Canadian Election Results Thread
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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 130112 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1075 on: July 24, 2011, 02:24:53 PM »

Now that I am back from My European trip, I can also help out on any requests.

My request: everything. Well, basically municipalities. I'd also like to see Ottawa broken down by ward (and perhaps other cities).
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #1076 on: July 24, 2011, 02:30:12 PM »

Bad cities:
Guelph
Barrie
Charlottetown

Where the riding boundary and city boundary are identical, it makes for boring "research"

London is a bit more interesting, as part of the official city boundary is actually located in the Elgin riding, but that part of the city is unpopulated.

Places like Peterborough, Lethbridge, Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Sarnia, Prince Albert, or anything else with 50K people (give or take 50%) is interesting, because they thus make up a large portion of the riding, but there is enough "rural" to possible tip the scale. Other interesting cities to do include Prince George, Oakville, Burlington, or anything else where the city is split, where over a third of it exists in another riding.

Hope that gives you some ideas. The more work you do the less I need to do Tongue
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1077 on: July 24, 2011, 08:06:38 PM »

Now that I am back from My European trip, I can also help out on any requests.

My request: everything. Well, basically municipalities. I'd also like to see Ottawa broken down by ward (and perhaps other cities).
  Don't worry I will work these.  It may take some time, but I will get the maps out again.  I am usually outdoors more in the summer months so it may be a bit slow, but once the colder weather arrives, I can finish whatever is left.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1078 on: August 09, 2011, 08:37:00 AM »

New Nanos Poll Sad Sad Sad

Cons: 36
Lib: 27
NDP: 27
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Hash
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« Reply #1079 on: August 09, 2011, 09:09:29 AM »

Cool!
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DL
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« Reply #1080 on: August 09, 2011, 09:55:27 AM »

New Nanos Poll Sad Sad Sad

Cons: 36
Lib: 27
NDP: 27

No much of a surprise - the gap between the Conservatives and the NDP is the same 9 point gap it was on election night - the only change is a dead cat bounce by the Liberals. The Liberals have been ahead of the NDP in every election and every poll for the past 50 years - up until about one week before election day this past May. There are still a helluva of a lot of people for whom "Liberal" is still something they identify with and will be default response. Let's also keep in mind that the Liberals are now minus a leader who was ridiculously unpopular and the NDP is minus a leader (at least for now) who is ridiculously popular.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1081 on: August 09, 2011, 11:38:07 AM »

New Nanos Poll Sad Sad Sad

Cons: 36
Lib: 27
NDP: 27

The Liberals have been ahead of the NDP in every election and every poll for the past 50 years.

No, this is incorrect. The NDP was #1 in the polls briefly in 1987: http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/parties_leaders/clips/10676/

But, I'm sure you knew that.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1082 on: August 09, 2011, 06:55:18 PM »

Does it really matter? Things will bounce a lot in four years depending on what's in the news. Now it's the NDP with Turmel, but when something bad happens to the Conservatives.... well, they'll stay still, probably. Roll Eyes
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #1083 on: August 09, 2011, 07:32:11 PM »

It really is remarkable how badly the Conservatives suck in non-Jewish Montreal.

Mont Royal
L - 50.3%
N - 22.1%
C - 18.3%
O - 9.3%

34% home language English, median family income $112,000, two most common occupational categories are "management occupations" (21%) and "business, finance & administrative occupations" (20%). Cotler would be totally finished if the Conservatives were even at vaguely normal numbers for a place like this.

