Canadian Election Results Thread

[mileslunn]

Here are the Prairie provinces

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Con 46.5%
NDP 27%
Lib 22.9%

Rural Manitoba

Con 63.7%
NDP 24%
Lib 7.4%

Saskatchewan

Rural Saskatchewan

Con 65.7%
NDP 26.7%
Lib 4.9%

Saskatoon (includes the rural portions of ridings that include the city)

Con 53.8%
NDP 37.1%
Lib 6%

Regina (includes the rural portions of ridings that include the city)

Con 47.1%
NDP 34.3%
Lib 15.8%

Southern Saskatchewan (wikipedia)

Con 55.3%
NDP 30.9%
Lib 11%

Northern Saskatchewan (wikipedia)

Con 57.6%
NDP 34.3%
Lib 5.2%

Alberta

Calgary

Con 65.9%
Lib 13.7%
NDP 12.4%

Edmonton (includes all 8 ridings that enter the city including rural portions)

Con 56.1%
NDP 25.6%
Lib 10.4%

Rural Alberta

Con 77.1%
NDP 13.9%
Lib 5.2%

[mileslunn]

Why does everyone include Parry Sound-Muskoka in Northern Ontario? geez. It's hardly northern.

  I agree its not really Northern Ontario, although I think in the Ontario re-distributions whereby they kept the 1996 ridings for Northern Ontario and use the 2003 boundaries for Southern Ontario, Parry-Sound-Muskoka was included.  Nonetheless I gave it with Parry Sound-Muskoka and without.  Certainly in term of voting patterns Parry Sound-Muskoka is more like Southern Ontario as the Tories usually win here much like Rural Southern Ontario and the NDP is quite weak unlike Northern Ontario.  I think Algonquin Park which runs directly to the East of much of the riding is usually seen as the dividing point between North and South.

[mileslunn]

Here is British Columbia

BC Interior

Con 52.3%
NDP 32.9%
Lib 6.6%

Northern BC (PGPR, CPG, and SKV)

Con 51.8%
NDP 36.1%
Lib 4.7%

Southern Interior

Con 52.4%
NDP 31.8%
Lib 7.4%

Vancouver Island

NDP 38.5%
Con 38.4%
Lib 7.9%

Greater Victoria (SGI, Vic, and ESQ-JDF)

NDP 33.7%
Con 33.4%
GRN 22.9%
Lib 9.9%

Rural Vancouver Island

Con 43.6%
NDP 43.4%
Lib 5.8%

Mainland BC

Con 47.4%
NDP 31%
Lib 14.8%

Lower Mainland

Con 45.4%
NDP 30.2%
Lib 18.2%

Greater Vancouver (includes WVSSC and PMM)

Con 43.8%
NDP 30.9%
Lib 19%

BC outside GVRD

Con 47.5%
NDP 34.2%
Lib 7.6%

Fraser Valley & Southern Lower Mainland (wikipedia and DS)

Con 53%
NDP 26.6%
Lib 14.9%

Vancouver & Northern Lower Mainland (wikipedia and DS)

Con 38.8%
NDP 33.3%
Lib 21.1%

Vancouver

NDP 33.1%
Con 31%
Lib 27.7%

GVRD Suburbs

Con 48.3%
NDP 30.2%
Lib 16%

Coastal BC (LWM + VI)

Con 43.5%
NDP 32.4%
Lib 15.5%

North Shore (WVSSC + NV)

Con 47%
Lib 26%
NDP 20%

Eastern Suburbs

Con 43.7%
NDP 42.1%
Lib 9.4%

Surrey (NND, SSWRC, SN & FPK)

Con 43.5%
NDP 30.5%
Lib 20.4%

Fraser Valley (Langley, Abbotsford, & CFC)

Con 62.3%
NDP 22.1%
Lib 10%

[mileslunn]

In the case of Vancouver Island, I agree that strategic voting hurt them in Saanich-Gulf Islands.  However in the other two ridings they failed to win, the demographics are far less favourable than 20 years ago.  In Nanaimo-Alberni, the north side of Nanaimo is the more affluent part while the south side in Nanaimo-Cowichan is the working class part thus the split.  Parksville to Qualicum Beach is full of many seniors and rapidly growing thus the Conservative strength here.  In fact I believe Qualicum Beach has the oldest median age of any Canadian municipality.  The NDP has some strength in resource towns like Port Alberni, but their share of the population is not as large as it once was.  In the case of Vancouver Island North, if you took Comox out, the NDP would have won it in all of the last four elections.  Comox also has a large seniors population, while Courtenay, Campbell River, Port McNeil, and Port Hardy have a slightly rightward tilt, but not by much, while the rest of the riding is heavily NDP.  In fact in the 2005 and 2009 provincial election, the media mistakenly called Comox Valley for the NDP as the Comox results were slower to come in, yet the BC Liberals won both times.  Nanaimo-Cowichan I think is less vulnerable as there isn't the large seniors' population and there is still a strong union base.  If anything Saanich-Gulf Islands is probably the most favourable Conservative riding they didn't win.  While the Gulf Islands lean to the left and Saanich is a real mix, Central Saanich and North Saanich are semi-rural with a weak union base, while Sidney has a large senior's population.  Victoria is really the only Vancouver Island riding the Tories have no chance at winning.  They have some support in the more affluent Oak Bay which goes BC Liberal provincially, but get clobbered in Victoria.

