Canadian Election Results Thread

[mileslunn]

True, Scarborough Southwest has gone NDP, but I am not so sure how well they have done elsewhere.  I know the PCs under Mulroney won seats in Scarborough albeit it was more suburban and whiter than today.  Also Mike Harris won Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough East, and Scarborough Centre, while Rob Ford won all Scarborough wards, so I think it was more of a Liberal stronghold federally than anything else.  As for the NDP gaining amongst Tamils, I agree.  I mentioned earlier the Tories doing well amongst Hindus, this is in reference to an Ipsos Exit poll of 36,000 Canadians whereby amongst Hindus in the 2006 election it was 44% Liberals, 29% Tories, while for Sikhs it was 40% NDP, 37% Liberals, and 17% Conservatives.  There are lots of Hindus from India which is where I think the Tories get a lot of their support from this community.  I suspect their stance on the Tamil refugees probably didn't go over too well with that community.  Since the Tories have gone up since 2006 and the Liberals have cratered, I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories won the Hindu vote.  I think amongst immigrants, they won those from Europe and the Far East while the NDP amongst those from elsewhere although one should be careful about generalizing as I don't think any ethnic group votes as a block.  In fact asides from those from Northern Europe (who the Tories probably got over 50% amongst, they got 48% in English Canada) I don't think any party got above 50% amongst any immigrant group.  Quite a contrast from 2000 when 71% of visible minorities voted Liberal.  In fact the loss of immigrants and Catholics is one of the reasons the Liberals have fallen so far so fast.

[mileslunn]

The emphasis on regional balance is somewhat worrying. I get the feeling that if the Conservatives won a single seat with a total moron in Montreal, said moron would nonetheless be a shoo-in for Cabinet.

Usually most parties figure out which seats are most likely to fall to them in areas they are shut out and thus run stronger candidates.  In the case of Toronto, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, and York Centre were the most likely for the Tories whereas ridings like Don Valley East, Scarborough Centre, or Willowdale weren't so thats why they had stronger candidates in the former in the event they did win only a seat in Toronto.  It is true in Newfoundland & Labrador, their one seat was a surprise, but also they did have a strong candidate and it is unlikely they would have picked up Labrador with an average candidate.  The same for the Liberals as I believe in the past two elections, they've fielded strong candidates in Edmonton Centre as if they were to form government and win only one seat in Alberta, that would likely be it.

[mileslunn]

Could you post the seat count in each region, too? It looks like the Conservatives had a very efficient vote allocation.

Here it is by province.  Actually the Tories got above 50% in 107 out of the 166 seats they won so there were many areas where they won by big margins.  If you take Quebec out of the picture they got 48% in English Canada.  Off course much of that has to do with the fact they are the sole party on the right whereas the left is far more divided.

NL  Lib 4 NDP 2 CON 1 Lib 38%, NDP 33%, CON 28%
NS  CON 4 LIB 4 NDP 3  CON 37% NDP 30% LIB 29%
PEI LIB 3 CON 1  CON 41% LIB 41% NDP 15% (despite winning only one seat the Conservatives actually got 173 votes more than the Liberals in PEI)
NB CON 8 NDP 1 LIB 1 CON 44% NDP 30% LIB 23%
QC NDP 59 LIB 7 CON 5 BQ 4 NDP 43% BQ 23% CON 17% LIB 14%
ON CON 73 NDP 22 LIB 11 CON 44% NDP 26% LIB 25% (Note, Etobicoke Centre which the Conservatives won by 25 votes over the Liberals is still in the process of a recount)
MB CON 11 NDP 2 LIB 1 CON 54% NDP 26% LIB 16%
SK CON 13 LIB 1 CON 56% NDP 32% LIB 9%
AB CON 27 NDP 1 CON 67% NDP 17% LIB 9%
BC CON 21 NDP 12 LIB 2 GRN 1 CON 46% NDP 33% LIB 13% GRN 7%
NORTH CON 2 (YK and NU), NDP 1 (NT)

[mileslunn]

