Canadian Election Results Thread

[mileslunn]

Its true outside Quebec, the Tories were quite strong.  I should also note in the English speaking parts of New Brunswick they averaged over 50% so sort of following the national party.  Likewise in Ontario minus the 416 area code, they got 47%, while 45% for just Southern Ontario.  Another interesting tidbit is since 2004, the results in New Brunswick have almost always been very close to what they were in Ontario which I never really understood as the two provinces are so different.  New Brunswick is Canada's only bilingual province, it is also very rural with only some smaller cities, while Ontario is very urban, has a large immigrant community which New Brunswick lacks, and has Canada's largest city.

On a final note, I look forward to seeing the poll by poll breakdown.  We should do some maps like we did last time around for both municipalities, counties, and polls.  Southern Ontario, Western Canada, and New Brunswick will probably be pretty depressing for those on the left and also expect Rural Nova Scotia to be a lot bluer than last time around, although I wonder if the unpopularity of the provincial governments hurt the Tories last time around while the NDP this time around.  Quebec off course will have way more orange than last time around while less red and blue and way less tourquoise. 

[mileslunn]

Ominous trends for Liberal Irwin Cotler in Mount Royal (Pierre Trudeau's old seat, once considered the most Liberal in Canada):

1999 by-election: 92%
2000: 81%
2004: 76%
2006: 65%
2008: 56%
2011: 41%

Cotler beat the Conservative in 2011 by just under 6 points. If the Liberals continue to degenerate, is Mount Royal a reasonably likely Conservative pick-up in 2015?


Also, anyone else have some interesting riding trivia?

Tough to tell, al lot also depends on whether the Liberals rebound or disappear.  This is a pretty wealthy riding so I suspect in an NDP-Tory battle, the Tories would win, but in a Liberal-Tory battle the Liberals would win.

[mileslunn]

...but the NDP came fourth in the Yukon.

After possessing this seat from 1987-2000 (by NDP's then-leader for the most part).  Funny how trends shift around almost at random in Canada.

North of the 60th parallel, people tend to vote more for candidates rather than party.  In Southern Canada it is a different story, but in Northern Canada, any party can win if they have a strong candidate.

[mileslunn]

The NDP actually came out of no where to almost win heavily Sikh Bramalea-Gore-Malton and they picked up heavily South Asian ridings in suburban Vancouver like Newton-North Delta and Surrey North. Scarborough-Rouge River also went NDP in a shock upset (NDP vote went from 13% to 40%!!) and that seat is 89% (no typo) foreign-born and heavily Tamil (as is the new NDP MP). So for all the talk about Tory inroads in the immigrant communities - there was also an under-reported NDP story happening.

But yeah, I hate when people are referring to the GTA, and call it Toronto. Big difference.

But, going back to the Liberal collapse - more people should be talking about Mississauga-BramptonPeel region has gone entirely Tory, and by a far wider swing than Toronto. The Tory takeover of Brampton, at the very least, could be evidence that their targeting minorities strategy has worked, if only among the Indians. Or that they were right about immigrants only voting Liberal out of nostalgia.

The Tories tend to do best amongst those from the Far East (Chinese, Koreans, Filipinos and Vietnamese) while the South Asians split more along religious lines with the Hindus leaning to the right and Sikhs and Muslims more to the left.  Those from the Middle East, Africa, Latin American and the Caribbean tend to lean more left so no surprise they would switch to the NDP in the face of the collapse of the Liberals.  Amongst those from Europe, it seems the Tories did well amongst the Italians and Polish, while the Portuguese went more the NDP and the Greeks split fairly evenly.  Those from Northern Europe such as the Dutch and Germans were already going largely Tory while the British were polarized between the NDP and Tories much like in Britain.  Otherwise those who voted Labour in Britain probably went NDP while those who went Conservative ibefore immigrating probably stayed Conservative.  In the case of Bramalea-Gore-Malton it is more Sikh than anything.  In BC, at the provincial level, Surrey goes staunchly NDP in the areas where South Asians are largest so not a real surprise here.  Also an Ipsos poll showed the Tories did well amongst Hindus in the 2006 election, but placed third amongst Sikhs and Muslims

[mileslunn]

Why did the NDP do so well in Quebec, while the Bloc collapsed, and why did the Liberals just collapse period?  Just asking.

