2011 State Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

Bremen is indeed a very weird place. I don't understand it well enough to explain anything about Bremen...but they're pretty much joke state status to me.

[DL]

How come over 2/3 go for the left.  Yes I realize the federal government is not too popular, but here in Toronto we are a liberal city and we have a Conservative government federally, yet we voted for a Conservative mayor since we were tired of high taxes and out of control spending.  I can see the majority voting left, that makes sense, but 2/3 that is a lot.  As hockey commentator Don Cherry would say are there a lot of left wing pinkos who ride bicycles in Bremen?

Fist of all, you cannot compare party vote with proportional representation in Bremen to a non-partisan vote for mayor in Toronto that was all about personality. If you want to go down that road - then how do you explain David Miller (the "socialist" NDP former mayor) winning re-election in 2007 with 65% of the vote. Using your logic in 2007 2/3 of all Torontonians voted socialist!

German inner cities tend to vote for the left of centre parties. You will see this to an even greater degree in Sept. when Berlin has elections and the SPD, Greens and Linke will probably get about 75% of the vote between them. Think of it as being a bit like he way the Democrats totally dominate municipal government in cities like Chicago, San Francisco, LA etc...

[DL]

I should add that in countries like the UK and Germany and France where the same parties that compete in national elections compete in municipal elections, there is a tendency for people to use municipal elections as a protest vote. In the UK, its almost a given that anytime the Tories become the national government - after one or two local government election cycles - just about every major urban centre in the country is a Labour Party one-party state!

[Franzl]

How come over 2/3 go for the left.  Yes I realize the federal government is not too popular, but here in Toronto we are a liberal city and we have a Conservative government federally, yet we voted for a Conservative mayor since we were tired of high taxes and out of control spending.  I can see the majority voting left, that makes sense, but 2/3 that is a lot.  As hockey commentator Don Cherry would say are there a lot of left wing pinkos who ride bicycles in Bremen?

Fist of all, you cannot compare party vote with proportional representation in Bremen to a non-partisan vote for mayor in Toronto that was all about personality. If you want to go down that road - then how do you explain David Miller (the "socialist" NDP former mayor) winning re-election in 2007 with 65% of the vote. Using your logic in 2007 2/3 of all Torontonians voted socialist!

German inner cities tend to vote for the left of centre parties. You will see this to an even greater degree in Sept. when Berlin has elections and the SPD, Greens and Linke will probably get about 75% of the vote between them. Think of it as being a bit like he way the Democrats totally dominate municipal government in cities like Chicago, San Francisco, LA etc...

Although at least in Berlin it's still open who will actually lead the government. We have a choice between Green-SPD and SPD-Green

Even I would vote Green in Berlin to throw out Wowereit. The Greens can't be worse. I would hope that other conservative voters would vote Green tactically as the less Socialist alternative, but I doubt it'll happen. (Although I suppose a lot of CDU voters did actually vote SPD in Hamburg several months ago to keep the Greens out of the coalition, seeing as Scholz is a relatively moderate SPDer...) Suppose we'll see.

[DL]

Weren't the Greens originally founded as a leftwing off-shoot from the SPD - by people who thought Helmut Schmidt was too rightwing and militaristic?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So will there be a SPD-green coalition in Bremen too ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

German inner cities tend to vote for the left of centre parties. You will see this to an even greater degree in Sept. when Berlin has elections and the SPD, Greens and Linke will probably get about 75% of the vote between them. Think of it as being a bit like he way the Democrats totally dominate municipal government in cities like Chicago, San Francisco, LA etc...

Yes, the CDU has increasing problems with large cities. Ole von Beust managed to neutralize these problems at least in Hamburg, but now that he's gone the CDU has been reduced to their usual status there as well. I suppose the CDU just needs more homosexuals who advocate EU membership for Turkey like him.

Weren't the Greens originally founded as a leftwing off-shoot from the SPD - by people who thought Helmut Schmidt was too rightwing and militaristic?

Many founding members of the Greens never were in the SPD. Some came from communist fringe groups (Jürgen Trittin for a current example). Others actually came from the CDU and soon left the party again when they figured out that the party was becoming "too left-wing". Others even had ties with the FDP (such as current chairwoman Claudia Roth who was originally a member of the then-youth organization of the FDP). And some had never been in a political party before (Renate Künast).

So will there be a SPD-green coalition in Bremen too ?

