2011 State Elections in Germany

[Hans-im-Glück]

2011 will be a more intresting year than 2010. We will see  6 elections for State Parlaments.

Here are the Dates (and the current Government)

20 March 2011 Saxony-Anhalt  (CDU/SPD)
27 March 2011 Baden-Württemberg  (CDU/FDP)
27 March 2011 Rhineland-Palatine  (SPD)
22 May 2011 Bremen  (SPD/Greens)
18 September 2011 Berlin  (SPD/Left)
Autumn 2011 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern  (SPD/CDU)

For the CDU is the result in Baden-Württemberg very important. If they lose this conservative State, then it could be a very bad year for them. Maybe we see in the election in Berlin the first time the Greens as the strongest party and a Mayor from them.

It is possible that it gives more elections. NRW haven't a stable government and in the States with a CDU - Green coalition (Hamburg and Saarland) I haven't a good feeling.

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new poll for Baden-Württemberg

Allensbach 19.11.10 (Result 2006) 

CDU  38,0 %  (44.2 %)
SPD  22,0 %   (25,2 %)
Greens  26,0 %  (11,7 %)
FDP  5,0 %  (10,7 %)
LEFT  5,0 %  (,1 %)
Others  4,0 %  (5,2 %)

This would be a disaster for the CDU/FDP government.


A new poll for Germany:

Emnid 21.11.10

CDU/CSU  32%
SPD  26%
Greens  20%
FDP  6%
LEFT  10%
Others  6%

No big changes to the last polls. The Greens are still in a all time high.

[Hash]

I so wish Canadians could be as intelligent as Germans. Sigh.

lol at the FDP at 5% in Baden-Württemberg. Isn't that one of their strongest states?

[Hans-im-Glück]

I so wish Canadians could be as intelligent as Germans. Sigh.

lol at the FDP at 5% in Baden-Württemberg. Isn't that one of their strongest states?

I don't know the Germans are more intelligent as the Canadians

You are right that Baden-Württemberg is one of the strongest states of the FDP. In the early years of this state they had a FDP-Prime-Minister.

[Franzl]

I so wish Canadians could be as intelligent as Germans. Sigh.

lol at the FDP at 5% in Baden-Württemberg. Isn't that one of their strongest states?

You think this shows German intelligence? lol

[tpfkaw]

Ugh.  Good thing I'm not in Germany.

[Franzl]

Ugh.  Good thing I'm not in Germany.

more beer for me

[Tender Branson]

New BW poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF:

39%  (-5)   CDU
26% (+14) Greens
19%  (-6)   SPD
  5%  (-6)   FDP
  4%  (+1)  Left
  7%  (+2)  Others

Majority for Greens-SPD.

It seems that the Greens have already peaked and the CDU is gaining ground too.

[Insula Dei]

More or less static compared to the Allensbach one. What are you comparing it to?

[Tender Branson]

More or less static compared to the Allensbach one. What are you comparing it to?

There were some polls in Sept./Oct. that had the CDU at 30-35% and the Greens at 25-30% or more.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

The sentiment about S21 also seems to have shifted: There are now as many supporters as there are opponents.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's hope CDU-FDP get screwed... Any chance of this leading to anticipated elections ?

[Hans-im-Glück]

A new poll for Berlin

Forsa 27.11.2010 (Result of 2005)

CDU  18 %  (21,3%)
SPD  26 %  (30,8%)
GREENS  28 % (13,1%)
FDP  3 %  (7,6%)
LEFT  16 % (13,4%)
Others  9 % (13,7%)

No big difference with last weeks. The left win a little bit.

[minionofmidas]

Breaking: Apparently Black-Green in Hamburg is over. Not really clear what ended it, exactly - of course it had been in permacrisis for the past half a year or so, but I fail to see even a reference to any kind of straw to break the camel's back. Anyways, new elections early next year likely.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Most recent Hamburg poll from November 12:

SPD 40%
CDU 35%   
Greens 12%
The Left 6%
FDP 4%

Most likely outcome at this point: SPD/Green coalition headed by former labour minister Olaf Scholz (SPD).

[ilikeverin]

How pleasant it is to see the Greens doing so well

[Middle-aged Europe]

2011 will be a more intresting year than 2010. We will see  6 elections for State Parlaments.

Here are the Dates (and the current Government)

20 March 2011 Saxony-Anhalt  (CDU/SPD)
27 March 2011 Baden-Württemberg  (CDU/FDP)
27 March 2011 Rhineland-Palatine  (SPD)
22 May 2011 Bremen  (SPD/Greens)
18 September 2011 Berlin  (SPD/Left)
Autumn 2011 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern  (SPD/CDU)

Hamburg early election is most likely gonna happen on February 20, therefore it will be the first election next year. Mecklenburg probably votes on September 4, that's not set yet either.

[Tender Branson]

What about Schleswig-Holstein ?

Will they vote in 2011 or 2012 now after the court ruling ?

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

[Middle-aged Europe]

What about Schleswig-Holstein ?

Will they vote in 2011 or 2012 now after the court ruling ?

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

September 2012 at the latest.

-------------------------------------------

First post-coalition breakup poll for Hamburg (FGW):

SPD 41%
CDU 22%
Greens 21%
Left 7%
FDP 4%
Others 5%

[Hash]

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

Uh; Spain (regionals), Finland, Turkey, Thailand, Ireland, Wales/Scotland/NI, Argentina, Peru, Denmark, Estonia, Nicaragua don't count?

[minionofmidas]

Spain (regionals), Finland, Thailand, Argentina, Estonia, Nicaragua certainly don't count.

[Jens]

Spain (regionals), Finland, Thailand, Argentina, Estonia, Nicaragua certainly don't count.

Glad that you didn't include Denmark on that list It will probably be one of the most exciting parliamentary elections in many years.
That said, I am looking forward to the BW election as a test of the Green Party's actual strength.

[Niemeyerite]

For me Spain regionals count, A LOT. people think PSOE will be f**** but I think we will give people a huge surprise. with that corruption thing in the PP, if the economy gets better, the centre of the campaign could be corruption and with that, we could win madrid (not win, but elect a president with IU) and keep asturias (certainly if former VP alvarez casco runs with PP), castilla la mancha (cospedal is a bitch) and baleares (jaume matas, former president of the islands with PP, is the most corrupt politician in the world). So, the most important region in play is MADRID. we won't win valencia and murcia because their people is too conservative... but in valencia, the president is a corrupt, and in murcia 2/3 of mayors are from PP, and half of them are proven corrupts.

[DL]

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

Uh; Spain (regionals), Finland, Turkey, Thailand, Ireland, Wales/Scotland/NI, Argentina, Peru, Denmark, Estonia, Nicaragua don't count?

You also forgot that there is about a 98% chance that Canada will have a federal election in 2011 - which promises to be very interesting (there will definitely be provincial elections in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland too but i don't expect that to be riveting to non-natives)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What about Schleswig-Holstein ?

Will they vote in 2011 or 2012 now after the court ruling ?

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

September 2012 at the latest.

-------------------------------------------

First post-coalition breakup poll for Hamburg (FGW):

SPD 41%
CDU 22%
Greens 21%
Left 7%
FDP 4%
Others 5%

Non-depressing election alert?

[Hash]

Amusing how hugely the Greens jumped after getting out of the CDU-led coalition.