Actually the Conservatives were the only party to get above 50% in the majority of ridings they won.  I believe the NDP got above 50% in around 40% of the ridings they won, while the Liberals in only 2 seats (both in Newfoundland & Labrador) and the BQ and Greens in none.  Even if you go by region, the Conservatives got over 50% (this excludes rounding up, otherwise 49.9% is not counted), 7 seats in Atlantic Canada (2 in NS, 4 in NB, and 1 in PEI), 1 seat in Quebec (Maxime Bernier's riding) 40 seats in Ontario, 9 seats in Manitoba, 10 seats in Saskatchewan, 25 seats in Alberta, and 15 seats in British Columbia.  While it is true vote splitting helped the Conservatives in some ridings, they also party won a majority as they didn't have a lot of wasted votes in Quebec where they did quite poorly.  If you only took the ridings they got over 45%, they would have won 134 seats, while 161 seats at over 40%.  At over 30%, they were only 30 ridings in all of English Canada where they got under 30%, but in Quebec it was 65 ridings.  At under 20%, it was only 7 in English Canada, while 55 in Quebec so if there was any divided it was between Quebec and ROC.  Quebec cleary voted for a left wing government while English Canada favoured the right (I consider the Liberals a centrist party so the Conservatives got more than the NDP + Greens by a long shot in English Canada)

[mileslunn]

I was talking about those GTA regions, where the Tories did very well without particularly large vote margins. Obviously in Alberta they had a lot of surplus votes.

Here is what I got by the GTA region.  Actually in the outer suburbs they generally won by pretty big margins, i.e. Jim Flaherty's riding.  In the 905 belt, there were some close ones, but the NDP was generally weak save Bramalea-Gore-Malton and thus the Tories still averaged close to 45% in their pick ups and the Liberals in the high 30s.  Anyways here is the GTA breakdown by region.

Toronto

Liberal 35% 6 seats
Conservative 31% 8.5 seats (Pickering-Scarborough East straddles the boundary of Toronto)
NDP 31% 8 seats

Durham Regional Municipality

Conservative 50% 4.5 seats, i.e. clean sweep
Liberal 23%
NDP 23%

York Regional Municipality

Conservative 52% 6.5 seats (York-Simcoe half in York region and half Simcoe)
Liberal 27% 1 seat (John McCallum was the lone Liberal from the 905 belt)
NDP 17%

Peel Regional Municipality

Conservative 44% 8 seats clean sweep
Liberal 34%
NDP 19%

Halton Regional Municipality

Conservative 54% 3.5 seats, clean sweep (Wellington-Halton Hills split between Halton)
Liberal 26%
NDP 16%

905 belt (excluding Hamilton-Niagara region)

Conservative 49%
Liberal 28%
NDP 19%

GTA

Conservative 41%
Liberal 31%
NDP 24%

[mileslunn]

It is true in 416, the Tories definitely got some lucky breaks while the Liberals really got some bad breaks there.  In the 905 belt, the Tory wins were pretty large in many cases.  The Peel region is where their vote was very efficient, but in Durham, York, and Halton they got over 50% and won by over 20 points so I wouldn't describe their vote as being efficient here.  The Liberals definitely got screwed over in the GTA big time.  Since their vote wasn't concentrated in any one area, they got a lot of votes which didn't translate into seats.  The NDP was mostly concentrated in the urban core and with a three way split in Scarborough while the Tories were mostly in the suburbs, while they fared poorly in the downtown area.

[mileslunn]

Assuming the Liberal vote collapses which I think is a big "if" at this point as with over half of the NDP caucus being from Quebec, many being young and inexperienced, and the fact Quebec can swing en masse towards a party and then take it away next election, I think it is a bit premature to predict the demise of the Liberals yet. 

In Toronto, Scarborough Centre is the only Tory held riding I think the NDP has a good shot at.  Don Valley East is possible, but you would need a much stronger swing.  It is somewhat of a mixed riding and includes demographics that are favourable to the NDP, but also those for the Tories.

As for the Liberal ridings, I agree Toronto Centre looks good for a pickup and in fact if it weren't for Rosedale it might already be NDP.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown here.  Although since more live outside Rosedale then inside I could see Rosedale going heavily Tory while the NDP winning the rest of the riding.  Markham-Unionville is a 905 riding so if the Liberals lose this, it would be to the Tories.  Besides if BC politics is any indication the Chinese community tends to lean more right than left unlike the South Asian community.  Scarborough-Guildwood, we will need to await the poll by poll breakdowns since although the NDP did well here, the lakefront areas are more wealthy so if those are already going Tory, then a good sign for the NDP, but if the Liberal strength is still in this region, then not so much.

[mileslunn]

Continuing the last post, Scarborough-Agincourt seems also more favourable to the NDP than Tories, but for whatever reason, Jim Karygiannis is very popular in his riding despite the fact he is a complete sleazebag.  A lot will depend on whether he runs again or not.  If he runs again, I think the Liberals will hold out, but if not then it is anybody's guess.

