2011 State Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

Hans is right. Take me as an example. Assuming the SPD nominates someone other than Steinbrück (and then I'd still consider my options), I would almost certainly cast a tactical list vote to save the FDP.

[mileslunn]

That makes sense.  Although on the question of bailouts, what choice do they have.  Since they share the same currency, if they didn't bail them out this would cause the Euro to plunge.  The only option would be to withdraw from the Euro and reinstate the Deutsche Mark, however EU rules prohibit withdrawing from the Euro so the only way they could do this is to withdraw from the EU outright which I have a tough time believing many Germans favour this.  A referendum to withdraw from the EU might pass in Britain but not Germany.

I'm not an expert but I don't think the Eurozone prohibits leaving the Euro, there's just no provision to do so. Germany leaving the EU is of course impossible  even more so than Greece or Italy leaving the Eurozone, as the rapid adoption of the Euro after 1990 was at least in part an attempt to make Germany have firm roots in the European Community.

Actually the EU requires everyone save Denmark and Britain to join the Euro as they secured an opt out in the Maastrict Treaty and once a country joins it can never leave.  The Treaties and EU law have made clear that withdrawing from the Euro is not permitted.  One can however under the Lisbon Treaty withdraw from the EU outright under which case EU law has no force thus then withdrawing from the Euro.  Off course this would never happen realistically.  Likewise Denmark and Britain can stay out indefinitely, but once they join, they can never leave.  Likewise any future members who join must adopt the Euro.

[Tender Branson]

New Schleswig-Holstein poll by Infratest dimap for the NDR:











http://www.ndr.de/regional/schleswig-holstein/umfrage403.html

...

It seems the Left is becoming more and more irrelevant across Germany.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems the Left is becoming more and more irrelevant across Germany.

Not very surprising. The Left is usually disregarded in news coverage, and when something is reported about the party for a change it is about the constant infighting and internal bickering which has been happening there since at least the 2009 election. At least the FDP receives almost constant media coverage, even if it is a very negative one.

The media ignores the Left and the Left is concerned with fighting itself than fighting other political parties most of the time.

[You kip if you want to...]

It seems the Left is becoming more and more irrelevant across Germany.

Not very surprising. The Left is usually disregarded in news coverage, and when something is reported about the party for a change it is about the constant infighting and internal bickering which has been happening there since at least the 2009 election. At least the FDP receives almost constant media coverage, even if it is a very negative one.

The media ignores the Left and the Left is concerned with fighting itself than fighting other political parties most of the time.

In a country where all the parties, except for Die Linke, form government somehow, somewhere, at sometime, with someone, irrelevency catches up to you since neither the SPD or the CDU/CSU (or even the Greens, who apparently, are becoming big players) want anything to do with you.

[Jens]

It seems the Left is becoming more and more irrelevant across Germany.

Not very surprising. The Left is usually disregarded in news coverage, and when something is reported about the party for a change it is about the constant infighting and internal bickering which has been happening there since at least the 2009 election. At least the FDP receives almost constant media coverage, even if it is a very negative one.

The media ignores the Left and the Left is concerned with fighting itself than fighting other political parties most of the time.

In a country where all the parties, except for Die Linke, form government somehow, somewhere, at sometime, with someone, irrelevency catches up to you since neither the SPD or the CDU/CSU (or even the Greens, who apparently, are becoming big players) want anything to do with you.

Die Linke is part of the government in Brandenburg and Berlin, so they aren't completely irrelevant, but under pressure from a very popular Green Party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems the Left is becoming more and more irrelevant across Germany.

Not very surprising. The Left is usually disregarded in news coverage, and when something is reported about the party for a change it is about the constant infighting and internal bickering which has been happening there since at least the 2009 election. At least the FDP receives almost constant media coverage, even if it is a very negative one.

The media ignores the Left and the Left is concerned with fighting itself than fighting other political parties most of the time.

In a country where all the parties, except for Die Linke, form government somehow, somewhere, at sometime, with someone, irrelevency catches up to you since neither the SPD or the CDU/CSU (or even the Greens, who apparently, are becoming big players) want anything to do with you.

Die Linke is part of the government in Brandenburg and Berlin, so they aren't completely irrelevant, but under pressure from a very popular Green Party.

The Left also tolerates the SPD/Green minority government in Northrhine-Westphalia.

However, I don't see that much of a "direct" connection between the Left's problems and the Greens' recent popularity, since the Greens draw most of their new support from SPD and CDU and not the Left. I guess it's possible that Left support is flowing back to the SPD though.

First of all, the Left doesn't really have an issue to set itself apart from SPD and Greens right now. And like I said, they are mostly occupied with internal conflicts anyway.

[Tender Branson]

Bremen election due to cement strong Green, weak FDP positions

Bremen’s state election on Sunday is expected to confirm what opinion polls say is happening throughout Germany - the Greens are on the rise, the Free Democrats in the dumps.

The election result itself, in this north German city-state, the smallest of the country's 16 states, is unlikely to be a surprise.

The half-million-strong port city has been run by the left-wing Social Democrats (SPD) for the past 66 years, and opinion polls predict that the current SPD-Green coalition government will be returned to power.

The regional election - the fifth of seven in Germany this year – could nevertheless further hurt the standing of Chancellor Angela Merkel's federal government.