In the case of the Bloc Quebecois, many in Quebec realized they were useless as sovereignty will be achieved through electing a PQ government provincially and a referendum.  This was not the first close call to being obliterated.  In 2003, it appeared the Liberals under Paul Martin would obliterate the Bloc, but they were revived thanks to the sponsorship scandal.  In 2008, it looked like the Tories would do the same, but their comments on the arts cuts as well as the perception they were too right wing for Quebec saved the Bloc.  This time around there wasn't much to attack the NDP with.  Prior to this election the only thing standing in their way was the fact the NDP favoured a highly centralized government, but they abandoned this in the Sherbrooke declaration.

As for the Liberals, once the NDP pulled ahead in Quebec, many on the left who were more concerned with defeating Harper than voting for any particular party switched to the NDP.  Likewise many Blue Liberals, particularly in Ontario were spooked by the thought of an NDP lead coalition so they bolted to the Tories.  The Liberals actually ran a decent campaign, but being in the centre and having a leader who was less popular than either Layton or Harper made them vulnerable.  Likewise Ignatieff didn't perform that well in the debates.  Had he done well in the debates, I suspect the party would have done much better than they did.

[mileslunn]

In politics, all things are fleeting...My theory is 100% absolutely correct, until it is wrong....

That being said, i do think an Ontario/Western Canada political axis has a chance to survive because it is a logical alliance based upon shared interest and positions within Canada.

Western Canada is the economic engine that drives the nation, and is likely to be so for the foreseeable future, Ontario, while perhaps not the leader, at least is not an economic anchor - with enlightened leadership they have a good shot at a return to growth and prosperity.

A set of low tax, pro-growth policies are generally in alignment with the interest of both Ontario and Western Canada, while the opposite economic philosophy of high taxes and a greater role for the state are not.

To the degree that Canada as a nation embarks upon large national projects and programs, these programs will be disproportionately paid for by The West and Ontario, and the additional taxation levied on the West and Ontario will accrue to the benefit of (mostly) Quebec. - This is just an economic reality.

I would argue that the West and Ontario are natural allies or at least not natural enemies in the way the The West and Quebec are.

That may be so at the national level (though there are bound to be disagreements here), but is it true at the party level?

The Conservative Party won its majority simply by making inroads in the 905 and outer 416 areas. Many of those voters are rather lukewarm and voted just based on economic concerns (and on this the Liberals should not have ceded ground so easily). The Reform/Alliance heartland in the west is also enthusiastic about social issues. Sooner or later there will be disagreements within the caucus if Harper decides to abandon hot button social issues to strengthen support in Ontario or if he needs to pander to that same Reform/Alliance base to extract money. If the decision makers are too dominated by easterners then I won't be surprised if the Alberta Wildrose Alliance enters federal politics. Then everything the right has done in the past 20 years disappears.

Harper has iron control over his caucus for now, but there is no clear successor once the time for him to go comes (or if he is forced out once the caucus views him as a liability like Mulroney or Thatcher). In the absence of a clear line of succession his departure could cause the type of nasty infighting which left the Liberals in disarray for so long.

I'm not predicting doom and gloom, but one should remember that pride comes before the fall. Certainly the NDP faces a greater risk of falling apart given how important Quebec is now to this formerly anglophone-only party.

  I would argue that British Columbia and Ontario are somewhat natural alliances.  Both are quite urban, have large immigrant populations and don't tend to be to too heavily tilt to either the right or left.  It is true Alberta is a different story but not all the West is like Alberta.  Yes, BC has staunchly conservative areas like the Fraser Valley and Interior, but so does Ontario, particularly Central Ontario and Rural Eastern Ontario.  Likewise the 905 belt is similiar to the Lower Mainland suburbs although the NDP is much weaker.

[mileslunn]

Quebec may be new territory for the NDP, but they haven't had too much trouble maintaining francophone support once they've obtained it. After all, northern Ontario is a very francophone region, relative to the rest of the country, and the NDP is the most popular party there. Granted, Quebec francophones are different from northern Ontario francophones, but not as much as, say, western ones.

Partially true, although the Tories did well in Eastern Ontario.  Madawaska-Restigouche, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, West Nova, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, Ottawa-Orleans, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Nipissing-Timiskaming, and Saint Boniface all have equally large Francophone communities yet went Tory unlike Quebec.  Also most Francophones outside Quebec get much of their information from the English media rather than French media.  In addition Ottawa-Vanier and Beausejour are some of the safest Liberal ridings in the country yet this has not transferred over into Quebec, so while you have a point, one cannot assume the strong NDP support in Northern Ontario will necessarily carry over into Quebec.