In terms of Etobicoke North, that is a tough one.  Has a large immigrant community and is fairly working class in contrast with the other two Etobicoke ridings where the NDP has almost no chance at winning.  By the same token, it went solidly for Rob Ford in the last municipal election, it went PC provincially in both 1995 and 1999 and the Tories federally have consistently been in second place, so could go either way if you ask me.

York West definitely favours the NDP over the Tories by a wide margin.  This includes York university and the Jane and Finch area.  Also the Tories usually only get in the teens or low 20s at best.  Yes, I know it borders Tory ridings like York Centre and Vaughan and Thornhill which the Tories won by a landslide, but the demographics of those ridings is quite different so I don't think you can assume the Tory strength will spillover here.  Those are all middle class ridings and mostly white and the 30% visible minority population they have is mostly middle class.  By contrast, York West is 70% visible minority and one of the poorest ridings in Canada, never mind it has the university which probably helps the NDP too.  Also the Tories have made strong inroads amongst the Jewish community and to a lesser extent the Italian community, but both have a large middle class community.  This riding lacks this.

[mileslunn]

Finally there is St. Paul's which is probably the toughest to predict.  One of the wealthiest ridings in Canada so should favour the Tories, but has the highest percentage of those with university degrees which is bad news for the Tories so tough to call.  Sort of like Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre out West which stayed Liberal despite being obliterated in the West and considering the Liberals only got 13% and I doubt they will fall below that in Ontario, I would guess this will stay Liberal as long as the party continues to exist.  Also similiar to Montgomery County in Maryland and Manhattan and San Francisco which all vote heavily Democrat but I doubt they would go for a social democratic party.  They are otherwise liberal, not socialist areas. 

I look forward to seeing the poll by poll breakdown.  For those on the blue team New Brunswick, Southern Ontario, the Prairies, and parts of BC should be very blue and I also suspect they won most of the counties and municipalities in Mainland Rural Nova Scotia and even in the Appalaches-Chaudieres region of Quebec.

For the orange team, I suspect you will see lots of it in Quebec and much the way they won most ridings, probably most RCMs and municipalities also went NDP.  Also lots in Northern Ontario and some in Vancouver Island, while elsewhere their support is largely confined to the urban core meaning a fair number of seats, but not too many municipalities let alone counties.

For the Red team, Newfoundland & Labrador and PEI will be your only bright spots.  In fact looking at the Liberal vote by municipality, poll, or region will probably be pretty depressing for our Liberal friends in most parts of the country.

[mileslunn]

I heard the NDP won more polls than the Liberals in Toronto Centre, as the Tories won Rosedale and the NDP won the rest of the riding, so the Liberals won the riding by finishing 2nd in both areas.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened in Vancouver Centre.  The Tories are strong in Coal Harbour and Yaletown where you have a lot of the expensive condos, while the NDP more in the West End where there is the large gay community and a lot of unmarried apartment dwellers.  Also possible to see a similiar scenario in Richmond-Arthabaska as it is in between L'Estrie which the NDP swept and the Appalaches-Chaudieres which went mostly Conservative. 

[mileslunn]

Its true that the Tories won Etob. North in '95 and '99 - but in each case they won it with just about the low vote share of any riding they won in the province on an almost perfect three-way split. On top of that - that area has changed a lot demographically since the 90s and is now much poorer and more "visible minority" than it was then. I think I read that Etobicoke North is the most Muslim riding in Canada now! Its true that Rob Ford is from that area (well actually he's from the richer more central part of Etobicoke - but he was elected there) - but if he zillions of robo-called etc...were not enough to even come close to electing a Tory in this election when Ford's popularity is still in a honeymoon phase - then I'm sceptical what impact he'll have in 2015 when he may not even be mayor anymore and will in any case have accumulated a lot of the negative baggage that comes from being in power.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Etob.-Lakeshore for the NDP. That area actually went NDP federally in 1972 and came close to going NDP throughout the 70s and 80s. Provincially it was represented by Ruth Grier of the NDP for many years. The area closer to the lake is very working class. I think the Liberal vote was very inflated from having Ignatieff as the candidate - four years from now the NDP could be the main opposition to the Tories and the Liberal vote could collapse. in that context anything could happen.