And then there's:

Baie D'Urfe
L - 40.8%
C - 30.5%
N - 22.4%
O - 6.3%

74% home language English, median family income $194,000, and it's people who choose to live in deepest West Island suburbia instead of in a fancy historic home in Westmount in proximity to art galleries, chic restaurants etc. I mean, come on.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1084 on: August 10, 2011, 12:19:23 AM »

In Quebec, the wealthy Anglos have long gone Liberal whereas in Toronto it depends.  It is true during the 90s, many of the wealthy WASP areas in Toronto voted Liberal, but those same areas voted for Mike Harris provincially and Mulroney in the 80s, whereas asides from perhaps Mulroney in the 80s, I don't think the wealthy Anglo areas in Montreal ever went Tory and even then I still think the Liberals won there.
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DL
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« Reply #1085 on: August 10, 2011, 07:00:13 AM »

I think there are two reasons for this: firstly, Montreal is an extremely socially liberal place. Surveys have shown that Anglo-montrealers are just about the most post modern socially liberal segment in all of Canada. Second of all the Tories tend to be associated with provincial rights and decentralization and if you are wealthy Montreal Anglo you probably are not crazy about that.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1086 on: August 10, 2011, 12:08:25 PM »

Angus Reid:

Tories: 39
NDP: 31
Libs: 19
BQ: 6
Grn: 4

Vastly different from Nanos Smiley
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1087 on: August 10, 2011, 08:53:09 PM »

Angus Reid:

Tories: 39
NDP: 31
Libs: 19
BQ: 6
Grn: 4

Vastly different from Nanos Smiley
  Both pollsters in the past have been pretty close to accurate in terms of their final polls and the actual election results.  Interesting enough Angus-Reid gives numbers almost identical to what the results were this past election.  Either way I don't expect numbers to change much until something dramatic happens.  Probably after next year's budget when the spending cuts are announced is when we will start to see numbers move.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1088 on: August 12, 2011, 11:03:49 PM »

Harris Decima

Cons: 37
NDP: 29
Libs: 20
Grns: 7
BQ: 5
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Smid
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« Reply #1089 on: August 13, 2011, 07:13:12 AM »

So Angus Reid and Harris Decima seem to agree. Perhaps the Liberal figure in Nanos is a typo? The other figures seem to fit reasonably, but perhaps the Liberal figure should read 17, not 27?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1090 on: August 13, 2011, 08:46:55 AM »

So Angus Reid and Harris Decima seem to agree. Perhaps the Liberal figure in Nanos is a typo? The other figures seem to fit reasonably, but perhaps the Liberal figure should read 17, not 27?

Nope, it's no typo.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #1091 on: August 13, 2011, 02:44:08 PM »

Harris Decima

Cons: 37
NDP: 29
Libs: 20
Grns: 7
BQ: 5
regional breakdown?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1092 on: August 13, 2011, 05:12:10 PM »


I don't know, here is the article: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/127474143.html

Apparently the Tories lead everywhere except "Quebec and the GTA"
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Holmes
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« Reply #1093 on: August 13, 2011, 10:06:50 PM »

Oh? I wonder who's leading in the GTA, then.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1094 on: August 14, 2011, 01:47:24 AM »

Oh? I wonder who's leading in the GTA, then.

Depends on how you define the GTA.  If just Toronto it could be either the NDP or Liberals, but if you include the 905, then it would have the be the Liberals considering how weak the NDP is in most parts of the 905 save a few ridings here and there.
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trebor204
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« Reply #1095 on: August 17, 2011, 04:15:13 PM »

The OFFICAL RESULTS and along with the Offical Report are now on the Election Canada website.

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=ele&dir=pas/41ge&document=index&lang=e
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1096 on: August 22, 2011, 09:40:07 AM »

Obviously mentioned elsewhere, but... RIP Jack Layton.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #1097 on: August 22, 2011, 09:52:09 AM »

Wow, I never expected it to be that quick. RIP.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1098 on: August 22, 2011, 10:38:18 AM »

Not entirely unexpected, but very sad. And this thread's the first I hear of it. RIP.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1099 on: August 26, 2011, 01:43:37 AM »

I knew than Yvon Godin is very popular in his riding, but not to that point.

He got 88% in a few precincts.

NDP got very good results in all Coastal Northern New Brunswick, too.
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