2011 State Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

Actually, I could live with Joschka Fischer, Chancellor of the BRD, and Özdemir could be used against Phil in the Misssile Shield thread, even if it would be pretty awfull that the SPD would come in behind the Greens, for whom I have little love beyond their role as junior partners in Socialist-led coalitions.

The only non-CDU chancellor I could live with at this point is probably Steinbrück. Not that I'm happy with what the CDU has to offer either.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Joschka Fischer has made it pretty clear that he's not interested in the job. Claudia Roth is already out because she would be considered unelectable, and I suppose Claudia knows this too.

This leaves Cem Özdemir, Renate Künast, and Jürgen Trittin. Alright, maybe also Winfried Kretschmann. All four certainly wouldn't be uninterested, I suppose.

For now, the Greens are dealing with this issue in an "We'll cross that bridge when we come to it" attitude. This means, if the Greens are still head to head with the SPD in late 2012 or so they'll start a serious debate over this.

[You kip if you want to...]

Will we see an SDP-Liberal Alliance effect for the Greens and have their support eventually drip back to the main two parties?

[Hans-im-Glück]

Will we see an SDP-Liberal Alliance effect for the Greens and have their support eventually drip back to the main two parties?

Nobody knows what the future brings, but the Green have a very good base of voters and they are younger than the average. If the Greens don't make stupid things, they have a good chance to grow further, but certainly not as fast as at the moment

[minionofmidas]

It's going to come down to Trittin or Künast, or nobody depending on polling at the relevant time. (As in, announced candidate for chancellor).

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's going to come down to Trittin or Künast, or nobody depending on polling at the relevant time. (As in, announced candidate for chancellor).

Because of greater mainstream-ness, I'd give Künast the edge, actually.

[Peter the Lefty]

Let's also not forget that Fukishima-style accidents don't happen very often, let alone conveniently before an election.  The SPD is likely to come back to the top of the center-left bloc if it can find someone good. 
My Best-case scenario: Wowereit wins re-election this September in a coalition with the Greens.  Then, he is pressured into becoming the SPD's nominee for the Chancellery in 2013.  He wins, and does a coalition with the Greens.  Cem Özdemir becomes Vice-Chancellor. 

Insane idea, I know.  But it would be fantastic for Germany to have both a Chancellor who's openly gay, and a Vice-Chancellor who's of Turkish background.  If it did happen, it would be a significant blow to the neo-Nazis. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I wouldn't be so sure that if the SDP is actually behind the Greens they will get back above them. Social Democratic Labour parties are having a horrible time all over Europe, the industrial union workers they were created for are on decline in the first world countries. They've managed to stay relevant by trying to make themselves more attractive to middle-class by adoping third-way centrism, but in the long run trying to be a lighter and softer copy of your opponent aren't going to cut it. Green parties are on the rise and are able to connect with young succesfull middle-class electorate in a way the Social Democratic parties can't. Look at Germany, look at Sweden.

I think Green parties will eventually replace Social Democrtic parties as the main left-wing movement in many European Countries, starting in Germany. If it'll be next election or the elecetion after that, who knows, but I believe it'll happen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Social Democratic Labour parties are having a horrible time all over Europe,

It's certainly true that the past few years have been bad for almost all such parties, but it's a little questionable to use the present tense; you have to select recent General Election results from these countries, and polling/lower level election results from those. Which is a questionable way of doing things.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, inaccurate tense. The fragmentation of the traditional industrial working class (and the subsequent declines in the membership - and power - of Trade Unions and other forms of working class political power) was yesterdays phenomenon; mostly a creature of the 1980s (a little earlier in some places, a little later in others stretching into the 1990s... but that's always the way). You can't use it to explain recent electoral trends or to forecast the future.

Of course the relationship between that trend and electoral patterns at the time it happened was not as clear cut as conventionally assumed. The only countries where there was a clear and undeniable link (and even then it didn't tell the whole story, or even close to it) were Britain and Austria.

In case, just because the working class has changed radically over the past thirty years doesn't mean that there is no longer such a thing (quite the contrary) or that there is no longer a place for a political movement that represents its interests (however defined). The fundamental problem that those at the top of most social democratic parties forgot how to do that, which is related in most countries to the structural economic changes of the past forty years. I make no predictions as to whether this situation will change.

There are additional issues in Germany; I think I've mentioned most of them before. I'd try writing stuff up, but it's already nearly half three, so probably not a good idea. It's interesting, though, to note that electoral politics in Germany has returned to the fragmented state that was the norm before the rise of the Nazis (this is hardly an original or particularly insightful observation), so it's possible that what we've seen over the past decade (and who knows what else we'll see?) is an example of something quite unrelated to wider European patterns.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's not so very long ago that it was common to muse on the possibility of Conservatism dying as a political movement across Western Europe. You then have the famous examples of all the immediately-wrong predictions made after the Berlin Wall fell. Longterm predictions are almost always wrong, which is why I stopped making them - with a few exceptions - a while ago.

Saying that, one political movement that does seem to be nearing death's door (at least as a powerful force) is Christian Democracy. I think I've written that before as well. And it was hardly original then. But it's gone, or going, even if some of the parties survive as major players (as has already been seen with the CDU; which is mostly just a Conservative Party now). Which is hardly a surprise; what's the point now that the Cold War is over and European Communism six feet under itself?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's also not forget that Fukishima-style accidents don't happen very often, let alone conveniently before an election.