I agree on Etobicoke North, but I would be careful about Etobicoke-Lakeshore.  Although it may have gone NDP in the past, it went PC in 1984 and 1988 when Patrick Boyer held the riding and I believe the Liberals came in second both times.  Likewise it went PC provincially in 1995 and 1999 and unlike Etobicoke North, the PCs got in the upper 40s.  Also I am not so sure how big an effect Ignatieff had as in the past five elections it has been one of the weaker Liberal showings in Toronto and one of the sronger Tory showings (in 2000 I took the PC + Alliance vote).  This area is farily white and with an above average income although not as wealthy as Mississauga South which is clearly a Liberal/Tory battleground.  I agree the Tories could lose this, but it would be to the Liberals not NDP.  It is only 20% visible minority, although 40% are immigrants, but many are Eastern European immigrants, particulary Polish, Ukrainian, and Hungarian who have been living in Canada for over 30 years and according to an Ipsos exit poll the NDP won amongst immigrants who came in the last ten years, but the Tories amongst those who have lived in Canada for over ten years.  Likewise average imcones amongst immigrants who came prior to 1980 is generally higher than that of native born Canadians, by contrast incomes amongst immigrants who have arrived in the last ten years is only 2/3 of what a native Canadian makes thus why they might be more inclined to vote NDP.

[mileslunn]

Adding to those who talk about the NDP taking many former Liberal seats in Toronto, I would be careful here.  In BC you have a left/right split and the city Vancouver pretty much splits evenly between the BC Liberals and BC NDP, so if the Liberal vote implodes I suspect you would see a similiar scenario in Toronto.  Also I don't buy the idea the NDP will necessarily replace the Liberals.  Outside Quebec, the NDP lead over the Liberals is much smaller and as we have seen in the past Quebec can swing massively in favour of a certain party only to take it away at a minute's notice.  For one thing, Jack Layton will face the following challenge; does he give into Quebec nationalist's demands and alienate his supporters in English Canada, not give into Quebec and lose badly there or find a happy medium like Mulroney tried to do and lose in both.  Remember the Bloc Quebecois and Reform Party were both offshots of the Mulroney PC coalition as many of his Western supporters felt he pandered too much to Quebec while many in Quebec felt he didn't do enough.  I am not saying this will happen, but it certainly could.  Also if the Liberals pull ahead nationally, I expect much of the centre-left vote in Ontario to swing back to them as they are more concerned about defeating the Tories and care less about which party it is.  Also the Tories destroyed Dion and Ignatieff through their attack ads and I assume they will use them against the NDP although probably the party as a whole and some of its members rather than Layton who is well known and fairly popular.  Considering how effective they were against the Liberals, they could work against the NDP.  Also the Liberal Party in many ways has a stronger opposition team.  Bob Rae, unlike Dion or Ignatieff is good at ripping the Tories apart so if he is interim leader I suspect he will do a good job of opposing them.  On finance, Ralph Goodale, Scott Brison, and John McCallum are far superior to any NDP MP, while on health care, you have Kirsty Duncan and Carolyn Bennett who are both former doctors so if on the major issues the Liberals are a more effetive opposition than the NDP that could help them.  As for my personal bias, I am a Democrat supporter in the US and this site is a US site thus why I am listed as a Democrat supporter, but in Canada I have been eligible to vote since 2000 and have voted for both the Tories and Liberals although I won't say which elections I voted for which.  I also tend to look at my local candidate too.  Still I try to look at things from a non-objective point of view, not my personal bias.  After all I was quite happy to see the NDP wipe out the Bloc Quebecois, but that doesn't mean I think the Bloc cannot rebound although I hope they don't.

[mileslunn]

Doesn't matter if you voted Liberal or Tory, you're wrong either way ;-)

Considering those are the only two parties to have ever former government, it must mean many other Canadians are wrong too.

[mileslunn]

This was a historic election.  With the decimation of the Liberals, Canada does indeed seem likely headed towards a social democratic-conservative polarization like that in the UK and Western Europe.  This was of course a long-time goal of the NDP: they were very much inspired by the Labour Party.  And Harper has indeed united the right side of the spectrum - Reform, PC and "blue Liberals."  Whatever reservations there were from "socially liberal and fiscally conservative" business types about Harper seems to have evaporated.

British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba also have similiar polarization at the provincial level.  I suspect both parties wanted this as the Tories have a better chance of winning against the NDP than Liberals thus if Harper's goal was to make the Tories the natural governing party this would make it easier.  Likewise, if the Liberals are gone, the NDP can win at least sometimes.

[mileslunn]

And are the charges that the NDP is now beholden to Quebec now that over half of its caucus is from there true or not?