Her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) are likely to be pushed into third place, while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), her allies in the federal government, are likely to fail to clear five percent and lose all their seats in the regional assembly.

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20110520-35141.html

[minionofmidas]

However, I don't see that much of a "direct" connection between the Left's problems and the Greens' recent popularity, since the Greens draw most of their new support from SPD and CDU and not the Left.

Hmm? As a share of the receiving party's electorate, presumably (don't forget the FDP, either). As a share of the former party's electorate, presumably not. Of course, the exact reverse held when the Left was gaining. (This is West Germany we're talking about. The East may be different. Then again, what would a poll of East Germany look like right now? I wonder.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) are likely to be pushed into third place, while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), her allies in the federal government, are likely to fail to clear five percent and lose all their seats in the regional assembly.

According to opinion polls, it's also within the realm of possibility that the SPD/Green coalition will win a two-third majority in the state parliament today.

And we have to watch whether any of the right-wing fringe parties makes it to the parliament. Bremen has a history of doing so, fostered by the fact that a party only needs to pass 5% in one of the two cities (Bremen and Bremerhaven) of the state to win seats.

[Tender Branson]

I'll try a Bremen prediction:

37.7% SPD
21.5% CDU
20.9% Greens
  6.1% Left
  4.4% BIW
  4.2% FDP
  2.3% NPD
  2.1% Pirates
  0.8% Others

[minionofmidas]

High postal turnout, low day turnout apparently.

[Tender Branson]

18:00 ARD Exit Poll:

38.0% SPD
22.5% Greens
20.0% CDU
  6.0% Left
  4.0% BIW
  3.0% FDP
  6.5% Others

[Tender Branson]

18:00 ZDF Exit Poll:

38.0% SPD
23.0% Greens
21.5% CDU
  5.5% Left
  3.5% BIW
  3.0% FDP
  5.5% Others

[Tender Branson]

This probably means a 2/3 majority for SPD-Greens.

[minionofmidas]

So is that a BIW seat from 'haven?

[Tender Branson]

My prediction wasn't too bad it seems, let's see if the Greens stay ahead of the CDU.

Mainly what the pre-election polls predicted.

[Tender Branson]

Gains/Losses compared with the 2007 elections:

+1.3% SPD
+6.0% Greens
 -5.6% CDU
 -2.4% Left
+3.2% BIW
 -3.0% FDP
+0.6% Others

[minionofmidas]

ARD is assuming BiW seat.

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No full results tonite, btw.

[Tender Branson]

Latest projection (based on 96% of counted precincts in Bremerhaven and 83% in Bremen):

38.6% SPD
22.5% Greens
20.1% CDU
  5.9% Left
  3.7% BIW
  2.4% FDP
  6.8% Others

http://www.wahlen-bremen.de:8080/internet/javahochrechnung/land11/index.html

Actual vote count (only 166 of 507 precincts counted so far, because of Bremen's new electoral law in which you can cast up to 5 votes):

36.8% SPD
22.1% Greens
19.9% CDU
  5.4% Left
  5.3% BIW
  2.7% FDP
  2.0% Pirates
  1.9% NPD
  1.1% B+B
  1.0% RRP
  1.8% Others

http://www.wahlen-bremen.de:8080/internet/javaecht/land11/index.html

[Franzl]

I had my entertainment yesterday. That's worth something...

[minionofmidas]

City of Bremerhaven has finished counting.

SPD 34,3% (-0,6%) - 6 seats
GRÜNE 21,8% (+9,8%) - 4 seats
CDU 20,1% (-5,1%) - 4 seats
BIW 7,1% (+2,1%) - 1 seat
DIE LINKE 4,6% (-2,3%)
FDP 3,1% (-5,7%)
NPD 2,3%
PIRATEN 2,0%
etc pp

48,1% (-4,7%) turnout

[Peter the Lefty]

Well, it's a long wait until September 4.  But its the September 18th election that will be the most interesting. 

[minionofmidas]

Bremen final result

SPD 39.3 (+2.2) 30 seats
Greens 22.6 (+5.2) 17 seats
CDU 20.4 (-5.4) 16 seats
Left 5.8 (-2.9) 5 seats
BIW 3.1 (did not stand)
FDP 2.3 (-3.1)
Pirates 1.9
NPD 1.4
etc

turnout 57.5 (-1.1)

Quite interesting discrepancies between the Bremen and Bremerhaven swings.

[mileslunn]

Bremen final result

SPD 39.3 (+2.2) 30 seats
Greens 22.6 (+5.2) 17 seats
CDU 20.4 (-5.4) 16 seats
Left 5.8 (-2.9) 5 seats
BIW 3.1 (did not stand)
FDP 2.3 (-3.1)
Pirates 1.9
NPD 1.4
etc

turnout 57.5 (-1.1)

Quite interesting discrepancies between the Bremen and Bremerhaven swings.

How come over 2/3 go for the left.  Yes I realize the federal government is not too popular, but here in Toronto we are a liberal city and we have a Conservative government federally, yet we voted for a Conservative mayor since we were tired of high taxes and out of control spending.  I can see the majority voting left, that makes sense, but 2/3 that is a lot.  As hockey commentator Don Cherry would say are there a lot of left wing pinkos who ride bicycles in Bremen?