Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[afleitch]

YouGov

SNP  40/35
LAB  37/33
CON  11/12
LIB   8/7
GRN  -/6

Using ScotlandVotes

Seats: SNP 55, LAB 49, CON 14, LIB 6, GRN 5

This was published on The Scotsman website (who commissioned it) but it was taken down and comments deleted. So I'm sure the figures will be re-churned to give a Labour lead

[afleitch]

Rumours...Rumours...Rumours.

SNP candidate in Eastwood has apparently conceded that Eastwood is likely to be won by the Tories. Meanwhile the SNP claim to be approaching 30% in canvass returns in Edinburgh Pentlands, that would be up 5% and may help the Tories as it is said the SNP are polling well in Sighthill and Gorgie. SNP also increasingly confident of retaining Cunninghame North and Falkirk West.

Clydesdale is busier than usual; both Labour and the SNP think that if they take a haul of the Lib Dem votes they can win the seat; and they are quite right. Tories also making a pitch.

Less action in Edinburgh Western; Lib Dems more confident of retaining Mary Smith's seat with Corstorphine being a bit of a bastion for them in spite of everything; SNP and Labour can't find the votes they need, Tories possibly moving towards Lib Dems. However Lib Dems increasingly likely to fall into 3rd in Aberdeen South and North Kincardine.

-----

A small note on Edinburgh. I have heard from some that the Lib Dems appear to be fairing somewhat better. It is very difficult on the doorstep to find a Lib Dem voter who is sticking with them, so the drop in their own vote is still not certain, however anecdotally, residual Tories dotted around Edinburgh (except in Pentlands naturally) seem to be aware of voting tactically; switchers to the Lib Dems have been noted in Morningside for example which is now in Southern. Labours 'only we can stop the Tory cuts' leaflets don't appear to be going down well with Tory unionist voters who otherwise may have backed Labour to fend off the SNP.

Now, the effect of this depends on a few things. First of all how steep a drop the Lib Dems will suffer and secondly, how many 'not Labour' votes they can aquire where needed. Looking at the raw figures they may even be able to hold onto Central (however Labour are clearly favourites here) if the numbers fall their way.

[afleitch]

The Scottish Sun will apparently come out in favour of the SNP tomorrow. The paper now sells 100,000 more copies than the Daily Record.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lolmorgothpress

(see their cover from the last election for the cause of the laughter)

---

Anyway... so far at least do we seem (the record of Scottish polls being a little dodgy at times - though better than the ones out here, naturally) to be seeing Labour boosted by better Labour turnout, while the SNP benefit from switchers from the national Coalition partners? I mean in crude generalising terms.

[You kip if you want to...]

lolmorgothpress

(see their cover from the last election for the cause of the laughter)

---

Anyway... so far at least do we seem (the record of Scottish polls being a little dodgy at times - though better than the ones out here, naturally) to be seeing Labour boosted by better Labour turnout, while the SNP benefit from switchers from the national Coalition partners? I mean in crude generalising terms.

SNP 2007 votes are going to Labour and 2007 Lib/Con voters are making up for it, and more. Crudely.

[afleitch]

Anyway... so far at least do we seem (the record of Scottish polls being a little dodgy at times - though better than the ones out here, naturally) to be seeing Labour boosted by better Labour turnout, while the SNP benefit from switchers from the national Coalition partners? I mean in crude generalising terms.

I think every seat is different; nationally polls are showing a larger number of Lib Dems switching to the SNP for example, and there appears to be a bit of 'churning' when it comes to Tory voters lending their votes elsewhere. On a seat by seat basis the picture is mixed. Bear in mind there may be a residual swing from Labour to the SNP in some seats. Labour are certainly confident of boosting their vote in West Central Scotland making some of those close seats a little safer for them. Outside of this however it's perhaps not going so well. They are struggling to make an impact in Dundee for example. The should hold pile on votes where it's not needed in the Highlands (where the difference between 1997 and 2007 is in some cases quite breathtaking) for example, which will help them in the regional vote. However, to be honest I don't have a clue what on earth is going on!