It goes without saying that all parties tend to be more sensitive to the needs of the regions of the country where the bulk of their support comes from. The NDP will inevitably be more "beholden" to the following: Quebecers, women, younger people, visible minorities, people with lower incomes, people who work in the public sector, union members etc... The Tories on the other hand are "beholden" to the following: Albertans, rural people, older men, rich people, evangelical Christians, Bay St.

Tell me something i didn't already know. Quebecers tend to have very leftwing view son most issues. All the NDP has to do to "represent" Quebec in Parliament is to keep on being itself!

Partially true although a successful party use triangulation.  The Tories would throw a bone to their base every now and then, but much of their focus was on the swing voters who might vote Tory but weren't a lock.  By contrast the Liberals spent too much time focusing on their base and not enough on the swing voters thus why they continued to decline.  The Tories off course ignored those who would never vote them.  If the NDP is to succeed, they need to use a similiar strategy although from the opposite side of the spectrum.  While Quebec is more left wing than the rest of Canada, it doesn't always vote for left wing parties.  The ADQ who were pretty right wing nearly won in 2007 and back in 1984 and 1988, Quebec went for the Mulroney PCs who were centre-right so I think the success of the NDP was due a to a cominbation of liking Jack Layton personally and the dissatisfaction with the alternatives.  I think either the Tories or Liberals could win big in Quebec if they had a leader who was well liked there and had policies that were popular.  I don't think Quebec as that much more left wing than the 80s.  Compared to the 50s when the Union Nationale won, yes and it is true more of those voters were still alive in the 80s, but Quebec swung hard to the left in the 60s and has been so since then.  The only change is some of the holdouts have died off thus causing the right wing base to dwindle.  Also the right wing in Quebec today is more libertarian whereas in the 60s they were mostly socially conservative Catholics.  Off course both were in a minority in their time and not large enough to win more than a handful of seats outside their core constituencies.

[mileslunn]

Believe it or not, some of the Quebec Tory MPs of the 80s were quite left wing. Look at current BQ MP Louis Plamondon who got his start with the Tories of the 80s.

  Its true a lot of the nationalist who supported Mulroney were on the left, although some were on the right too i.e. Jean-Pierre Blackburn (who was a Harper cabinet minister until recently), Pierrette Venne (was kicked out of the BQ and generally at odds with the party), and Nic Leblanc (ran for the BQ in 1993, switched to the Canadian Alliance in 2000).  In fact that was part of the reason the Mulroney coalition imploded so spectacularly in 1993 as there was no way you could hold together a coalition that diverse.  One that spreads from Blue Liberals to Reformers is possible, but not Left wing Nationalist in the same caucus as your Western libertarians and social conservatives.  In addition back in the early days, not all Bloc MPs were on the left.  Under Bouchard they were more of a sovereigntists party than a left wing one.  It was more under Duceppe that they moved to the left. 

[mileslunn]

Looking at the results themselves many make some sense, but I do have some questions which hopefully others can answer.

1.  Why have the Conservatives gained so heavily in Manitoba.  They got 39% in 2004 and 54% in the last election, otherwise a 15% jump more so than Ontario.  They have an NDP government that is reasonably popular, they are still a have not province, and there doesn't seem to be any issue that would drive them towards the Conservatives unlike Saskatchewan which has a strong resource sector, a have province, and has a popular premier who is centre-right.

2.  How come the Liberals held their ground in university towns like Guelph and Kingston & the Islands.  I know those cities are more liberal than the surrounding ridings, but it seems odd the NDP didn't gain there and that the Liberals didn't implode like they did elsewhere in Ontario

3.  What is with Quebec swinging en masse towards a certain party be in the PCs in 1984, BQ in 1993, ADQ in 2007, or NDP in 2011.  You don't see those type of wild swings in English Canada very often.  I know Quebec leans more to the left than the rest of Canada but not by the degree the results suggests.


4.  Since 2004, it appears the vote percentage has been fairly consistent with only minor changes in Ottawa unlike elsewhere.  Is it because they are more politically engaged thus more firm in their views or is there another reason the party support is relatively consistent in Ottawa.

If anyone has the answers to these, it would be greatly appreciated.

[mileslunn]

Well, the OVR are out... just  not online.  We had a meeting today, and the NDP candidate in Ottawa South showed me the poll by poll results, and we won 3 polls and tied 2 others! (that's big news for that riding)

Any idea when they will be online.  I went to do the county by county results as well as municipality by municipality as I did for the 2008 election

[mileslunn]

There's your answer. Note that the NDP vote share didn't pick up much in Nova Scotia, either.

