Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll

[CatoMinor]

Santorum is literally going to live in Iowa at least until the straw poll:

http://www.thestatecolumn.com/articles/rick-santorum-moves-to-iowa-ahead-of-ames-straw-poll/

Didn't Dodd try this?

[Rowan]

Ames straw poll ballot is set:

Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, McCotter, Pawlenty, Paul, Romney, and Santorum.

Perry and Palin are NOT included.

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/07/23/the-official-straw-poll-ballot-is-now-final/

[Meeker]

Is there really any doubt at this point that Bachmann is going to win this?

[Yelnoc]

I'll add it to the thread.

[Rowan]

Didn't realize there was an official thread. Sorry!

[Yelnoc]

Straw Poll ballot has been finalized.  See top.  Note that write-in ballots will be counted.

[Meeker]

As I said in the other thread, is there really any doubt at this point that Bachmann is going to win this?

[Yelnoc]

As I said in the other thread, is there really any doubt at this point that Bachmann is going to win this?

Paul might pack the convention with his supporters.  If he rents a few school buses, he could transport 300+ 17-21 year olds to Ames.

Anyways, now we can start making bets on the placement.  Here's my ranking guess (assuming Paul successfully seats his supporters):

1. Bachmann
2. Paul
3. write-in: Perry
4. Cain
5. McCotter
6. Pawlenty
7. Romney
8. Santorum
9. Gingrich
10. write-in: Huckabee
11. Huntsman

[The Mikado]

As I said in the other thread, is there really any doubt at this point that Bachmann is going to win this?

Paul might pack the convention with his supporters.  If he rents a few school buses, he could transport 300+ 17-21 year olds to Ames.

Anyways, now we can start making bets on the placement.  Here's my ranking guess (assuming Paul successfully seats his supporters):

1. Bachmann
2. Paul
3. write-in: Perry
4. Cain
5. McCotter
6. Pawlenty
7. Romney
8. Santorum
9. Gingrich
10. write-in: Huckabee
11. Huntsman

What's your reasoning behind having Romney finish behind McCotter and Pawlenty?  Does McCotter have any supporters anywhere at all?  I haven't heard of a single person anywhere supporting McCotter that isn't on his payroll.

[Rowan]

Didn't McCotter buy a booth there?

[Yelnoc]

As I said in the other thread, is there really any doubt at this point that Bachmann is going to win this?

Paul might pack the convention with his supporters.  If he rents a few school buses, he could transport 300+ 17-21 year olds to Ames.

Anyways, now we can start making bets on the placement.  Here's my ranking guess (assuming Paul successfully seats his supporters):

1. Bachmann
2. Paul
3. write-in: Perry
4. Cain
5. McCotter
6. Pawlenty
7. Romney
8. Santorum
9. Gingrich
10. write-in: Huckabee
11. Huntsman

What's your reasoning behind having Romney finish behind McCotter and Pawlenty?  Does McCotter have any supporters anywhere at all?  I haven't heard of a single person anywhere supporting McCotter that isn't on his payroll.

Romney proclaiming that he is "skipping Ames" will probably be seen as a big "F- You!" to the voters there who chose in in 2007.  So I predict he does worse than expected; putting him behind Pawlenty fits the definition well.  McCotter is my wild card.  I'll probably end up looking like a fool for placing him that high, but he does have the best booth at the convention.  I have a feeling he has been trying to win support behind closed doors and, if he turns out to be a decent speaker (better than T-Paw, who get's on my nerves) than he might have a shot at the #5 slot.

[Reluctant Republican]

My gut is going with a Paul win here. He has the best booth and if you take  a look at his fansites(That feels really weird to type) There's intense planning going on to get him a win. IIRC he's already rented several buses.  Plus if there's one thing Paul supporters are experts at, it's winning straw polls. And given how much he spent on the booth, I think he'll probably spend as much as it takes to guarantee victory. A moneybomb the other day based on Ames brought in 550k. Though I'm not sure if that's all to be spent on Iowa and Ames.

That being said, a Bachmann win is still very possible.  But I'll put my non existent reputation on the line and say Paul win win it. I also have to agree that Romney's going to do worse then expected, though I think worse in this case will be 4th or 5th, which he can still spin as mildly positive.

[Meeker]

If Paul only got 5th in 2007 I don't really see why he'd do so much better this time around.

[The Mikado]

his fansites(That feels really weird to type)

[Mr. Morden]

As I said in the other thread, is there really any doubt at this point that Bachmann is going to win this?

Paul might pack the convention with his supporters.  If he rents a few school buses, he could transport 300+ 17-21 year olds to Ames.