[mileslunn]

Nice to see the NDP win Vancouver, but it's a shame they didn't do better on the island.

  Vancouver is sort of an odd one out.  Much like Toronto it was a three way split.  Ironically the BC Liberals finished slightly ahead in both 2005 and 2009.  The NDP strength is really along the Sky Train route excluding the RAV Line.  Vancouver Centre is the only non-NDP riding the Sky Train passes through while Newton-North Delta is the only NDP riding it doesn't pass through.  In addition the areas in non-NDP ridings for both the RAV Line and Sky Train are largely underground so otherwise the areas where the Sky Train is above ground is generally NDP territory.  I've also tried applying transit types to the GTA.  Otherwise the GO Train ridings are mostly Tory.  The subway ridings were mostly Liberal prior to this election, but now a mix.  In fact this was the first election since 1988 the Tories won any of the Subway ridings.  The Streetcar is more your left leaning ridings although St. Paul's and Toronto Centre went Liberal while Etobicoke-Lakeshore went Tory.

[mileslunn]

I expect the NDP will probably take the lead at some point, although the dynamics are somewhat different as the Tories had a 22 point lead in English Canada and 18 point lead in Ontario thus while the NDP could pull ahead in either it will be a lot less common than it was for the Liberals who were usually competitive in Ontario and not that much stronger in Quebec than the Tories unlike the NDP.  I should note Dion routinely pulled even or ahead right up until the election so for whatever reason it seems the Tories always poll lower in between the writ period.  Whether the NDP will swap positions with the Liberals or not remains to be seen.  Also I expect the most unpopular policies of the Tories to be in the first two years.  As for spending cuts, they will no doubt generate a lot of opposition in Quebec, but I am not sure the impact will be totally negative in Ontario.  Harris had an approval rating close to 50% in his first term and the Liberal spending cuts in the 90s proved quite popular, so a lot depends on whether people perceive them as ideological or simply to get things back on track.  If perceived as the former, it will hurt them a lot, but if the latter it may help them.  It could also hurt them in Atlantic Canada although considering how badly wacked the Liberals got in 1997 over the EI changes I suspect the Tories will be careful to ensure any cuts don't hit the region harder than others to avoid facing losing 2/3 of their seats like the Liberals did in 1997. 

[mileslunn]

Talk about the open holes for the Liberals.  Its amazing that a party that a majority a decade ago is irrelevant in much of the country while a party that barely clung to official party status a decade ago is now competitive in much of the country and even where not competitive at least they are in second and not getting blown out of the water.  I guess that should be a lesson to all parties that you can improve if weak and if in government, don't get too arrogant or what happened to the PCs in 1993 and now the Liberals can happen to your party.

[mileslunn]

Here is the party by percentages,  I coloured in all the ridings they got above a certain percentage as shown below.  First lets start with the Tories.  Please note these are rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent

Tories over 80%.  Only two ridings Wetaskiwin and Crowfoot



Conservatives over 75%.  Other than Portage-Lisgar, all of them are in Alberta.  Portage-Lisgar is the riding of Candace Hoeppner who promised to scrap the gun registry.  Also it was the Tories best showing outside Alberta in 2004 and 2006 so arguably the most Conservative riding outside Alberta



Conservatives over 70%

Mostly in Alberta, but three outside (Souris-Moose Mountain, Portage-Lisgar, and Provencher




Conservatives over 65%:  Mostly in the Prairies.  24 ridings nationally and everyone except Abbotsford which is the in the heart of the Fraser Valley bible belt was in the Prairies



Conservatives over 60%: 40 ridings nationally.  30 were in the Prairies, while 3 in BC, 6 in Ontario and one in New Brunswick.