True, but the NDP is not very popular in Nova Scotia so it makes sense the Tories would do well much like BC and Ontario (here it was the Liberals, but the NDP did bad either way) in the 90s and Saskatchewan in 2004 and 2006.  However, the NDP did alright in the 90s in Saskatchewan when Roy Romanow was premier and quite popular.  In Manitoba I thought the NDP was fairly popular thus why the heavy swing towards the Tories.  And once the NDP is turfed, do you think Manitoba will be like BC where the Tories maintain a strong base but decline somewhat.  In the last four elections when the NDP was out of power provincially they were unable to match the 49% the Canadian Alliance got in 2000.

[mileslunn]

Here are some breakdowns I got so far.  These are different regions and in cases where ridings overlapped, I put them in whichever one was a better fit.

Canada

Atlantic Canada

Con 37.9%
NDP 29.5%
Lib 29.3%

Maritimes (excludes Newfounland & Labrador)

Con 40.1%
NDP 28.8%
Lib 27.3%

English Canada

Con 47.7%
NDP 26.4%
Liberal 20.6%

Eastern English Canada (Atlantic Canada + Ontario i.e. the Liberal former strongholds)

Con 43.3%
NDP 26.3%
Lib 26.0%

Eastern Canada (Everything east of the Manitoba/Ontario border)

Con 33.6%
NDP 32.2%
Lib 21.7%

Central Canada (Ontario + Quebec)

Con 33.1%
NDP 32.6%
Lib 20.8%

Western Canada (excludes the North)

Con 54.7%
NDP 26.5%
Lib 11.9%

Prairies

Con 62.0%
NDP 21.7%
Lib 10.7%

Saskitoba

Con 54.8%
NDP 28.9%
Lib 12.7%

Northern Canada

Con 36.4%
NDP 27.7%
Lib 26.4%

[mileslunn]

Here is Atlantic Canada breakdown within the provinces

Newfoundland & Labrador

Newfoundland (excludes Labrador)

Lib 37.8%
NDP 33.2%
Con 27.7%

Rural Newfoundland & Labrador

Lib 50.8%
Con 32.4%
NDP 15.5%

St. John's (the ridings the city itself will have to wait for the poll breakdowns)

NDP 60.2%
Con 21.8%
Lib 17.0%

Avalon Peninsula

NDP 46.2%
Con 27.5%
Lib 25.2%

Nova Scotia

Mainland Nova Scotia (excludes Cape Breton Island ridings)

Con 37.2%
NDP 32.4%
Lib 26.2%

Rural Nova Scotia (excludes the four Halifax area ridings)

Con 43.7%
Lib 30.0%
NDP 22.3%

Halifax

NDP 42.7%
Lib 27.2%
Con 25.8%

Cape Breton Island

Lib 43.1%
Con 34.3%
NDP 19.3%

Rural Mainland Nova Scotia

Con 47.0%
Lib 25.4%
NDP 23.4%

PEI

Rural PEI (excludes Charlottetown)

Con 43.8%
Lib 41.4%
NDP 12.4%

New Brunswick

Urban New Brunswick (Saint John + Moncton-Rivierview-Dieppe)

Con 41.8%
NDP 29.6%
Lib 24.7%

Rural New Brunswick

Con 44.5%
NDP 29.9%
Lib 22.0%

Northern New Brunswick (MDR, Mir, AB, BJ, and MRD)

NDP 34.2% (got slightly more votes than the Conservatives)
Con 34.2%
Lib 28.4%

Southern New Brunswick (the remaining ridings)

Con 54.7%
NDP 24.9%
Lib 16.1%

Francophone New Brunswick (MDR, AB, and Beausejour)

NDP 39.1%
Con 29.1%
Lib 28.8%

Francophone + Bilingual New Brunswick (includes Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe)

NDP 36.2%
Con 30.9%
Lib 29.5%

Anglophone New Brunswick (all Anglophone majority ridings save Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe)

Con 54.4%
NDP 24.6%
Lib 17.0%

Anglophone + Bilingual New Brunswick (includes Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe)

Con 50.9%
NDP 25.4%
Lib 19.7%

[mileslunn]

Now here is Quebec.  There are some overlapping ones.  I also tried to use the divisions from DemocraticSpace and Election Prediction and Wikipedia, so if it says Wikipedia it is those ridings and EPP for Election prediction and DP for Democratic Space

Eastern Quebec

NDP 34.3%
BQ 29.0%
Con 21.6%
Lib 13.2%

Eastern Quebec (wikipedia)

