Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those few months before the campaign kicked off were really were squandered, weren't they?

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For the record, YouGov had Labour behind by 9pts on the 26th of April in 2007 and almost every poll during that election overstated the SNP, so the situation isn't necessarily as dire as it looks, but they really shouldn't be in this position at all ('Salmond is popular and Gray is grey' is what is technically known as a cop-out). Of course, once again and no matter what happens between now and the election, this demonstrates the extent to which Scottish politics has largely detached itself from the main framework of British politics into something a little different and perhaps somewhat Quebec shaped (even if the centrists are the nationalists in Scotland).

Which is significant.

[afleitch]

Those few months before the campaign kicked off were really were squandered, weren't they?

---

For the record, YouGov had Labour behind by 9pts on the 26th of April in 2007 and almost every poll during that election overstated the SNP, so the situation isn't necessarily as dire as it looks, but they really shouldn't be in this position at all ('Salmond is popular and Gray is grey' is what is technically known as a cop-out). Of course, once again and no matter what happens between now and the election, this demonstrates the extent to which Scottish politics has largely detached itself from the main framework of British politics into something a little different and perhaps somewhat Quebec shaped (even if the centrists are the nationalists in Scotland).

Which is significant.

True. Labour's mistake was making this election about Westminster and protecting against 'Tory cuts.' What they forget is that their strong result last year was not necessarily a ringing endorsement but rather a vote against the Tories. This election could be a delayed reaction to Labour's time in government (and polling indicates, uncharacteristically that Scotland blames Labour for the cuts more strongly than elsewhere)

The momentum is with the SNP; at this point during the last campaign it was already against them. I don't believe they are anything close to 10pts ahead; but they certainly may be up to 5 points ahead which is enough to secure their position as the next likely government. Even a lead of less than that is enough.

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I was out leafleting all day yesterday for the Tories in Glasgow; Pollockshields, Crossmyloof and Hyndland. They are our strong areas and the response was pretty good.

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

Met Iain Gray and Jim Murphy in Glasgow today. Very....interesting confrontation. I hope it's not on the telly.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I hope it's not on the telly.

I hope it is. There are way to few intresting things to watch on the telly these days

[Phony Moderate]

Was it filmed?

[afleitch]

Was it filmed?

There were cameras. No idea if it was filmed. The walkabout lasted about 10 minutes and appeared to be cut short. There was some heckling but mostly the Labour group was ignored; sun was out and it was a holiday Monday afterall.

[afleitch]

My first proper prediction; may do another in the last week

SNP Gains (based on Denver's notionals)

Caithness, Sutherland and Ross from LIB DEM
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch from LIB DEM
Aberdeenshire West from LIB DEM
Aberdeen South and Kincardine North from LIB DEM
Stirling from LAB
Linlithgow from LAB
Edinburgh Eastern from LAB
Midlothian North and Musselburgh from LAB
Dumbarton from LAB
Glasgow Southside from LAB
Clydesdale from LAB
Airdrie and Shotts from LAB

LAB Gains

Dunfermline from LIB DEM
Edinburgh Central from LIB DEM
Dumfriesshire from CON

[afleitch]

Apparently 1 in 6 votes cast at the election are likely to be postal votes.

That's Labour won then

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bizarre thought: maybe the SNP will win Edinburgh Central (and etc), but fail in some more obvious targets?

[afleitch]

Bizarre thought: maybe the SNP will win Edinburgh Central (and etc), but fail in some more obvious targets?

It's entirely possible;

There are two sets of targets; active and passive. Active targets in 2007 were Linlithgow, Cumbernauld etc, whereas passive targets were Stirling and Cunninghame North. The SNP undoubtedly did better in areas where Labour were not on a long term defensive (Labour held their marginals very well) Of course that was when the SNP had a 1 point lead. A lead of more than that means that marginal defense becomes slightly obsolete.