Anyways, now we can start making bets on the placement.  Here's my ranking guess (assuming Paul successfully seats his supporters):

1. Bachmann
2. Paul
3. write-in: Perry
4. Cain
5. McCotter
6. Pawlenty
7. Romney
8. Santorum
9. Gingrich
10. write-in: Huckabee
11. Huntsman

What's your reasoning behind having Romney finish behind McCotter and Pawlenty?

I highly doubt Romney is going to come anywhere close to matching Bachmann, Paul, or Pawlenty in this thing.  Keep in mind, many of the people who participate in this are directly bused in by the campaigns.  Very few people show up to vote for candidates who aren't there.

In Aug. 2007, Giuliani was at about 12-14% in the Iowa polls (and in 2nd place behind Romney), but he skipped the straw poll, and came in 8th place with 1.3%:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ames_Straw_Poll#August_11.2C_2007

[AUH2O Libertarian]

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The moneybomb actually brought in 625K and it's all going directly towards Ames.

And if you read his FEC filings, he has already reserved over 100K worth of buses and he will have pick ups in every county for Ames.  In addition, the Grassroots through a PAC they just formed will also have a couple dozen buses lined up bringing in even more supporters.  If you read Ron Paul Forums, you'll see his supporters have been strategizing about winning Ames for almost two years now.

[tmthforu94]

I think Ron Paul will win this, with Bachmann right behind. Not really sure after that, a mix of Romney, Perry, Pawlenty, maybe Santorum all jumbled together.

[Reluctant Republican]

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The moneybomb actually brought in 625K and it's all going directly towards Ames.

And if you read his FEC filings, he has already reserved over 100K worth of buses and he will have pick ups in every county for Ames.  In addition, the Grassroots through a PAC they just formed will also have a couple dozen buses lined up bringing in even more supporters.  If you read Ron Paul Forums, you'll see his supporters have been strategizing about winning Ames for almost two years now.

I do indeed read RPF. I even occasionally post there. I was just having a bit of fun at the at times... over zealousness of the Ron Paul supporter.

Those reasons you mentioned are why I think Paul will win this. He's probably prepared for it more then any other candidate. That being said, I remain cautious. I remember back in 2008 I thought Paul was going to win Iowa, that the polls were wrong and neglected to count young voters with cell phones. Reality proved me wrong, and I am worried the hype surrounding Paul at Ames will prove similarly overblown. As Meeker mentioned, he only came in 5th place in 07.

All that being said, everything I've read from Iowa officials says it comes down to a race between Bachmann, Paul, and Pawlenty. That makes me think(and hope) he'll win it.

[Zarn]

I really don't think Pawlenty will place higher than third, but we will see.

[Tender Branson]

I really don't think Pawlenty will place higher than third, but we will see.

I think Bachmann will clearly win, followed by Pawlenty.

Then either Ron Paul or Rick Perry.

Then Gingrich or Cain.

Then the rest, with Santorum the most likely to drop out of the race the day after the straw poll.

[Niemeyerite]

1. Bachmann
2. Paul
3. Pawlenty
4. Perry (write-in)
5. Cain
6. McCotter
7. Gingrich
8. Huntsman
9. Santorum
10. Palin (write-in)

[Gustaf]

It seems like the main role of the Straw poll is to sort out those candidates who are struggling/under the radar, either knocking them out or propelling them to the front.

So, who will drop out or move up after this? I'm thinking Santorum, Gingrich, Pawlenty and Cain are all possibly in this group.

[Mr. Morden]

This is written in a somewhat confusing way:

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/07/23/rules-finalized-for-the-iowa-republican-debate-on-aug-11/

But my interpretation is that the nine candidates on the straw poll ballot will all be invited to the Aug. 11 debate.  They are:

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And additional candidates can participate in the debate if they meet all of these requirements:

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I doubt Johnson or Roemer will manage to average 1% in five national polls.  And Perry presumably won't be in the race yet at that point.  So I guess it'll just be those nine candidates who are participating (and I assume they'll all show up).

If I was playing in Intrade, I might actually throw a few dollars down on McCotter, just on the chance that he says something funny/memorable in the debate, and his share price increases a few tenths.  I mean, he's at 0.2 now, so there isn't much to lose.

[CatoMinor]

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/07/25/story-county-gops-cory-adams-endorses-ron-paul-for-president/

Ron Paul got an important endorsement from the Story County GOP chairman.

[Yelnoc]

Thanks Mr. Morden, I updated the OP.

Buying a little McCotter probably isn't that bad of an idea.  You might be able to sell it for a nice little profit during the Straw Poll.