NDP 34.1%
Con 27.6%
BQ 25.2%
Lib 11.2%

Appalaches-Chaudieres

Con 45.6%
NDP 32.5%
BQ 13.2%
Lib 6.9%

Gaspesie-Appalaches

Con 35.2%
NDP 33.3%
BQ 20.1%
Lib 9.6%

Eastern Townships (wikipedia)

NDP 42.0%
BQ 23.5%
Con 22.3%
Lib 10.2%

Eastern Townships (EPP)

NDP 43.4%
BQ 28.7%
Con 14.5%
Lib 11.2%

L'Estrie

NDP 45.7%
BQ 26.8%
Con 14.9%
Lib 10.6%

Monteregie

NDP 45.2%
BQ 27.7%
Con 12.5%
Lib 11.0%

Island of Montreal

NDP 38.3%
Lib 27.3%
BQ 18.1%
Con 13.3%

West Island (EPP)

NDP 34.5%
Lib 32.5%
Con 20.2%
BQ 9.2%

Eastern Montreal

NDP 48.6%
BQ 33.1%
Lib 9.8%
Con 5.5%

Eastern Montreal (wikipedia)

NDP 46.2%
BQ 30.3%
Lib 13.8%
Con 6.9%

Northern Montreal

Lib 35.4%
NDP 32.0%
BQ 20.9%
Con 9.5%

Laval

NDP 44.4%
Lib 20.4%
BQ 19.5%
Con 13.2%

Laurentides

NDP 48.3%
BQ 29.6%
Lib 10.0%
Con 9.5%

Outaouis

NDP 56.1%
Lib 15.9%
Con 15.1%
BQ 11.2%

Lanaudiere

NDP 48.2%
BQ 30.9%
Con 9.6%
Lib 8.3%

Centre du Quebec

NDP 44.1%
BQ 31.1%
Con 13.0%
Lib 8.7%

Quebec City

NDP 42.3%
Con 26.8%
BQ 20.4%
Lib 8.4%

Capitale Nationale

NDP 42.4%
Con 22.5%
BQ 20.5%
Lib 8.1%

Nord du Quebec

NDP 41.5%
BQ 26.5%
Con 24.7%
Lib 5.3%

Saguenay

NDP 37.2%
Con 34.6%
BQ 22.8%
Lib 3.8%

Quebec outside Island of Montreal

NDP 44.1%
BQ 24.9%
Con 17.7%
Lib 10.3%

I'll do Ontario later today.  These are just meant to get an idea of how the different areas of the provinces went on the whole.

[mileslunn]

Some surprises include the NDP winning northern New Brunswick with just one seat (wow!) and doing better in the rest of Quebec compared to Montreal.

  A lot of that has to do with the obscenely large margins Yvon Godin won by.  While some were certainly genuinely NDP votes, I think a fair number were personal votes considering he won in 2000 when the NDP was much weaker.  In fact if you took his riding out, the Conservatives would have gotten 47.6% in New Brunswick making it their best province outside the Prairies, otherwise beating out both BC and Ontario.  The NDP would have gotten 24.4% while the Liberals would have gotten 23.8%, otherwise his riding really pushed the NDP up in New Brunswick.  It could also be argued Egmont did the same for the Tories in PEI who got 173 votes more than the Liberals yet won only one seat.  Also in Saskatchewan, the Liberals got under 9% vs. the NDP's 32% yet due to Ralph Goodale's popularity, the Liberals won a seat but the NDP did not.  In smal provinces if you have a popular candidate in one riding it can skew the results whereas in large provinces things tend to balance out more.


In the case of the NDP doing better outside the Island of Montreal, not a total surprise as the surge as strongest amongst Francophones.  I suspect amongst Francophones only they did better in Montreal than elsewhere.  They did surprisingly well amongst Anglophones, although considering that many are quite wealthy, I think the NDP's ability for growth amongst them is limited.  In fact it appears a large number of Anglophone Liberals swung over to the Tories whereas amongst Francophones they lost votes.  Also North Montreal is where the Liberals still finished ahead so it appears the Liberals maintained their lead amongst Allophoness.  Unlike in the GVRD and GTA neither the NDP or Tories really targeted the ethnic community too heavily in Montreal so it will be interesting to see what happens next time around.  I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP gains heavily amongst the ethnic voters in Montreal.  It will also be interesting to see how much time Jason Kenney spends in Montreal as he spent a lot of time in the GTA and GVRD but not much in Montreal and in many ways he was the key architect behind the Tory breakthrough amongst ethnic voters.

