Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll

[Yelnoc]

That sound fine Morden.

And does that picture of T-Paw remind anyone of the Dukakis Tank?

[All Along The Watchtower]

My predictions...

Bachmann: 26%
Paul: 24%
Cain: 15%
Pawlenty: 9%
Santorum: 8%
Romney: 5%
Perry: 5%
McCotter: 3%
Gingrich: 3%
Huntsman: 2%

[I AM REPUBLICAN]

My predictions...

Bachmann: 26%
Paul: 24%
Cain: 15%
Pawlenty: 9%
Santorum: 8%
Romney: 5%
Perry: 5%
McCotter: 3%
Gingrich: 3%
Huntsman: 2%

Paul won't poll that high. Cain will probably poll lower than that, probably around 10%. Pawlenty will probably get a little higher than that, and Perry will get around 8%.

My predicts:

Bachmann: 19%
Paul: 15%
Pawltenty: 14%
Santorum: 11%
Cain: 11%
Perry (W/I): 10%
Romney: 8%
McCotter: 5%
Gingrich: 3%
Huntsman: 2%
Others (W/I): 2%

[Likely Voter]

I cant guess % but I will go with rankings
1. Bachmann
2. Paul
3. Pawlenty
4. Romney
5. Perry
6. Cain
7. Santorum
8. McCotter
9. Gingrich
10. Huntsman


What is Pawlenty's minimum placing before having to drop out due to embarrassment? I think if he doesn't get into the top 2 is money is going to dry up and since he appears to be betting the farm (and all his $) on Ames, this may be the end for T-Paw.

[Mr. Morden]

McCotter will not be in the Thursday debate after all:

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/08/09/eight-gop-candidates-on-final-lineup-for-thursdays-debate-in-iowa/

According to this:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20110809/OPINION01/308100006/0/NEWS/?odyssey=nav%7Chead

the Iowa GOP wanted to let him in, but co-host Fox News Channel said they'd only include candidates who averaged 1% in the polls.  McCotter will of course still be allowed to speak at the straw poll event itself on Saturday.

[Mr. Morden]

Iowa straw poll schedule (presumably, these are all in Central Time):

http://iowagop.org/iowagop/?p=635

Iowa Straw Poll Speaking Schedule:
Noon- Program Begins
12:15- Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn delivers remarks
12:20- Governor Terry Branstad delivers remarks
12:30- Chairman Strawn welcomes all candidates on stage (press shot)
12:40- Senator Rick Santorum delivers remarks
1:00- Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds delivers remarks
1:15- Congressman Ron Paul delivers remarks
1:40- Congressman Steve King delivers remarks
1:50- Governor Tim Pawlenty delivers remarks
2:10- Senator Chuck Grassley delivers remarks
2:20- Congresswoman Michele Bachmann delivers remarks
2:40- Congressman Tom Latham delivers remarks
2:50- Congressman Thaddeus McCotter delivers remarks
3:15- Herman Cain delivers remarks

Straw Poll voting closes at 4pm. Chairman Matt Strawn will deliver the Straw Poll results on stage immediately after they’ve been tabulated.

[California8429]

Well Cain should be winning this as long as he does another good speech.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Pawlenty's going hunting for votes.  But pulling the trigger may be a challenge with those mittens.  (Which is kind of like a metaphor, as one of Pawlenty's rivals is nicknamed "Mittens".)

Why does he sign it twice? Didn't stick the first time?

Too bad about McCotter.

[Yelnoc]

Iowa straw poll schedule (presumably, these are all in Central Time):

http://iowagop.org/iowagop/?p=635

Iowa Straw Poll Speaking Schedule:
Noon- Program Begins
12:15- Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn delivers remarks
12:20- Governor Terry Branstad delivers remarks
12:30- Chairman Strawn welcomes all candidates on stage (press shot)
12:40- Senator Rick Santorum delivers remarks
1:00- Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds delivers remarks
1:15- Congressman Ron Paul delivers remarks
1:40- Congressman Steve King delivers remarks
1:50- Governor Tim Pawlenty delivers remarks
2:10- Senator Chuck Grassley delivers remarks
2:20- Congresswoman Michele Bachmann delivers remarks
2:40- Congressman Tom Latham delivers remarks
2:50- Congressman Thaddeus McCotter delivers remarks
3:15- Herman Cain delivers remarks

Straw Poll voting closes at 4pm. Chairman Matt Strawn will deliver the Straw Poll results on stage immediately after they’ve been tabulated.