[afleitch]

[You kip if you want to...]

Eugh.

[afleitch]

Rumours again.

Some talk of the SNP focusing on Dumbarton where they feel they may be able to oust Jackie Baillie. They are however on the defensive in Kilmarnock.

[Leftbehind]

-50 in my estimation marks.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Lab = 11%
SNP = 6%
Grn = 3%
Con = 3%
LD = -1%

On Devolution, I agree with the SNP
On Law and Order, I agree with the Tories
On the Economy, I'm closer to the Tories than anyone else it seems
On Healthcare, I'm also closer to the Tories than anyone else it seems
On the Environment I seem to be closest to Labour, partly do to their not taking a stand on anything.
I also seem closest to Labour in Society.
And I'm closest to Labour in Education/Health.

If it's true the SNP is not a radical extreme left party, I'd probably vote SNP. I'm not a fan of Labour at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

-50 in my estimation marks.

Never had you down as a fan of the Sun.

[Foucaulf]

43% SNP, 37% Green, 7% Labour, 6% Libs, -32% Tories...

Until I looked into Salmond's Murdoch links. What a disaster.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Corporate press switching sides for profit's sake I am familiar with. Scottish politics, apparently not.
Would the backing be a reaction to the SNP's success or a sign of the SNP converging to the right?

[Leftbehind]

-50 in my estimation marks.

Never had you down as a fan of the Sun.

You knew what I meant...

38% Green, 35% SNP, 5% Labour, 3% Liberal, -39 Tory.

[afleitch]

43% SNP, 37% Green, 7% Labour, 6% Libs, -32% Tories...

Until I looked into Salmond's Murdoch links. What a disaster.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Corporate press switching sides for profit's sake I am familiar with. Scottish politics, apparently not.
Would the backing be a reaction to the SNP's success or a sign of the SNP converging to the right?

Every politician has 'Murdoch links'; i.e meetings. How else did Labour secure their support for over 10 years. The Grauniad is just being cheeky. To be fair the SNP have had the backing of the Sun before in 1992 as a tactical move. It has never had the endorsement of any other newspaper.

[MaxQue]

There is really a newspaper called "The Grauniad"?

[afleitch]

There is really a newspaper called "The Grauniad"?

No. It's The Guardian It's just nicknamed the 'Grauniad' because in the days of type setting, the paper was known for spelling mistakes, including calling itself the Grauniad on more than one occasion.

[Serenity Now]

My compass:

51% Green
38% SNP
5% Lib Dem
1% Labour
-52% Conservative

[afleitch]

'Scottish' 'Christian' 'Party' party election broadcast may have just broken the law...

[patrick1]

'Scottish' 'Christian' 'Party' party election broadcast may have just broken the law...

What for?

[afleitch]

'Scottish' 'Christian' 'Party' party election broadcast may have just broken the law...

What for?

It was a 5 minute anti-gay rant, the language of which was not chosen well enough not to fall foul of broadcasting standards.

[Leftbehind]

The Christian Party are a joke.

Absolutely nothing positive about them, just ban this and ban that, and the one thing that is banned - the death penalty - they want reinstating. Funny that.

At least with the Christian Peoples Alliance their religiousity has inspired an element of social justice to go along with their strong social conservatism, but the Christian Party really are just hateful scum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They even want to ban the Welsh flag!

[afleitch]

They even want to ban the Welsh flag!

Yes, on account of the dragon. Why not just stick on Jesus on a saddle like they do with dinosaurs

The best line of the ''we want tolerance'' political broadcast was "the tolerance of homosexuality should be illegal" and then a giant picture of Bishop Devine.

[redcommander]

I'm a little surprised by my results.

Conservative 37%
Lib Dem 10%
Labour 1%
SNP 0%
Greens -16%