Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll

[Tender Branson]

UPDATE: Bachmann wins.


Mr. Morden here......at Tender's request, I've hijacked this thread and turned it into the Iowa straw poll live commentary thread.  Tender's original post is written below.

This thread covers live commentary and predictions for the Ames straw poll.  The speaking schedule (all times are in Central time):

http://iowagop.org/iowagop/?p=635

Iowa Straw Poll Speaking Schedule:

Noon- Program Begins
12:15- Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn delivers remarks
12:20- Governor Terry Branstad delivers remarks
12:30- Chairman Strawn welcomes all candidates on stage (press shot)
12:40- Senator Rick Santorum delivers remarks
1:00- Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds delivers remarks
1:15- Congressman Ron Paul delivers remarks
1:40- Congressman Steve King delivers remarks
1:50- Governor Tim Pawlenty delivers remarks
2:10- Senator Chuck Grassley delivers remarks
2:20- Congresswoman Michele Bachmann delivers remarks
2:40- Congressman Tom Latham delivers remarks
2:50- Congressman Thaddeus McCotter delivers remarks
3:15- Herman Cain delivers remarks
Straw Poll voting closes at 4pm. Chairman Matt Strawn will deliver the Straw Poll results on stage immediately after they’ve been tabulated.

The above will all be covered live by C-SPAN.  The actual results may take a few hours to tabulate.  Or at least they did last time.  Here's the thread from four years ago, when we didn't get any results until nearly 9:30pm Eastern:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59917.msg1262963#msg1262963

Tender's original message:

The list of candidates is a bit longer this year, some of them won't even compete in the straw poll (like Mitt Romney), but history has shown that candidates still get votes, even if they don't compete - so I still include them.

I think it will be a tight race between Bachmann and Perry.

What do you think ?

These were the 2007 predictions:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59917.0

We have 16 pages and 69 votes to beat this year ...

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances that TPaw will be the Tommy Thompson of 2011 ?

Doing worse than expected in the straw poll and then dropping out afterwards ?

Or will he go all the way until the caucuses ?

[Lief 🗽]

Bachmania will triumph.

[CatoMinor]

I have faith in a Paul win.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know who and when it will be decided which candidates will appear on the straw poll ballot ?

[Cobbler]

Probably Bachmann or Paul (if his supporters continue their straw poll strategy). I expect Cain to do alright too.

[Progressive]

I think Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Paul wind up on top

[Landslide Lyndon]

What are the chances that TPaw will be the Tommy Thompson of 2011 ?

Doing worse than expected in the straw poll and then dropping out afterwards ?

Chris Cillizza will be heartbroken.

[RogueBeaver]

What are the chances that TPaw will be the Tommy Thompson of 2011 ?

Doing worse than expected in the straw poll and then dropping out afterwards ?

Chris Cillizza will be heartbroken.

Ditto for George Will.

On the OP: Bachmann.

[Likely Voter]

What are the chances that TPaw will be the Tommy Thompson of 2011 ?

Doing worse than expected in the straw poll and then dropping out afterwards ?

I predicted this exact scenario a couple weeks ago. He is now putting all his eggs money wise into Ames. It is all or nothing for him. The question is, what is good enough. I would say top 2. But if Perry gets in, i could see TPaw getting 3rd or 4th (behind Bachmann, Perry and Cain). 4th is definately not good enough to stay in for him, but he would probably stay in with a 3rd place showing

[Mr. Morden]

Does anyone know who and when it will be decided which candidates will appear on the straw poll ballot ?

I think the date I remember reading was something like July 23 or 24.

[Badger]

Bachmania will triumph.

[King]

I'm so excited about Bachmann.  Finally, a good Christian true conservative will be the nominee of the GOP.

And we can finally put to rest the notion that the American people actually want that in a President.

[The Mikado]

I think Pawlenty is in it for the entire ordeal.  I don't think he'll drop out until after he gets under 5% in both Iowa and New Hampshire (and I firmly believe that that will happen).

[King]

I think Pawlenty is in it for the entire ordeal.  I don't think he'll drop out until after he gets under 5% in both Iowa and New Hampshire (and I firmly believe that that will happen).