Added.  With that speaking slot, it appears that I seriously undervalued Cain.  Though I wonder if Perry's choice to announce on the same day will steal Cain's thunder?

[I AM REPUBLICAN]

Iowa straw poll schedule (presumably, these are all in Central Time):

Iowa Straw Poll Speaking Schedule:
Noon- Program Begins
12:15- Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn delivers remarks
12:20- Governor Terry Branstad delivers remarks
12:30- Chairman Strawn welcomes all candidates on stage (press shot)
12:40- Senator Rick Santorum delivers remarks
1:00- Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds delivers remarks
1:15- Congressman Ron Paul delivers remarks
1:40- Congressman Steve King delivers remarks
1:50- Governor Tim Pawlenty delivers remarks
2:10- Senator Chuck Grassley delivers remarks
2:20- Congresswoman Michele Bachmann delivers remarks
2:40- Congressman Tom Latham delivers remarks
2:50- Congressman Thaddeus McCotter delivers remarks
3:15- Herman Cain delivers remarks

Straw Poll voting closes at 4pm. Chairman Matt Strawn will deliver the Straw Poll results on stage immediately after they’ve been tabulated.

They have Cain speaking 45 minutes before the straw poll closes. That may be bad for him trying to introduce himself to new voters.

[Mr. Morden]

Colbert is running an ad in Iowa, uring straw pollers to write in "Rick Parry" rather than "Rick Perry":

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61052.html

[Eraserhead]

Bachmann or Paul should win.

Perry will do well as a write-in.

Cain will probably do alright.

Pawlenty and Santorum will do terribly.

[Tender Branson]

This debate starts exactly at what time (eastern time) ?

[RogueBeaver]

This debate starts exactly at what time (eastern time) ?

9 PM.

[Tender Branson]

This debate starts exactly at what time (eastern time) ?

9 PM.

Ahh, thx.

And where can I watch it ? Any live-stream on the Internet ?

[Bacon King]

This debate starts exactly at what time (eastern time) ?

9 PM.

Ahh, thx.

And where can I watch it ? Any live-stream on the Internet ?

The networks usually allow CSPAN to simulcast the debates, so I'd check there first.

[Simfan34]

FOX.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I guess I'll just have to watch it via your live commentary, either during it or after the fact.

[Mr. Morden]

Feel free to continue discussion of the straw poll here, but discussion of the debate should migrate to this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=139427.0

just to keep things cleaner.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

This is an entertaining debate at least. These moderators are REALLY trying to get fights going.

-They incite Bachmann and Pawlenty to take shots at each other for each other and continue this through the whole debate, only hurting themselves.

-they get T-Paw to fight Romney for real and Romney suddenly turns as red as a tomato

-They get Ron Paul, after having basically languished with a handful of questions, to run the gauntlet fighting Santorum, then Bachmann, then Pawlenty.

[Simfan34]

So... Paul up, Huntsman down. Santorum up.

[California8429]

So... Paul up, Huntsman down. Santorum up.

Idk where Paul stands. He sure did energize his base, but pissed off other republicans.

Santorum is up without a doubt. Now what about Cain, Bachmann, and T-Paw?

T-Paw picked a lot of fights, so he better hope it pays off to separate himself from the others. Cain and Bachmann didn't hurt themselves so that's always good.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So... Paul up, Huntsman down. Santorum up.

Paul very much up, Santorum up, Huntsman up (if only because before now he was unknown and could very well be beaten by Karger and Roemer if they were options and know some people know who he is), Pawlenty wayyy down, Bachmann considerably down, Cain neutral, Romney neutral/down, Gingrich up.

[Simfan34]

So... Paul up, Huntsman down. Santorum up.

Idk where Paul stands. He sure did energize his base, but pissed off other republicans.

Santorum is up without a doubt. Now what about Cain, Bachmann, and T-Paw?

T-Paw picked a lot of fights, so he better hope it pays off to separate himself from the others. Cain and Bachmann didn't hurt themselves so that's always good.

Yes, yes. I watched the audience applaud Paul and wondered if any of them were actually Republicans.

[Tender Branson]

You can still vote for 1 day.

Now that the debate is over, is Bachmann still the favorite ?

I think she'll still win this. I´ll post my prediction tomorrow.