[mileslunn]

Okay, here is Ontario in the 416 and 905 area codes, otherwise the Golden Horseshoe

Toronto (416 area code only)

Lib 34.7%
Con 31.0%
NDP 30.7%

Ontario outside 416 area code

Con 47.4%
NDP 24.5%
Lib 23.2%

Etobicoke

Lib 39.1%
Con 38.8%
NDP 19.0%

Scarborough (excludes Pickering-Scarborough East)

Lib 33.7%
Con 33.0%
NDP 30.4%

Suburban Toronto (wikipedia)

Lib 36.6%
Con 36.5%
NDP 24.2%

Central Toronto (wikipdia)

NDP 37.2%
Lib 32.8%
Con 25.4%

Durham Regional Municipality (includes Pickering-Scarborough East)

Con 50.2%
NDP 22.7%
Lib 22.5%

York Regional Municipality (includes all of York-Simcoe)

Con 52%
Lib 26.7%
NDP 16.8%

Peel Regional Muncipality (Excludes Caledon from Dufferin-Caledon)

Con 43.7%
Lib 34%
NDP 19.2%

Brampton (Includes all of Bramalea-Gore-Malton and excludes MBS)

Con 42.3%
Lib 30.7%
NDP 23.6%

Mississauga (excludes BGM and includes all of MBS)

Con 44.6%
Lib 36.2%
NDP 16.3%

Mississauga, Brampton, and Oakville

Con 44.6%
Lib 33.6%
NDP 18.6%

Southern Durham & York (wikipedia)

Con 50%
Lib 27.8%
NDP 18.7%

Halton Regional Municipality (excludes Halton Hills from Wellington-Halton Hills)

Con 53.6%
Lib 26.5%
NDP 16.2%

Hamilton (entire city but excludes the portion in Niagara West-Glanbrook)

NDP 40.4%
Con 37.7%
Lib 17.5%

Hamilton City Core (includes the three NDP ridings only in the city)

NDP 49.4%
Con 32.2%
Lib 14.6%

Niagara Regional Municipality

Con 50.6%
NDP 27.6%
Lib 17%


Hamilton-Niagara

Con 44.4%
NDP 33.8%
Lib 17.3%

The 905 Region (only the GTA portion, excludes the Hamilton-Niagara portion)

Con 49%
Lib 28.3%
NDP 18.8%

Burlington, Hamilton & Niagara (wikipedia)

Con 45.6%
NDP 31.9%
Lib 18%

GTA

Con 41.1%
Lib 31.1%
NDP 24%

905 Belt

Con 47.9%
Lib 25.5%
NDP 22.5%

Ontario outside GTA

Con 46.8%
NDP 26.8%
Lib 21.3%

Golden Horseshoe

Con 41.6%
Lib 29%
NDP 25.6%

[mileslunn]

Here is Ontario outside the GTA

Midwestern Ontario

Con 50.1%
Lib 23.4%
NDP 21.4%

Kitchener-Waterloo Region

Con 47.4%
Lib 26.5%
NDP 21.5%

London (three city ridings only)

Con 39%
NDP 32.3%
Lib 25%

Southwestern Ontario

Con 45.4%
NDP 33.5%
Lib 17.4%

519 Area code

Con 48%
NDP 26.9%
Lib 20.7%

Essex County (excludes Leamington which is Chatham-Kent-Essex)

NDP 45.5%
Con 38.6%
Lib 12.8%

Windsor (includes Tecumseh which is in Windsor-Tecumseh)

NDP 52%
Con 32.7%
Lib 12%

Central Ontario (705 area code)

Con 54.9%
NDP 17.9%
Lib 15.4%

Central Ontario (DS)

Con 55.1%
NDP 21.1%
Lib 16.1%

Central Ontario (wikipedia)

Con 55.4%
NDP 19.7%
Lib 16.5%

Northern Ontario (includes Parry Sound-Muskoka)

NDP 41.6%
Con 35.6%
Lib 18.9%

Southern Ontario

Con 45.1%
Lib 25.8%
NDP 24.4%

Northern Ontario (DS)

NDP 43.9%
Con 32.9%
Lib 19.9%

Ottawa (amalgamated version)

Con 41.7%
Lib 30.9%
NDP 23%

Eastern Ontario (Wikipedia and DS)

Con 53%
Lib 21.3%
NDP 19.7%

613 area code

Con 47.6%
Lib 25.8%
NDP 21.3%