They don't, but the BaWü Greens were polling very strongly even before the disaster in Japan. Now a lot of that was (widely presumed) to have been because of another issue on which the Greens had taken a strong stand, but that's the way that politics works - especially at a regional or local level.

[Middle-aged Europe]

My Best-case scenario: Wowereit wins re-election this September in a coalition with the Greens.

Wowereit probably needs a SPD/Left majority to remain in office, otherwise Berlin could very well end up with a Green/CDU government.

That is if SPD/Left lose their majority, and the Greens end up on 2nd place between SPD and CDU. Renate Künast wants to become mayor, you know.

Then, he is pressured into becoming the SPD's nominee for the Chancellery in 2013.

What do you mean by "pressured"? He certainly isn't someone who would say no to the position. The problem is to get the Seeheimer's support behind Wowereit (it always has been).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seeheimer_Kreis

But it would be fantastic for Germany to have both a Chancellor who's openly gay, and a Vice-Chancellor who's of Turkish background.

Currently, we have a woman as Chancellor, a foreign minister who's openly gay, and a vice chancellor/economics minister who's of Vietnamese descent.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As for SPD vs. Greens... well, the SPD has been in decline since Schröder's "Agenda 2010" came to be. In the beginning, the PDS/Left Party was eating away their support, now it is the Greens. There are not few who think that the SPD will never manage to reach 30% in a national election again.

As for the Greens overtaking and permanently replacing the SPD... that remains to be seen, of course. For the time being, we have more of a "dual three-party system" (CDU, SPD, and the Left in Eastern states, CDU, SPD and Greens in the Western states).

[Peter the Lefty]

My Best-case scenario: Wowereit wins re-election this September in a coalition with the Greens.

Wowereit probably needs a SPD/Left majority to remain in office, otherwise Berlin could very well end up with a Green/CDU government.

That is if SPD/Left lose their majority, and the Greens end up on 2nd place between SPD and CDU. Renate Künast wants to become mayor, you know.

Then, he is pressured into becoming the SPD's nominee for the Chancellery in 2013.

What do you mean by "pressured"? He certainly isn't someone who would say no to the position. The problem is to get the Seeheimer's support behind Wowereit (it always has been).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seeheimer_Kreis

But it would be fantastic for Germany to have both a Chancellor who's openly gay, and a Vice-Chancellor who's of Turkish background.

Currently, we have a woman as Chancellor, a foreign minister who's openly gay, and a vice chancellor/economics minister who's of Vietnamese descent.

A new poll shows the SPD and the Left are moving closer and closer to a majority again.  Künast says she's also open to the idea of a coalition with the SPD as junior-partner.  Wowereit is currently saying that he does not want to be the Chancellor candidate, and wants to, if re-elected as mayor, serve out his full term.  By pressured, I mean that if enough people demand it, he may give in.  If he is their nominee, then he could pick up many former SPD supporters who were alienated by Schröder and Agenda 2010. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wowereit is currently saying that he does not want to be the Chancellor candidate, and wants to, if re-elected as mayor, serve out his full term. 

Of course he has to say it. The fact that he could be available for only a half a term could hurt him in the election, after all. It's a different matter once the election is over...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wowereit is currently saying that he does not want to be the Chancellor candidate, and wants to, if re-elected as mayor, serve out his full term. 

Of course he has to say it. The fact that he could be available for only a half a term could hurt him in the election, after all. It's a different matter once the election is over...

'After many of my friends approached me, I have...'

[Peter the Lefty]

If he is re-elected, then what will his chances be of getting the nomination for the Chancellery?

[Middle-aged Europe]

If he is re-elected, then what will his chances be of getting the nomination for the Chancellery?

Not exactly the frontrunner, considerung that he usually gets mentioned after Steinmeier, Gabriel, Steinbrück... probably even Scholz.

And then there's of course:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seeheimer_Kreis

He's basically on the leading second-tier candidates.

[Peter the Lefty]

Any recent polls from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?  Any chance of Rot-Grün there?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As far as I know the most recent poll was in April: SPD 34, CDU 27, Left 20, Green 10, FDP 3, Nazis 3

[Middle-aged Europe]

There has never been a SPD/Green majority in an East German state before IIRC. Back in the 90s, Saxony-Anhalt had a SPD/Green minority government once and Brandenburg had a SPD/FDP/Green coalition for a while. With Mecklenburg it's even tougher. The state had never Greens in the parliament before.

Anyway, according to those poll numbers SPD and Greens would barely miss a majority. Not so bad news for the SPD though, they'd still be able to choose between CDU and Left.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Mecklenburg poll (Infratest)

SPD 34%
CDU 30%
Left 17%
Greens 8%
FDP 4%
NPD 4%

SPD/CDU or SPD/Left coalition

[Peter the Lefty]

A new national poll from July 7 (TNS Emnid):
CDU/CSU-33%
SPD-27%
Greens-21%
Left-8%
FDP-5%

Majority for SPD-Greens. 

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Which states are coming up now and when again? Are the Greens still ahead in Berlin?

[minionofmidas]

September 4th, McPomm (state and new larger districts). September 18th, Berlin. Also, September 11th, local elections in Lower Saxony. Only election scheduled for 2012 is Schleswig-Holstein state.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Are the Greens still ahead in Berlin?

Haven't been since a poll in May.