Yes. As far as I know, the Greens weren't even considering a coalition with the CDU there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bremen was always a left-wing stronghold anyway; SPD have run it since the return to democracy and have - unless I'm misremembering something - led there in every single federal election from 1949 onwards. It's a big industrial port, ffs.

[minionofmidas]

And it's economy and budget are in the sh!t because the one big major revenue-provider went bust in a huge way over the course of the 60s and 70s and early 80s - shipbuilding. The same thing happened on the Saar (with coal and iron), which was of course a CDU fief until the 80s. These events were quite beyond state government control - especially states so small. And their continued, evidently not homemade dire straits played a huge role in further entangling state and federal funding in Germany, and thus pretty much dismantling the original vision of German federalism by getting the feds involved in everything... and, given the way our substitute-for-an-upper-house works, getting the states involved in everything the feds do, too (a major difference to the situation in America, that.) Which is, really, why things work the way they work here.
Mind you, the eastern states would probably have ensured for the same thing to happen half a generation later anyhow.

[Peter the Lefty]

A new poll from Berlin:
SPD-31%
Greens-27%
CDU-17%
Left-10%
FDP-3%

This is why I love Berlin. 

[Franzl]

Berlin is an awful place...and not just politically. Think we could convince Poland to take it? Kalwejt?

[minionofmidas]

...needs...uptick...in...left...popularity.

Come on. CDU in fourth place. You can totally do it, Berlin.

[Franzl]

...needs...uptick...in...left...popularity.

Come on. CDU in fourth place. You can totally do it, Berlin.

Don't forget that Berlin managed to have the CDU in 1st place in 2009

[minionofmidas]

...needs...uptick...in...left...popularity.

Come on. CDU in fourth place. You can totally do it, Berlin.

Don't forget that Berlin managed to have the CDU in 1st place in 2009

I know - that is why.

[Franzl]

 New federal poll fron Forsa:

CDU 31
FDP 4

Green 26
SPD 23

Left 9

Government (CDU/FDP): 35%
Opposition (SPD/Green/Left): 58%

Would be a Green/SPD majority if elections were held today with a Green chancellor and without having to cooperate with the Left.


Germany is f**ked, in other words.

[Insula Dei]

I agree, it totally needs both the SPD and Die Linke to be in its next government.

[Franzl]

I agree, it totally needs both the SPD and Die Linke to be in its next government.

My only comfort is that I'm moving to Bavaria this Fall and whatever happens at federal level....we're at least immune to the left-wing wave

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Well the Greens overtaking the SDP is a good thing at least.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well the Greens overtaking the SDP is a good thing at least.

They've been ahead in Forsa polls for a while now.

[You kip if you want to...]

A Green chancellor? Eugh.

[Franzl]

A Green chancellor? Eugh.

I doubt relatively strongly that it'll hold....but I'm also relatively confident Merkel is done (unless, I suppose, CDU/SPD happens again), but then again, weirder things have happened. Look at Sweden.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

A Green chancellor? Eugh.

Speaking of that, who is most likely to become Chancellor in case the Greens are indeed the biggest goverment party after the next election Roth or Özdemir?  

[Franzl]

A Green chancellor? Eugh.

Speaking of that, who is most likely to become Chancellor in case the Greens are indeed the biggest goverment party after the next election Roth or Özdemir?  

It's never been seriously discussed. The Greens have never been in a position like now and I (and they probably) aren't convinced it's real.

I personally can't imagine that Roth wouldn't be given the opportunity if the numbers hold. Özdemir only if it looks unlikely that the Greens could form government and even then maybe not.

[JonBidinger]

Obviously there are voices that suggest that either Roth, Özdemir, or Trittin take the Chancellor-candidate position in the next election. Some suggest Kretschmann as a possibility as well. There was even a recent flurry of articles considering Joschka Fischer come out of retirement, which he has categorically ruled out. Either way, the first debate is whether the party takes the recent polling serious enough or not. Because what they decide may be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If they put forth a credible Chancellor-candidate who actually runs for the position they may get swing votes just by being in a viable position to lead a government, thus creating reality. On the other hand, if they contest in the election by their co-heads, like normal, they would cede the position, and continue to be looked at as a (albeit incredibly powerful) junior coalition partner.

[Insula Dei]

Actually, I could live with Joschka Fischer, Chancellor of the BRD, and Özdemir could be used against Phil in the Misssile Shield thread, even if it would be pretty awfull that the SPD would come in behind the Greens, for whom I have little love beyond their role as junior partners in Socialist-led coalitions.