[mileslunn]

Here is the Tories over 55%.  There were 70 such ridings (1 in NS, 3 in NB, 18 in ON, 7 in MB, 6 in SK, 24 in AB, 10 in BC)



Tories over 50%.  2 in NS, 1 in PEI, 4 in NB, 1 in QC (Maxime Bernier's riding), 40 in ON, 9 in MB, 10 in SK, 25 in AB, and 15 in BC a total of 107 seats



Conservatives over 45%.  134 nationally of which 131 were in English Canada so the majority there while only 3 in Quebec.  By province (3 NS, 1 PEI, 6 NB, 3 QC, 51 ON, 10 MB, 13 SK, 26 AB, 20 BC, and NU)



Cons over 40%.  161 seats so a majority.  The majority west of the Ottawa River + New Brunswick while minority elsewhere in Atlantic Canada and off course Quebec (1 NL, 4 NS, 1 PEI, 7 NB, 4 QC, 69 ON, 10 MB, 13 SK, 28 AB, 24 BC and NU)

[mileslunn]

Here is Tories over 35%.  187 seats nationally, 178 were in English Canada while only 9 in Quebec.  By province (2 NL, 6 NS, 3 PEI, 8 NB, 9 QC, 75 ON, 11 MB, 14 SK, 28 AB, 30 BC, and NU)



Conservatives over 30%.  Only 10 in Quebec, but only 30 in English Canada where they got under 30%.  Of that 7 in Atlantic Canada (4 being in Newfoundland & Labrador), 16 in Ontario (9 in Toronto, Hamilton Centre, 4 in Northern Ontario, and 2 in Ottawa) 3 in Manitoba, and 4 in British Columbia (3 in Vancouver + Victoria)



Conservatives over 25%.  Only 15 in Quebec, but above that in all but 16 in English Canada (2 St. John's Ridings, 2 Halifax area ridings, Acadie-Bathurst, 8 in Toronto, Ottawa Centre, Victoria, and Vancouver East)



Conservatives over 20%.  Only 20 in Quebec, but all but 7 in English Canada (Halifax, Acadie-Bathurst, Parkdale-High Park, Davenport, Trinity-Spadina, Toronto-Danforth, and Vancouver East)

[mileslunn]

Looking great, Miles! One correction, however - I noticed that in your final map, you've included Edmonton-Strathcona as a Conservative-held seat.

I'll edit the post to remove my mention of the correction later.

  I was going percentage of the popular vote, not who won.  In Edmonton-Strathcona the Tories got over 40%, but still lost as it was pretty much a two way race since the Liberals were pretty much non-existent.

[mileslunn]

I will do Tories over 15% and over 10% later.  I know the Tories got over 15% in only 31 in Quebec, but all but two in English Canada (Davenport and Toronto-Danforth were the two they missed and they got 14%) while they got below 10% in 24, all in Quebec.  I will also try to work on the NDP, Liberals, and BQ over the weekend.  Since the Greens were in single digits in most ridings, I won't bother with them.  I can say the Liberals only got above 50% in two ridings which were both in Newfoundland & Labrador and the BQ failed to crack the 40% mark in any riding.

[mileslunn]

Churchill is missing from your >25% map.

Fixed.  Let me know if I missed anything else and I will fix it.  I will do Tories over 15% and over 10% tonight.  ON the weekend I plan to do the NDP and maybe the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois depending on how much time I have.

[mileslunn]

Here is the Conservatives over 15%.  Only two ridings in English Canada where they got under 15% which were Davenport and Toronto-Danforth.  By contrast only 31 in Quebec where they got above 15%.



Here is the Conservatives over 10%.  Every riding in English Canada, they got over 10%, while there were 24 ridings in Quebec where they failed to crack the 10% mark.  There were also some where they even failed to crack the 5% mark.  3% was their worst result in this was in Laurier-Sainte Marie, otherwise Gilles Duceppe's former riding.

[mileslunn]

Here are the NDP results,

NDP over 70% - only St. John's East (interestingly enough, both the Liberals and NDP had their best riding in Newfoundland & Labrador)



NDP over 65%. Only 2 seats, St. John's East and Acadie-Bathurst



NDP over 60%.  Only 5 seats in addition to the 2 above there is also Gatineau, Toronto-Danforth, and Vancouver East

[mileslunn]

Here is the NDP over 55%.  Only 11 such ridings and kind of random.



NDP over 50%.  36 seats  (1 in NL, 2 in NS, 1 in NB, 14 in QC, 10 in ON, 2 in MB, 1 AB, 5 in BC)

[mileslunn]

Here is the NDP over 45% 63 seats, 2 which they didn't win (Elmwood-Transcona and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar)  (AB 1, BC 8, 3 MB, 1 NB, 2 NL, NT, 2 NS, 16 ON, 28 QC, 1 SK)



NDP over 40%, 92 seats (AB 1, BC 11, MB 3, NB 1, NL 2, NT, NS 2, ON 21, QC 47, SK 3) Over half are in Quebec

[mileslunn]

Here is the NDP over 35% 122 seats (2 AB, 15 BC, 4 MB, 1 NB, 2 NL, NT, 4 NS, 26 ON, 60 QC, 7 SK)



NDP over 30% 143 seats (2 AB, 20 BC, 5 MB, 2 NB, 2 NL, NT, 4 NS, 29 ON, 69 QC, 9 SK)

[mileslunn]

Funny facts about MPs names:

There is 4 "Morin" (all NDPers, from Quebec)
3 "Moore" (one NDP, two Conservatives)
3 "Brown" (all Conservatives)
3 "Harris" (one NDP, two Conservatives)
3 "Duncan" (one NDP, one Conservative, one Liberal)

There is 2 "Davies", both NDPers from Vancouver (East and Kingsway).

