Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

They even want to ban the Welsh flag!

Yes, on account of the dragon. Why not just stick on Jesus on a saddle like they do with dinosaurs

The best line of the ''we want tolerance'' political broadcast was "the tolerance of homosexuality should be illegal" and then a giant picture of Bishop Devine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Saint_David.svg

[Leftbehind]

I'm a little surprised by my results.

Conservative 37%
Lib Dem 10%
Labour 1%
SNP 0%
Greens -16%

They're an awkward mix between North American-type Liberals and European-type Liberals; you probably agree with the latter.

[afleitch]

Interesting snippet from The Scotsman

"SNP candidate Dave Berry claims he is poised to defeat Mr Gray (in East Lothian), quoting canvass returns which he says put him on 34.3 per cent to Mr Gray's 33.4 per cent, but Labour insiders dismiss the claims as "fantasy" and predict an increased majority for Mr Gray.

First time I've seen canvass returns so readily shared.

For the record that would be Labour down 1.1, SNP up 6.5 and CON/LIB down 5.4.

Don't quite believe it myself but a 3.8% swing (not exactly huge) would see Labour loose 14 consituency seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Probably just mind games. Though it's interesting that we've hit this point; it shows an interesting degree of uncertainty on both sides.

[afleitch]

Probably just mind games. Though it's interesting that we've hit this point; it shows an interesting degree of uncertainty on both sides.

Absolutely. I have no idea what's going on seat by seat and as I'm a civil servant I'm barred from getting close to the action

The SNP do seem to be circling target seats that Labour currently hold; Paisley and Dumbarton for one, so who knows. I'm sure flying visits by Salmond in the final week will give a clearer picture.

[afleitch]

Poll due tonight reportedly places the SNP 'close to a majority'

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Poll due tonight reportedly places the SNP 'close to a majority'

Given the sort of numbers needed for that, sounds like an outlier or something by one of those dubious little outfits, but better to wait and see.

[You kip if you want to...]

Poll due tonight reportedly places the SNP 'close to a majority'

Given the sort of numbers needed for that, sounds like an outlier or something by one of those dubious little outfits, but better to wait and see.

It's for Newsnight apparently, so...

[You kip if you want to...]

10% regional and 11% const lead for the SNP. Just nearly choked on my Pepsi.

[You kip if you want to...]

Well, Gray won't be Leader of the Opposition much longer anyway, whether his constituents sack him or the party does...

[afleitch]

10% regional and 11% const lead for the SNP. Just nearly choked on my Pepsi.

If true it would reduce Labour to a Glasgow/Lanarkshire rump and the figures, plus a potential handful of Greenies, Margo etc could give them the numbers needed to get an independence referendum bill passed.

[afleitch]

More info

SNP at 45, Labour at 34 which means an improvement for both parties on their 2007 share.

EDIT: Tories on 10, Lib Dems on 9.

[afleitch]

Alex Salmond has just ruled out a coalition with the Tories. It was never on the cards anyway; it's barred in the SNP's constitution

[You kip if you want to...]

Alex Salmond has just ruled out a coalition with the Tories. It was never on the cards anyway; it's barred in the SNP's constitution

Is it? How so? I never knew

But anyway, I'm sure the Liberals will be all too happy to be a junior partner. They'll end up as avid nationalists the day after the election.

[afleitch]

Alex Salmond has just ruled out a coalition with the Tories. It was never on the cards anyway; it's barred in the SNP's constitution

Is it? How so? I never knew

But anyway, I'm sure the Liberals will be all too happy to be a junior partner. They'll end up as avid nationalists the day after the election.

The likely outcome is an SNP minority government with a continued 'confidence and supply' agreement with the Tories.

EDIT

Full figures

SNP 45/42
LAB 34/32
CON 10/10
LIB 9/8

ScotlandVotes (keeping the Green and Margo vote the same as '07 until we hear different) gives:

SNP 64
LAB 43
CON 11
LIB 8
GRN 2
IND 1

That would be the SNP just 1 seat short of a majority.

[You kip if you want to...]

Alex Salmond has just ruled out a coalition with the Tories. It was never on the cards anyway; it's barred in the SNP's constitution

Is it? How so? I never knew

But anyway, I'm sure the Liberals will be all too happy to be a junior partner. They'll end up as avid nationalists the day after the election.

The likely outcome is an SNP minority government with a continued 'confidence and supply' agreement with the Tories.

I thought all sides were aiming for a coalition this time round.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who did the poll?

[You kip if you want to...]

Who did the poll?

Ipsos Mori for The Times and Newsnight

[redcommander]

Why have the Tories lost support? They seemed like they were headed towards picking up some seats a couple of weeks ago.

[afleitch]

Iain Gray is campaigning in Glasgow, doing a tour of seats covering Glasgow Pollok, Cathcart, Kelvin, Maryhill & Springburn. He is spending a full day in the city.

That is quite something.

[You kip if you want to...]

Finally got round to watching the debate. Does Iain Gray know it's not a great idea to be a lecturer and talk down to voters? ANYONE would be put off by him!

Alex Salmond is... Alex Salmond.
Goldie comes across as competent.
Tavish comes across quite well, if quiet, could never vote Liberal though. Nick Clegg came across well too, last year.

[afleitch]

Two new polls to give SNP 'significant' leads.

[You kip if you want to...]

Two new polls to give SNP 'significant' leads.

Atleast Ed still has the locals (hopefully)...

A bad night for all 3 parties really. A bit like last year.

[afleitch]

"Progressive Scottish Opinion" for the Sunday Mail (The Daily Record' sister paper)

SNP 46/38
LAB 36/37
CON 9/10
LIB 6/9
GRN -/5

Seats:

SNP 56
LAB 51
CON 10
LIB 9
GRN 2
IND 1

-----

Odd regional figures.

[afleitch]

And now the big guns

YouGov

SNP 45/39
LAB 32/29
CON 10/12
LIB 8/7
GRN -/7

Seats

SNP 61
LAB 41
CON 13
GRN 8
LIB 6