in the end, he'll be turned to out of desperation.  Which should say something, both short-term and long-term about things.

I think the last serious post on this forum I made was this one.  It was probably the last post worth reading on this forum, as well, except for maybe jmfcst, as he is the only one around who understands how Republican primaries operate.  It still applies, and quite frankly, with Perry and Bachmann both destroyed and Cain perhaps mortally wounded (and not coming across as a deep thinker), it is obvious who will benefit.

P.S. I did think about responding to Torie's comment that if Herman Cain imploded, Mitt Romney would move up in the polls, but there was no real point in responding to such inanity.

That post was just about actual poll numbers from two states smartass. But yes, not everyone in the other camps thinks stop Mittens is job one actually. So when one of them drops ...

It was before both of those polls, and btw, just because polls say that someone is one's "second choice", it does not mean that those voters will automatically go to said choice.  They may well stay with the candidate, or go back to undecided, or change their second choice.  You should know that.  It's like polling 101, or something.

The fact is that those vast majority of those voters who have been moving from Bachmann, to Perry, and then to Cain, and then wherever...  Those are voters who will never go to Romney, ever.  Quite frankly, it's like 20% of the Republican primary electorate.  The reason why I've predicted Romney will win the nomination is listed above.  And we ain't at that point yet.  And still those voters won't vote for him, as noted - it's the vast majority of those undecideds out there that I'm banking on.  But it probably won't happen until after NH or SC, so be forewarned.

And I'll say it right now, I can't disagree with that section of the Republican party in some respects.  It is highly unlikely that I would ever vote for a Mormon, because frankly, they don't have souls, and cannot be trusted on anything.  It's not because the election of Mitt Romney would permanently destroy the Republican party given what's gonna happen - I could care less about that.

[cavalcade]

Huntsman: B-.  Huntsman's strategy seems to be to convince everyone that America is in really really deep trouble and hope that they decide to nominate an adult.  Every time he answers a question it's like he's going to announce that terrorists have nuked New York.

But it is.

I deleted the line "He's really bad at it." from my post.  I should have left it in, because he makes no impact in any debates.

[Saxwsylvania]

Winners: Cain, Gingrich, Romney, Bachmann
Losers: Santorum, Huntsman, PERRY

[Reginald]

Perry's definitely wishing he had chosen to skip the rest of these debates.

[bgwah]

I have to agree that Newt is going to get some play again.  I don't think he has it either, of course, but don't be surprised to see him start to seriously move up in the polls to a competitive position.  Especially when the Cain boomlet fades.

Just as an FYI - if I thought that any of the candidates in the Republican primary could be taken seriously by the Republican base as a Presidential candidate after the usual scrutiny, Romney would be dead meat.  Otherwise, in the end, he'll be turned to out of desperation.  Which should say something, both short-term and long-term about things.

I think the last serious post on this forum I made was this one.  It was probably the last post worth reading on this forum, as well, except for maybe jmfcst, as he is the only one around who understands how Republican primaries operate.  It still applies, and quite frankly, with Perry and Bachmann both destroyed and Cain perhaps mortally wounded (and not coming across as a deep thinker), it is obvious who will benefit.

P.S. I did think about responding to Torie's comment that if Herman Cain imploded, Mitt Romney would move up in the polls, but there was no real point in responding to such inanity.

Hey, I didn't quite catch that... Do you think you could copy and paste your prophetic quote from less than a month ago for a third time, please? After all, it's not like a lot of people have been thinking Gingrich had potential to rise in the polls soon.

[Ogre Mage]

Prior to this debate, I thought there was a small but possible chance Perry could come back.  He was the only one who had strong enough fundamentals to challenge Romney.

His campaign is now dead.  Romney will be the nominee.

[Mr. Morden]

It was probably the last post worth reading on this forum, as well, except for maybe jmfcst, as he is the only one around who understands how Republican primaries operate. 

this would be how I handicap the race:

Cain 40%
Newt 25%
some-other-antiRomney-not-yet-in-the-race 20%
Romney 15%

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Gingrich
Romney
Huntsman
Paul
Santorum
Cain
Bachmann
Perry

Performance predictions:

Gingrich
Romney
Huntsman
Paul
Santorum
Cain
Bachmann
Perry

I will now accept my accolades.

[Oakvale]

So, yeah, I just saw the "Oops" moment. Wow, I genuinely felt sorry for Perry. It's becoming more and more obvious every day why he didn't want to run for President for so long.

[The Vorlon]

The Perry meltdown is/will get soooo much air time that it will basically suck up all the oxygen and it will be as if the rest of the debate never happened.

"Princess Pelosi" might get some airplay.. and not in a good way for Cain.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Romney... one day closer to the inevitable.... won by not losing.

Gingrich - If he was not Gingrich he would be doing amazingly well - smartest guy in the room and it's not even close (at least according to Newt)

Cain - Didn't hurt himself, but needed to help himself, so he lost relative to what he needed to do.

Perry, - Actually was doing OK until he, well, committed suicide and splattered his brains all over the room. - but other than that..........

Paul - He is, in fact, completely correct on a number of issues - Not that politically that is relevant.

Others = irrelevant before, irrelevant after.

[Torie]

Mormons don't have souls Sam Spade?  Would you care to expand on that?  I assume you don't mean that, er literally, although come to think of it, I agree that they don't from a literal perspective, but then I don't think anyone else does either.

Anyway, is the the LDS thing the real factor fueling your unmitigated animus to Mittens? 

[Lief 🗽]

It is highly unlikely that I would ever vote for a Mormon, because frankly, they don't have souls, and cannot be trusted on anything. 

SS and I see eye to eye on something for once.

[Torie]

It is highly unlikely that I would ever vote for a Mormon, because frankly, they don't have souls, and cannot be trusted on anything. 

SS and I see eye to eye on something for once.

Maybe we need a thread on this in the religion section. Why don't you think Mormons have souls Lief?

[Lief 🗽]

It is highly unlikely that I would ever vote for a Mormon, because frankly, they don't have souls, and cannot be trusted on anything. 

SS and I see eye to eye on something for once.

Maybe we need a thread on this in the religion section. Why don't you think Mormons have souls Lief?

Well, I don't believe in "souls" (obviously), but I think we can all agree that Mormonism is a strange cult based on the pretty obvious lies of a 19th-century charlatan and child molester.

[The Vorlon]

It is highly unlikely that I would ever vote for a Mormon, because frankly, they don't have souls, and cannot be trusted on anything. 

SS and I see eye to eye on something for once.

Maybe we need a thread on this in the religion section. Why don't you think Mormons have souls Lief?

Well, I don't believe in "souls" (obviously), but I think we can all agree that Mormonism is a strange cult based on the pretty obvious lies of a 19th-century charlatan and child molester.

[Link]

It is highly unlikely that I would ever vote for a Mormon, because frankly, they don't have souls, and cannot be trusted on anything. 

SS and I see eye to eye on something for once.

Maybe we need a thread on this in the religion section. Why don't you think Mormons have souls Lief?

Well, I don't believe in "souls" (obviously), but I think we can all agree that Mormonism is a strange cult based on the pretty obvious lies of a 19th-century charlatan and child molester.

[memphis]

I didn't watch. What did Perry do that everybody agrees was so catastrophic? I've never seen so much unanimous agreement on anything on here. Ever.

EDIT: read on CNN. Ok.the man had a brain fart. It happens. I'm the last person who wants to defend Perry, but if the GOP is choosing on the basis of that fary over actual policy positions (and I think Perry's suck), to determine who their candidate is, they're even bigger fools than I thought all along.