The seats I would say are 'passive' targets are the likes of Edinburgh Central, Dumbarton, Glasgow Cathcart, Paisley (post Wendy fall-out) and, worth mentioning this one; Carrick Cumnock and Doon Valley where the local Labour branch are not exactly singing their own candidates praises. There are also possible SNP losses; Kilmarnock was on the radar early on in the campaign though at the moment national circumstances probably mitigate this.

EDIT: The above map probably demonstrates two things; Edinburgh East the passive target of 2007 and my belief that Kenny Mcaskill will be fine; he won nearly every district. What he takes into his seat probably would have voted for him in 2007.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Wedding and all the Union Jacks-a-flyin' to knock a point or two off the SNP's poll rating?

[minionofmidas]

Onto, not off, surely?

[afleitch]

Saw George Galloway; his faux Arab accent seems to have deserted him.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'm sorry for being an ignorant, but would someone kindly explain to me, why Tories are in so poor condition in Scotland for years?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

[afleitch]

SNP still 10 points ahead according to latest poll. More details soon.

MacNews of The Screws to back the SNP, as is, suprisingly the Scotland on Sunday (the Scotsman;s sunday edition)

[You kip if you want to...]

I thought that was common knowledge...

[Phony Moderate]

Amusingly to see that the Murdoch press is now apparently in favor of a union break-up.

[afleitch]

Amusingly to see that the Murdoch press is now apparently in favor of a union break-up.

Given that in it's endorsment for the SNP, the Sun spoke out strongly against independence I doubt it

[Phony Moderate]

Did it speak in favor of Socialism when it endorsed Thatcher?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SNP still 10 points ahead according to latest poll. More details soon.

Progressive Scottish Opinion... which were they? One of the dodgy firms, I think, but I can't remember which.

Constituency: SNP 45, Labour 35, Con 10, LDem 6
List: SNP 41, Labour 36, Con 8, Greens 6, LDem 5

I think several proper polls have shown this as well, but I can't see Labour doing better on list than constituency. Doesn't feel right.

[afleitch]

SNP still 10 points ahead according to latest poll. More details soon.

Progressive Scottish Opinion... which were they? One of the dodgy firms, I think, but I can't remember which.

Constituency: SNP 45, Labour 35, Con 10, LDem 6
List: SNP 41, Labour 36, Con 8, Greens 6, LDem 5

I think several proper polls have shown this as well, but I can't see Labour doing better on list than constituency. Doesn't feel right.

YouGov is also out. Narrower lead for the SNP; 42 vs 35 in the constituency and 35 v 33 in the list.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SNP still 10 points ahead according to latest poll. More details soon.

Progressive Scottish Opinion... which were they? One of the dodgy firms, I think, but I can't remember which.

Constituency: SNP 45, Labour 35, Con 10, LDem 6
List: SNP 41, Labour 36, Con 8, Greens 6, LDem 5

I think several proper polls have shown this as well, but I can't see Labour doing better on list than constituency. Doesn't feel right.

YouGov is also out. Narrower lead for the SNP; 42 vs 35 in the constituency and 35 v 33 in the list.

Much more believable numbers, I think.

[afleitch]

SNP still 10 points ahead according to latest poll. More details soon.

Progressive Scottish Opinion... which were they? One of the dodgy firms, I think, but I can't remember which.

Constituency: SNP 45, Labour 35, Con 10, LDem 6
List: SNP 41, Labour 36, Con 8, Greens 6, LDem 5

I think several proper polls have shown this as well, but I can't see Labour doing better on list than constituency. Doesn't feel right.

YouGov is also out. Narrower lead for the SNP; 42 vs 35 in the constituency and 35 v 33 in the list.

Much more believable numbers, I think.

On a uniform swing it would see Labour slayed in the constituencies so the list would help them. However if Labour hold on in the constituencies the SNP would get a boost in the list. Either way, SNP are still home and dry on these figures. I still tend to think about 5 to 8 seats will seperate them.