[mileslunn]

Anybody know when they will have the poll by poll breakdown.  It will be interesting to see this and also start making the maps like we did for the 2008 election.

[mileslunn]

Probably need to start a new thread when they come out.  I'll try to do the results by municipality and county.  I suspect Western Canada, Southern Ontario, and New Brunswick will be quite blue even more so than last time around.  Quebec will have a lot more orange and it will be interesting to see in the close races if the Bloc Quebecois still won several polls or if they were annihiliated throughout the province as it seems their support was fairly evenly distributed.  Asides from Newfoundland & Labrador and PEI, I don't think there will be much red.  It will be also interesting to see Toronto and compare it to the mayor's race last Fall.  It seems the Tories did well in the same areas Rob Ford did, while the NDP won in the areas that mostly went for George Smithermann.

[mileslunn]

It also doesn't hurt that she's pretty hot.

Helena Guergis was pretty hot, yet she lost, so although it might help it doesn't guarantee a win.  Mind you Simcoe-Grey is a pretty staunchly conservative riding to begin with.  In fact it includes much of Simcoe Centre which was the only riding to vote for the Reform Party in 1993, so as long as the right is united they are pretty much assured to win this riding.

[mileslunn]

How did Nipissing-Timiskaming and Etobicoke Centre go?  Considering how poorly the Tories did in Quebec, I suspect if Bernard Genereux won he would get a cabinet post.  With a 9 vote difference, I wonder if they can ask for another recount or what happens next.

[mileslunn]

Also, a elector asked a recount in Winnipeg-North.

Lamoureux, a Liberal, won it by only 45 votes over the NDP.

I doubt it will change, but if the NDP wins the recount there, that means the Liberals were shut out of two provinces and only won one seat in another two.

[mileslunn]

The recount confirmed the NDP win by 9 votes over the Conservative incumbent in the rural Quebec riding of Montmagny-L'Islet-Riveire du loup-Kamouraska - so Tories now have 166 seats and the NDP 103

I wonder who they will bring into cabinet now with only 5 seats in Quebec.  I have a feeling we will see Maxime Bernier return to cabinet after the drubbing they got in Quebec.

[mileslunn]

I think that's visible minorities compared to non-visible minorities among immigrants. Even a "non-visible minority" is still not the majority!

I suspect the Conservatives probably won mostly amongst those who were immigrants from Europe and the Far East, while the NDP more amongst South Asians, Middle Easterners, Africa, Caribbean, and Latin America.  Also the Catholic number is interesting as most polls showed the Tories well ahead amongst them, mind you that might be in English Canada only where I am pretty sure they got well over 30% and beat the NDP by a sizeable margin.  Also immigrants would include those born in Germany, Netherlands, and UK and I suspect the Tories did well amongst those.  It also looks like they gained significantly amongst the Polish and Italian community, while the Greek community is difficult to tell, but the Portuguese community appears to have swung towards the NDP, although the Tories probably won much of those in the suburbs however.  As for the NDP and Tories being closer amongst those born in Canada, lets remember the highest percentage of this group is in Quebec where the NDP handidly beat the Tories and Atlantic Canada where the results pretty much matched the national numbers.  Generally visible minorities in most countries tend to favour parties on the left as opposed to the right.  In fact I would argue the Tories perform much better amongst visible minorities than their right wing counterparts in many other countries do.  No surprise the Tories got clobbered amongst Muslim voters or how well they did amongst Jewish voters although as recently as 2006 the numbers were the exact reverse amongst Jewish voters.  Probably explains why Thornhill swung so heavily in favour of them and why they picked up traditional Liberal strongholds like York Centre and Eglinton-Lawrence while came awfully close to winning Mount Royal.

[mileslunn]

It's quite fun to read some of the Wikipedia articles on regional results. Some fun ones:

Montérégie

Every single seat changed party hands in three elections in the last thirty years.

Went 8-0 Liberal in 1979 and 1980, then went 8-0 and 9-0 PC in 1984 and 1988 respectively. It then went 8 Bloc/1 Liberal in 1993 and hovered around that amount through 2008. Then in 2011, it went 9-0 NDP.

Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville

Went 9-0 Liberal in 2006, then 7-2 Liberal in 2008, then 9-0 Conservative in 2011.

Both are suburbs so somewhat swing.  Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville are often known for backing the winner both provincially and federally.  In 1999, the PCs won all those ridings provincially, while in 2003 they all swung over to the Liberals.

[mileslunn]

There's no federal bellwether like Sarnia though, which has elected the winning party since the 1960s.  Not the same provincially however, as it was one of the few seats the Tories gained in the last provincial election.

I think if the NDP ever formed government, it would have to win seats like Sarnia. Not a wild thought, as the party has finished a strong second in the last two races.

  True it is a bellwether and I agree the NDP could conceivably win it, although it will be tough as the rural areas are pretty solidly Tory and even Sarnia like many of the industrial towns in Southern Ontario have swung to the right.  Since the party is more like the Reform than the PCs, it has a strong populist appeal thus the reason it does well in the industrial centres of Southern Ontario.  Also many of the blue collar workers are white males over 50 who tend to vote Conservative.   Also the Tories got over 50% in the last two elections and the previous Liberal incumbent Roger Gallaway was one of the more right wing Liberals thus they have a strong base to begin with.  It won't be until people get really tired of the Tories they will have any chance at chipping away at the Tories.  I would argue an NDP win would come through a Quebec-West axis much as Mulroney won in the 80s, not an Ontario-Quebec axies like the Liberals use to have.  BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are far more likely to go NDP than Ontario would.  Besides any NDP gains in the 519 area code would be offset by the 905 becoming a Tory stronghold and the 613 remaining a Tory stronghold.  The Tories are most ulnerable in the 905 and this could go Liberal but not NDP.  The 519 outside a few urban areas is pretty solidly Tory.

[mileslunn]

I don't think it is so much that Southwestern Ontario is hostile to the NDP as more where would they get the additional votes from.  Unlike the BC Interior and Island where you have a lot crossover Tory-NDP voters there are relatively few in Ontario.  Many Lib-Tory switchers and NDP-Liberal switchers, but not too many NDP-Tory switchers.  In the 519 area code the Tories got above 50% in every riding save the two Kitchener ridings, Guelph, the three London ridings, the two Windsor ridings, Brant, and Essex.  In the case of Brant and Essex they came pretty close to 50% so the Liberals would have to crater and have over 90% transfer to the NDP to win this.  Although these have gone NDP in the past due to their strong manufacturing base, they also include a large rural section and the Tories dominate Rural Ontario pretty strongly.  In Guelph, it could NDP as the riding is centre-left but that assumes the Liberal vote swings en masse to the NDP.  If it doesn't swing much, it stays Liberal, if it partially swings you get a split vote and the Tories come up the middle.  In the Kitchener ridings, the Tories are vulnerable, but these are not exactly your NDP type ridings so if they do lose those seats it will be to the Liberals, not NDP.  London North Centre could go NDP but London West has a lot of business types living in the riding so although I could see the NDP getting as high as 30% here, Iwould be quite shocked if they actually won it.  The Liberals could as they are able to appeal to wealthy voters whereas the NDP cannot.  The remaining three ridings are already NDP held.  My point is the Tory vote is pretty solid and if it switches it would be to the Liberals, not the NDP or they would simply stay home.  And likewise I don't think the Liberals will completely disappear nor do I think all of them would go over to the NDP.  Maybe 2/3 would, but some would go over to the Tories and since the Tories have a much stronger base here, it would help them win seats.  Now I realize a lot can change in four years and if the NDP and Liberals merged, then they could win a whole whack of seats in Southwestern Ontario provided people were tired of the Tories.