Aren't there two Harris for the NDP and one for Conservatives?  Also there is a McKay in the Liberals and MacKay in Conservatives.  I think McKay is the Irish spelling and while MacKay is the Scottish if I am not mistaken.  Also two with the surname Weston both from the Conservatives. 

[mileslunn]

Here is the NDP over 25% 170 seats (4 in AB, 24 in BC, 8 in MB, 4 in NB, 5 in NS, 41 in ON, 1 in PEI, 73 in QC, 10 in SK)



Here is the NDP over 20% 217 seats (6 in AB, 31 in BC, 10 in MB, 8 in NB, 2 in NL, 8 in NS, 65 in ON, 1 in PEI, 74 in QC, 12 in SK)

[mileslunn]

Here is the NDP over 15% 267 seats (11 AB, 34 in BC, 12 in MB, All 10 in NB, 5 in NL, NT, 10 in NS, NU, 93 in ON, 1 in PEI, All 75 in QC, All 14 in SK)



Here is the NDP over 10% every riding except Portage-Lisgar and Crowfoot



The NDP got over 9% in every riding in Canada.  18 years ago, the NDP averaged only 7% nationally.  Even in Quebec, they averaged 5% in 2004 and 7% in 2006, so talk about things changing.

[mileslunn]

Here is the Liberals over 55% and also 50% too.  Only 2 seats, Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor and Humber-St. Barbe Baie Verte.  There were many in 2000 and 2004 so shows just how far the party has fallen.



Liberals over 45%  7 seats (Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte, Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls, Random-Burin-St. George's, Cape Breton-Canso, Scarborough-Agincourt, York West)



Liberals over 40% 21 seats (1 in BC, 4 in NL, 1 in NS, 8 in ON, 2 in PEI, 4 in QC, 1 in SK)

[mileslunn]

Here is Liberals over 35% 52 seats (otherwise 2% less than they got in 2004)(1 in BC, 2 in MB, 2 in NB, 5 in NL, 6 in NS, 26 in ON, 3 in PEI, 6 in QC, 1 in SK)



Here is the Liberals over 30% 76 seats (otherwise what they got in 2006 when they were removed from power)(4 in BC, 4 in MB, 3 in NB, 5 in NL, 6 in NS, 38 in ON, 4 in PEI, 10 in QC, 1 in SK, YK)

[mileslunn]

Here is the Liberals over 25% 95 seats (1 in AB (Calgary of all places), 5 in BC, 4 in MB, 3 in NB, 6 in NL, 7 in NS, NU, 48 in ON, 4 in PEI, 14 in QC, 1 in SK, YK)



Liberals over 20% 118 seats (2 in AB, 6 in BC, 5 in MB, 5 in NB, 6 in NL, 7 in NS, NU, 61 in ON, 4 in PEI, 19 in QC, 1 in SK, YK)

[mileslunn]

Amazing how far the Liberals have fallen.  I think a lot has to do with the fact that when you are in the centre, you can appeal to more, but also have less of a firm base.  Chretien for all his flaws was seen as a fairly strong leader while he faced quite weak opponents.  By contrast Martin, Dion, and Ignatieff were much easier to take down while Layton and Harper were both far stronger opponents than anything Chretien ever faced.  In Ontario it seems they still have a strong base in the GTA and could thus win back a whole wack of seats with not too big an increase in their of the popular vote, but once you get beyond the GTA, they are largely irrelevant in most ridings in Ontario.  In Quebec, much the same as what support they do have is largely on the Island of Montreal.  Off course the NDP has to gain a whole wack of votes before they start picking up several seats in Ontario.  Considering that not all Liberals have the NDP as their second choice, their ability to gain will depend heavily on turnout.  I don't think many Tories will swing to the NDP, but if enough are dissatisfied they could stay home much as many Liberals in 2008 did (although many of those showed up in 2011 but switched).  Any gains would have to come from a stronger youth turnout and also making inroads amongst the immigrant community, particularly those of lower income and in the 416 as opposed to the middle class ones who primarily reside in the 905 belt as I suspect those if they aren't already voting Tory, would go Tory before Liberal.  Asides from New Brunswick which went more heavily Tory than the other provinces, the Liberals seem to still have a fairly strong base in this region.  New Brunswick in many ways voted more in line with the provinces west of the Ottawa River rather than East of it.