Well, he's pretty much the Richardson of this cycle so that's a reasonable preiction.  Looks good on paper and clicking on no cylinders.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Ron Paul will win, because of his supporters strategies. Cain, Perry, Bachmann, Bolton, Pawlenty, and Santorum will do respectfully.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Who said Gingrich? Please explain your answer using complete sentences.

[Reluctant Republican]

My gut says Paul. He's putting everything into this, and if there's one thing he's good at, it's winning straw polls. In addition, he has experience with Ames before, so he may have a better understanding of what it takes to win(Or not, given his campaign staff was inept last time and I'm not yet sure about this time) Lastly, IIRC his name will be on the top of the ballot.

The big story rightly or wrongly will be Bachmann's second place finish though. Paul will be dismissed and Bachmann will be compared to the insurgent campaign of Mike Huckabee.

[TheGlobalizer]

I think it'll be Paul.  It's his all-in moment and I think Bachmania will fade by then.

I don't think he wins IA though.

[Yelnoc]

I'll be updating this thread periodically with news regarding the Ames Straw Poll.  Please post stories relates to it and the preceding date here.  Feel free to make bets on who will place where in here also.

The Big Dates

July 23 - Iowa GOP finalizes Ballot
Bachmann
Cain
Gingrich
Huntsman
McCotter
Pawlenty
Paul
Romney
Santorum

August 11 - Debate
A joint venture between the Iowa GOP, Washington Examiner, and Fox News, which will air the debate live.  Located in the CY Stephens Auditorium at the Iowa State Center in Ames, Iowa, the debate will start at 8pm CST.  Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, and I believe Newt Gingrich have all accepted invitations.  If I miss a news story, let me know.

The nine candidates invited to the strawpoll (see above) have all been invited to the debate.  Additional candidates can participate in the debate if they meet all of these requirements:

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August 13 - Straw Poll
Iowa Straw Poll Speaking Schedule:
Noon- Program Begins
12:15- Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn delivers remarks
12:20- Governor Terry Branstad delivers remarks
12:30- Chairman Strawn welcomes all candidates on stage (press shot)
12:40- Senator Rick Santorum delivers remarks
1:00- Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds delivers remarks
1:15- Congressman Ron Paul delivers remarks
1:40- Congressman Steve King delivers remarks
1:50- Governor Tim Pawlenty delivers remarks
2:10- Senator Chuck Grassley delivers remarks
2:20- Congresswoman Michele Bachmann delivers remarks
2:40- Congressman Tom Latham delivers remarks
2:50- Congressman Thaddeus McCotter delivers remarks
3:15- Herman Cain delivers remarks

Some general Notes...
-To be held at the Hilton Coliseum at Iowa State University's campus.
-Mitt Romney is skipping the Straw Poll, presumably to focus on New Hampshire.
-Newt Gingrich indicated in late June that due to his campaigns financial woes, he will not directly participate (see note in Booths).  From what I understand, he will likely still be on the ballot despite his statements, though he won't know for another few days.
-Youth who will be able to cast a vote in the November 2012 presidential election will be allowed to vote in the straw poll.  
-Straw Poll tickets will cost $30, down by $5 from 2007.

The booths, which were in the news late last month when they were being auctioned, panned out like so...
-Ron Paul was the highest bidder for a lot for $31,000.00
-McCotter bought a lot for $18,000.00, he was the second highest bidder
-Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain where the next highest bidders, with each getting a lot for $17,000.00.
-Rick Santorum spent $15,000.00 for his lot.
-Pawlenty ended up spending $15,000.00 for a less desirable lot.
-Newt Gingrich was represented at the meeting but did not bid.

[Mr. Morden]

The "Americans for Rick Perry" 527 group is aiming to get Perry on the straw poll ballot, even if Perry himself hasn't declared his intentions yet.  If he's not allowed on the ballot, they'll organize a write-in campaign:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59297.html

[Mehmentum]

So wait, if Perry doesn't announce his candidacy in the next four days, he won't be able to get onto the ballot?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So wait, if Perry doesn't announce his candidacy in the next four days, he won't be able to get onto the ballot?

He doesn't have to publically declare, but he needs to make his intentions clear within the party.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum is literally going to live in Iowa at least until the straw poll:

http://www.thestatecolumn.com/articles/rick-santorum-moves-to-iowa-ahead-of-ames-straw-poll/

[Zarn]

Only two people seem to have a shot at this.