[mileslunn]

I still think the NDP win would come through the West and Quebec.  They won't win in Alberta, but BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are different cases.  Yes Ontario, voted for Bob Rae, but that was a one time case and I don't think you can assume they would automatically go back to the NDP.  Usually a party has to have a strong base in area to do well in election after election.  The NDP could gain seats in Ontario, but I don't see this as being their stronghold.  The 905 and suburban 416 will either go Liberal or Tory, but certainly not NDP.  Northern Ontario is largley NDP to begin with, while Central Ontario and most of Eastern Ontario is solidly Tory and with no manufacturing base or major universities in most ridings, not much potential there.  Likewise the Liberals have managed to stay in the lows 20s in Eastern Ontario so I am not so sure they will disappear quickly in that region even if they cannot translate this into seats.  In BC, the NDP won the majority of seats in both the 1974 and 1988 election and has won provincially on multiple occassions.  Likewise they usually get around 40% provincially meaning if they could get all those who vote NDP provincially to vote NDP federally, they could do quite well.  Maybe not win the majority of seats in the province, but at least win more than they have now.  In Saskatchewan, it is really the riding boundaries that kill them.  If they got rid of the mixed urban-rural ridings I think the NDP would win seats in Saskatchewan.  Rural Saskatchewan is solidly Tory, but Saskatoon and Regina are much more competitive, so although not strongholds, they are winneable.  Both Gary Doer and Roy Romanow got close to 50% in their respective provinces, so if the federal NDP could adopt similiar policies, I don't see why they could get similiar results.  The problem is the federal NDP is very different than their provincial counterparts in those provinces thus why they don't do as well.  By contrast in Ontario other than Bob Rae's one time win, there is no history of the NDP doing well and not much they can draw from.  While some would say the same about the Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois and Parti Quebecois have very similiar platforms to the NDP so at least there was the ideological similiarity, by contrast, Ontario has no similiar comparison.  Unless the Liberals and NDP merge, looking at the results and characteristics of the population, I think the best chance of the NDP winning in 2015 is if they can reduce the Tories to a minority, defeat them on the throne speech and then rely on the Liberals to prop them up.

[mileslunn]

I think you will see the NDP win in Brampton, first. Yes, you heard me. Indians vote NDP in BC, so why not in Ontario? The NDP nearly picked up Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Perhaps after redistribution, a more heavily Indian riding will result in an NDP pickup?

I think you are right on Bramalea-Gore-Malton.  Less sure about the other two Brampton ridings.  I think a lot depends on religion too.  I believe the Tories do well amongst the Hindus who are big in Ontario but not in BC, whereas amongst the Sikhs and Muslims they are far more likely to go NDP than Tory.  Mississauga is also an interesting case as it has a large Muslim population which could help the NDP.  Also, I think the Tories hardline on refugees could help the NDP amongst the Tamil population.  Mind you after re-distribution the boundaries will be much different and I wouldn't be surprised if one of the new ridings is a safe Tory, one is favourable to the Liberals and at least one if not more are favourable to the NDP.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown, but I am sure through gerrymandering in Mississauga/Brampton you could create a safe riding for each party.  As for the NDP bump in Rural Ontario, I am still skeptical since although Harper got a GTA bump that came almost entirely from the Liberals.  When one considers the Tories got over 50% in most rural Ontario ridings, you need Tory-NDP crossovers which I don't see.  If you look at the gains of the NDP and Tories in Ontario in the past four elections, almost all of it has come at the expense of the Liberals.  Due to the ideological differences between the two parties it is much tougher to swing votes between them then it is for each to pick off support or lose support to the Liberals who sit in between the two on the spectrum.  In BC, you have a lot more protest votes, especially in the Interior and Island thus why you have NDP-Tory swing votes, although in the case of the Lower Mainland they are pretty much non-existent.  All the swing voters I met in the Lower Mainland were either NDP-Liberal on the centre-left and Tory-Liberal on the centre-right.  In the case of Quebec, people care less about right vs. left and more about who will offer Quebec the best deal.  Besides it looks like the NDP gains came primarily from the Bloc Quebecois, to a lesser extent from the Liberals and even smaller number from the Tories.  The Bloc Quebecois was already a social democratic party so philosophically other than the national question, they had a lot in common with the NDP.

[mileslunn]

I should also add the NDP strength amongst the South Asian vote is more at the provincial level, at the federal level they largely go Liberal still, although you are right if between the Tories and the NDP, the NDP probably would win hands down.  Lets remember the BC Liberals provincially are closer ideogically to the Tories than federal Liberals are.  In addition the South Asian community is overwhelmingly Sikh in BC, whereas in Ontario it is a real mix, although I think Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Brampton is general is primarily Sikh while the Muslim community is more in Mississauga and the Hindu more in Scarborough. 

[mileslunn]

Scarborough is another area that is trending NDP big time.

I know NDP-Tory swing voters are a rarity in Ontario, but if the NDP replaces the Liberals as the opposition (in the long run, I mean), then you will definitely see more. Where else will a disgruntled Tory run. The Liberals? Not if they are some fringe party. Boom, the NDP gets some votes.

I agree you may be right, although I think it will become more like BC elections where the number of swing votes will be at the margins.  If you look at the NDP vote in BC vs. the Social Credit/BC Liberals you do get occassional fluctuations but the variations are quite a bit less than what you see federally.  You also have about 20 really close ridings, mostly in the Lougheed Corridor that are often decided by a few hundred votes so I suspect elections would be fought in those types of ridings.  Where they would be is anyone's guess, although I think Scarborough, London are possibilities.  Also with the re-distribution you could get a long more swing ridings too as the suburbs and rural areas seem pretty strong Tory, but a large part of Ontario's population lives in urban areas and that is where the growth is.  I should also note you see a much smaller swing vote in the US and Europe where you have more polarized electorates and often elections are won and lost at the margins.  Also much of Ontario's growth comes from immigration so I suspect how future immigrants vote could have a big impact on whether the NDP makes big gains in Ontario or not.  I suspect that is why the Tories are all for maintaining or raising business and economic class, while cutting family class and refugees as they figure the former two are most likely to vote for them while not the latter two.  Also as the older voters die off, will the younger voters stay on the left or gradually move to the right as they get older and likewise what about voter turnout as most who don't vote in their first two elections never vote.  I guess I was thinking of the next election, not a few down the road.

[mileslunn]

The Conservative held on in Nipissing-Timiskaming, per local media.   His margin increased from 14 votes over the Liberal incumbent on election night to 18 votes after the recount.

That leaves Etobicoke Centre's recount as the only one outstanding.

I wonder if the Etobicoke Centre is expected today as well as I heard Harper plans to announce his cabinet tomorrow.  Usually one waits until all recounts are completed before doing this or perhaps maybe Harper has already decided Opitz is not cabinet material.

[mileslunn]

The Liberals won Scarborough (and Etobicoke) in terms of popular vote, both my very small margins.

The Liberals actually won the 416 area code as well.  The NDP and Tories only got more seats since their vote was more concentrated.  The Tory vote is largely limited to the suburban 416, otherwise the same areas that voted for Rob Ford, while the NDP was mostly in the downtown core.  Scarborough was a real three way split and a slight increase for any party in votes would have meant a complete sweep.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown whether it is random or how they are distributed as the NDP has never been strong here prior to this election and the Tories were last strong here in 1988 when the riding demographics were vastly different than today thus no real comparison.  Scarborough has long been a Liberal stronghold and I am actually quite surprised how that collapsed so quickly.

[mileslunn]

I wonder if the Etobicoke Centre is expected today as well as I heard Harper plans to announce his cabinet tomorrow.  Usually one waits until all recounts are completed before doing this or perhaps maybe Harper has already decided Opitz is not cabinet material.

Doubtful.  The Etobicoke Centre recount won't even start until tomorrow.  There is no schedule for when it will end.

I guess that means Ted Opitz won't being going into cabinet.  I wonder who will go into cabinet of the MPs elected in the 416 as I am sure at least one will.  Also I heard all defeated MPs have to have their offices cleared by Thursday, so that could be a problem if this one isn't known.

[mileslunn]

The Liberals won Scarborough (and Etobicoke) in terms of popular vote, both my very small margins.

The Liberals actually won the 416 area code as well.  The NDP and Tories only got more seats since their vote was more concentrated.  The Tory vote is largely limited to the suburban 416, otherwise the same areas that voted for Rob Ford, while the NDP was mostly in the downtown core.  Scarborough was a real three way split and a slight increase for any party in votes would have meant a complete sweep.  It will be interesting to see the poll by poll breakdown whether it is random or how they are distributed as the NDP has never been strong here prior to this election and the Tories were last strong here in 1988 when the riding demographics were vastly different than today thus no real comparison.  Scarborough has long been a Liberal stronghold and I am actually quite surprised how that collapsed so quickly.

Tories swept North York, the NDP swept the old city

Generally true, although I believe York West is mostly in North York which went Liberal and the Tories came in third.  Likewise I believe part of Don Valley West extends into the old city, but for the most part that is correct.  And the Liberals did win Toronto Centre and St. Paul's, otherwise the wealthy enclaves in old city.